ITALY Serie A 24th September 08

[Junk Yard Dog]

[riko33]

minov,what you think about napoli-palermo,sorry for my english

[szorstak]

amazing odds for milan reggina is a joke team as always but till now anyone had off day playing agianst them hope milan wont afford such thing\

Napoli hard to judge but open game IMO (over)

[Minov]

Well, Reggina-Milan usually isn't your normal serie A match.
I think i mentioned in the past how whenever Milan plays Reggina it ends with the expected result.

I'll repeat for those who didn't read that old post of mine.
In 2004, two rounds before the end, Milan already won serie A while Reggina were only 1 pt above the relegation zone. Milan lost that match and Reggina escaped relegation.

The next season everyone expected a payback and Milan to win both matches. They did. They won 3:1 and 0:1.

In 2005/06 Reggina played well, they had no chances for European football but they were also far away from the relegation zone. Milan on the other hand were fighting for the scudetto. Two wins for Milan again.

In 2006/07 Reggina needed a win and nothing else in the last round. They'd have been relegated if they didn't win. They played Milan who didn't need any points. Reggina won 2:0.
Milan won the match in the autumn part of the season, when they were struggling a lot and were far away from top 4.

Last season again everyone expected two easy wins for Milan. So it happened.

Now Milan started the season bad, they play Inter 4 days after this match and they need to keep their strenght for that match.

I know how this sounds. I'm not saying they're fixing the matches but it's a fact that the team that needs the points more wins them at the end.
Last year i successfuly predicted the correct score of this same fixture (0:1, Milan win).
I won't be surprised at all if we see something similar.
---------------------
Napoli-Palermo

Napoli managed to take a point yesterday in Udine even without Lavezzi, Hamsik, Maggio (the best three players), Cannavaro and they played 20 minutes without their best defender Santacroce.
Now they play at home where they have a nice record of 8 wins in a row (official matches. Including wins against Milan, Benfica and twice Fiorentina).
On Wednesday they will have to do (again) without Lavezzi while Santacroce will be suspended. Maggio is doubtful but Hamsik will be back for sure.
Palermo were good yesterday and they've beaten Genoa even without Miccoli, who is expected to be back on time for this match but it's still not sure.

As you can see, there may be important missings in both teams so it makes it harder to predict this match. Napoli are a force at home but if they play without three so influental players (they'll certainly play without two of them) then i wouldn't bet on them this time.
It's better to wait for more news.

------------------
My personal favorite is Atalanta-Cagliari. The Sardinians are the worst team in the league so far. Not only because they won 0 points but because they play the worst football. Awful defending, no creativity nor fighting spirit in midfield. Only the duo of strikers is trying to do something on their own but it's too little and the opponents easily cope with Acquafresca and Matri.
Atalanta are one of the better teams of the league. Good mixture of experience and youth and very strong at home. The trio Cigarini-Doni-Floccari will be proven too much for Cagliari.
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Another match i find very interesting is Lazio-Fiorentina. I'm leaning towards the HW but it has more to do with a hunch than a well argumented opinion so i won't be taking your time with this match...for now.

[Minov]

Oh, about Juventus.
Yesterday they didn't have many problems with Cagliari. Apart from one great shot from distance at the end of the match and another chance in the first half, Cagliari were clueless even though Juve were playing without Del Piero, Camoranesi, Trezeguet, Poulsen, Zanetti, Grygera and Zebina ( not all of them would have played at the same time, but still we're talking about 5 starters). Buffon was injured and he was replaced at half time while Sissoko is fasting and he was awful (replaced soon after HT).

Against Catania Ranieri can't count on Trezeguet (out for 3-4 months), Camoranesi (expected to be back on time for the weekend match) and most probably Buffon.
Sissoko will be given a rest after playing so many matches lately and Poulsen will be back.
Grygera and Del Piero will also be back and Chiellini who played 270 minutes in 7 days, even though he didn't recover 100% from the injury, will most probably be rested.

So, expect more tinkering from Ranieri. We'll probably see a completely different team than the one that played yesterday and in such situation i doubt we'll see a trashing. A very tough away match against Sampdoria is following, so i doubt Juve players will give their all on this, considered easy, match against Catania.
Don't jump on the -1.5 HC.

Great Previews as always.
Thanks Minov.

[tipster81]

Originally Posted by Minov

Oh, about Juventus.
Yesterday they didn't have many problems with Cagliari. Apart from one great shot from distance at the end of the match and another chance in the first half, .

just a little correction, matri was really close to score in the last seconds with an excellent shoot, but manninger was superb.. anyway juve had not so many troubles during the game, but they failed to "kill" the match before the final whistle.

i like Torino +0.25 @2.01, i was thinking about a draw no bet here with chievo slightly favourite. I'm also considering to take OVER 2.5 (about @2) in genoa-roma match, two teams with good offensive skills and player, and with defensive sides not at their best.

[BanKer MaN]

How Reggina played against Roma? they have good attack?
I didn't watch the game

I want to know that because after i saw most of Milan games this season its seems that their defense is really week. Against Lazio it was Maldini and Khaladze as central defenders, Jankoulovski as left defender and Zambrotta, the only good player in this defense in my opinion plays as a right defender- he risked the lazio goal a lot and even scored a goal.
But its look like any team with avergae-good attack like Genoa, Lazio and others can score against this poor defense. Lazio's counter attacks were really dangerous and im afraid it going to be the same VS Reggina.

A man who didn't see the match against Lazio and will see the 4-1 score maybe will think Milan controled the game, made a lot of chances and trashed Lazio's defense. But 3 of the goals were totally individual and it seemed like all the shots of Milan gone into Lazio's goal.
For me now Milan looks like a team which can beat only really weak opponents (F.C Zurich for example).

So you think Reggina can hit Milan on counter attacks like Bologna, Genoa and Lazio did?

Sorry for my bad english...

[Rick]

Very good insight of the matches i will like to bet on, Thanks again.

[Moltrasino]

I watched Reggina's match vs Roma, and I dont mind telling you what I saw.
It was the usual match between one of the weakest and one of the strongest teams in the league. The weakest try to defend and they do it well, until the big team score - in the case a bit of a lucky goal from Panucci after a corner - and then the match literally finishes.

Reggina had no real chances for the entire match, and it was quite obvious, that they had come to Roma in order to try to sneak away with one point. They did put on Brienza after the first 45 mins, but he could make no difference, and then Roma scored their second goal after just a few minutes in 2nd half, it was just a matter of getting the match overwith.

Roma scored the 3rd deep into injury time after a Totti freekick, and I know it made one of the BA Serie A tipsters very happy

[dego]

Minov what do you think about Genoa - Roma

Roma have many injured players,like:Mexes.Juan,Aqulani,Baptista...

[Minov]

Originally Posted by dego

Minov what do you think about Genoa - Roma

Roma have many injured players,like:Mexes.Juan,Aqulani,Baptista...

Mexes should play.
As things stand atm Roma will have to do without both Pizarro and Aquilani, which is a huge blow. Roma's main quality is the great and fast movement of the ball, where the playmaker starts the action and usually gives the decisive pass. If both Pizarro and Aquilani are out Roma won't be able to play their usual game.
Totti isn't match fit yet and it's expected Spalletti to keep him on the bench once again.

Genoa are a nice and well organized unit. The latest news is that Gasbarroni recovered and the same team that comfortably won against Milan will face Roma on Wednesday.

Roma's backline will have hands full with Gasbarroni, Sculi and especially with Diego Milito who is showing great form and is incredibly hard to stop.

It's a tough question to answer how will Roma react after finally winning a competitive match. I don't know if the crisis time is over or Roma will believe their own hype, like teams usually do after a big win, and not win for another 2-3 matches.

It's a big test for Roma because Genoa away is where lots of big teams may lose points this year.
Imo, both teams have equal chances to win, which makes the HW odds Bet365 offered earlier today (4.20) really valuable.

[alfredo.jack]

everybody talk about juve and roma but What about Sampdoria...
I think they are too strong for Siena even when they playing at home.If Samp are without any important missings then i´m sure of viktory...
and minov i don´t want to disagree but i think Cagliari will not loose
this match.Even when they playing realy bad at the moment.They have
never lost against this team...maybe í´m wrong but its just my feeling.
be carefull...

[Ross]

My preview from www.goalwin.net


Coming from a the first defeat of their season, former league leaders Atalanta immediately have the chance to bounce back by facing last-placed Cagliari, the lone Serie A team still without a single point. The hosts are definitely the better team and should make it, although the Sardinians are better than the table says: at 1,78, the home win looks like a good choice. Veteran striker Vieri is the lone unavailable player for the hosts, while Cagliari coach Allegri has the full roster at his disposal.

Bologna’s great start to the season already seems a distant memory: following the opening round win in San Siro over Milan, the newly promoted Felsinei have collected two straight defeats and their job in this midweek round doesn’t look any easier: Udinese are the better team, but their last two outings haven’t been that good either. All in all, a draw looks like a good choice here. Full roster for the hosts, while Udinese are always without regular defenders Zapata and Felipe.

A difficult match to predict is Chievo-Torino: the hosts have been looking very inconsistent in this first part of the season, and come from two completely different performances in as many away matches. If they will be the same team who collected a deserved draw on Sunday against Sampdoria they definitely have a good chance to collect their second home win: Torino keep on playing with a very offensive attitude, and this could be a suicide against a quick and well organized team like the Flying Donkeys. No important missing by either side, although Torino skipper and leader Rosina is doubtful, and home win for me.

Genoa-Roma is even harder to predict, at least in terms of the final outcome. The hosts are a great home team, but it’s hard to ignore their two defeats in as many trips; on their part, Roma come from their fisrt of the season and will be eager to put their nightmarish start behind them, but coach Spalletti keeps on missing way too many players (Juan, Tonetto, Pizarro, Julio Baptista, Aquilani) and Totti will likely start on the bench. Two offensive-minded teams, two sometimes leaky defensive lines: this looks like an over.

On paper, league co-leaders Inter should have a very easy task: Mourinho’s men host newly promoted Lecce in San Siro, and the huge difference between the two teams in terms of talent and physical power should make this match a one-sided affair. The Nerazzurri, though, tend to struggle against teams that defend in 11 in their half, like Lecce will surely do, and could find it more difficult than expected to break the guest’ wall. Maybe they will do it only in the second half: a bet on the X/1 HT/FT, at a gorgeous 4.90, could be a good choice. Inter will miss Samuel, Jimenez, Maxwell and Muntari, no important absentees by Lecce’s side.

Just like their arch-rivals, Juventus are expected to confirm the Serie A leadership as they host Catania in Turin. Their task, though, won’t be that easy: the Etnei had a superb start to the season, with two convincing home wins (against tough opponents like Genoa and former league leaders Atalanta) and an unlucky defeat in San Siro against Inter. Coach Zenga has built a superbly organized side, and we have to keep in mind that Juve’s infirmary is crowded to say the least: Buffon, Trezeguet, Camoranesi, Zanetti and Zebina are all sidelined, while the guests can field their best eleven. With these premises, a small punt on the draw lor, even better, on Catania +1,5 AH looks like a very good choice.

Another tough one to call is definitely Lazio-Fiorentina: following their great start, the hosts were brought back on earth on Sunday evening by Milan, who hammered them 4-1, while Fiorentina finally collected their first win thanks to the usual goal by Alberto Gilardino. Anything looks possible here, on paper Fiorentina are slightly better but Lazio have the home field advantage: a draw is the most likely result. Lazio still without striker Rocchi (but Serie A topscorer Zarate is replacing him pretty well…), full roster for the Viola.

Apart from league leaders Inter and Juventus, Napoli are the lone undefeated Serie A team, and will be trying to consolidate their position behind the league giants by facing Palermo at the Stadio San Paolo. If this match took place three weeks ago, when Palermo were in a complete mess and Napoli in a great early shape, the home win would have been an almost sure call. The guests, however, have been looking great under new coach Ballardini, collecting two straight wins, and will certainly give Reja’s men a hard time. Despite that, Napoli are the better team, especially in front of their hot fans, and the price on the home win is too tempting. Palermo will miss their bets striker Miccoli, while Napoli should recover Lavezzi at least for the bench.

Are Milan finally back? It’s too early to say, but the Rossoneri were quite impressive in their 4-1 demolishing of Lazio, as they were finally able to exploit their impressive amount of offensive talent.. Reggina have only one point after three rounds, and even though they are a very good home team I just can’t see them standing the pressure of a much better and more motivated team, who need this win like water in the desert (especially with city rivals Inter hosting Lecce). A few unavailable players by both sides, but Milan have the substitutes…away win for me.

Finally, Siena-Sampdoria: another tough one to call, as Siena have been looking pretty solid so far, even though their schedule hasn’t been tough at all, while the Blucerchiati didn’t confirm their very good opening round performance against Inter and only collected one point in the following two outings. It should be a very tight match, and the under 2,5 goals looks more than likely.

[Buk]

Originally Posted by dego

Minov what do you think about Genoa - Roma

Roma have many injured players,like:Mexes.Juan,Aqulani,Baptista...

Mexes should play.
As things stand atm Roma will have to do without both Pizarro and Aquilani, which is a huge blow. Roma's main quality is the great and fast movement of the ball, where the playmaker starts the action and usually gives the decisive pass. If both Pizarro and Aquilani are out Roma won't be able to play their usual game.
Totti isn't match fit yet and it's expected Spalletti to keep him on the bench once again.

Totti is definitevely out he hasn't been convocated for the match
Aquilani instead is going better, he has been convocated but his presence is still a question mark

[#rumenige]

I am thinking of taking bet Catania to score at 2.00, what seems to me as pretty good odds. Juventus will be without some players with Buffon for me as biggest missing and Catania is playing well at start and they scored on every match until now, but I don't have enough infos yet.

Any opinions?

[infomkd]

Originally Posted by #rumenige

I am thinking of taking bet Catania to score at 2.00, what seems to me as pretty good odds. Juventus will be without some players with Buffon for me as biggest missing and Catania is playing well at start and they scored on every match until now, but I don't have enough infos yet.

Any opinions?

You have my vote, also 2:1 cs is not imposible... :idea:

[master_from_Italy]

Inter-Lecce should be an over, I think that Inter will go full in the first time and later will try to hold the energie for next derby vs Milan. Adriano, Balotelli, Quaresma and Mancini ( Ibra probably don't play) needs and can score the net, Lecce ( if the match is 2-0 or 3-0) can go in score in the last ten minutes. Similar the match Torino-Inter. Odds for over 2.5 are very good.

Chievo-Torino I have seen the match Sampdoria-Chievo and in the last ten minutes the Chievo went close to score. They runned more than Sampdoria. I have seen a good condition. The Torino will try to take three points after the defeat against Inter and so my prediction is for an open game. Both in score and Home Win ( 2-1 or 3-1)

Reggina-Milan The Milan, now, play better without Pirlo because the strong midfielder was out condition. The rossoneri, howewere, needs to attack because the team is so structured. Reggina is very poor but at home is capable to score a gol. Over 2.5 and Away Win ( but whit minimun stake)

Genoa-Roma After the defeat against Palermo and Cluy I don't think that is necessary only one good match against Reggina for the Rome. I think that Genoa can win, Marassi will be a strong stadium for all and the giallorossi should be in great condition for win there. Do you think the Roma in great condition? Home win

Napoli-Palermo Strange match. Napoli at home is very strong and come back Lavezzi. Clear favourite but be carefull because Ballardini ( new Palermo's coach) doing a good work. If somebody score in first time so sure this match is over. Over 2.5

Atalanta-Cagliari Atalanta is clear fovourite because Cagliari seems very poor but the tradition is favorable to sardinias. Howevere Atalanta should to win. Home win

Bologna-Udinese After the match against Milan the Bologna played very poor match, expecially at home. I don't see how Bologna can win this match. Udinese is a solid team. Away win (minimun stake), Udinese not to loose (maximum stake)

Lazio-Fiorentina Zarate, Pandev, Gilardino and Mutu. But also Montolivo, Rocchi, Pazzini......both to score maximum stack.

Juventus-Catania Juve clear favourite but I have seen the match Inter-Catania and.......I' dont risk the home win for 1.25. Not bet, absolutely.

Siena-SampdoriaThe Samp looking for the first three points. Will attack, sure. Siena at home play very quick, open. Could be an over but whit minimun stake.

Enjoy and good lucky.

P.S. Sorry for my english but I never study it.

[di canio]

Atalanta vs Cagliari.....Atalanta is sure favorite here, but the question is if Caglari will stop their defeats at this match....Atalanta lost very hard at catania and they had 3 low scoring games till now....Caglari lost to juventus last week and they are under big pressure after 3 defeats and 0 points....I'm not very sure about Atalanta's win here because Caglari are desperate for points, but considering that Atalanta is no more the team who scored a lot of goals last season and played atacking football, my pick is under 2.5....1.75...6/10

Bologna vs Udinese...Bologna is still playing like a serie b team, despite their sensational win over milan...If they concede a goal,they just dont know how to get an equalizer, it was obviosly against fiorentina and atalanta.... On the other hand, udinese is a good team, but not in best shape, after a 0-0 with napoli at home....But let's not forget that great win from dortmund that shows the real power of udinese when they play away and have full concentration....IMHO i think the odds fot AW are great and deserve a special attention...3.00 ....7/10 GL!

[Minov]

Originally Posted by di canio

considering that Atalanta is no more the team who scored a lot of goals last season and played atacking football, my pick is under 2.5....1.75...6/10

Atalanta has almost the same team as last year. Only one or two changes in the starting line-up compared to last season (one in defense, one in midfield). They have the same coach as last year, Luigi Del Neri, and he was always known for his open, attacking playing style.
So, maybe the first three matches were just a coincidence. I doubt Del Neri changed his football physlosophy now when he's 58 and since the team is the same as last year, he didn't even have to change anything.

I'm not disagreeing with your pick. This was just a minor correction

[Minov]

Prandelli (Fiorentina's coach) :

“Against Lazio we'll see the ones who were not on the field on Sunday, so we have a squad that is always fresh and ready to get a result in any arena,” said Prandelli.

“Gilardino is in great shape, but it is impossible for him to play 70 games this season.”
--------------

As expected, lots of those who played on Wednesday in Lyon and on Sunday in serie A will be rested tomorrow.
Gilardino looks likely to be rested while Mutu will return after missing the last match.
So, there is a big chance that, apart from Gilardino, Kuzmanovic, Felipe Melo and perhaps even Kroldrup to be given a rest.

[kamei24]

Jovetic, Jovetic, Jovetic! Whole Montenegro wants him to play.

Not a bad debut for him against Bologna, but he can do much better. Still he's only 18. ops:

Back to betting, I'll try Atalanta small stakes (just cause its midweek round and I'm not really fond of it - strange results sometimes and games hard to predict). Atalanta with good start, everything seems working fine with them. Cagliari till they don't change coach won't be able to produce nothing imo. A bit strange cause it's the same team as last year which were kicking asses in the second part of the season, but right now they are in total mess, not even a shadow of that team. Nothing of that team spirit they had under Balardini.

Seems like he has some magic stick, look at him at Palermo now first two games with them and they resurected totally. I couldn't believe I'm watching Palermo playing so good... I mean even Cavani started scoring! And not just but looks so confident right now, that is scary...

[szorstak]

Originally Posted by Ross

My preview from www.goalwin.net


Genoa-Roma is even harder to predict, at least in terms of the final outcome. The hosts are a great home team, but it’s hard to ignore their two defeats in as many trips; on their part, Roma come from their fisrt of the season and will be eager to put their nightmarish start behind them, but coach Spalletti keeps on missing way too many players (Juan, Tonetto, Pizarro, Julio Baptista, Aquilani) and Totti will likely start on the bench. Two offensive-minded teams, two sometimes leaky defensive lines: this looks like an over.

IMO best bet here is both to score over as well but after napoli last game I will back it up with a draw IMO Roma in current form is egual to big spender which Genoa is this season


both to score 8/10 draw 6/10

Are Milan finally back? It’s too early to say, but the Rossoneri were quite impressive in their 4-1 demolishing of Lazio, as they were finally able to exploit their impressive amount of offensive talent.. Reggina have only one point after three rounds, and even though they are a very good home team I just can’t see them standing the pressure of a much better and more motivated team, who need this win like water in the desert (especially with city rivals Inter hosting Lecce). A few unavailable players by both sides, but Milan have the substitutes…away win for me.

agree here but Milan wont push much they will be happy with ordinary win also both teams are friends so why to kill friends? also ht/ft thing possible as Ancelotti probaly will start with ronaldinho and Scheva in attack and how they play you can see at Genoa or vs Bologna.
so ht 1ft2 can be tried.

the best here is Milan to win by one goal

Just like their arch-rivals, Juventus are expected to confirm the Serie A leadership as they host Catania in Turin. Their task, though, won’t be that easy: the Etnei had a superb start to the season, with two convincing home wins (against tough opponents like Genoa and former league leaders Atalanta) and an unlucky defeat in San Siro against Inter. Coach Zenga has built a superbly organized side, and we have to keep in mind that Juve’s infirmary is crowded to say the least: Buffon, Trezeguet, Camoranesi, Zanetti and Zebina are all sidelined, while the guests can field their best eleven. With these premises, a small punt on the draw lor, even better, on Catania +1,5 AH looks like a very good choice.

agree 100% catania +1.5 is a banker 10/10here draw is good for 6/10 as well h2h are two draws 1-1.



Napoli play at home very good but Palermo as well is in good form of late and beaten very good genoa side last time but away they are little worst
Napili dnb is a banker but I am offraid of draw a bit...

[Bober891]

What about Inter?Any injures or suspended?

[EdJohn]

Bologna vs Udinese...Bologna is still playing like a serie b team, despite their sensational win over milan...If they concede a goal,they just dont know how to get an equalizer, it was obviosly against fiorentina and atalanta.... On the other hand, udinese is a good team, but not in best shape, after a 0-0 with napoli at home....But let's not forget that great win from dortmund that shows the real power of udinese when they play away and have full concentration....IMHO i think the odds fot AW are great and deserve a special attention...3.00 ....7/10 GL!

Completely agree!. I can't believe that odds for Udinese victory are about 3.00. Even double chance is 1.50 and I don't see that Bologna can win here. I wrote full preview on my betting blog where I suggested clear away win, but away win on level ball is also great choice.

[master_from_Italy]

Originally Posted by EdJohn

Completely agree!. I can't believe that odds for Udinese victory are about 3.00. Even double chance is 1.50 and I don't see that Bologna can win here. I wrote full preview on my betting blog where I suggested clear away win, but away win on level ball is also great choice.

Be carefull, Udinese without Di Natale....maybe the best choice is Udinese not to loose

[srjansky]

Originally Posted by Bober891

What about Inter?Any injures or suspended?

Squad for tonight's match:
Goalkeepers: 1 Francesco Toldo, 12 Julio Cesar, 22 Paolo Orlandoni.
Defenders: 2 Ivan Ramiro Cordoba, 4 Javier Zanetti, 13 Maicon, 16 Nicolas Burdisso, 23 Marco Materazzi, Nelson Rivas, 26 Cristian Chivu.
Midfielders: 5 Dejan Stankovic, 14 Patrick Vieira, 19 Esteban Cambiasso, 33 Amantino Mancini, 77 Ricardo Quaresma.
Strikers: 8 Zlatan Ibrahimovic, 9 Julio Ricardo Cruz, 10 Adriano, 18 Hernan Crespo, 45 Mario Balotelli, 21 Victor Obinna.

Zlatan probably won't play...

[bursa_texas]

Originally Posted by srjansky

Squad for tonight's match:
Goalkeepers: 1 Francesco Toldo, 12 Julio Cesar, 22 Paolo Orlandoni.
Defenders: 2 Ivan Ramiro Cordoba, 4 Javier Zanetti, 13 Maicon, 16 Nicolas Burdisso, 23 Marco Materazzi, Nelson Rivas, 26 Cristian Chivu.
Midfielders: 5 Dejan Stankovic, 14 Patrick Vieira, 19 Esteban Cambiasso, 33 Amantino Mancini, 77 Ricardo Quaresma.
Strikers: 8 Zlatan Ibrahimovic, 9 Julio Ricardo Cruz, 10 Adriano, 18 Hernan Crespo, 45 Mario Balotelli, 21 Victor Obinna.

Zlatan probably won't play...

http://it.eurosport.yahoo.com/calcio...ce-245205.html

is it risky to bet on over 2.5?

[Moltrasino]

Well, if you believe Inter will score three times.

Personally I don't see Lecce score. Julio Cesar will be eager to get his first clean sheet of the Serie A season.

[Moltrasino]

Originally Posted by master_from_Italy

Be carefull, Udinese without Di Natale....maybe the best choice is Udinese not to loose

And Quagliarella might not play either, according to the latest news from Udine.
Bologna will probably be resting a few players as well, in order to keep them fresh for the weekend's game vs Napoli.