Pick of the Day 19/12

[TEDDIE21]

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[TEDDIE21]

2/3 +126

UEFA Cup: Zurich v Bayer 04

I really like this bet.Quite risky I know to get involved at this stage of the competition when the two teams play for nothing at the first sight,and especially when UEFA Cup is concerned.

Even though I think there's great value to be had on hosts,mainly because of the motivational factor that gives us an edge.Should Zurich beat Bayer tonight,and Spartak fail to win in France against Toulouse(which is very likely by the way as the Russians arrived in France with their 2nd or even 3rd team),they would finish up top of their group and avoid a likely tough draw against a Champions League side.And believe me they DO care.Although they are qualified already as far as UEFA Cup goes,the Zurich players come off a row of defeats in their local Swiss Super League,and got eliminated by Thun in a Cup game of late.What gift could be better for those 18.000 people expected to attend today's clash from Letzigrund Stadium(a record nomber by the way) if not a convincing home victory against a top European club on their last official match of the season?

Zurich were impressive in Moscow,they shouldn't have lost there,and they should be praised for their perfomance on their only match they've played at home in UEFA this season when they have clearly defeated French side Toulouse getting a 2-0 win.I also feel the need to add that they got NO important injured/suspended players ahead of this clash,so full squad available for Bernard Challandes.

Bayer might be impressive in their local championhip,but as far as their UEFA Cup matches go,I think they clearly lack motivation.I had the chance to watch them,and they really didn't look eager to impress like they do on their ground.Of course that I'm talking about their away matches,as the situation would have certainly be different if they played at home.No matter what their coach Michael Skibbe says:"I want to end the group on top so that we start the knockout phase in the new year with an away game,"I suppose they'd rather make some plans for the Christmas feast instead of treating seriously today's encounter.Why on Earth would they risk their knees and get out of their way when they are already qualified?I'll also add the fact that they arrived in Switzerland without most of their regulars.Of course they can score a lucky goal,and then score once again on a counterattack,but the chances for that to happen are pretty small I think,hence good value on the Swiss side.

Pick Zurich(0)(AH) at 2.09 with Pinnacle

[Love2210.fe]

b]Pick#5, So Far 1/4 -50
Hapoel Tel Aviv - Aalborg BK [/b]

It should be a tie game not as odds present. I can`t see why hosts are favourites considering the big crisis they are into. They are on the last place in domestic league with only 1 win out of 13 games. It seems they are getting closer to relegation and imo Uefa CUp will be the last thing they will think of.

It`s true that Hapoel have some minor chances of taking the next stage ticket but Getafe should not lose to Anderlecht in the other clash. Hapoel`s 3 points were some kind of a big suprise,winning away to Getafe and i kind of a underestimating from oponent`s side. However,they will face Aalborg who are the leaders in their league. They are well performing away and at home. They are rumors that visitors will bring youngsters because of the impossibility to continue in next stage and that is probably why odds are so high. But in fact,visitors will have full squad and only striker Rade Prica is out. Visitor`s coach will want to finish his campaign with at least a point. Furthermore visitors are not such an easy team as they took the outright against Sampdoria and deservedly reached this level.

Hosts,on the other hand,have some missing players: Badir,Srur,Abedi and Hen are out. I believe visitors may create the suprise here and take at least a point.

Pick: Aalborg(DNB)
Odds: 3.25
Bet365

[Loiosh]

Pick #4 2/3 +250

Prokom Trefl Sopot - Zaligiris Kaunas

Pick: Zalgiris -4,5
Odds: 1.91
Bookie: Pinnacle

Once again I'm going against Prokom although their situation is better than against CSKA. Van der Spiegel is healthy and already played in league, where Prokom lost to Anwil. Gurovic, Harassis will be back too. And Prokom have signed new-old player Milicic. That makes them ready and with full squad. But I'm afraid it can appear too little to break the losing streak. Gurovic against Anwil played 20 mins, and scored only 3 points - all from free throws, so I guess he stil isn't in best shape. Form of rest players isn't stable, maybe except Van der Spiegel. Wagner haven't scored a point against CSKA, and was 0/6 from 3 pts, while Slanina sometimes struggle to get past 10 points barrier.

Zalgiris is 4-4 with 4 home wins, and 4 away losses. But to be fair, besides first game against Kinder Bologna in which they have been leading for whole game, to lose eveything in last quarter and match 81:75, you shouldn't expect them to get something from this games. Going to red hot Siena, CSKA or Olympiakos and bringing back any points was on the edge of mission impossible. Now, it's their first real chance since Bologna, to grab away win. Brown looks unstoppable now and with support of Collins I see some problems for Prokom. And if Polish side will keep their inefficent shooting I don't give them any chances today. GL!

[ivan-dzo]

5/6
+405
7th pick
Soccer » Italy » Italian Cup 2007/200
game 1

Torino AC - Roma AS / 0:0 / pick 1 Sporting bet 2.50

Torino already 7 games without win in league, and there is some progress in their game. Last round against Roma at home show some quality and had some good chances, but fail to score. they had only one defeat at home in league so far. They will be without Rossina, so far I know.

Today, they will be motivated to win game 1, and to try to make 1/8 final.

On the other hand, Roma come in this game after 3 draws in row, 2 in league 1 CL, and 10 games in league without defeat. But, what is more important for my bet today, they lost play. It seems that they dont have any solution upfront. They scored only twice in last 3 games!

But, today they are without most key players:

Doni, Mexes, Taddei, Totti, Aquilani, Giuly (not called for match), and Panucci, Esposito and Barusso (cards from last year's Coppa Italia).

How will react youngsters who play today, I dont know,
but IMO Torino have big chance to win.
But in case of always possible draw in Italy draw, I took secure bet

HOME WIN /DNB/ 2.50

Stake 7/10.

GL

[Luchiano]

4/6 +330
my#7

Italian Cup

Torino-Roma

pick: HW, odds 3.6 @ william hill

This is a bet only following last game (last weekend) Torino-Roma, Torino was really unlucky to win, they had a lot of chances and wasted it, Roma was very very lucky to get 1 point.

But today i think hosts are available to beat Roma. Roma will be with B-squad, and they doesnt need this cup game imo. They already participating in CL, and still have good chances in Serie A.
Yes, maybe both teams are not in their best form, but anyway i rate Torino here higher. I think they already have a recipe to beat Roma, as i told, but was a bit unlucky last sunday. And today woth romans b squad they have great chances to do it.

mutual matches
16.12.2007 D1 Serie A Torino Roma 0-0
13.05.2007 D1 Serie A Roma Torino 0-1
20.12.2006 D1 Serie A Torino Roma 1-2
10.05.2003 D1 Serie A Roma Torino 3-1
21.12.2002 D1 Serie A Torino Roma 0-1
05.05.2002 D1 Serie A Torino Roma 0-1
06.01.2002 D1 Serie A Roma Torino 1-0


good luck

[nightwatcher]

Pick 7

so far -147 2/6

Hopsi Polzela – Rogla Zrece (Wed 19 Dec 19:00)
Slovenia Basket

home win -7, 1,95 pinnacle

I already spoke about Rogla and their problem with team. Sisskok isn't in team anymore due to registration problems, and also Sivka is out for a while due to broken leg. But before this game they have even more problems. Jure brolih is injured, Primoz Brolih abd Davorin Skornik bith have problems with injuries too. And Rogla had only 7 players available on trainings these days. By words of coach, they will try to make something for this game, but with low options nothing much they can do. Hopsi on other side coming from 5 losses in a row, but against good teams, Geoplin, Kraski zidar, electra, helios and Zlatorog. But in last game against Geoplin showed good game and managed to keep up almost all game. But Geoplin is much more experienced team. Now, this is very important game for Hopsi and troubles in rogla and home ground should make its advantage too.

GL

[Karra]

My Pick # 4 So Far 0/3 -300

Ice Hockey Swedish Allsvenskan

AIK - Västerås IK 1 Odds 2.7 @ Nordicbet

AIK is currently 13th of 16 teams and their main goal is to avoid two last places and the relegation playouts. The team has some chances to make it to top 7 and playoffs, but they must win a big majority of their remaining (19) games.

Västerås is 4th and 5 points behind Malmö in last place for Elitserien qualification series with a game in hand. This is thus an important game for the visitors also.

AIK has no serious injury worries. Niclas Andersén is with the juniors U20 Swedish squad.
Västerås has major absentees, out are def. Rikard Ekström, fw. Henrik Nordfeldt, fw. Richard Gynge, fw. Kim Sunna and fw. Mikael Backlund. Def. jonas Leetma is doubtful to play.
That means VIK wil have 4 juniors in the squad today.

Tables.
4. VIK Västerås HK 27 17 3 7 91 : 61 54 Away: 13 4 2 7 36 : 38 14
13 A I K 26 8 5 13 73 : 78 32 Home: 12 7 0 5 47 : 32 21

AIK 5 latest games.
2007-12-16 AIK IF-Sundsvall 6-0
2007-12-12 AIK IF-Nyköping 4-2
2007-12-10 Växjö-AIK IF 4-1
2007-12-05 Huddiinge-AIK IF 3-4
2007-12-03 AIK IF-Hammarby 2-3

Västerås 5 latest games.
2007-12-16 Löven-VIK 2-3
2007-12-14 VIK-Almtuna 3-2
2007-12-12 Bofors-VIK 2-4
2007-12-10 VIK-Leksand 4-2
2007-12-05 VIK-Nybro 5-3

No doubt Västerås is the classier team, but they don't play nearly as good away as at home. Västerås also have lot of absentees today, so AIK has a decent chance in winning. Odds 2.6 or more is value to me, stakes 5/10.

[Brooklyn]

1st pick


Basketball, Euroleague

AJ Milano - Efes Pilsen

Pick: Efes Pilsen -3
Odd: 2.06
Bookie: Pinnacle

Despite the poor start, Blatt and Efes are slowly beginning to settle. In my opinion, they have the potential to beat every team in this group, if they settle soon. Cutting Woods from the starting five can be effective, I'll agree with Blatt, however Milano is having trouble defending their painted area, so I expect dominant performance from Efes big guys.

I agree with muratcan on the frontpage, even though it's a decisive game for them, AJ Milano are not giving me a light actually. Surely, they will try as every other team, I can't see them winning today. They have key games against Aris and Cibona in later weeks but sorry AJ, not today.

[no name]

MY PICK #3 so far 0/2 -200

NBA 2007/2008

Milwaukee Bucks v Sacramento Kings


Pick:Sacramento
Odds:3.45
Bookie:

-The Kings were winless in their first nine road games, but they've won two of their last three and are 2-2 on their current trip.

-In seven starts filling in for Martin, Salmons is averaging 18.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.9 assists while shooting 55.1 percent from the field. He was 13-for-18 on Tuesday, delivering 31 points to lead Sacramento (10-14) to a 106-101 victory at New Jersey.

-The Bucks suffered their sixth consecutive road loss with a 104-99, double-overtime defeat Monday night at Cleveland. It was also their 10th loss in 13 games overall after a 7-4 start.

-Redd led all scorers with 24 points in these teams' first meeting Dec. 10, but the Bucks lost 96-93 at Sacramento - their 11th loss in their last 13 games against the Kings. Salmons started that game and had 22 points while shooting 9-for-14 from the field.

-For me this is an equal match and I will take this excellent odds with small stakes!

GOOD LUCK

[bside]

5th POD:

So far: 2/4 +3


Hawks - Heat, ML, 1.85 @ Pinnacle

If it was another team with 7-17 overall and 4-9 road record, I'm sure Atlanta would be made bigger favourit by bookies. But everyone expects Miami to start winning at some point. Well, this can happen only if they improve drastically, and 3-4 points win over Minnesota (at home) is hardly an improvement. Atlanta sit proudly at 50-50 record, and this is really an achievement for Hawks. They are moving in the right direction and maybe play-offs are possible in the weak East. Anyway, I rate them as better team than Miami right now, plus they are at home.
Atlanta won the first game against Heat in Miami, as well as a pre-season game between them.

[judas]

Pick #5 2/4 -3

Basketball, NBA, USA

Cleveland @ New York

Pick: Cleveland (-4)
Stake: 8/10 Odds: 2.02
Bookmaker: Pinnacle

This one seems like th best bet for me today. New York registered some wins lately but this doesn't mean they are out of crisis. They are still a bunch of talented players who don't know what to do on court, no need to mention they dont have any organization on defence. Now Marbury is back so this will give them a boost offensively, but they are facing a good defence tema today. I know that good defence team did not seem like they are defending at all lately, but i am sure they know that hey need some wins to get back on rhytim.

And against a poor team like New York, they have a perfect chance to achieve a win in a game which will allow Lebron to do whatever he wants. Yes, New York probably won't have an answer for the King and i expect a easy win by Cavs.

After Lebron's and Varejao's return, they are still far from expectations (far from the team that won the eastern conference), however soon or later they have to be better, and today they will be motivated and may even want to finish this game as early as possible so that coach Brown can rest Lebron for tomorrow's big matchup with Kobe.

[Feri]

#3

1/2 +125


Basketball NBA


Boston Celtics vs Detroit Pistons


Pick: Pistons ML @3.30 Pinnacle


A pure value bet imo.

Two teams placed at the top of the Eastern conference . The Celtics on a
9-0 run and the Pistons following with 8-2 in the last ten games.

I see a clash of the (Eastern) Titans in a televised game and the winner should
be a tough decision all till the end. Therefore I'm taking my chances
at these beatiful odds and will be hoping for the guests.

The Pistons have been "owning" the Celtics pretty clearly being 15-3 in their
last 18 and although the home side is in a more than great shape, then so
are the guests and maybe tradition could help here a bit.

No hard feelings even if I lose this one, I would only regret not to have taken
it.

BTW I'm taking the Pistons to cover the +6.5 in my combos, but really
hope they take it SU.

5/10

[tipsman]

Pick No 9
5/8 +265

NBA
Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards
Pick Chicago
Odds 2.83 @ Pinnacle

The Wizards are playing magic lately, and they seem to have taken their name seriously... with out Arenas they look like a downgraded squad, but the wizards take out some hidden balls and are currently on a 4 games winning streak. And the most amazing thing is that after Thomas was injured, a month ago they had to start play with out their No 1 player Gilbert Arenas, and now they play for a week now without his replacement, Daniels. With Daniels and Arenas out it is time for a new amazing guard to sparkle - DeShawn Stevenson who is averaging 17.7, 8 points above his usual mark.

On the other hand, the Bulls are coming after a home 12 points defeat at home against Lakers as they fell on the last place in Central Division. The things couldn't go worser for the Bulls. But tonight, we could expect a come back from Chicago, who needs this victory. And even if Washington has won their last 4 games, they are without Arenas! We have to consider that their last four games were against Minnesota, Nets, Heat and Kings, 4 teams who are all at 0.400 this season.

Ben Wallace should have a quite easy night under the basket with Arenas out, so I expect Nocioni and Deng to clear this out. Anyway, 2.83 for Chicago against ArenasLESS Washington is value, so I have to take it. GL

[tipsman]

Originally Posted by tipsman

Pick No 9
5/8 +265

NBA
Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards
Pick Chicago
Odds 2.83 @ Pinnacle

The Wizards are playing magic lately, and they seem to have taken their name seriously... with out Arenas they look like a downgraded squad, but the wizards take out some hidden balls and are currently on a 4 games winning streak. And the most amazing thing is that after Thomas was injured, a month ago they had to start play with out their No 1 player Gilbert Arenas, and now they play for a week now without his replacement, Daniels. With Daniels and Arenas out it is time for a new amazing guard to sparkle - DeShawn Stevenson who is averaging 17.7, 8 points above his usual mark.

On the other hand, the Bulls are coming after a home 12 points defeat at home against Lakers as they fell on the last place in Central Division. The things couldn't go worser for the Bulls. But tonight, we could expect a come back from Chicago, who needs this victory. And even if Washington has won their last 4 games, they are without Arenas! We have to consider that their last four games were against Minnesota, Nets, Heat and Kings, 4 teams who are all at 0.400 this season.

Ben Wallace should have a quite easy night under the basket with Arenas out, so I expect Nocioni and Deng to clear this out. Anyway, 2.83 for Chicago against ArenasLESS Washington is value, so I have to take it. GL

The odds are 2.90 now... can one of the mods please edit it. Thanks