Pick of the day - 27.11.2007

[Enravota]

Thanks to Terje,the sponsor of this competition!

[Enravota]

Pick #9,so far 6/8 and +358

Snooker,UK Championship qualifiers
Andrew Higginson - Lee Spick

Pick:Higginson
Odds:1.78
Bookmaker:Pinnacle


Andrew Higginson was the biggest sensation last season and made the greatest progress in the rankings.However this season is disappointing for him as he lost his first matches for Shanghei and Northern Ireland Trophy and did not qualify for Aberdeen.
On the other hand Spick was winning his first round qualifiers and here made one more step,winning also his second game against the legend Jimmy White.
At first sight seems that the match will be a tough one with a possible upset...
Well,I am not so sure.Let's be realistic - today everyone beats Jimmy White,and the other opponents that Spick has beaten this season were not something special.Andrew Higginson lost his first match for NIT,but he played well,he was leading and only at the end lost to a good player like Rod Lawler.I think his motivation for a first win for the season will be very,very high now.
Also - the match that Spick won against Jimmy was a scrappy affair - Spick was making breaks of 15-20 points and it was Jimmy who did not capitalise on his mistakes.Higginson is a better player and if Spick does not improve his play a lot,he will suffer.Odds for Higginson in Pinnacle are rising,but the reality is that he'll probably win easily.GL!

[nightwatcher]

Pick 8

so far: 3/7 +100

Worthing – Dorchester Town
FA Trophy

home win 2,65 bwin

again I go for Worthing, this time on their ground. Unlucky goal in 7th minute of extra time stopped them to win game 0-1 on Dorchester's ground. Now sure they are a bit down, but still are decent team. They showed in game that they can beat Dorchester since they were better opponent. First half dominating and in second, when Dorchester tried to put something out of it, they showed them they have enough weapons to stop them. They ere 1-0 up in 61'minute and had a couple of decent chances. Really deserved that win.
This time they play at home, where they have their support and IMO they will do it this time. Dorchester is still in trouble, no good striker, one of best players left etc etc.. and IMO their priority will be to save season in conference south, not to be good in cup.

GL

[kaliksto]

Pick#7
VfB Stuttgart(-1EH) - Rangers
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.60
Bet365

It seems german champions are getting back in form but too late. In Bundesliga they trashed Bayern(3:1) at home and Frankfurt(4:1) away and are back on the road,climbing up to the 7th place.
2. Glasgow Rangers 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
4. VfB Stuttgart 4 0 0 4 3:10 0

Hosts lost their chances for further level so will play for their honour. I can`t imagine german champs to finish CL without a point. They have Gomez out but Cacau is in form and scored against Frankfurt on Saturday. I think he will want to prove himself and occupy the titular place.
Rangers are indeed poor travelers. They are pretty motivated because of their chance to continue but this may give them disadvantage.
VfB Stuttgart Glasgow Rangers 1:0 Wed 26-11-2003
Glasgow Rangers VfB Stuttgart 2:1 Tue 16-09-2003

The scenario is repeating as 4 years ago when scottish team won 1st leg and then lost at home. I doubt it will be much different. Hosts will give their best to make happy fans,although it will be difficult against motivated scottish side. I think Stuttgart will obtain all the points winning by 1 goal. Good Luck!

Balance 3/6 +167

[zekikum]

#7
Stuttgart-Rangers

pick: (eh) (-1) home
odds: 4.30
bookie: centrebet
Perfect odds and huge value!
Stuttgart has 0 points so far and all players should be extra motivated to change it. At the time of recent group games, they were not just bad in cl but also in domestic league cause they had alot of internal problems and they were out of form. But now things are going well for them as they have 4 wins in a row in league. Rangers are nothing special for me, they got extra points more than i expected. Lyon was unlucky and probably underestimated them. According to table they can choose 2 game plans; play to win or defend for a draw. But both these plans suits home side as i rate them better team, have more quality and guns in an open game. But if they defend i think Stuttgart finds a way to open the wall than it will be much harder to get back for Rangers cause hots will be more motivated in game with morale of leading which can bring some more goals. All in all Stuttgart has nothing to lose but pride. They are better, nothing to lose, in form, have home advantage... these odds totally wrong here!

Pick VOID as kaliksto took the pick before you. (similar pick) / Muuki

It's OK with the rules so it stands. /kamei http://forum.bettingadvice.com/viewtopic.php?t=58275

[The Ring]

3/7 +395

PICK #8


Inter Milan - Fenerbahce OVER 2,5 @1.95 Expekt
Stake: 4/10

Inter is facing Fenerbahce tonight in clash in Group G! Inter still has all to play for as they arent 100% sure for the next stage of the tournament. Also I should add that they would be very angry because of the lost in the first game and will be very motivated to slash their opponent tonight. This season the italian side showed what remarkable games they are able to play. Last game they came from behind loosing by 2! In Italy they are again at the top 3 points ahead and a game in hand. Also they have scored every single home game but also have conceded in 5 out of 7!
Fenerbahce showed that they are a great team with great team spirit. They have some problems in the local league but in CL they have all the chances to qualify for the next stage. IMO with Alex - one of the best midfielders in the world, Fenerbahce are able to make problems of every team. Both team will play a bit relaxed IMO as chances for any of the team not to qualify goes through lost in this game and PSV away from home against tough russian side CSKA Moscow! Also as muratcan said on the main page the line is a bit lower as it probaby should be 2.75 Sorry for the short preview, but writting from a laptop is definetely not easy either or pleasure!

[zekikum]

sorry.. paddy not in pod, than
bookie:centrebet
odds: 4,65 (anyway 3,50 for pod)

record: 4/6, +480

[Lestat]

Pick #6 (2/5, -110)

Football, UEFA Champions League

Steaua Bucuresti v SK Slavia Praha

Pick: Steaua Bucuresti, Odds: 2.20, Bookmaker: Betsafe

Standings:

1.Arsenal	4	10 pts
2.Sevilla	4	9  pts
3.Slavia	 4	4  pts
4.Steaua	 4	0  pts

Important match for both teams. If Steaua wins they still have a chance to get the 2rd spot while Slavia only needs a draw to be sure. First match between these two was won 2-1 by Slavia despite Steaua controlling the match. Same scenario expected today with Steaua attacking and Slavia trying to hit on counters.
Not really much to say about this match as all was said here .
Not much time to write more and despite the fact I won't be able to finish the competition this month I still believe it's a good bet and deserves medium stakes.

[shymek]

Pick Number: 9
4/8 +114

Unics Kazan – PGE Turow Zgorzelec
27.11.2007 17:00 CET
Basketball – ULEB Cup

Pick: Under 156
Odds: 1.952 Pinnacle

Why?
Hi! I think this game will be a show of big defense.
Unics played very good last season in this competition, when they reached semifinals. But it’s a bit different now, they have won only one game out of three so far. Week ago they were defeated by Hapoel Jerusalem by 39 points collecting only 68. I’m sure they will improve defense today in order to win. Turow is in better situation, they have 2 wins after 3 games. In last meeting against Strasbourg, players from Zgorzelec allowed opponents to get only 42 points. They had 66 so not many points again. I hope they will be so tight in defense also today.
Russians are clear favorites here but they will have hard task. They aren’t brilliant in offense. Jerry McCullough play well, but Tariq Kirksay, Dusko Savanovic or Sergei Chikalkin look to be out of form. Nevertheless, defense isn’t so bad. Last week they forced Hapoel to do 21 turnovers. But they had problems to take advantage of it. I don’t think they can get more than 75-80 against PGE. When it comes to Turow, they play in such way, that opponent have difficult positions to throw. David Logan, one of the best players admired, that defense is their trademark. Usually 5 or more Zgorzelec’s players gets 10+ points. It shows, that they play collective, what is important also in defense. Coach Sasa Filipovski is satisfied that his team play aggressive and confident basket. Although Kitzinger and Petrovic aren’t able to play, atmosphere in the team is pretty good.
I predict this will be very close game, without easy baskets. This should be low-scoring one. I predict 142-148 in total. Good luck!

[StEtOc|nA]

Pick #7 so far 3/6 +184

Champions League
Sevilla - Arsenal
Pick: over 3.5
Odds: 3.5
Bookamker : BET365

Very poor form lately, but I think that tonight I have a banker.
Match tonight, nobody can really lose anything here. Both teams qualified and I think that we can not see NOT TO LOSE mentality here. Both teams have something to prove - Sevilla that the first match wasn't showing a difference in class and that it was just a poor night, and Arsenal to show how strong they really are this season.
Don't see any new missings in both squads, Dani Alves returns back for Sevilla.
I just have to take this one, because I see to much creativity and firepower in both squads, that something like under looks impossible for me and if we see an early opening goal we could see even more than 4 or 5 goals.

GL!

[ivan-dzo]

3/8
-59 ops:
9th pick
English Championship

Ipswich Town v Southampton (0:1)pick 1 Gamebookers 3.50

This year 100% at home Ipswich is simple brilliant! They trash 5 opponent with 2 or more goals diference, so why not Southampton, too?
They having problems away 3-0-5, lost last one away 5-0 against Sheff.Weds...

If Ipswich Town is not 0-4-5 away, what is very strange, they will be in fight for first 2 places, now must fight for play-off place until the end of season. Nobody can explain how team has two different faces home and away, but they should keep winning at home..

Southampton is average all season, and no power to chase promotion.
Exept 2.3 good game this year, they in fact show nothing specially.


H2H:
2007-02-24 Southampton 1-0 Ipswich
2006-09-09 Ipswich 2-1 Southampton
2006-01-21 Southampton 0-2 Ipswich
2005-09-13 Ipswich 2-2 Southampton
2002-03-02 Ipswich 1-3 Southampton
2001-10-24 Southampton 3-3 Ipswich
2001-04-02 Southampton 0-3 Ipswich
2000-12-16 Ipswich 3-1 Southampton

BBC
Gavin Williams faces a late fitness test for Ipswich after returning from ruptured ankle ligaments in the 1-0 defeat at Cardiff.
Billy Clarke could replace Williams, while striker Jonathan Walters is also doubtful with a groin injury.

Southampton are still struggling for numbers with centre-half Wayne Thomas (Achilles) a major doubt.
On-loan defender Christian Dailly has returned to West Ham while four fellow defenders all remain on the sick list

Fir me Ipswich is favorite in this one, home win 7/10 stake, and Handicap -1 home win 3/10 stake!

Good luck!

[Karra]

This was posted by Leni early this morning: http://forum.bettingadvice.com/viewtopic.php?t=71930

Originally Posted by Leni

Pick------9 (4/8 +101)

Champions League 2007/2008
Sevilla - Arsenal

pickver3.5
bookie:betandwin
odds:3.55

I must play for good odds and this is the pick for me today. I trust my instinkt that this match will have unleast 3 goals but i will take over 3.5 for POD.
This is because theese two teams have already qualificy for next round (only mathematics can take on Sevilla on third place, let's face out - this is not possible!!!!!!!) and we shood see all weapons on the field. Some players will be resting for national championship and some young players will do their best to take place in first scuad.
Arsenal on first place, Sevilla on second show exelent performance this season in Champions League:
1. Arsenal 4 3 1 0 11:0 10
2. Sevilla 4 3 0 1 8:6 9
3. Slavia Praha 4 1 1 2 4:12 4
4. Steaua Bucharest 4 0 0 4 2:7 0

Theese two teams plays in best world leagues, thay have class players and future in world football.
Arsenal scores 11 times in 4 matches (one 7:0 with Slavia Praha) and thay haven't goal in theyr net yet, but this is different story. Arsenal come in Spain to play and attack, this young players can beat anyone. Match for tham is important because whole world shood see that is not only coincidence to be first and unbeaten in Champions League and in Premier League.
Sevilla play for pride and remembering lost in London (3:0), play to show that bad season in Spain Primera is only bad start, and afcourse to be mathematicly 1-rst or 2-nd. And there is last match: lost in primera at home (1:2 with Mallorca).
Both teams has killing atack and exelent scorers.
One goal in first 20-30 min. will make this match very interesting and with a lot of fight and lot of goals... and with little luck this will be over 3.5.
P.S. Take over 2.5 if you are afraid
GL

[Louis]

Pick #9 (1/8 ops: -450)

Champions League
Steaua Bucharest - Slavia Praha

Pick: over 3.5
Odds: 3.55
Bookie: bwin

I was'n so bad last month (i was on six place in October) but i was trying in November to post all picks with odds more than 3.5... i accept loosing this month but i want finish with stile

Let's focus on this match:

Group H
1. Arsenal......................4 3 1 0 11:0 10
2. Sevilla.......................4 3 0 1 8:6 9
3. Slavia Praha............4 1 1 2 4:12 4
4. Steaua Bucharest.....4 0 0 4 2:7 0

Slavia Praha has chances for 2-nd place (only theoretic) by winning this game and Sevilla must draw or lose with Arsenal... in last match they'll play with Sevilla at home and by win (if today Sevilla lose) they will be second, or to win by 2 goals (if Sevilla draws today) because in first match Sevilla wins over Slavia 4:2.
Slavia can show very good games (they eliminate Ajax), and very poor games (trashed in London with 7:0).
But Slavia can be also in 4-th place if lose today in Romania (Slavia will have 4, and Steaua 3 points)... last matces will dicide for third place:
Slavia Praha - Sevilla
Arsenal - Steaua Bucharest

For Steaua this match is very important and they will atack hard to win and stay with chances for 3-rd place. Untill now Steaua lost four games but always tight:
Steaua Bucharest - Sevilla 0:2
Sevilla - Steaua Bucharest 2:1
Steaua Bucharest - Arsenal 0:1
Slavia Praha Steaua - Bucharest 2:1

Thay play well at first match with Slavia, thay control the ball and have unfortunate lost. This is time for take first three points and good show in home ground. But it is possible? We don't know how will unpredictible Slavia show up in this match (one of they excelent plays or one of the poorest plays). Slavia can score, Steaua too... that leads on over game.
When one of this teams losing in one part of the game we will see very atacking football.
In my mind are results like: 2:3 and 3:2

Both teams to score is good choice here (8/10)
Over 2.5 too (8/10)
Over 3.5 for Pick Of The Day (4/10)

Good luck

[StEtOc|nA]

Pick #7 so far 3/6 +184 (first pick today voided)

Champions League
Manchester United - Sporting
Pick: under 3
Odds: 1.88 @ Pinnacle

Sorry for first pick I really didn't see this locked topic.

Regarding this pick, I don't really see enough motivation for both teams. I think Sporting is already 3rd and this will remain, and for MU, I don't think they will put so much big effort in this game. If we consider also injured players for MU (Ronaldo, Rooney, Vidic...) I don't even think that this will be even win for Man Utd because they obviously lack of firepower, and really don't see Sporting sudenly become super scoring team. So my prediction for this is one boring game, with some chances for both sides but, not more than 2 goals for sure.

GL!

[w0nd3r]

6/9 +386

CSKA Moscow (-1) - PSV Eindhoven (+1)
Draw 3.60 (3.50 for POD) @ Bet365 EH

My 10th pick must be with high odds to keep my chances for the competition, so for today I think this is the best one cuz of the following reasons:

-CSKA still have not victory in CL this year. Their last match will be very tough (in Turkey vs. Fenerbahce), so they must win today if they don't want to leave the competition without a win.

-This is CSKA's last home match in Champions League this season. If they don't win today, this will become their last home match in Europe this season, because 3rd placed PSV have 3 points advance.

-CSKA still have chances for the 3rd place. They're 3 points behind PSV and if they win today they will be with the same points. Then everything will depend on the last matches in Group G.

-CSKA have a lot of Russian National players. They will be boosted by the qualifying of Russia NT for Euro 2008 and I expect good game from them today.

-CSKA's coach - Valeriy Gazzaev continued his contract with the team. He'll be in the Russian grand until 2011. This will assure him a comfort, and he won't be pressured that if he lose this one he'll lose his job.

-The weathermen in Russia predicts temperature to be under 0. This will be good for Russian players for sure. They used to play in this conditions, while for the Dutch guys, it will be harder to adapt to this temperature. I think this temperature will predispose the match to few goals, maybe one.

-PSV will miss their skipper Timmy Simons, for sure. Questionable are Afelay, Cullina and Farfan. Eric Addo is suspended.

-Gazzaev said that he won't risk with Jo, Odia and Chemberas. They're with injuries and according do Gazzaev's words he won't list them in the squad. Though he said that his players are feeling very well and they want the victory. It will be their main task!

VOID. This match started at 18:30 CET
Minov

[Love2210.fe]

Pick#7, So Far 3/6 +400
England - League Championship
Stoke City - Queens Park Rangers

IMO odds are wrong here as i can`t see QPR as such underdogs. They are recently improving and changed their owners. New ones filled the club with money and the mood is ok. In my eyes these teams are equal to quality but considering recent form and motivation i rate visitors a bit higher.
After bad start,QPR(22th) show some improvement. They drew last 2 rounds against Sheffield Wednesday at home and against Crystal Palace away from home. But in this match they allowed late equalizer and missed the victory although they provided lots of goal attempts. In last 8 they are 3-4-1. Dexter Blackstock is fully fit after he played a little in last game. Away from home QPR won only against Charlton and lost two times out of 7 games. I believe it is time for 2nd victory away.
HOsts on the other side are in terrible form after 3 consecutive losses at home and awful performance in last game away from home against Burnley(0:0). I can`t understand why they are such a big favourites,maybe because they are higher in the table(10th)
Queens Park Rangers Stoke City 1:1
Stoke City Queens Park Rangers 1:0
Queens Park Rangers Stoke City 1:2
Stoke City Queens Park Rangers 1:2
Queens Park Rangers Stoke City 1:0
Stoke City Queens Park Rangers 0:1
Stoke City Queens Park Rangers 0:1
Queens Park Rangers Stoke City 1:0

It seems visitors feel comfortable here as they won 3 times and lost only once. I see QPR as a winner here and doubt they will give some chances for Stoke City. Low stakes,gl.

Pick:QPR
Odds: 3.75
Bet365

[Joton]

Pick 7# 2-6 + 100 points

Englisgh League One: Swansea (-1EH) v Hartlrpool 1 @ 3.35 @ Expekt

Swansea lost only one game from last ten and that was two games ago at in-form Huddersfield by the minimum 1-0 score. They bounced back and won away at Tranmere by 1-0. Their last four games finished by a one goal margin with wins:2-1, 1-0, 1-0 and one defeat 0-1.
Hartlepool are in a rather poor form despite their 6-0 win on Gainsborough four games ago as this was their only win form last five. They lost away at Hudders by 2-0 at home to Morecambe 3-5, drew 1-1 against Bournemouth and finally lost 2-1 away at Gillingham.
Swansea can be expected to deliver a better game tonight and get the win. They have no fresh injury concerns with fit-again Andy Robinson likely to start, while Owain Tudur Jones attempts to shake off an ankle problem. Guillem Bauza, Leon Britton and Andrea Orlandi all came off the bench in the win at Tranmere and could feature.
Hartlepool trio Gary Liddle, Andy Monkhouse and Ben Clark are again likely to miss out through injury. On-loan defenders Godwin Antwi and Eddie Nolan should continue while Matty Robson (calf) is fully fit again.
I believe Swansea can win this game but might not win by more than one goal. The last time they beat a -1 handicap was against Bournemouth eight games ago. Since then they drew twice lost once by one goal and won four times by one goal margin.
I believe they are able to win here and with their players back and the problems at the visitors side Swansea can beat a -1 ball handicap. I take the home win with the -1EH at 3. 35 @ Expekt

[Brooklyn]

#6

5/5, +630

CL

Inter - Fenerbahce

Pick: Fenerbahce +1
Odd: 2.14
Bookie: Pinnacle

Inter 9
Fenerbahce 8
PSV 4
CSKA 1

A much more important and decisive game for qualification since PSV scored and they are up, 1-0 against CSKA at the moment. If PSV wins, their qualification chances will go on. But if PSV can't win here, both Inter and Fener will automatically be qualified and the game will turn into a relaxed group leadership match.

Fenerbahce are defending well this year, after having disappointing performances at Champions League in recent years. They have just conceded 2 goals this year, both of them against out of shape CSKA by individual mistakes from Edu Dracena. But now, he looks more focused since that game.

It will be a close game in my opinion and there's value in Fener's odds.

Pick void, you were two minutes late, I'm sorry to say. /Karra

[judas]

Pick #8 7/7 +653

Basketball, USA, NBA

MIL Bucks - PHI 76ers

Pick: MIL Bucks (-6.5)
Stake: 7/10 Odds: 2.00
Bookmaker: Pinnacle

Loving the Bucks here. We all know they are a great home team whose game is mostly based on shooting, and also they are playing against one of the poorest teams in the nba. Sixers showed some signs lately with some good performances but i cannot see them playing consistently well. Handicap was 7.5 in the morning, now we have 6.5 with a good price. It may still seem a little big for an average team like Milwaukee but i believe they are capable of trashing poor opponents in their home court with some decent shooting performances.

I had backed Atlanta away at Milwaukee and watched that game and my impression about Bucks totally changed. They are better than i thought before and especially Redd is playing superb lately.

One of the better bets of the night in NBA

[Macot]

Pick #10
So far 5/9 +509

2007-11-27 Miami - Charlotte by: Macot (27-11-2007 23:48 CET)

Discuss this pick in the Bettingadvice forum

NBA

Two tough wins and bookies already consider Miami as favourites. But, if we check these two wins (which came among three rather painful losses), the first one came against (then) out of form New Jersey without Carter and the other came against Houston, who are in the slump themselves. So, did Miami really improve?

On the other side, Charlotte are young and eager team, they really gave a great game to Boston and had a win in their hands, leading by 2 points with 4 sec. left and ball in their hands. Allen showed what a bright star he is though and made a great threepointer in last sec. and Boston won. Still, Charlotte play well and have their best season since founding the franchize 4 years ago.

So, once again, I expect Charlotte to give a good fight and I expect them to win this. For those who are not so curagious, take +7 handicap, it should cover easily.

GL!

Pick: A, Odds: 3,75, Stake: 7, Bookmaker: Pinnacle

[Brooklyn]

#6

5/5, +630

Basketball, NBA

Chicago Bulls - Atlanta Hawks

Pick: Hawks +5.5
Odd: 2.00
Bookie: Pinnacle

Chicago was considered to be one of the top teams in the East after advancing to the conference semifinals last season. Instead, the Bulls have been one of the worst, averaging an NBA-low 86.5 points and shooting a league-worst 38.5 percent from the floor.

Atlanta is coming off an impressive 94-87 victory over Minnesota on Saturday, as it rallied from a 21-point first-half deficit and from 10 points down in the fourth. The Hawks also came back from a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit in their 82-79 win at Miami on Wednesday.

No significant injuries in both teams and no back to back situations are present.

Bulls won the last 11 games against Hawks, but this time I'll expect a more competitive game and back Hawks at least to cover the handicap.

GL!