Bayern München vs Hamburger SV. 21/01

Lakini · 19-01-05, 14:02

------Bayern vs HSV------

1.45 3.92 6.53

-/+ 1.25 AH

Bayern and Magath starting their campaign to get the title back, where it belongs to (according to their own words). The primeminister of attacking opponents, Ulli Hoeness, tried to be the best Ulli in years, critizicing and spitting towards all other titlecontenders from Schalke to Stuttgart, from Bremen to Dortmund. It almost seemed as if he was completely out of his mind there, but its actually typical for his arrogant behaviour.

20years ago, Bayern was only scared about the team from Hamburg, who was dominating in the beginning 80ies with their legendary coach Ernst Happel. Around that time, there was even a realistic chance for Hamburg to get sth in Munich, but the last time, Hamburg won, was back in 1983, when Magath (now Bayern-Coach), Hrubesch, Kaltz & Co. defeated Matthäus, Breitner and Augenthaler 4:3 in the Olympicstadium.

Even though Bayern is at the top of the table, they didnt really convince that much, there is much potential in the team. No questions about the midfield, a team which is able to chose between Ballack, Deisler, Scholl, Frings, Hargreaves, Ze Roberto or Schweinsteiger, is simply worldclass. Ballack will be suspended for the game against Hamburg. Problems were the forwards, Makaay not yet as good as in the last season, Pizarro often injured, same with Santa Cruz, Hashemian without a chance, Guerrero inexperienced. Here, Bayern needs to dominate more, but with Makaay and Pizarro in good form, this wont be a problem. But for the game on Friday, Claudio Pizarro is doubtful with a knee injury.

Also the defense of Bayern has been struggling. Lucio in his first half year at Munich wasnt yet as convincing as in Leverkusen, maybe cause Magath didnt find the best partner for him yet. Kovac, Linke, kuffour, Demichelis - noone really played at its best. With the heavy injury of youngster Görlitz, Bayer was suddenly facing a problem on the right back position, where Willy Sagnol wasnt fit either, he improved towards the end of the first half of the season - but he is now injured again Replacements could be Sammy Kuffour or Hassan Salihamidzic. But an even worse problem of Bayern has been the left side: Because Philipp Lahm returns to Bayern next season, they didnt buy a replacement for Lizarazu. Rau doesnt play a role for Magath, Salihamidzic is actually more a right midfielder than a left defender - so the best solution for the time without Lizarazu was suddenly a new time with Lizarazu. The old french came back this winter to take over that position. Thats also good for the criticised Ze Roberto, who harmoniced very well with Liza.

On the goalkeeperposition they have of course Oliver Kahn. But its not a secret, that the living legend played a horrible season so far. In the latest Kicker-Ranking for German Players, he didnt even get a spot in the Top10. He is losing his nerves very fast at the moment it seems, he attacked several journalist in their trainingscamp at Dubai - and also assistant coach Dreher.

One thing for sure, Bayern will be a hard nut for any other team this round. They have a deep squad, they can afford, when one or two keyplayers are suspended or injured, they have 16 or more quality players. And so its uncertain, who is going to start against Hamburg - but whoever it is, it ll be a great lineup.

In 39games in Bundesliga-history at Munich, Bayer won 30 - an impressive record. Just 3 victories in 40years is frustrating for the team from the north, 6times they got at least one point. Remarkable here: the last two times, it was in seasons, when Hamburg reached an UEFA-Cup-Spot in the end. A 2:2 in their great 99/00season, a 1:1 in 2002/2003.

Last 10mutual matches:
07.08.04 Hamburger SV : FC Bayern München 0:2 (0:1)
21.02.04 FC Bayern München : Hamburger SV 1:0 (0:0)
24.08.03 Hamburger SV : FC Bayern München 0:2 (0:1)
09.02.03 FC Bayern München : Hamburger SV 1:1 (1:0)
24.08.02 Hamburger SV : FC Bayern München 0:3 (0:1)
30.03.02 Hamburger SV : FC Bayern München 0:0
03.11.01 FC Bayern München : Hamburger SV 3:0 (0:0)
19.05.01 Hamburger SV : FC Bayern München 1:1 (0:0)
13.12.00 FC Bayern München : Hamburger SV 2:1 (0:1)
06.02.00 Hamburger SV : FC Bayern München 0:0

Now in Hamburg: Pjotr Trochowski

For the first time in years, Hamburg is going to travel optimistically to Munich. In the past, like the horrible game last season, they played like cowards and tried to defend with 11players, luckily they were punished for that.

When you make a bet on Hamburg these days and see them on the 9th position of the table, there is actually nothing interesting about this. But there is: After the 8th round in october, Hamburg was at the bottom of the table! Toppmöller was sacked, former HSV and Lazio-Player Thomas Doll became new coach and starting a great winning streak. If the season had started that day, the table would look completely different: Hamburg would be on 3rd spot, just 1point behind Bayern. From that point of view, we can call this game "topgame" and the price on Bayern is actually a joke. 1.45 against an inform team, which won 4 of last 5 games on the road...BUT there are some heavy problems at the moment in Hamburg: Great defensive duo Boulahrouz and Van Buyten is doubtful. Both have minor injuries, and both might be ready to play, but its also possible, that suddenly Hamburg has to play with Schlicke/Reinhardt there - and thats not even good for 2nd league.

Just looking at the rest of the team, they are pretty good. They transfered now Pjotr Trochowski from Bayern, he is known as one of the biggest talents in Germany for many years now and furthermore, Hamburg is his hometown. Insiders say, he is the most talented player in Hamburg since the old days of nowadays coach Doll, but he is still very inexperienced with his 20years. Nevertheless, Doll announced, that they wont him treat him as a talent anymore, he has to accept a role as a keyplayer of Hamburg in the future - and thats why he is going to be in the starting line-up of Hamburg on friday. He benefits from the fact, that Mpenza is still unavailable for Hamburg and that Almani Moreira is injured. So Sergej Barbarez, who usually plays on the position in offensive midfield, will be at the side of Naohiro Takahara in attack.

Another change in the team of Thomas Doll will probably be on the rightback position. Regular player Björn Schlicke has been playing a bad preparation, so that Doll wants to play with young slovenian Miso Brecko on that position. For suspended veteran midfielder Stefan Beinlich, Collin Benjamin will start, taking the position of David Jarolim in right midfield, while Jarolim plays on the left side of Beinlich. This decision of Thomas Doll also means, that there is no use anymore for german international Christian Rahn, who is probably going to leave the club now. Köln is interested in signing him as soon as possible.

<u>Probable Lineups</u>:

Bayern: Kahn; Sagnol, Lucio, Demichelis, Lizarazu; Deisler, Frings, Hargreaves, Ze Roberto; Makaay, Hashemian/Zickler

HSV: Pieckenhagen; Brecko, Van Buyten (Reinhardt), Boulahrouz (Reinhardt, Schlicke), Klingbeil; Benjamin, Wicky, Jarolim; Trochowski; Barbarez; Takahara

If the two topdefenders Boulahrouz and Van Buyten are able to play for Hamburg, it can be an open match and it wont be that easy for Bayern to beat Hamburg, cause without Ballack and Pizarro, Bayern has some small problems in their offense. With some weak points in the defense of Bayern, both left and right back (Its unknown, in what form Lizarazu is), Hamburg has for sure the chance to mark a goal. Trochowski and Barbarez seem to be a good duo, just Takahara is the opposite of a goalgetter. BUT if just one of those two, Boulahrouz/Van Buyten will be out and Reinhardt or even worse Reinhardt AND Schlicke are going to start, there is probably NO chance at all for Hamburg. So we have to be a little bit speculative here. I dont think both will be recovered, maybe one. Thats still not good enough against Bayern. The game is broadcast in Free-TV and this usually gives extra motivation to Makaay and Co. A win of Bayern by 1 or even more seems to be the best and only solution.

In case the news about the injured Hamburg player DVB and Bou change, there is still a chance to cover. Thats why I am already taking Bayern to win with medium stakes.

Pick: H -1.25, Odds: 2.11, Stake: 6, Bookmaker: Pointbet

The Referee: Lutz Wagner

Wagner 2004/2005: 7games 20yellow 0 red 2 yellow/red 3home/1draw/3away

LATO · 19-01-05, 14:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lakini

Now in Hamburg: Pjotr Trochowski

Just looking at the rest of the team, they are pretty good. They transfered now Pjotr Trochowski from Bayern, he is known as one of the biggest talents in Germany for many years now and furthermore, Hamburg is his hometown. Insiders say, he is the most talented player in Hamburg since the old days of nowadays coach Doll, but he is still very inexperienced with his 20years. Nevertheless, Doll announced, that they wont him treat him as a talent anymore, he has to accept a role as a keyplayer of Hamburg in the future -

Let me say something,
Piotr Trochowski is one of the biggest talents, and surely the biggest talent in hamburg...you haven´t to be an insider to know this...
I know him very well, sure he is still unexperienced, but his problems are his injurys...when he played for BAYERN, he had injury after injury...but believe me this guy will shock you all. His technical skills are unbelievable and he is very fast . Bayern Insider said, that he got more technical skills than Ze roberto (one of best in bundesliga in my eyes)....

Doll understand quickly, that a player like Trochwoski has to play, all the same he is new, young etc...

and that´s what I´m happy about...you guys will still often hear about our Piotr in next time for sure and let me just say you, I´m very happy to see him playing against his ex-club and I still believe him to shot a goal, really....

TheAlchimist · 19-01-05, 15:54

About Trochowski I want to look back to Euro U19 Championships 2003(don't exactly know which year) when Germany with Trochowski as Nr.10 played in the final against Spain.
Most impressed players on this evening were on german side Trochowski and on spanish side Jose Antonio Reyes and Fernando Torres. If we look on development of the spanish guys, we now what we can expect from Trochowski in the next years if he will get enough practice in Bundesliga.

I know one of Trochowskis brothers well and he told me often some stories about Bayern and Piotr and I also know that he has perfect attitude and desire on soccer and I think this in combination with his magnificent skills will make him to one of the most promising players in germany in the next years.

Anyway,I agree with lakini that the chances of Hamburg depend 100% on the nomination of van Buyten and Bouhlarouz but I will write more about it maybe tomorrow.

Lakini · 19-01-05, 16:44

German Soccer subforum now completely hijacked by HSV-Supporters... 8)

sly · 19-01-05, 16:47

Bayern - Hamburg 1.45 4.10 6.00
According to Kicker Pizarro might be unable to play (injury),also shooting star Guerrero.Andreas Görlitz,Willy Sagnol,Roque Santa Cruz are injured too and Ballack is banned for this game. That will be the chance for Alex Zickler to show that he deserves to play more often.
They still have Makaay though and the midfield is extraordinary even without best player Ballack.
HSV (probably) without Boulahrouz and van buyten not the same team as in the last games before the break.But even if they play i don't think they have a chance in München.Bayern is much too strong and they will do anything to win the first game after the break,especially at home.After playing 2:2 with stuttgart they have no other choice but win here or Schalke might go top of the table.
So i expect bayern to win,not as clear as in the cup (3:0) but without big problems.
Over (1,55 at B&W) could be a good bet if Boulahrouz and Van buyten are definitely missing.But that's the first game of the new year,so it easily can end 1:0 or (more likely) 2:0 for FCB.I'll wait for more information on line-ups before deciding here.

Thats my first post so show mercy

Lakini · 19-01-05, 17:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by sly

Thats my first post so show mercy

Welcome on board Sly, another nordic voice here..

LATO · 19-01-05, 19:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lakini

German Soccer subforum now completely hijacked by HSV-Supporters... 8)

yea that's true :lol:

Boulahrouz is definitely out.

He gets to Holland in order to become fit (till 25.01)

Source: www.hsv.de

Lakini · 19-01-05, 19:14

Without Boulahrouz and now with Reinhardt starting, this is going to be tough for Hamburg.

With Brecko and Klingbeil they are already weak. Brecko has a lot of problems, I dont think its clever to let him play against Ze Roberto (or Scholl/Schweinsteiger, no matter who). Klingbeil is solid in defense, but you can forget him for the offense. Reinhard is a good defender - but unfortunately always good for some errors. Reinhard/Van Buyten was the duo which defended under Toppmöller. Although we must say, that at that time no real defensive midfielder was there to support them and the left defenseseide of Hamburg was a desaster.

Lakini · 20-01-05, 13:03

Doll maybe changes his planned starting lineup.

Possible changes: Mpenza, who is fit again, starts at the side of Takahara, Barbarez moves back into midfield, Trochowski plays in left midfield, Jarolim right and either Benjamin, Schlicke or Brecko on right back. I feel that its going to be Schlicke, cause he can support Reinhardt/DvB in critical situations better than the other two and he is strong in heading.

bettingfox · 20-01-05, 13:33

But what about Bayerns offence? Maakay and Ze Roberto are the only deciecive finishers (and maybe Sweinsteiger as a sub)
No Pizzaro! I think he has been the momentum of Bayerns offence this season and I think they can struggle in a game like this. Normally I don\t bet on games after long breaks either so.. anyway 1.40 is not value for a Bayern win, just as 1.50 when Stuttgart visited. 2.00+ is decent for the -1 win , but not convincing enough. this game can end in a tie also. Off course I think Bayern will win but not 2-0 or 3-1 or 3-0 I think it will be very even!
My pick on this game would probably have been over...

Lakini · 20-01-05, 13:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by bettingfox

But what about Bayerns offence? Maakay and Ze Roberto are the only deciecive finishers (and maybe Sweinsteiger as a sub) ...

Its looking good for Pizarro at the moment. But however, wether its Scholl, Guerrero or even Zickler, Hashemian, Schweinsteiger - this is all good enough to cause a lot of trouble to Hamburg.

R4in · 20-01-05, 14:29

10q what you say abuot Over 3 in this game?

Lakini · 20-01-05, 14:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by R4in

10q what you say abuot Over 3 in this game?

I wouldnt touch it. There will be 2 or 3 goals in my opinion....

potter · 20-01-05, 16:47

ok
i see what you`re sayng
GB has 1.48 at +1 1/2 for hamburg wich I think it`s a nice and safe odd :!:

helalpara · 20-01-05, 17:03

Bayern is 2. for most to score home and Hamburg is 2. for most to score away.Pizarro will not play but Makaay has very good form.

Over 7/10 1,60 interwetten

Macot · 20-01-05, 17:05

I voted for away win +1,25... I can see a hard battle for Bayern here, palyers are eager and prepared after the break and all the favourites will find it hard!
Now, HSV started a good streak before the break and there is no reason it shouldnt continue.
Besides, Bayern plays a kind of game now, that rarely goes to big difference wins.
I hope for a nice match and would like to see it end 2:2!
GL!
:P

Lakini · 20-01-05, 17:21

:lol: 8O

Strange, now everybody is criticising me all the time that I too often bet on Hamburg and against Bayern, and now that I am doing the opposite, noone is okay with it either.

Hamburg to get anything on a friday evening in a free tv match against Bayern München - dream on you guys. My dream stopped 1983.

2-0 is my feeling for this match. But of course, I would like to lose this bet for sure.

Lakini · 20-01-05, 20:33

Claudio Pizarro ready to score against Reinhardt again...

Claudio Pizarro was able to participate in the last training today and is probably (~90%) going to be in the starting line up.

Also: Mehmet Scholl will start, which is great for Bayern, cause Scholl is still one of the best. And Deisler also playing.

Ali · 21-01-05, 00:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by potter

ok
i see what you`re sayng
GB has 1.48 at +1 1/2 for hamburg wich I think it`s a nice and safe odd :!:

Those odds really suck imo and should be closer to 1.60-1.65 when compared to B. Munchen vs Hamburg SV 0 : 1 1/4 2.06 : 1.87. Even if Bayern wins 1-0 and only half stake will be taken into account, odds are 1,435 for this outcome.

Compare yourself...

HerthaBSC · 21-01-05, 07:00

Bayern-HSV 0:½ Away @ 2,44

1- Its an opening game. Opening games are always hard to play.
2- HSV last 5 away games 4W 1D
3- Compare Doll-Magath. Doll always want to win.But Magath...

soccer man · 21-01-05, 08:40

b.munich-hamburg

1. Bayern München 17 10 4 3 33 : 20 34-->HOME: 9 6 2 1 19 : 8 20
9. Hamburg SV 17 8 1 8 30 : 25 25 -->AWAY: 9 4 1 4 16 : 12 13

i know the first match after rest give more risk than usuall, but no choice munich allready waste 4 point in last 2 match (A) nurenberg 2-2 and (H) stutgart 2-2. so no doubt that magath will very hungry to get three point tonight coz after this match they have thought match against (A) hertha, (H) leverkusen.
still miss ballack is big lost but bcoz its in munich home and hamburg also lost key player in defend, i dont see hamburg can take anypoint.

take munich -1 9/10

and i dont see munich not scored at least 2 goal so if hamburg can score than this match defenetly over

take over 2,5 6/10

Karl-Heinz · 21-01-05, 09:53

First of all I think the odds on over 2,5 (around 1,55-1,60) are a joke, so stay away from that.
With Pizzaro in line-up and Sholl and Deisler playing, the HC -1,25 @2,05-2,10 surely has some value in my eyes. Moreover Bhoularouz, one of the best defender in Bundesliga is out. Come on people! When Champions league still 5 weeks ahead, its always very dangerous to play in Bayern, because you can be trashed. Bayern 1000% focused on this game.
I am on Bayern 1,50 8/10 and -1,25 @2,08 5/10.
Good luck

Heinzi

teddy s. · 21-01-05, 13:06

Bayern - Hamburg 1 @ 1.45, 8/10
After 2 draws in a row, Schalke is leveled with Bayern now, and that fact should give Bayern players additional motivation which will probably in combination with obviously quality, be enough for home win. Bayern will, IMO be champions this year, and if that is gonna happened, there is no space for another no win situation. Odds are low, but I will go for Bayern @ 1.45 @ Interwetten, stake 8/10.

Sasha · 21-01-05, 13:44

Lakini wrote:

Quote:

Strange, now everybody is criticising me all the time that I too often bet on Hamburg and against Bayern, and now that I am doing the opposite, noone is okay with it either.

I am. :roll:

Quote:

But of course, I would like to lose this bet for sure.

I wouldn't. :lol:

There are few reasons to believe Bayern (and you!) will win... :roll:

M98 · 21-01-05, 15:46

I agree with Herta, First game always hard to predict. I see Hamburg away table this season, 16:12... with asian handicap +1.25, i will take hamburg....

21-01-05, 20:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by M98

I agree with Herta, First game always hard to predict. I see Hamburg away table this season, 16:12... with asian handicap +1.25, i will take hamburg....

Hmmmm...

End of story.....3-Zilch 55 minuto...

Did u forget ...that .....Hamburg is playing Bayern :roll:

Thanks ........ Lakini :wink:

I am only sorry...cause...I know it hurts...since you are a Hamburg man :wink:

Moneyhunter · 22-01-05, 00:29

Another great bet from you Lakini.

You are a real asset to BA.

Looking forward you reading your previews in the future.

Best regards