The easiest way to win... for me

It is actually very simple and very effective. The only thing to do is find two or three matches that will not end up in a draw. I play this method since one week and I tripled my money since that period because I bet totally 9 matches that didn't draw. The normal coeficient of a good bookie for "1 2" prediction would be about 1.26 to 1.30. So this means if you can find two matches that will not end up in a draw you gain profit: 1.26*1.26 = 1.59, so this means by guessing two non-draw matches you gain 60% (minimum) profit. And believe me... that is the easiest thing in the world because you don't care who is going to win, and there are such teams (as Derby County, Reading etc. which give you more than 90% security that they will not draw their matches. Seems absurd but think about the following... the draw is the most difficult result to happen (in certain competition of course - mainly English div. one, two, three, especially the Dutch Gouden Gids Divisie, Primera division and so on). Good luck

[Octavian]

I would like to know more about the way you choose your games!
I am doing it in a very strange way!
I'll try to explain!
If a team has 2-3 away draws or home draws in a row I think that statistics tell us that another draw is very unlikely to happen!
What do you think about that?
Please explain your method!

[one-two]

Well, actually I search quite the opposite ! According to me you should look for teams that do not end up in draws - it is more probable to win this way, than choosing teams which have drawn their last 2-3 matches, because it is even more probable to end the next match in a draw. For example - The Dutch Division II - see this address - http://sunsite.tut.fi/rec/riku/socce...mes1.dut1.html

If you calculate how many draws happen there you'll see what I mean - only 1 out of every 7 matches is a draw !!! So you can calculate what is the probability to pick 2 non-draw matches every round - I think it is quite easy. And if it happens to pick a draw match, next time you double the bet. It is very easy and profitable. My advice is not to pick matches that have drawn recently - on the opposite, pick teams that draw 1 in 10 games and play with teams with the same stats

[Octavian]

You know you're right about the second division in Holland!
I can't believe it! :lol: :lol: :lol:
Do you know other leagues with the same results?

I agree with view that a team prone to draw will continue to draw. Look elsewhere. Are there Bookies out there who offer a 1,2 book rather than a 1X2 book :?: Who are they :?: :?: Great Forum by the way.

[one-two]

You won't believe it, but Holland Division II gave me the idea to actually bet "1 2". Just to answer the previous reply......... EVERY BOOKIE OFFERS YOU "1 2" BET - you just have to know how to bet. The only thing to do is just to eliminate the "X" sign by yourself. I don't know if I have to explain it more, because experienced players know what I mean. But just to answer your question I'll give you a simple example. Let's pick the tonight's match from Portugal (Nacional - Belenenses with coefs. (1 - 2.35; X - 3.22; 2 - 2.82). By the way this probably isn't the best exapmle for "1 2" game but never mind, this is just for example. So, the only thing that concerns us is: 1 - 2.35 and 2 - 2.82. Suppose you have $100. You place $54.60 on "1", and the rest of $45.40 on "2". Thus no matter the outcome is ("1" or "2" of course) you get as total $128. So this means the coef. for this "1 2" match is K = 128/100 = 1.28. And that is a good coef. !!!! If you find another match like that, you will get profit 1.28*1.28 = 1.64, so for a $100 stake you get $164, of course you have to make a combo of both matches. But for two matches you have to bet four columns - all combinations for "1 2" for 2 matches in combo and to calculate exactly how much money to bet. If you win minimum 2 out of 3 this way you'll have about 30% profit of your total betting.
About the Dutch II Div.. I've evaluated so many European divisions but actually nowhere I can find such probability (1 out of 7 for a draw) -even in England Conference. In that direction of thoughts a little software is needed or just a Excel worksheet is enough to evaluate fast all matches and pick the best (of course you can see them - just look Newcastle home form, all teams in Dutch Division two, and many many like that). All you need is stats, and that makes it WAY TOO EASY )

[Koffieboer]

If this explanation is correct, then similar leagues should give a similar result. There are two professional leagues in the Netherlands. When a club relegates from Div 1 (Holland Casino Eredivisie) to Div 2, it always has to drop a lot in budget, because there is a gap between the two divisions. The relegated club almost never can recover from this blow within two years, and they fall somewhere in the middle. There are not real outspoken favorites, so fewer draws that normally can be expected when a favorite plays away against a middle-ranked club. More home-advantages, fewer draws. So where could the same thing be? Denmark? Norway? Or am I comepletely wrong here?

[one-two]

Well, your explanation sounds logical. Also, I see you are from Holland, so I guess you would know these things better than me. I can tell that Bulgarian league has less draws even than Dutch II, but the number of fixed matches here.... well I don't want to talk about this.
We can easily check if you are right...
Just compare the Divisions you spoke about - I will give you the exact addresses:
For Dutch II - http://sunsite.tut.fi/rec/riku/socce...otal.dut1.html
For Danmark II -
http://sunsite.tut.fi/rec/riku/socce...otal.den1.html
For Sweden II -
http://sunsite.tut.fi/rec/riku/socce...otal.swe1.html

And here are the numbers:
For Dutch II - For the first 126 games played we have only 18 draws - this means - 14.3 % of the matches ended in a draw (1 draw out of 7 matches)
For Sweden II - Games played - 240, draws - 62, percent - 25.8%
(1 draw in 3.87 matches)
For Danmark II - Games played - 120, draws - 26, percent - 21.7 %
(1 draw in 4.62 matches)

In fact I've evaluated Dutch II more than any other league - see the past few years: 96/97 - 23.2 % draws, 97/98 - 23.5 % draws, 98/99 - 21.9 %,
99/2000 - 17.6 %, 2000/2001 - 21.2 %, 2001/2002 - 21.9 %.

Well obviously this season is a peak of non-draws, we can only use it.
By the way you're not right for one thing - actually there is no tendency for home wins (at least this season) - the first 126 matches spread like this: Home - 57; Draws - 18; Away - 51.

Just to add here - The Norway II div.
http://sunsite.tut.fi/rec/riku/socce...otal.nor1.html
Matches - 240, draws - 40, percent - 16.7 % !!!!! Also a great league to bet. I'm impatient for it ))
Thank you for the ideas, it is priceless infact
But for now only Dutch II is active, I think...

[Proud]

Hi one-two!

When i first saw your topic, i was thinking "just another unexperienced punter who thinks he has found an easy way to money". I was really sceptical. However when i read your further postings im getting really interested. I will try this with virtual stakes for some weeks and then perhaps with money.

Thank you for interesting info!

And then the purpose for my reply: A great site for statistics you use is:

http://www.beforeyoubet.net/archive/england.html

[Daglashen]

Thanks Proud!
Very interesting stats there... I love statistics.
By the way, the 12 system is not that bad... I have given it a try, and i think that if you are a little bit lucky you may get some extra bucks. :roll:

[one-two]

Thanks to the site Proud gave us I made a ranking that includes 34 European leagues. This ranking tells us where in Europe happen less draws. I made actually two rankings - one for current season, and one for the past three seasons. The number next to the league is the percentage of the non-draw matches. Here they are:

CURRENT LAST 3 YEARS (INCLUDING 2003)

1 Holland II 0.850 .. 1 Nor. II 0.813
2 Austr. II 0.840 .... 2 Holland II 0.807
3 Nor. II 0.830 ...... 3 Fin. II N 0.790
4 Fin. II N 0.810 .... 4 Austr. II 0.790
5 Belgium I 0.800 .. 5 Fin. II S 0.787
6 Fin. II S 0.790 ... 6 Sco. Prem. 0.777
7 Sco. II 0.780 ..... 7 Denmark II0.770
8 Portug. I 0.770 ... 8 Nor. I 0.767
9 DenmarkII 0.770 .. 9 Germ. I 0.767
10 Sco. Prem. 0.760 .. 10 Belgium I 0.767
11 Nor. I 0.760 ...... 11 Sco. III 0.760
12 Italy I 0.760 ..... 12 Portug. I 0.760
13 Spain I 0.750 ..... 13 Turkey I 0.757
14 Sco. I 0.750 ...... 14 Swe. II 0.753
15 Russia I 0.750 ..... 15 Germ. II 0.747
16 Germ. I 0.750 ..... 16 Holland I 0.743
17 Eng. II 0.750 ...... 17 Spain I 0.740
18 Eng. Prem. 0.750 .. 18 Russia I 0.740
19 Denmark I 0.750 .. 19 Fin. I 0.740
20 Swe. II 0.740 ..... 20 Eng. I 0.737
21 Turkey I 0.730 .... 21 Eng. Prem. 0.737
22 Holland I 0.730 ... 22 Eng. II 0.733
23 Germ. II 0.730 ... 23 Denmark I 0.733
24 Fin. I 0.730 ...... 24 Austr. I 0.733
25 Eng. I 0.730 ..... 25 Italy I 0.730
26 Austr. I 0.720 .... 26 Sco. II 0.727
27 Swe. I 0.710 ..... 27 Sco. I 0.727
28 Sco. III 0.710 .... 28 Eng. III 0.723
29 France I 0.710 .... 29 Swe. I 0.720
30 Eng. III 0.710 ..... 30 France I 0.720
31 Belgium II 0.700 .. 31 Belgium II 0.703
32 France II 0.670 .. 32 Italy II 0.680
33 Italy II 0.660 .... 33 France II 0.673
34 Spain II 0.590 ... 34 Spain II 0.650

* Just note that the higher percentage not always means that the league is good to play. Also we have to evaluate where the ratio between "1"s and "2"s is nearest to 1.00, because then we usually will have coefs. for "1" and "2" which will be more equal in value - this is very important for this kind of betting.

[tahoma]

Originally Posted by Proud

Hi one-two!

When i first saw your topic, i was thinking "just another unexperienced punter who thinks he has found an easy way to money". I was really sceptical. However when i read your further postings im getting really interested. I will try this with virtual stakes for some weeks and then perhaps with money.

Thank you for interesting info!

I was going to write exactly the same things as you wrote, Proud 8O

[SpEEdY]

great thing Let's see how this will go.... One-Two you can come with tips and predictions too if you like

[Aight]

Hi y'all this topic is interesting, thanks one-two for bringing it up.

Now regarding the Dutch 2nd Div I have to say that I don't understand how it works. I saw Bettingadvice tipster Daans record lately
Daan 71 31 502.1 380 +11 +122.10 132%

He predicted 71 games and had only 31 right but made 32% profit on his stake.

Seeing this I have to believe that there are not the big favorites in this league unless the bookie don't reconize them. Few favorite winners would indicate more draws but according to former msg there are especially few draws which brings me to the idea of backing the outsiders. According to these "facts" this appears logical.

Or maybe to cover bets on oudsiders with bets on favorites? :lol:

[one-two]

Hi again

Aight, I also reviewed the bets of Daan. First, he is doing very well, because often he predicts the big coefs but he isn't playing the way I talk about. By the way 32% IS NOT the profit that Daan has made through the period of evaluation, it is MUCH MUCH MORE but you will understand what I mean a little bit later. But first..... Normally in Holland 2 Div. happen 1 draw in 5 matches - this means 4 non-draws and 1 draw in total of 5 matches. This is average counted. Lets suppose that in 1 year you can find 100 matches that are suitable to bet on. By "suitable" I mean: The lowest coef. of the match should be above 1.60, because under this value it is almost impossible to achieve 1.27 coef. of "1 2" prediction. To clear things out I'll give you an example - Lets pick the game: Betis - Villareal and the Globets coefs. for (1-X-2) which are: (1.70-3.10-5.10). We decide to bet on HOME and AWAY win at the same time. So this means if we have $100 - we put $75 on HOME, and $25 on AWAY. In both cases if the match is not drawn we get total income of $128. This means the "1 2" coef for this match is 1.28.
In Holland Div. 2 the probability for "1 2" in total is about 80%. Now lets calculate: If you bet 100 matches like this per year. 80 matches will end HOME or AWAY wins, so you will have 80*1.28*100 = $ 10240 total income. Now lets calculate the expenses: 100 matches, each $100 -> 100*100 = $ 10000. Now you'll say "Hah, why should I bother playing all season just to win $240 and having to risk $10000?". And here is the main point of all the things I wrote till now. THE REAL risk is not $10000. Just think about the following: if you stake $100 and win $128. The next stake you make is also $100 BUT ! BUT ! these are the same $100 that you have bet the first time, you don't have to pull out another $100 out of your pocket to make the second bet. Imagine you predict correct and the second match (which is not the hardest thing in the world under 80% probability) - you win another $128. Now let's summarize: We have 2*$128 = $256 (INCOME), 2*$100 = 200 (TOTAL BETTING AMOUNT) - the clear profit is: $256 - $200 = $56 but the REAL INVESTMENT is $100. So thus calculated we have 56% clear profit.
That's why I state that Daans profit (or any other punter ) is not 32 % or the one stated in bettingadvice classification, because every single stake he makes is counted as a new stake. I'll try to calculate for you what are the percentages of the clear profits / in comparison with the real investments for all the TOP 10 tipsters and we will see who is the best . Of course I do not blame the people from bettingadvice for this classification !! It also displays very important things for the punters - like consistency for example.
The hardest task for the theory in this case is to calculate what is the most probable INVESTMENT, which is needed to calculate the most important value: The percentage of the clean profit compared to the REAL INVESTMENT. I had a lot of headache calculating this but I think I managed. I will not write about this because it is really very complex and I'm not sure I clarified the method but in the above example the conditions are simple: 100 matches, same stake on each match ($100) and I can say with a great amount of confidence that playing like this you will not fall under $350. This means you real investment will be around $300 (and not $10000 !) and at the end of the year you will have clear profit of $240. So the CLEAR PROFIT would be 240/350 = 69%. So this system ensures 69% clear profit per year and the only thing required is to precisely choose matches that will not draw because if you raise these 80% for non-draw to 85%... well calculate for yourself, I'm tired...

P.S. I will start with the tips when Dutch II starts, and also Norway 2 and during the season all this will be confirmed or rejected.

[AC_28]

Hello guys, i must say this system is good... but, why count with one complette league??? I was picked teams with very few draws. You can bet these teams, or /maybe thats better/ you can wait for nearest draw and after this bet 1 2... for example:

Derby 29 11 5 13 >>> draws are 8,3%
Newcastle 25 15 3 7 >>> 8,6% !!!
Lorient 22 11 3 8 >>> 8,6 %
Westerloo 19 7 1 11 >>> 9,5%
Lubeck 18 7 1 10 >>> 9,5 %
Kocaelispor 18 4 1 13 >>> 9,5%
Mons 19 9 2 8 >>> 11%
Gent 19 9 2 8 >>> 11%
Beveren 19 5 2 12 >>> 11 %
Racing Santander 19 6 2 11 >>> 11%
Espanyol Barcelona 19 6 2 11 >>> 11%
Maritimo 19 7 2 10 >>> 11%

very nice league isnt??? :-)))) 245 matches 97 wins, 122 losts and 26 draws :-)))

[totti10]

yes but,

If you buy "1-2" for @1,28 this is means that you are sell X to bookie for @4,75!!!. no problem,I'll buy it every time
if you play double (1.28x1.28) @1,64, this means playing double with 2 draws for the price of @22.56.

So,in that case you have to win 60/100 and me 4,43/100 times to cover it.

[totti10]

so, it's all about statistic and probabillity.
if you in the 5 bets lose 3 (i wish you all the luck) you are going to lose all profit because high stakes.
same thing with high favourites.
all strategies should be good if you use them in right place at right time.

good luck

[AC_28]

...sure, my friend. no one guaranted me that this system works 100%. santander drew only 2x from 19 matches, and in worst case they can play draw now 3x in row... betting is only nice hobby for me...

[one-two]

Hello guys,

AC_28, I see you get the point but there is something else. Let's pick Maritimo for example - see the home record, and the away record of this team - home form is very good, away form - very poor - that is the kind of team I don't want to bet this way, because in both cases the odds will fall below 1.25. That's why I made an algorythm that searches thru as many leagues in order to find two things: matches that would assure a minimum of 1.25 odds, and min. probability 0.78. I know, when you multiply both numbers it gives value below 1.00. But I don't say I bet all matches the algorythm finds. The probability is calculated according to the home/away performance of the teams in a match. Let's pick today's game from Primera - Alavez - Rayo, my bookie gives me 1.93 for H, and 3.72 for A. This gives in total for "1 2" odds - 1.271. Alavez's record at home so far is: 4 3 2 (6 of 9 non draws equals 66.7%), Rayo's away (3-0-6) - 100% non-draws. The average % non-draws for this game is: 83.3%. So I get odds - 1.27 on 83.3% probability. Next thing to do, after finding such matches is to look further to previous results between these opponents, to your own visions etc. Thus you'll decrease the number of matches to 3-4 which are very probable to happen non draws.
I thought of this algorythm only a week ago and I only have chose 5 games so far, but all were successive, here they are:


/ TEAMS / / ODDS. (1 / 2) / / PROB./ / ODDS ("12")/
Osasuna Racing 2.00 3.50 0.944 1.273
Wolfsburg Schalke 2.35 2.75 0.833 1.267
BETS ON DOUBLES: ODDS 1.613, STAKE: $20, PROFIT: $32.25

Rec_de_Huelva Rayo 2.35 2.85 0.833 1.288
Espanyol Deportivo 2.75 2.35 0.778 1.267
BETS ON DOUBLES: ODDS 1.632, STAKE: $10, PROFIT: $16.32

Manchester_C Fulham 1.82 4.00 0.773 1.251
BETS ON SINGLE: ODDS 1.251, STAKE: $15, PROFIT: $18.76

I will continue evaluating this - the next picks will be:

E1 Alaves Rayo 1.93 3.72 0.833 1.271
G1 Bielefeld B.M***1100;nchen 4.40 1.75 0.875 1.252

TOTAL INVESTMENTS SO FAR: $30 (THE FIRST TWO BETS WERE MADE AT THE SAME TIME)
TOTAL STAKES SO FAR: $45.00
TOTAL PROFIT SO FAR: $67.34
CLEAN PROFIT SO FAR: $22.34

% OF CLEAN PROFIT / INVESTMENTS: 74.5%

WE'LL SEE HOW THIS WILL GO

[AC_28]

Hello friends,

last week i have selected some teams with few draws... on this weekend play draw 3 teams... Lubeck ( 0:0 ) Lorient ( 1:1 ) nad Espanyol ( 2:2 )

for next week

St. Pauli - Lubeck 2,3 - 2,9 >>> 0,7788 >>> 1,28
Niort - Lorient 2,2 - 3,2 >>> 0,7665 >>> 1,30

1,28 x 1,30 = 1,66

Espanyol play with San sebastian, but here fall odd under 1,20...

Good luck guys!!! :-))))

i m not sure if u guys can find 12 bets for J-league (japan)...but the % of "non-draw" match in J-league 2002 is....94%
if some1 know which bookie offers 12 bets for J-league...please reply..

[one-two]

blue-vodka - You actually don't need "12" odds in order to use this system. You just need odds for "1", odds for "2" and to be allowed to bet on singles. I started a topic in "Betting strategy records" called "1 2" SYSTEM. Actually it's better to use 2 different bookies for the "1" and the "2" in order to stake on the highest possible odds for these outcomes. Thus you can raise the total odds from 1.27 (which normally is offered by a single bookie on "1 2" bet) to 1.40 in some cases !

About the Japan league - if you're looking at http://www.beforeyoubet.net/archive/japan.html - yes, you'll see a lot of non-draws but you have to know that in Japan is played overtime and very often the game is won in OT (like in NHL for example). So if you count for the 90 minutes I don't know what will be the percentage.

[phoby]

Let's say there is a game from Primera - Alavez - Rayo, my bookie gives me 1.93 for H, and 3.72 for A. How do u caculate "1 2" odds - 1.271 ?? if i were to bet $20 for the match how do i calculate between how much to bet on "1" and how much on "2" like the example u gave below

"" Let's pick the tonight's match from Portugal (Nacional - Belenenses with coefs. (1 - 2.35; X - 3.22; 2 - 2.82). By the way this probably isn't the best exapmle for "1 2" game but never mind, this is just for example. So, the only thing that concerns us is: 1 - 2.35 and 2 - 2.82. Suppose you have $100. You place $54.60 on "1", and the rest of $45.40 on "2". ""

Thanks In Advance !!

[CG]

Phoby, my way of doing it is this.....

Home odds = 1.93
Away odds = 3.72
Total = (1.93+3.72) 5.65

Divide your stake (100, or 200 etc. 20 in your example) by the total above..... 20/5.65 = 3.53

Multiply the Home odds by the 3.53 (1.93*3.53) = 6.81
Multiply the Away odds by the 3.53 (3.72*3.53) = 13.13

Now the larger total (13.13) obviously goes on the smaller price (Home odds), and the smaller total (6.81) on the larger price (Away odds).

This works out at the following:-

13.13 on Home @ 1.93 = 25.34 returns
6.81 on Away @ 3.72 = 25.33 returns

Obviously this doesnt work out perfectly as the stake was 19.94 and not 20, but its easy, quick and the way I normally use.

ComputerGuy thanks for that, looks very useful, i think i will have to try it out for once instead of just lumping on one result :!:

[one-two]

Originally Posted by phoby

Let's say there is a game from Primera - Alavez - Rayo, my bookie gives me 1.93 for H, and 3.72 for A. How do u caculate "1 2" odds - 1.271 ?? if i were to bet $20 for the match how do i calculate between how much to bet on "1" and how much on "2" like the example u gave below

"" Let's pick the tonight's match from Portugal (Nacional - Belenenses with coefs. (1 - 2.35; X - 3.22; 2 - 2.82). By the way this probably isn't the best exapmle for "1 2" game but never mind, this is just for example. So, the only thing that concerns us is: 1 - 2.35 and 2 - 2.82. Suppose you have $100. You place $54.60 on "1", and the rest of $45.40 on "2". ""

Thanks In Advance !!

Phoby, all the basis of this system is explained in the 1st msg of this thread, as the way of placing the bets:

http://www.bettingadvice.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7506

Of course if you use only 1 bookie and bet on parlays it will be a bit more difficult to spread the stake in order to achieve equal profit by each outcome (in case you don't use the double chance odds, as in most cases the odds for "1 2" on double chance is lower than distributing the stakes on the separate odds for "1" and "2".

[Koffieboer]

He is looking for the answer: (k1*k2)/(k1+k2), which is the same as Computer Guy is doing. CG only first multiplies with S (stake) and has to devide by S again (25.34/20.00) to get 1.27.

[phoby]

* Just note that the higher percentage not always means that the league is good to play. Also we have to evaluate where the ratio between "1"s and "2"s is nearest to 1.00, because then we usually will have coefs. for "1" and "2" which will be more equal in value - this is very important for this kind of betting.

Sorry .. another question.. may i know what u mean by that can u make it simple ?

[one-two]

Originally Posted by phoby

* Just note that the higher percentage not always means that the league is good to play. Also we have to evaluate where the ratio between "1"s and "2"s is nearest to 1.00, because then we usually will have coefs. for "1" and "2" which will be more equal in value - this is very important for this kind of betting.

Sorry .. another question.. may i know what u mean by that can u make it simple ?

What I meant by this statement is that you should search for leagues where the number of home wins and the number of away wins is equal, or near the equal.
For example: If you take Bulgarian Premier league season 2002/2003. There were: 100 home wins, 26 draws, 56 away wins. The non-draws were 86% of all games but there were too many home wins, so this means that the odds for the home wins will be lower (normally no more than 1.70 in most cases). Thus the total odds for "1 2" bet will be decreased, because of the low odds for home win. The ratio: Home wins/Away wins = 100/56 = 1.79
Let's now take my favourite Dutch 2nd division: For season 2002/2003.
There were: 139 home wins, 58 draws, 109 away wins. The non draws were 81% of all games but here you see that the difference between home wins and away wins is quite smaller than the Bulgarian league and the "1 2" odds will get higher, because in many games there will be no actual favourites and bookies will rush to give higher odds for the team that they think will not win. The home/away ratio here is: 139/109 = 1.28, so obviously this is the better league to bet on non-draws.