NBA 21st March

[Satyr]

Guys, can you please add the odds? I'm in a hurry right now so no time to post them. Thanks.



No prob. BGhost
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NBA 2006/2007: 67 W-1 V-55 L +60.32 units
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Mavericks (-2) (1.95 @ Pinnacle) 7 units

Now how many times do we have a chance to back the Mavs at such short number? Very seldom, plus the fact I don't think the Cavs are going to win the East and smell a small losing streak on their hands. Regardless of their yesterday's loss in Charlotte, I believe they won't do well against Dallas. This goes beyond matchups, Cavs at home are a compelling bet against anyone. Well, against almost anyone, when the Mavs are concerned, with a variety of players who can drive to the basket and engage into scoring runs on their own, plus an all versatile Disco Dirk No-Whiskey creating mismatches all the time (I reckon he'll be guarded by Gooden but the Cavs will need much more than a standard defensive display to slow these Mavs down).

Dallas had a few games "off", where they played below their usual level, but whenever they play you get the impression this is a new series of "name the score" you're just watching. Same in NY last night. They just pulled away when felt comfortable, and sealed the deal. Cavs tend to get lost at times, they blew a perfectly good win last night in Charlotte, and regardless of that result, they've been winning games and covering hell of a lot lately, I don't think they do it tonight.

Some think the Mavs have "nothing to play for", but they're wrong, this team isn't about hunting no records, they won't break their legs trying to win 70 games (after all, now it's virtually impossible to achieve that), but they like winning, and after a sub par game against Chaunceyless Pistons on Sunday I think they step up big and take this one. Won't go into matchups much, I think Diop and Dampier take care of their business inside, and Dirk puts on another solid performance, plus I believe the Mavs are going to do a great job in the defensive part, I leaned under at first, but it seems the books are seeing this one as most cappers do, a game of slower pace, I wanted 190 or better to take the under here, with 187 the Mavs remain my only play so far.


Minnesota (+6,5) (2.01 @ Pinnacle) 3 units

Sacto are dead meat if you ask me. No way this team is reaching playoffs, not after they failed to click on the road across the East and now are returning home with slim hopes of bouncing back. The Wolves are pretty hopeless themselves, but I don't think they fold just yet, even though the playoffs are mission impossible by now, they should have a solid chance in this one.
Sacramento could miss both Kenny Thomas and Brad Miller, but that only comes as an icing to the cake, as Kings' frontcourt takes a serious blow if BOTH are missing, even though they were pretty poor lately to begin with.
I just don't see Kings killing the Wolves here, even if they win it should be with a small number.

Leans: Orlando +6, Seattle-Washington over 212.[img][/img]

[celtic_nm]

601 Miami Heat -5 1.962 1.455 OVER 184 2.060
602 Atlanta Hawks +5 1.943 3.000 UNDER 184 1.862

603 Orlando Magic +6 1.952 3.100 OVER 195 1.952
604 Toronto Raptors -6 1.952 1.435 UNDER 195 1.952

605 Charlotte Bobcats +7.5 1.935 3.700 OVER 198.5 1.952
606 Boston Celtics -7.5 1.971 1.333 UNDER 198.5 1.952

609 Dallas Mavericks -3 1.909 1.649 OVER 187 1.901
610 Cleveland Cavaliers +3 2.000 2.440 UNDER 187 2.01

611 Indiana Pacers +13 1.909 8.000 OVER 184 1.926
612 San Antonio Spurs -13 2.000 1.10 UNDER 184 1.980

613 Washington Wizards +3.5 1.909 2.480 OVER 212.5 2.050
614 Seattle Supersonics -3.5 2.000 1.633 UNDER 212.5 1.870

615 Minnesota Timb. +6.5 1.962 3.400 OVER 199.5 2.000
616 Sacramento Kings -6.5 1.943 1.385 UNDER 199.5 1.909

no odds for Milwaukee Bucks - La Clippers

[dyigi]

Toronto Raptors (-6) - Orlando Magic (+6)

Raptors lost 2 games in row, lose at New York and at home vs Rockets! Last game at New York they scored only 74 pts!They are 1st in Atlantic divison and 4th on the East on other side Magic is fighting for 8th spot with Nets! Raptors are 23-10 at home and 24-15 on Eastern conference, Magic 11-23 on road and 18-22 on Eastern conference! Raptors are after Wizards the best home team on East and very intersting will be under the basket, Bosh (22.7 ppg) - Howard (18 ppg) but key for win will be at Backcourt -Ford 14.5 ppg , Parker (0 pts vs Knicks, vs Rockets didnt play), also Bargnani 11.5 ppg is playing great this season because u expect tith score for those 2 big man! I just see that Raptors have to back on winnig side and Magic could try to get 8th spot in next games! 5 units!

GL

[viper22]

I agree with Toronto pick,i already took it with 6/10..
dyigi already mention almost all that i wanted to mention but now i will add a litlle bit more:
statistic
Toronto in last 10 home games
W5 L5
scoring average 100.9 points per game
alowing average 97.3 points per game

Orlando in last 10 road games
W3 L7
scoring average 92.4 points per game
alowing average 100.7 points per game

H2H
08.02.2007 Toronto vs. Orlando 113:103
05.01.2006 Toronto vs. Orlando 121:97
10.03.2005 Toronto vs. Orlando 106:96
04.01.2005 Toronto vs. Orlando 105:94
05.02.2004 Toronto vs. Orlando 110:90

Average H2H score 111:96 (based on statistic)

Although Orlando played great against Miami and surely their motivation rised i will back home team this time,2 loses in a row for Toronto,i think it is time to bounce back, i hope that C.Bosh will repeat show from last game which was played 08.02.1007,Bosh then scored career high 41 point,Also i expect the same from Bargnani(he also scored career best against Orlando 13.12.2006 23 points)

I already played this game but i would like to hear opinions from our experts,Satyr,Silvio..
Thx in advance..

[Satyr]

The thing with Toronto is, they're not losing by chance. Their usual main weapon is having two or even three point guards, so throughout the game their rhythm and rock distribution would stay at a rather stable, constant level.

Jose Calderon should be back but this is a momentum team, and they could need a few quarters to get back into winning mode. Orlando doesn't have depth but they have a couple of sharp shooters and more importantly, Howard on the glass, who should get the best out of Bosh. I'm leaning points here (Magic +6,5), will probably skip it though.

[SonFred]

I think that the Cavs had a turning point with the OT loss last night.

In my opinion the Mavs are a to good defending team to let one man army Lebron do any remarkable harm....

I predict that Cavs will shoot about 45 % from the field and Lebron will struggle to get his game going. It will benefit Dallas that they have so many players who are able to drop 30 on any given night.....

I see a clear away victory and Dallas covering the spread....

So I can say that i agree with Satyr on this one......but please let me know if you disagree and lets discuss this exciting matchup more....

[Satyr]

I agree, it could turn out as you said, but Dallas all round D can actually let LeBron pour in his 35 but limit others, there's so much option when you're backing Dallas. The way they went in shutdown mode in Detroit in the 2nd half proves the point. Dallas just has more than Cleveland can handle if you ask me.

Welcome aboard & good luck tonight.

[Silvio]

If Dallas can handle LeBron how comes he scored 39 at Dallas, last season 36 points, (season before that 19 only but trend is obvious ) and at Cleveland Lebron scored last season 46 points in blowout Cavs win 107-94 over Mavs and season before 36 in another blowout, 100-80. Well, they cannot handle him, surely Josh Howard is not best person on world for job of guarding Lebron. Perhaps they could limit king James if they would care to change their game plan, but who's Cleveland? They see them tonight and it will be almost 12 months before they'll see them again. If Cavs were West team and possible playoff opponent surely Avery would come out with some cunning plan to at least try to limit LeBron, but why vasting time and energy, only teams they really care about are Spurs and Suns. I'm thinking about +3.0 for Cavs in a view of mutual matches history in era of king James. But I was hoping for something better like +4.5 or even +5.5 (as Spurs get versus Mavs), +2.0 bookies opened shocked me, in a view of how much better Mavs are handling close games, I incline to agreee value is actually on Mavs on such a short spread.

[Satyr]

Fair points, that's why I'm thinking LeBron will actually score 30+ tonight, but Cavs still lose. Anyways, GL tonight.

[Satyr]

News:

Andrea Bargnani will miss a substantial part of the rest of the Raptors regular season after having an emergency appendectomy early this morning, according to published reports.

[SonFred]

I think you have some great info about the match however i think that we will see a gave a little bit like the Mavs vs Lakers....

I dont say that the Mavs will win by double digit but they did a great job at putting lots of pressure on Kobe last time and he went 6-19 on shooting.....I think that Lebron will struggle to night getting his game going....

[Silvio]

And my leans for today

Milwaukee Bucks - La Clippers under (195.0, I suppose, odds not out yet)
As somebody mentioned, new Bucks coach K... is emphasizing defence, with Bucks having one of best league offenses yet having poor W-L record You don't have to be scientist to see where the problem is. Anyway, results are so far so good, Spurs limited to 90, Bobcats to 91, nothing spectacular, but improvement. Without Livingston, Clippers are more half-court team, for Bucks Redd will be out or playing just recovered from illnes, I see both team around 90, certainly 95 at most.

Atlanta Hawks - Miami Heat
Heat -5.0
Still adjusting to life without Wade, Heat won 88-81 over Hawks with JJ at that time despite only 14 points by foul-troubled Shaq, 5 points by Jason Williams playing only 24 minutes after recently coming from injury and with only 5 points by Haslem (mistery to me, he destroyed Hawks with 21 point and 17 rebounds in November overtime win at Atlanta with Shaq out). With poor Hawks' frontcourt helpless against Shaq and normal production by this three players, not 24 points combined, I can see easy away team win. No fear of tired oldies in Heat time today, they had 2 days rest after loss to Orlando that followed magnificent 9 wins streak.


Boston Celtics - Charlotte Bobcats
over 198.5
Those two teams are playing for nothing, does anyone thinks they'll care about defence, tactical discipline and similar stuff tonight? I don't. Problem is that after losing Okafor, then Sean May and Brevin Knight, Bobcats lost another offensive weapon yesterday, Derek Anderson. And instead they got defensive minded center Othella Harington back from injury list, but still leaning to over here, Bobcats are not playing some defensive giants tonight, but Celtics playing for fun (and pride) lately.


Edit
Found some time and updated my BA forum NBA record
yesterday 0-3 / -18.00 units
season 77-71-3 / -31.26 units

That's bad, good analyses but losing picks, it's best to read my posts, then pick something else

[Silvio]

Milwaukee Bucks - LA Clippers
under 196.0 @1.91 Pinnacle 5/10

Bucks opened -6.5 so bookie assumes Redd is ready to go, I'm taking medium stake in that case, for explanation see previous post.

BTW
Clippers +6.5 not an option for me despite good Clippers win at Chicago yesterday (which drags me away of Bucks -6.5 anyway). It was rather poor Bulls performance yesterday (especially Ben Gordon and complete bench) than some master piece by Clippers yesterday. But main reason for not considering it is fact that Clippers are playing 3rd in 4 nights with Cassell probably out again and Tim Thomas questionable with bruised left elbow after landing on a TV camera yesterday after blocking a shot.

[godspicks]

Wednesday, March 21, 2007



NBA
CLEVELAND +3 Dallas
This is a top dichotomous ATS and SU game. We discount 98 percent of trends, but this has proven to be the exception to the rule. Explained in our articles around the Net, basically if a team has a great SU record but horrid ATS record or visa versa, you ride for that to continue as it is the sign of which teams are most under or overvalued.

Dallas is 55-7 their last 62, but 1-4 their last five ATS and 3-6 their last nine. Quietly Cleveland is picking it up themselves. They have won six straight at home and are 26-8 at home SU this year.

[[/u]

[SonFred]

Seems like the people at DocSports disagree with me.

6-Unit Play – #610 Take Cleveland +3 Over Dallas (8 p.m., Wednesday)

The Mavs are the big public play of the day and we love to go against the public in situations like this. All the press lately has been about how unbeatable the Mavs are, but Cleveland is playing some of their best ball of the season right now. They had won eight straight until last night’s OT loss at Charlotte. But that loss was not a bad thing. It gave us a better line here and also showed that the Cavs were looking ahead to this match-up. This one should have Cleveland bringing their “A” game. A win here would establish them as the team to beat in the East and would show that their recent success is no fluke. The Cavs have been a dream for bettors as of late, as they have won 19 of their last 23 against the number. And keep in mind that they are a borderline public team that often deals with inflated numbers. Both teams have been explosive on offense as of late but the Cavs have the better recent numbers defensively. Also, the Cavs have covered the last four meetings and they won the last two in this building straight-up.

Best of luck -- Doc's Sports

[imperial]

Originally Posted by godspicks

Wednesday, March 21, 2007



NBA
CLEVELAND +3 Dallas
This is a top dichotomous ATS and SU game. We discount 98 percent of trends, but this has proven to be the exception to the rule. Explained in our articles around the Net, basically if a team has a great SU record but horrid ATS record or visa versa, you ride for that to continue as it is the sign of which teams are most under or overvalued.

Dallas is 55-7 their last 62, but 1-4 their last five ATS and 3-6 their last nine. Quietly Cleveland is picking it up themselves. They have won six straight at home and are 26-8 at home SU this year.

[[/u]

.. copy/pasting every night..

Here are my thoughts for tonight:

Hawks (+4.5) - Heat (-4.5)1.952@Pinnacle

Despite the fact that Hawks easily crushed Kings in their last game and are doing pretty well recenly, I think that without J.Johnson, Heat will be too much for them.
Shaq will find it easy tonight, thats the first thing as he will be guarded by Zaza (and of course, Zaza should not score more than 15 points, even with the fact that Shaq is old guy it is very hard to play against him). As well as Posey and Haslem will be hard to stop, all thanks to poor frontline of hawks. Second thing is that, Heat, despite being in 6th spot already are not safe yet as teams like Nets, Magic and Pacers are right behind. I like the fact, that Heat lost to Magic in their last game, snapping a row of 9 wins, because It made them realise that nothing is finished till its finished and at this point of the season and ,especially, at the current situation in the standings - every game is crucial. Heat have just recently defeated Hawks by 7 and Atlanta had J.Johnson then, now they will not.
So generally, -4.5 is just great in my eyes and I will take it with medium-high stakes. 7 units

Spurs (-14) - Pacers (+14) 1.962@Pinnacle 4 units
Spurs - Pacers 13.75@Pinnacle 1 unit

Well, a month ago, Pacers could not think that at some point they will be out of top 8 in East. And things are even worse now. Pacers are without Jermaine, Daniels and Harrison, while every game is a must-win for them and to make things worse they are playing against Spurs now and then Heat, Bulls, Cavs and Nets as follows. A critical situation indeed. So I might assume that they will at least try hard and +14 is rather nice in this situation.
On the other hand, Spurs lost two in a row and look a bit sleepy now as they would rest before play-offs. They could either bounce back tonight or they could even lose again. 13.75 on Pacers is huge and in this situation has some value.
So I have decided to put 1 unit on Pacers ML even without Jermaine and Daniels and 4 units on +14.

GL

[Silvio]

Originally Posted by Silvio

And my leans for today

Atlanta Hawks - Miami Heat
Heat -5.0
Still adjusting to life without Wade, Heat won 88-81 over Hawks with JJ at that time despite only 14 points by foul-troubled Shaq, 5 points by Jason Williams playing only 24 minutes after recently coming from injury and with only 5 points by Haslem (mistery to me, he destroyed Hawks with 21 point and 17 rebounds in November overtime win at Atlanta with Shaq out). With poor Hawks' frontcourt helpless against Shaq and normal production by this three players, not 24 points combined, I can see easy away team win. No fear of tired oldies in Heat time today, they had 2 days rest after loss to Orlando that followed magnificent 9 wins streak.


Boston Celtics - Charlotte Bobcats
over 198.5
Those two teams are playing for nothing, does anyone thinks they'll care about defence, tactical discipline and similar stuff tonight? I don't. Problem is that after losing Okafor, then Sean May and Brevin Knight, Bobcats lost another offensive weapon yesterday, Derek Anderson. And instead they got defensive minded center Othella Harington back from injury list, but still leaning to over here, Bobcats are not playing some defensive giants tonight, but Celtics playing for fun (and pride) lately.


Edit
Found some time and updated my BA forum NBA record
yesterday 0-3 / -18.00 units
season 77-71-3 / -31.26 units

That's bad, good analyses but losing picks, it's best to read my posts, then pick something else

Heat -4.5 @1.95 Pinnacle 6/10

CHA- BOS over 198.5 @1.91 Pinnacle 6/10

I didn't change my mind, however I don't see this bets as worth of some high stake. Being bit tired I'll rather not write anymore explanations, seems to me I already wrote essential.

[vuk]

where i can find the players who will play for the teams? please sombody help me.

[infamousmoloz]

J.Johnson is 100% out for Hawks ?

[SonFred]

Originally Posted by vuk

where i can find the players who will play for the teams? please sombody help me.

Espn.com, covers.com or maybe nba.com

I am not sure but it is a place to start

[Silvio]

Originally Posted by unfairbets

J.Johnson is 100% out for Hawks ?

He will return for playoffs if Hawks qualify. As they surely wont qualify, it means we will see him in action next time at November. Unless he is going to play for team USA this summer on America qualifications for Peking Olympics.

[infamousmoloz]

Originally Posted by Silvio

He will return for playoffs if Hawks qualify. As they surely wont qualify, it means we will see him in action next time at November. Unless he is going to play for team USA this summer on America qualifications for Peking Olympics.

Thanks Silvio !
vuk , http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pag....html&refsite=

[bubba]

Have you a news about condition of Michael Redd??

[Makedonc]

Originally Posted by bubba

Have you a news about condition of Michael Redd??

Milwaukee Bucks guard Michael Redd missed practice Monday and is questionable for tonight’s game against the visiting Los Angeles Clippers.

Oddsmakers have not yet released a line for this game.

A club spokesperson told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that Redd had a stomach virus and will be reevaluated. He leads the Bucks in scoring with a 27.2 average through 46 games.

From covers.com

[bubba]

Originally Posted by Makedonc

Milwaukee Bucks guard Michael Redd missed practice Monday and is questionable for tonight’s game against the visiting Los Angeles Clippers.

Oddsmakers have not yet released a line for this game.

A club spokesperson told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that Redd had a stomach virus and will be reevaluated. He leads the Bucks in scoring with a 27.2 average through 46 games.

From covers.com

Thanks Makedonc!!

[Nin0]

What you said about the grand salami?

Over 1560.5 Points -115

Under 1560.5 Points -115

[Rogino]

Taken from http://nba.pickingbets.com/index.php

Maurice Williams Over 22.5 points + assists @1.91 bookie Greek 1/10

When I first saw this line, I liked it much. Then I checked Maurice performances last games. Not really impressive, just average. In some games even underperformed. His figures are 17.6 PPG and 6.3 APG what again makes this line.

After this research I went to check how is Clippers defense doing against opponent's point guards since Livingston and Cassell are injured. Wow and almost all PG's had perfect games against Hart or Ewing.

Michael Redd is probable, but he had some stomach virus. Villanueva is out. Longterm Boykins too. Maurice is normally their 2nd - 3rd option. He penetrates good with solid outside shooting abilities. He should use this favorable guard defense on b2b of LAC. Bucks play their third game under new coach and it is the only game this week so are well rested and concentrated.

well people im pounding the Mavs for one reason and one reason alone!!!

Originally Posted by godspicks

Wednesday, March 21, 2007



NBA
CLEVELAND +3 Dallas


[[/u]

You feel free to look into this guys record at this place and get back to me!!! Fade city!!!!!

$500 ~ Dall Mavs -3 -105

[Wbl]

Originally Posted by Silvio

And my leans for today

Milwaukee Bucks - La Clippers under (195.0, I suppose, odds not out yet)
As somebody mentioned, new Bucks coach K... is emphasizing defence, with Bucks having one of best league offenses yet having poor W-L record You don't have to be scientist to see where the problem is. Anyway, results are so far so good, Spurs limited to 90, Bobcats to 91, nothing spectacular, but improvement. Without Livingston, Clippers are more half-court team, for Bucks Redd will be out or playing just recovered from illnes, I see both team around 90, certainly 95 at most.

Atlanta Hawks - Miami Heat
Heat -5.0
Still adjusting to life without Wade, Heat won 88-81 over Hawks with JJ at that time despite only 14 points by foul-troubled Shaq, 5 points by Jason Williams playing only 24 minutes after recently coming from injury and with only 5 points by Haslem (mistery to me, he destroyed Hawks with 21 point and 17 rebounds in November overtime win at Atlanta with Shaq out). With poor Hawks' frontcourt helpless against Shaq and normal production by this three players, not 24 points combined, I can see easy away team win. No fear of tired oldies in Heat time today, they had 2 days rest after loss to Orlando that followed magnificent 9 wins streak.


Boston Celtics - Charlotte Bobcats
over 198.5
Those two teams are playing for nothing, does anyone thinks they'll care about defence, tactical discipline and similar stuff tonight? I don't. Problem is that after losing Okafor, then Sean May and Brevin Knight, Bobcats lost another offensive weapon yesterday, Derek Anderson. And instead they got defensive minded center Othella Harington back from injury list, but still leaning to over here, Bobcats are not playing some defensive giants tonight, but Celtics playing for fun (and pride) lately.


Edit
Found some time and updated my BA forum NBA record
yesterday 0-3 / -18.00 units
season 77-71-3 / -31.26 units

That's bad, good analyses but losing picks, it's best to read my posts, then pick something else

Silvio my mate, tonight I'm dancing as you play and going to take two of your three pick MB and BC. I am so tired and ain't in mood for further searching and reading.
So if you pass tonight tomorow we are grabing for a beer. My treat!

[albertpujols]

The Sonics will be without Ray Allen tonight. Though he was able to gut it out and hit a key three-pointer in the fourth quarter, it was clear Sunday in Portland that Allen was not moving well. He shot just 4-for-19 from the field in that game. Allen visited a doctor yesterday and will be day-to-day for the foreseeable future, depending on how his ankle feels.

Damien Wilkins will replace Ray in the starting lineup tonight.

to read at supersonics.com

So i think under in this game.