Pick Of the Day 23/9

[AllenR34]

Big thanks to our sponsor TERJE GREFSTAD!





Good luck to all!

[AllenR34]

Pick #8
(6w/1l +740)

DFB Pokal, 2nd round:

Schalke 04 - Hannover 69

Pick: Schalke(-1 EH)
Odds: 2.1
Bookie:

Wasn't able to catch better odds, but there is still some value left at Interwetten though.

It's quite simple reasoning - Hannover are missing 9 regular players through infections, and in this game they have only 14 players, of which 3 are goalkeepers. They made a request to postpone the match, but it was denied later today. Meanwhile Schalke has a fully fit team, with only their 1st goalkeeper Neuer still missing out, but he's a long-term so not a big deal anyway.

As years pass teams start to take this cup more and more serious, so I doubt we'll be seeing too many slip ups. Schalke will be definitely ready to bombard Hannover at Gelzenkirchen in front of a packed stadium of approximately 50 000 fans. They failed to win with bigger deficit against Frankfurt in the league, but it wasn't necessary, since Schalke had a one man advantage and a one goal lead at the time before the start of 2nd half. While Hannover escaped from an even bigger embarrassment against Bayer where they already had plenty of missings, now with some fresh ones like Schlaudraff and Ismael. Only few players that should be mentioned in this up-coming match are Hanke(fw), Schulz(mf) and Stajner(fw) maybe, who are more or less regular players. On the other hand, coach Rutten has the luxury of choosing anybody from the "eager to play" list and it might be a small headache.



Overall it should be a miracle if they managed to take a scrappy draw and play into extra time, but then they have no more substitutes on the bench and there energy will soon wear off! Even though history is on Hannover's side since they had made emphatic results against Schalke in this precise cup, still all cards are against them and home team should make use of their advantages. Straight european handicap for me with high stakes.

Probable line-ups:

Schalke: Fährmann - Rafinha, Bordon, Krstajic, Pander - Jones - Westermann, F. Ernst - Farfan, Kuranyi, Rakitic

Hannover: Enke - Balitsch, Eggimann, Vinicius, Rausch - Yankov, C. Schulz - Stajner, S. Pinto, Krebs - Hanke

2:0 PICK WON

[L.C.M.]

Pick #6 (2/5) (-122)

Italian Serie B
Avellino - Grosseto
Pick: Avellino to win
Odds: 3.50 @ UNIBET

Both teams, Avellino and Grosseto are teams of the lower half of table according their possibilities, but
Avellino is for a little crumd better team than Grosseto, I think that. However, in the first four rounds Grosseto reach three wins and that bring them to 3rd possition of table. Shall we observe that they gain their wins against teams as Parma (!), Piacenza and Pisa, but they are lose by Sassuolo (4:0). Sassuolo are
novice in Italian Serie B and with the most chances for relegation (together with Cittadella). I chack the odds for this match from net: the odds for home win is rise from 2.99 average (today, in the morning) to 3.19 average (today, in the evning). This is no good signal, but I belive that Avellino may make portly play and do their first win and in such way confirm a 'little crumd better in quality'. Of course, in matches with equivalent rivals evrything is possible! But we must keep in mind that acctual hight odds for home win is with regard to ample difference of acctual points of these boath teams primarly and only four rounds are finished. Such ample difference of acctual points of these boath teams can be explane with presence or absence of sport fortune rather than with existence of difference in quality of these teams, or suddenly Grosseto are become perilous squad, at all future will mistress of us.
.

2:2 PICK LOST

PICK #3
HC Geus Okna Kladno - HC Sparta Praha
Extraliga, Czech Republic /23/2008 5:30 PM,
Totals Goals (regular time)
pick Over 5,5
odd: 1.80
bokie: bwin
I see value in this one, i saw last game vs Trinec, Spartas Goalies were just unluckie scooring more in that One, Trinec GK did a good job saving some spectacular shots on goal, Sparta started very well this season, but something isn't functioning as expected, also Kladno had amazing start, watching h2h in couple of last seasons Sparta didnt won in Kladno. This is also central Bohemian derby if I'am right ? Sparta entered the season with the highest ambition, both teams are very good in offensive LINE, with Prochazka and Rucinskeho. I'am scared to take HW in this one just because of Kladnos defence witch is very shaky and can make stupid mistakes in last minutes (saw it against Budejovice) Take care and good luck with ur bets

1:4 PICK LOST

[Raymz]

Pick #6 /3-2 +375/

La Liga

Real Madrid - Sporting Gijon

Pick: over 4.5 goals 3.60 Betsafe

Maybe a little bit risky call, but not so unreal. Real is playing quite well so far, with lost points only in La Coruna. They aren't pushing too much forward, but just taking some chances and score. Defense looks good so far as Schuster is taking corrections all time. On the other hand Gijon is one of poorest team in first rounds. Their defense definitely is terrible giving opponent too much pace upfront. Sevilla got a lot chances, Barca got even more. Now it's time for Galacticos. I will be really surprised if Real won't managed couple of goals. Also I wouldn't write off Gijon goal as they managed to score in all La Liga matches, Bilic scores with quite high quality, so if Real will underestimate Gijon, they could pay with goal. There also could be some rotations in teams that even more makes things unpredictable. So why this couldn't be high scoring match. Odds aren't great on over 3.5 so I'm taking more risk here, but still I can see this as winning pick

Match is on Wednesday - PICK VOID

[nazz]

Pick #2 (0/1 -100)

MMA: Drem 6: Mousasi - Manhoef , 9:00 CET
Pick: manhoef
Odds: 3,01
Bookmaker: Pinnacle

Bets: 0
Mixed Martial Arts - Dream 6



I'm very surprised by these odds. Mousasi has a great record (22 - 2 - 1), but with such opponents Manhoef would have better (without these two loses). I can't even number one of some classy Mousasi's opponents. Manhoef has a worse record, but he is fighting against much, much better fighters. Manhoef is the best mma athlete without any doubt It's a pure fonomen how can he be so quick and dynamic with this muscled body. Such performance is really rare. He is a beast - he's very, very quick and very strong. Also his technique is very good. He simply eats his opponents. He's attacking almost all the time and he tries to dominate te fight from the beginning. On the other side, Mousasi is young and unexperienced. He is a very good fighter but he lacks experience and he jus needs it like hell to cope with Manhoef. He is also a very good grappler, but Manhoef is in this business for much longer and he trains grappling fight with the best equip every day, so I really don't see Mousasi as a favourite in ground fight. Both are quick, both have a good technique, but Manhoef is much better in the key aspects here. Odds on Manhoef raised from 2,76, but it's better for my bet. Mousasi can be a matc for Manhoef not earlier than for two years. This price is mega value, because Mahoef is the best MMA fighter in the world in this weight cathegory. I'm going full stake here without any hesitation.

PICK LOST

[Nerko]

Pick 4 (2W/1L) +255

Italy Serie B

ANCONA - BRESCIA

As a newcomer to Serie B, Ancona has started the season with 2 draws and than 2 losses. They've drawn at Treviso 2-2 and at home against Ascoli while they've lost at Parma 4-1 and at home in the last round against Piacenza 1-0. It seems that they are already finding a hard life in Serie B and that their main goal this year will be to avoid relegation.
On the other hand the visitors have started the season with 2 decent draws at Empoli and Bari and than somewhat dissapointed at home against Treviso 0-0 where they've been playing with 10 men for more than 30 minutes.
The first win came in the last round against Ascoli at home 2-1. Brescia has reached the play-offs last year but they didn't make it to Serie A.
They will probably be eager to go one better this year and to return to Serie A after few years of absence.
The quality is with Brescia and I'm going with their first away win of the season.

BRESCIA TO WIN @2.50 - PINNACLE

2:0 PICK LOST

[Feri]

#7

2/4 +100


Serie B

Salernitana – Triestina (Tue 23 Sep 20:30)


Pick: DRAW @3.13 Pinnacle


The tough Serie B will be my next destination.

By tough I mean the close and low scoring results, which follow the big "fight"
in this league.
I've been following the closest to us team in the league Triestina and they
have started quite well into the season. With a win and 3 draws (2 away)
they showed they want to be in upper tables (at least) this year.
In their last home game vs promoted Sassuolo they had the game and
the chances, but the guests managed a lucky escape 1-1. Triestina couldn't
score from the game, but they got 2 penalties and again only used 1.

Salernitana after years of third division returned to the B and started furiously
into it. they won three of their 4 games drawing 1. They are showing high morale and
with the mentioned results it's just getting higher. Their last game was the
1-0 AW at struggling Modena (0-4) and the fact salernitana played the whole
2nd half with 2 extra players (11/9) helped to take the win as well.

In spite of the fact Triestina msses their CD I'm sure they will be able to
lame the game and even be very dangerous from counters and as they've
managed to score in every game till now I'm sure they can do so today
as well, but as it is an away game and Salernitana will have it crowded
I'm sure the guests will be holding the draw more than seeking the win.

From the earlier seasons we can see that Triestina likes to play Salernitana much,
as they have a 3-3-0 record and though Salernitana shows up a 11-6-0
home record from the last season 3rd division, I'm sure triestina with this
team is able to join those draws here.

So, finally I think it'll just end up as another tough low scoring serie B game.
results 0-0, 1-1.

3/10

0:1 PICK LOST

[Muuki]

Pick #8
4W - 3L
NK Karlovac - Istra 1961

Croatian CUP 1/16 final.
Karlovac has no missing players and coach Pami***263; said he'll use the strongest line-up he has in this match. On the other hand Pula management decided to travel in Karlovac today which is indicating that they don't have some big ambitions in the cup. After winning 5 games in a row i expect Karlovac to continue their good run in front of their home fans. Lajtman is out for Pula that didn't impress in their away games this year (didn't even score a single goal) so home win is my choice here.

Pick: Karlovac, Odds: 1.95, Stake: 6, Bookmaker: Bwin

1:1 PICK LOST

[arsenalno1]

Pick #9
(2/8 -200)

English Blue Square Premier (20:45 CET)

WREXHAM v RUSHDEN 2 @ 3.40 - LADBROKES

Wrexham started out nicely enough but as the season has progressed, they are only looking more and more like a typical, average BSP side, lacking that little extra that separates the best from the rest. With three defeats in four, the only pleasing about the win at home to Ebbsfleet was the result, they are fast approaching a crisis and I am not so sure they have what it takes to find their way out of it so soon. Another cause for concern is how they concede the first goal in game after game, which reveals they lack concentration as well.

Rushden seem to have started a climb which I think won't be easily halted by any team. They're a good team but have struggled to work together as one earlier, but it is improving and two straigth wins will have worked wonders for their morale. They've got a really potent strike force which I am sure will only keep on terrorising whichever shaky defense they are up against - and the insecurity in Wrexham's is something they should really know how to exploit, so I can see them scoring a couple of goals, or even more, tonight, while I wouldn't count on Wrexham to reply.

5/10

0:3 PICK WON

[8:11,12]

Pick #7 4/6 +219

ManUtd - Middlesborough
Pick: Middlesborough draw no bet
Odds: 3,80
Bookie: bet365

The main reason for this pick is that Manutd dont take seriously this cup. Last year they loose at home to Coventry and the year before it was away defeat at Southend.

ManUtd squad for tinight:

Kuszczak, Amos, Neville, Brown, R Da Silva, O'Shea, Evans, Gray, Chester, Eckersley, Hargreaves, Ronaldo, Anderson, Nani, Gibson, Hewson, Possebon, Cleverley, Welbeck, Manucho.

I dont know first 11 but IMO they dont play together so often and i m afraid they cant win Boro which playing with the strongest squad available

From Boro site: Boro will give fitness tests to Jeremie Aliadiere and Adam Johnson after they picked up knocks at Sunderland, but Mido looks certain to miss out.

With Ben Foster and Edwin van der Saar injured, Tomasz Kuszczak is set to play in goal in a much-changed United line-up.

Ronaldo will start on the bench probably and I hope Boro can score some goals against so week ManUtd side... if Ronaldo will play last 20 Mins that will not change the things much IMO

Pick: Middlesborough draw no bet 3,80 @ bet365

GL to all

3:1 PICK LOST

[Alex Lee]

Pick 7
So far 1/5 @-313
French League Cup
Vannes Vs Valenciennes
Pick: Vannes home win (odd:3.2 from bet365)

French League Cup always not importance for the Ligue 1 teams, and we can always see surprise result in this cup, Vannes already show that they are very strong home team, won three league games in row, and totally scored 6 goals in last two league cup games, now they are lucky to face the worst away team in Ligue 1 team at home, will have enough ambition and able to make surprise here.

Valenciennes lost all their three away games this season, now they need to save more power to fight for their Ligue 1 place, they are the worst away teams in the league, already without any away win almost 11 months, their last 18 away games (include league and cup games) results were 0-4-14, already lost seven away games in row, they will feel more difficult to stay in Ligue 1, because after lost their top scorer Savidan (5 million euros transfer to Caen this summer), they can`t find good replacement and have serious scoring problem.

Can`t see Valenciennes win here, over 3 for home win worth a shot for me.

GL!

edit: I also read some news that Valenciennes face serious missing today, Audel, Ducourtious, Pieroni, Lacourt, Tiene, Danic and Sommeil all can`t play, will be another good news for home team.

2:2 PICK LOST

[mohtar]

Pick#3, Balance 2/2 +225

Altringham - Mansfield Town, Pick: Mansfield, Odds: 2.10
Centrebet

Well not much to say here. Mansfield relegated last season from League 2 and are now eager to come back.
- Visitors lost only twice this season and it was away from home against leaders Crawley and Barrow AFC.
- It is still early in the season and leaders are only 4 points ahead.
- Hosts are again among the worst teams in Conference with only 9 points out of 10 games.
- They managed to keep their place in Conference only because Halifax had plenty of financial problems.
- Altringham are most likely gonna fight again for their survival.
- Last round`s victory over weak Lewes should not distract and in fact it was their first home victory so far.
To sum up, i suppose visitors will field very motivated team that will give its best to close the gap with leaders.

1:0 PICK LOST

[dave_k.o.]

Pick #2
1/1 +65 u

Frederikshavn White Hawks v Rødovre Mighty Bulls

Pick: Rødovre Mighty Bulls
odds: 1.65
bookie: Expekt

Rodovre last time in great form, they winning last
game with 10-1, beside both teams played 4 games and hosts won
all , while guests lost all four games.

2008-09-19 Totempo HVIK - Frederikshavn 1 - 0
2008-09-16 AaB Ishockey - Frederikshavn 4 - 3 sd
2008-09-14 Frederikshavn - Esbjerg 4 - 5
2008-09-12 Herning - Frederikshavn 2 - 0


2008-09-19 Rødovre - Esbjerg 10 - 1
2008-09-16 Herning - Rødovre 2 - 5
2008-09-14 Rødovre - Nordsjælland 3 - 1
2008-09-12 SønderjyskE - Rødovre 2 - 5

so as you can see current form is surely on the side of
Rodovre

4:6 PICK WON

[lurie]

pick#5(0\4)

austria erste klasse
trenkwalder admire-fc lustenau
pick-1 (hw)
odds: 1.7
bet365

two teams of the lowest part of this league will meet tonight for a direct battle against relegation. admira are at the 11th place and they are after two wins that for sure improves the atmosphere at the team. they must win a game like this if they want to survive at the second league of austria. the visitors will be without five players, most of them very important to the team. i predict a home win!

3:1 PICK WON

[szorstak]

Pick 5 3-1 so far +200
English Carling Cup

Rotherham vs Southampton

pick away win Odds: 2.58
Bookmaker: Pinnacle

1.After goalless draw at home to Burnley when they had more shots and more possesion coach Jan Poortvliet (former Dutch World Cup winner and man who managed to win 5 leagues with various teams consisted mostly on youngsters and all these teams lucked money) blamed attackers for not converting their chances and demanded improvement. Poortvliet is a big fan of 'beautiful football' and brought with him the promise of an entertaining and flowing brand of the game. Yet the Dutch World Cup finalist is equally aware that there is a time for a more 'ugly' style of football when it's needed.

"It looked a little bit too lovely a way to play today and that is a pity," he explained. " A couple of players were too sweet, and didn't go for things themselves and we have to change that to do well in this division.

"I think when you see the game you know that there was a big difference between us and them. When we were attacking, we created more than they did and always tried to win the game.

"I am very disappointed because we had the chances to score or have the end pass but didn't do anything with it and that's a pity."

2.Southampton is now unbeaten in 2 and unlucky in last 2 games at home.

3. Rothertham is 2 divisions below southampton and beat last round completely uninterested wolves side. Today will be without full back Mark Lynch, who has suffered a dislocated shoulder and fellow defender Marc Joseph who also remains on the sidelines with a knock.
Millers' manager Mark Robins may re-call 28 year-old striker Mark Burchill to his side. The Scottish International has represented ten different clubs in England and Scotland since bursting on to the scene at Celtic 11 years ago.

On the other side Southampton welcomes back Captain Michael Svensson Lloyd James Czech international Rudi Skacel is involved for the first time this season, while American defender Kyle Davies remains in contention. Bartosz Bialkowski expected to deputise in goal.

Also Rotherham will make on sat very hard trip to Dagenham & Redbridge FC and Southamton will go to Darlington.


I will go for Southampton as they welcomes back players, wants to progress firstly for more money as their finances are in troubles and secondly to get back to winning ways in order for better morale also class difference of two divisions is obvious to me also 2 defenders are out in host team and motivated Saints will do the job hopefully inside 90 min.
6/10 as I am affraid of ET...

3:1 PICK LOST

[Love2210.fe]

Pick#6, So Far 4/5 +350

Lisburn Distillery - Linfield Belfast
North Ireland

1. Lisburn Distillery 7 4 3 0 15:8 15
3. Linfield Belfast 5 4 1 0 15:1 13

What i initially noticed is the GD of Linfield. 15:1 for 5 games is quite impressive. Furthermore they are with 2 games less in comparison with unexpected leaders Lisburn.
Anyway, Linfield should easilty win this one. Apparantly they are in excellent shape and nothing can stop them. Linfield is scorin goals like on a video game and Lisburn on the other side kept their net clean only once so far.
As i already said Lisburn`s position in the table is kind of unexpected. They do show some nice football but their loseless row should end soon. I guess visitors are the right opponent.
Moreover, h2h is totally on away side.

Lisburn Distillery Linfield Belfast 0:0
Linfield Belfast Lisburn Distillery 2:1
Linfield Belfast Lisburn Distillery 5:1
Linfield Belfast Lisburn Distillery 1:1
Linfield Belfast Lisburn Distillery 3:0
Lisburn Distillery Linfield Belfast 0:4
Linfield Belfast Lisburn Distillery 1:3
Lisburn Distillery Linfield Belfast 0:6
Lisburn Distillery Linfield Belfast 0:4
Linfield Belfast Lisburn Distillery 5:2
Linfield Belfast Lisburn Distillery 3:0
Lisburn Distillery Linfield Belfast 1:1

These are the games between those teams in last 6 years. Hosts managed to win only once out of 13 games and hardly achieved 3 draws. Linfield never lost at this stadium and i doubt they will. Winning both of the additional games or even only this one will put Linfield on the top. GL

Pick: Linfield
Odds: 2.00
Bwin

1:2 PICK WON

[aaaz]

pick 4

+104 (2W 1L) aaaz

Texas Rangers v Oakland Athletics(MLB)


Pick : Under 11 runs
Odds : 2.00 / Pinnacle

Texas Rangers meet at home tonight Oakland Athletics like a small favorite.The Rangers lost 1st game in this series expectable for me with 3:4 and tnight will bet on one more low scoring game where the oddsmakers giving 11 runs total line.Actually in last 6 meetings between these 2 teams none game finished over 11 runs.
Josh Outman start for the Oakland with 1-1 w/l record and 4.61 ERA.He is 1-0 w/l and 1.80 ERA in his career against the Rangers.
Dustin Nippert start for Texas tonight and altought he is poor this year with 3-5 w/l and 6.47 ERA against the Athletics is with 1-0 w/l and 1.00 ERA.
Take Under 11 runs here...

6:4 PICK WON