NLB Adriatic league, 1.round / 4.10

[#rumenige]

1. ROUND SCHEDULE


Partizan - Krka
SAT, 04.10. 20:00

Helios - Bosna
SAT, 04.10. 18:00

Hemofarm - Cibona
SAT, 04.10. 20:15

Zadar - Split
SAT, 04.10. 15:45

Zagreb - Vojvodina
SAT, 04.10. 18:00

Budu***263;nost - Olimpija
SAT, 04.10. 19:00

FMP - Zvezda
SAT, 04.10. 16:00

[#rumenige]

Helios - Bosna


I will start new season with this match. Bosna isn't in league last year and now they are back. IMO Helios have better squad and that also makes them favorites for this match.

Bosna this year made some big changes in team squad. They bring two solid players form Vojvodina: Ivan Ivanovi***263; and Du***353;an ***272;or***273;evi***263;. Beside them they also signed American Stanley Burrell who should be their leader this year and Nikola Vu***269;urovi***263; from Igokea. They made some good reinforcements but also some big players left Bosna. Club left:

D***382;enan Rahimi***263; (Zagreb Croatia osiguranje, 23. 6. 2008)
Lance Williams (Banvit)
Brian Bailey (Turow)
Edin Bav***269;i***263; (Kapez)
Tomislav Tomovi***263;

Those were all very good players that were in Bosna already before, when they were stil in NLB and those losses are big blow for them.
All in all I think that their squad is for about -5% worse then last year.




Helios on other side also I think left some irreplaceable players for them:

Robert Troha (Cibona, 20. 6. 2008)
Jack Paul Ingram (Czarni Slupsk)
Jernej Mihali***269; (Koper)
Marijan Mance (Kvarner)
Dario Kreji***263;
Nikola Radoji***269;i***263;
Alja***382; Jan***382;a

they bring:

***381;eljko Zagorac (Anwil, 23. 6. 2008)
Alvin Snow (Kotwice, 20. 7. 2008)
Vjekoslav Petrovi***269; (Turow, 10. 8. 2008)
Nicholas Jacobson (Bree, 12. 8. 2008)

They bring some very good players like Alvin Snow who prove himself in friendlys and he was one of best, also Petrovi***269; is very big plus for Helios.
IMO they also lost around -5% if we compare them to last season.
But this season and for years ahead Helios have big plans, they want to reach European competitions and they will reach that only with good ranking in NLB league.


Four matches between teams were played and both teams won two at home.
I expect tough match, Helios is weak under the hoop, couse ***381;erak as first center is bad option, but also Bosna don't have true center beside young Emir Zimi***263;. IMO the trip to Slovenia will be to much for new Bosna team, Helios at home was always better team and biggest teams then Bosna were losing points here and I expect a tight win for Helios.



HELIOS TO WIN 6/10

[#rumenige]

Zagreb - Vojvodina


Zagreb this year will be very strong, they left some players and they bring some, but they keep most important young talents that were already last year very good and now they will be even better. Ante Tomi***263; is their best player but he is still very young and we can expect even more and more good plays this season. Players who left Zagreb were not leaders, but substitutes, so they didn't lost many with them.

Club left:
Lovro Reljanovi***263; (Cibona)
Hrvoje Kova***269;evi***263; (Cedevita)
Nikola Garma (loaned to Zabok)
Denis Vrsaljko (Falco Szombathely)
Gordan Zadravec
Jurica Ru***382;i***263;

Instead of them they bring some very good players, like experienced D***382;enan Rahimi***263; and Andrej ***352;timac. They didn't changing team a lot but they complete team with players that they need and they will have solid competive squad this season.

Came in:

D***382;enan Rahimi***263; (Bosna ASA BHT)
Toni Dijan (***352;iroki Prima pivo)
Andrej ***352;timac (Zadar)
Luka Drezga (***352;ibenik)
Robert Riki***263; (Dubrovnik)



Vojvodina on other side is completely different story. They left their best players and a lot of them but they were not able to bring good replacements for them. They lost for at least 10% compare to last season and IMO they will be at last three places in league.

Club left:

Miroslav Markovi***263; (Cherkasy, 23. 1. 2008)
Vladimir Golubovi***263; (Union Olimpija)
Ivan Ivanovi***263; (Bosna ASA BHT)
Ivan Pauni***263; (Ostende)
Du***353;an ***272;or***273;evi***263; (Bosna ASA BHT)
Milo***353; Bojovi***263; (Budu***263;nost, 11. 9. 2008)
Istvan Nemeth

All those players were very important and Vojvodina lost almost all players from first 5. Squad is completely changed and they will have huge problems in first rounds. They bring players from lower leagues and I don't think they are able to do something this season.

Came in:

Dejan Borovnjak (Partizan Igokea)
Marko Popovi***263; (Sloga)
Jovan Zdravkovi***263; (Hanzavast Capitals)
Darko Habu***353; (Ma***353;inac)
Marko Jovanovi***263; (Geoplin Slovan)
Marko ***352;utalo (Novi
Miroslav Radenkovi***263; (Novi Sad Panonska banka)
Danijel ***268;avi***263; (University San Francisco, 25. 8. 2008)
Stefan Hajdukovi***263;



Non of those two teams didn't shine in friendlys but Zagreb had much tougher schedule and they had better opponents then Vojvodina but they reached similar points. Most of mathces Zagreb played in Spain.

It is gonna be very hard trip for Vojvodina couse they aren't on level that Zagreb is, they have better organization, bigger plans for years forward, much better squad + they are playing at home. I can't see Vojvodina taking out something from this match.




ZAGREB TO WIN 10/10

[#rumenige]

Last season this league was more interesting on this forum or I am too fast with my previews?

Some opinions would be very welcome.




PS: odds droped on Zagreb (on my local from 1.55 to 1.40), average is 1.29 that is very low but stil good for combos.



EDIT: Olimpija against Budu***269;nost with some problems, Huki***263; and Ilievski aren't fit 100% but they should take some part of game, beside them Klobu***269;ar is out for 1 month.

[#rumenige]

This is my third and last pick for this round, maybe it's to many couse this is first round and always are suprises in first rounds but I will stand behind my picks.



FMP - Crvena Zvezda


Zvezda is traveling to FMP and those matches are always hard and playing in guests at FMP is one of toughest in league. Anyway I think that this year will be diferent.

Zvezda was in big financial troubles before start of season but they miracly bring big names to club, ex NBA players and everything but noone knows from were money came. But we shouldn't look on that, but on squad that they have, it's very good, experienced and ready for big matches, they keep Tadija but left Omar, couse of him they bring good replacemants and they did great job with building a team. They also play well on friendlys, last one was against Lukoil and they won for six.

Club left:

Omar Cook (Unicaja, 26. 6. 2008)
Vujadin Suboti***263; (AEL Limassol)
Steven Markovi***263; (Benetton Treviso)
Vladimir Tica (Banks Basket Kwidzyn)
Miroslav Rai***269;evi***263; (Panionios)
Marko Leki***263; (Geoplin Slovan)
Marko Cvetkovi***263;
Mla***273;en ***352;ljivan***269;anin (Samara)
Nemanja Aleksandrov
Igor Milo***353;evi***263; (Olympiacos)

Came in:

Vladimir ***352;timac (Valmiera, 22. 8. 2008)
Marko Ke***353;elj (Koln, 12. 9. 2008)
Marko Marinovi***263; (Menorca, 4. 9. 2008)
Andre Owens (Indiana Pacers, 10. 9. 2008)
Lawrence Roberts (Olympiakos)
Milan Milo***353;evi***263; (Sloboda Dita, 24. 9. 2008)
Filip ***352;epa (Zemun)
Nemanja Bjelica (Arkadia)
Stevan Milo***353;evi***263;




FMP is completely different story, they were not buying anything, just selling. They left many good players and also leaders of team and IMO this summer transfering was very bad for them, they bring only one player but left big names like Erceg, Krstovi***263;. Also their team is very young, it is nothing new when we are talking about FMP couse they are doing well with young talents but they will miss experience a lot. Average age of team is only 20 years and IMO they don't have true weapons to resist "Zvezda all star team" on derby.

Club left:

Nenad Stefanovi***263; (Polpak, 10. 12. 2007)
Zoran Erceg (Olympiakos, 24. 6. 2008)
***272;or***273;e Mi***269;i***263; (Borac)
Dejan Deli***263; (Geoplin Slovan, 18. 8. 2008)
Bojan Krstovi***263; (Hemofarm)
Marko ***272;erasimovi***263; (Igokea Partizan)
Uro***353; Duvnjak
Ivan ***381;igeranovi***263;

Came in:

Nikola Ili***263; (Borac ***268;a***269;ak)




I expect Zvezda to control match with low spread and win for about 6 points on the end, they invest to much for this season and if they will stop on first step this would not be good for future of club, couse they are stil not out of troubles.





ZVEZDA TO WIN 5/10

[_Limvolikce_]

16.00. FMP ZELEZNIK - CRVENA ZVEZDA AH: +2:0 AWAY WIN


Odds: 1.85
Bookie: EXPEKT
STAKE: 10/10


Crvena Zvedza had a very bad results in last season and due the so poor results club chanced almost all players. They bought some quality players and rumenige already wrote about it. The most important players now are americans Lawrence Robers and Andre Owens. Zvezda prepared very well for next seasons wich begin tomorow. They played first against Locomotica in Roma and then played and won agaisnt bulgarian champion Lukoil and result was 79-73. Lawrence had 19 points and Andre Owens had 15 points in that game. It seems that americans started to play good basketball very quickly. Main problem for this team can be fact that a big part of players in team are new and they need some time. But thats are quality players and i think that Zvezda is already now ready to begin with winnings run.

FMP Zeleznik is as aleays strong and quality team. They didnt chanced so many players. They played 4 preparing games and won all of them:
Uniksa from Kazanja with result 78-77,
Surgutu from Russia with result 89-82,
Lokomotica with result 89-85 and
Borac from Cacak with result 87-77.

After this preparing games, FMP Zelenik played at tournamen in Sarajevo and there won 81-77 over Split and lost 70-76 against KK Bosna Sarajevo.

I think that Zvezda is more quality in this moment and will be more motivated to win tomorows game. My bet here will be Zvezda with -2.

[stefan2008]

Originally Posted by _Limvolikce_

16.00. FMP ZELEZNIK - CRVENA ZVEZDA AH: +2:0 AWAY WIN


Odds: 1.85
Bookie: EXPEKT
STAKE: 10/10


Crvena Zvedza had a very bad results in last season and due the so poor results club chanced almost all players. They bought some quality players and rumenige already wrote about it. The most important players now are americans Lawrence Robers and Andre Owens. Zvezda prepared very well for next seasons wich begin tomorow. They played first against Locomotica in Roma and then played and won agaisnt bulgarian champion Lukoil and result was 79-73. Lawrence had 19 points and Andre Owens had 15 points in that game. It seems that americans started to play good basketball very quickly. Main problem for this team can be fact that a big part of players in team are new and they need some time. But thats are quality players and i think that Zvezda is already now ready to begin with winnings run.

FMP Zeleznik is as aleays strong and quality team. They didnt chanced so many players. They played 4 preparing games and won all of them:
Uniksa from Kazanja with result 78-77,
Surgutu from Russia with result 89-82,
Lokomotica with result 89-85 and
Borac from Cacak with result 87-77.

After this preparing games, FMP Zelenik played at tournamen in Sarajevo and there won 81-77 over Split and lost 70-76 against KK Bosna Sarajevo.

I think that Zvezda is more quality in this moment and will be more motivated to win tomorows game. My bet here will be Zvezda with -2.

10/10 LOL you must be kidding,first match,long season,many games ahead,lots time for improvement...
Prior to this match coach Svetislav Pesic stated"Main difference between us and them is that we dont have a team yet and they have".It speaks for itself and going on them with full stakes in this part of season,under these circumstances is pure gambling IMO.
Two best players from the last season and I would say in many years for RS Omar Cook(went to Malaga)and Tadija Dragicevic(knee surgery)wont play.Several less important players also left.
What about newcomers,two experianced Americans signed but never played in Europe before,young center Vladimir Stinac also joined(one of the best player in Baltic legue last year)and big prospect,same goes for Keselj(former Girona and was also coached by Pesic then)."Replacement" for Omar Cook is Marko Marinovic(FMP,Menorka,Girona)and seems to be in good form lately but far from even being close to Omar.
All in all good mix of young and talented and a few experianced players under the helm of legendary coach.I expect a lot from them as season goes on but now w/o Tadija and with Owens and Roberts still "learning"European basketball I wouldnt put a single euro on them against a team that is capable to beat everyone and underrated every year.GL

[The Gravedigger]

Don`t be sure about Zvezda.Its new team,new coach,only 4 players from last season,coach arrived only one month ago,USA players arrived 2 weeks ago,captain and best player Dragicevic is injured and won`t play,while FMP had 2 months to prepare,they have young team as usual,but never talented as now,at home they can beat everyone,so I`m going with FMP here +2.5.

I took also Krka Novo Mesto +20.5 , first match this season for Partizan with a complete team because 4 players were with national team and started to practise with the team only 5 days before start of the season,Lasme too,coach Vujosevic missed whole preparation period due to international duties also.Six players arrived this summer,they need to get into the system of coach Vujosevic and I don`t expect them to play top basketball in first month.Also important thing is that Partizan will probably change the tactic this season,so far they had strong centers and many balls were in the paint,but now after Pekovic left to PAO only Vranes stayed as classic center and he can`t play important role in the paint,so play will be probably much more faster and on 3pts shots.On todays match there won`t be Tripkovic who injured his ankle and won`t play tonight.On the other side,krka returned to adriatic league with ambitions to stay there.they have some very experienced players such as Marcelic and Petrov who came there this season,also they got center Pavic and 2 more USA players,and I don`t think Partizan can beat Krka that easy tonight,althought they will be motivated for sure to play best basketball but I think there will be many mistakes in the play which is nothing new comparing the facts that this is new team and probably new tactic.Krka +20.5 pinn is my bet.

Agree about Zagreb,nothing more to add,Vojvodina will strugle thisseason,they have young team,all the best players from last season went,new coach and poor preparation matches results,so I see an easy win for Zagreb here.

[strandns]

Originally Posted by _Limvolikce_

16.00. FMP ZELEZNIK - CRVENA ZVEZDA AH: +2:0 AWAY WIN


Odds: 1.85
Bookie: EXPEKT
STAKE: 10/10


Crvena Zvedza had a very bad results in last season and due the so poor results club chanced almost all players. They bought some quality players and rumenige already wrote about it. The most important players now are americans Lawrence Robers and Andre Owens. Zvezda prepared very well for next seasons wich begin tomorow. They played first against Locomotica in Roma and then played and won agaisnt bulgarian champion Lukoil and result was 79-73. Lawrence had 19 points and Andre Owens had 15 points in that game. It seems that americans started to play good basketball very quickly. Main problem for this team can be fact that a big part of players in team are new and they need some time. But thats are quality players and i think that Zvezda is already now ready to begin with winnings run.

FMP Zeleznik is as aleays strong and quality team. They didnt chanced so many players. They played 4 preparing games and won all of them:
Uniksa from Kazanja with result 78-77,
Surgutu from Russia with result 89-82,
Lokomotica with result 89-85 and
Borac from Cacak with result 87-77.

After this preparing games, FMP Zelenik played at tournamen in Sarajevo and there won 81-77 over Split and lost 70-76 against KK Bosna Sarajevo.

I think that Zvezda is more quality in this moment and will be more motivated to win tomorows game. My bet here will be Zvezda with -2.

This is soooo far from a 10/10 bet. You obviously don't have a clue about Zvezda, saying 'Zvezda prepared very well for next seasons wich begin tomorow'. The truth is - of all teams in Adriatic, Zvezda prepared the worst, having no team to prepare with, having only 4 players just a month ago.
Latest friendly in Pirot confiremed it - no kind of any team-play whatsoever.

[strandns]

Originally Posted by #rumenige

Last season this league was more interesting on this forum or I am too fast with my previews? .

Yes you are.
You should wait for the complete market to open, and it's still not finished.
Hitting the early market is only helping the bookies.

[#rumenige]

Yes but couse of early bet I get much better odds for Zagreb.

Anyway I know it not good often take bets early. I just want to start with previews days before to see more other opinions.

[#rumenige]

Director of FMP is very very confident saying that, they are going for best places, even winning and that they are better then Zvezda for sure.

IMO he is to confident and that may be good for him but it could made wrong impact on young FMP team. This could very likely be big pressure for them.



edit: I noticed that points line for match Helios - Bosna are set very high on Sportingbet 158,5 and all bookies have something like that.
IMO this is to big and could be very easily under, Helios at home playing very hard and also Bosna will have to da that (also their coach said).
Helios played all freindlys UNDER those line so....

[KUBOTA]

nobody speaks about zagreb covering hc (0-11). if it is easy hw, worth to take hc?

[#rumenige]

Originally Posted by #rumenige

I expect Zvezda to control match with low spread and win for about 6 points on the end, they invest to much for this season and if they will stop on first step this would not be good for future of club, couse they are stil not out of troubles.

Unbelievable what return by Zvezda and at the end result 78:84, what a luck I had guess that, but they were far from controling match, FMP payed for they unexperienced.

[strandns]

Originally Posted by KUBOTA

nobody speaks about zagreb covering hc (0-11). if it is easy hw, worth to take hc?

Well I was speaking of it, while it was still -8/

2008-10-04 Zagreb (-8) - Vojvodina by: strand ns (04-10-2008 15:04 CET)

Discuss this pick in the Bettingadvice forum

The two teams couldn't be further appart at the moment, Zagreb in almost 100% form after the Spanish tour, played equal games vs most of the teams. My home team Vojvodina lost 10 games of 12 played in prep, and losing it in style too. The team started similar to Zvezda, with just 4 players just a month ago, but their signings not being a brilliant ones, the most 'famous' name being Dejan Borovnjak, all-time bench champion in Partizan. Vojvodina without any kind of team play atm, no vertical passes, no zone defense... hardly to expect anything but a demolition today.

Pick: H, Odds: 1.95, Stake: 8, Bookmaker: Ladbrokes

[strandns]

Originally Posted by #rumenige

Unbelievable what return by Zvezda and at the end result 78:84, what a luck I had guess that, but they were far from controling match, FMP payed for they unexperienced.

Indeed, FMP 39 minutes in control, mostly +15 pt game, just to lose in nearing the final whistle.
Really bad luck for Prija's pick, looked great for 39 minutes...

[boreas04]

Originally Posted by strandns

My home team Vojvodina lost 10 games of 12 played in prep, and losing it in style too. The team started similar to Zvezda, with just 4 players just a month ago, but their signings not being a brilliant ones, the most 'famous' name being Dejan Borovnjak, all-time bench champion in Partizan.

OMG...

Who's Marko Sutalo? He probably had the match of his career.

[Tomcz]

This round was absolut nightmare for me - FMP and Zagreb made me really angry!

[#rumenige]

It was probably very bad round for all of us, couse many favorites fell today. I realy wonder how the hell Vojvodina won??

All in all that's why first rounds have reputation of NOBET round.

[Zwierzu1]

Mates any live or score of Partizan - Krka match?

[#rumenige]

They have some troubles, IMO will be soon.

[boreas04]

Originally Posted by Zwierzu1

Mates any live or score of Partizan - Krka match?

74-67 FT

[strandns]

Originally Posted by boreas04

OMG...

Who's Marko Sutalo? He probably had the match of his career.

Really, he should celebrate today as his new birthday.
A player who spent whole career in KK Novi Sad, Serbian 2nd league...last year for the first time they've played Serbian 1st league.

2/3 for me, + at the end of the day, but Zagreb loss still hurts me...