NBA 26/1

[Silvio]

odds from Pinnacle
away teams listed first

no odds for 3 games

BOSTON @TORONTO
Boston: Szczerbiak questionable, he might return . Al Jefferson (sprained ankle in last game) is expected to play .
Toronto: TJ Ford questionable .

CLEVELAND @PHILADELPHIA
Lebron: X-rays on his sore toe came negative, so he should be all right tommorrow. Betcris opened it at Cleveland -4.5 and U/O 185.5 then removed from offer, so maybe there is some problem with Lebron after all?

MIAMI @NEW YORK
Shaq is back, but he played only 14 minutes at Wednesday.
New York: Center Curry (strained calf in last game) doubtfull, PG Marbury probable.

[imperial]

Bucks (+11) - Suns (-11)

After terrible performance in last 2 days, I have found another bet, which suits me nicely. Injuries scattered and poor Bucks will host the best team in NBA IMO - Suns. I will not speak about Suns too much - it is clear, they are doing very well, winning everything, trashing bad teams, stopping good ones..
On the other hand, Bucks are still without M.Williams and Redd - their two leaders. It is obvious that without those two players, Bucks are struggling big time. These teams have already played last month and then Suns won 122-116, by just 6 points. However, Redd scored 37 and Williams 31.. Now Bucks, will miss those guys and I think, will be trashed by strong and fast Suns. C.Villanueva is injured as well.

I rarely bet on such big handicaps,especially with high stakes, but I feel very confident about this one. Maximum stake

GL

Pick: A, Odds: 2.00, Stake: 10, Bookmaker: Pinnacle

[bossboss]

some Leans / Trends .. No actual bet yet

1. Hawks +9 and under 179.5 @ Magic (H2H trend Hawks 5-2 and under 5-2)

2. Phil +4.5 and Over 185.5 vs Clevland (H2H trend over is 7-0 and if 76ers can win in clevland , they can cover at home)

3.Memphis +13.5 and under 213.5 @ Spurs ..(H2H under is 8-1 in SA and 14-5 overall and if the game go under memphis will cover)

4. Kings @NO under 191.5 (H2H trend under is 10-4 .. althought i thought over is more likely ..

5.Bucks +10.5 and over 220 vs suns (H2H bucks are 8-1-1 and over is 6-0)

6. Detriot -6 and over 204 vs Wiz (H2H trend Wizards are 2-6 in Detriot and over is 7-2)

7. Portland +10.5 and under 180 @ Houston (H2H trend Portlnd are 7-3-1 and under is 5-2)

8. Utah -3 and over 215.5 vs Nuggets (Nuggets are 0-4 in last 4 H2H .. high scoring game makes it also easier for utah to cover)

[Lehmakomm]

taken from www.nbatip.com

Suns -10.5

Take away the 4 top players on any NBA team and there exists the strong possibility that team really sinks. This really has been the case with the Bucks as they have lost 9 out of last 10 games and averaged just 93.2 points over this period after starting the season as one of the league’s best scoring teams. Without so many starters (Michael Redd, Charlie Villanueva, Bobby Simmons and Mo Williams) the Bucks only chance to win is to keep the scoring low and hope that both Bogut and Boykins have a great night. But that’s especially difficult against the high-flying Suns. The Suns if anybody have the ability to turn up the pace and score. So, this style of basketball is exactly what the short-staffed Bucks don’t want to play right now.

The Suns at the same time are the hottest team in the league. They won their 15th consecutive game Wednesday, running their record to 34-8. Those guys seem to be winning with ease and with comfort. Whatever the game calls for, they have managed to get the job done. Their 5 starters are that kind of characters who need challenges and now flirting to set a franchise record with their 16th consecutive victory might be just enough motivation for them to keep on playing at such a high level.

Tonight’s game is going to be very difficult for the struggling Bucks, as they can't keep up with the Suns scoring. The Suns are playing in a nice rhythm and they love playing on the road (10-0 against Eastern Conference teams on the road) so the Bucks really have to play a perfect game to be competitive in this one. We expect the Suns to the take care of business and cover the spread -10.5 points offered by bookies. Medium stakes.


Lehmakomm

[vljubej]

Originally Posted by bossboss

3.Memphis +13.5 and under 213.5 @ Spurs ..(H2H under is 8-1 in SA and 14-5 overall and if the game go under memphis will cover)

Just a thought: H2H in this case is useless, IMO.
Memphis plays another game since Tony Barone stepped in.

Nevertheless, I'm on under also, mainly becasue of San Antonio.

[Silvio]

Boston news
Jefferson (their best big man) says he'll play tonight, coach Rivers not 100% sure about it
Szczerbiak (important shooter) still out
Scalabrine(not important PF) back after 7 games out

Boston

Celtics coach Doc Rivers will wait until shootaround this morning to be fully convinced Jefferson can play. The Celtics are being extra cautious with all injuries, but Jefferson did not need further convincing.

"It's a little sore, but I'm expecting to play," said Jefferson. "I wanted to come back last night, but they wanted me to be careful and make sure it was nothing serious. I say I just tweaked it. I must have stepped on somebody's foot. I tweaked it early in the game, but it wasn't bad. Then, it happened again.

[Palfy]

I try this for a little

21.5/T.Duncan UNDER

This year Duncan isn't so dominant like the others, exactly like whole team.
This month he throws over this margin only 3 times in 13 games. Last time he scored more than 21,5 in last match against Houston, even 37, what is his the most efficient score this year. From matches before we can see 21, 17, 12, 26, 21, 18, 19, 16, 10, 18, 24, 18.

I saw last game against Memphis at home, and Tim wasn't impressive. He scored 21, but today I think he goes a bit lower against Gasol and co.

3/10

[Silvio]

Shaq news
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald...l/16547772.htm

Shaq is expected to play about 15 minutes in first few games back

O'Neal said he expects to average about 15 minutes in his first few games back. He came off the bench to replace Alonzo Mourning late in the first quarter and played early into the second. He then played late in the third and early in the fourth.

Miami will play slower in those 15 minutes, it will be very frustrating for under/over bettors, one moment bet will look lost, next won, then again ...

Until then, the Heat will operate at different paces. When O'Neal is on the court, the team will play at a slower pace and work the ball more inside. O'Neal attempted six shots but had several more touches in the post in his limited playing time. When he was not in the game, the Heat played at an up-tempo pace.

Shaq might miss 2nd of b-2-b games

The Heat did not practice Thursday, and O'Neal spent part of the day in a treatment session with head trainer Ron Culp. Whether O'Neal will play in both games of the back-to-back set has not been determined.

Heat guard Jason Williams, who had offseason knee surgery, did not play consecutive nights for much of the first half of the season because of stiffness, and for precautionary reasons.

Heat interim coach Ron Rothstein said the plan would be similar for O'Neal, whose status is day-to-day.

[Greek08]

Toronto Raptors - Boston Celtics +8.5

In our local bookie this is the hcp and i want to ask the experts here if it is a value bet (Toronto -8.5) since Celtics has 1-9 in last ten matches and Toronto 7-3, plus their best two scorers (Szczerbiak and Pierce) are out?
Also 15 days ago two teams met at Boston and Raptors won with 95-86.
Thanks in advance.

[Silvio]

Originally Posted by Greek08

Toronto Raptors - Boston Celtics +8.5

In our local bookie this is the hcp and i want to ask the experts here if it is a value bet (Toronto -8.5) since Celtics has 1-9 in last ten matches and Toronto 7-3, plus their best two scorers (Szczerbiak and Pierce) are out?
Also 15 days ago two teams met at Boston and Raptors won with 95-86.
Thanks in advance.

I don't see value as injury plagued Boston lost 9 games in a row, but only once they lost by double digits, I would say it's fair handicap set by bookies. However, home win is very probable, so maybe You can take it in combo.

BTW
TJ Ford probably out for Toronto
http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/175187
No word about him in article, but in probable starters Juan Calderon is listed. Calderon nicely replaced Ford in previous two games, but now there is no Calderon's spark from the bench, 3rd PG Darrick Martin is not producing.

[Greek08]

Silvio wrote:

I don't see value as injury plagued Boston lost 9 games in a row, but only once they lost by double digits, I would say it's fair handicap set by bookies. However, home win is very probable, so maybe You can take it in combo.

BTW
TJ Ford probably out for Toronto
http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/175187
No word about him in article, but in probable starters Juan Calderon is listed. Calderon nicely replaced Ford in previous two games, but now there is no Calderon's spark from the bench, 3rd PG Darrick Martin is not producing.

Thanks a lot !

[Knockoutpicks]

Phoenix/Milwaukee OVER

Forensic ATS information on this game: Milwaukee over 12-2 opponent called for 21 or less fouls per game, over 21-5 home opponent road winning % greater than .600, over 16-5 to Pacific, over 21-10 opponent +3 or better points per game scoring ratio, over 16-3 opponent +6 or better points per game ratio, over 14-5 in non-conference games, over 40-24 after scoring 105 or more points, Phoenix over 20-8 to Central, over 22-9 road favorites 5-10.5,

[Satyr]

LeBron James is ruled out of tonight's game in Philadelphia, Cavs radio has reported.

[Ghost]

Originally Posted by Satyr

LeBron James is ruled out of tonight's game in Philadelphia, Cavs radio has reported.

Thanks, I was about to bet on cavs

[cccc1]

[quote="Silvio"]

Originally Posted by Greek08

Toronto Raptors - Boston Celtics +8.5
BTW
TJ Ford probably out for Toronto
http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/175187
No word about him in article, but in probable starters Juan Calderon is listed. Calderon nicely replaced Ford in previous two games, but now there is no Calderon's spark from the bench, 3rd PG Darrick Martin is not producing.

Jose Calderon, and yes he is nicely replacing ford

Anyways, I would put a small stakes on Charlotte ML at +500. I don't think they are that weak, and although chances are slim, definately worth a small gamble .

[razdrak]

With Billups and C Webb looking realy strong , i think Detroit can t miss the win in tonight s game vs WAS.
They won the last 3 games and against WAS the last two H2H.
I really wanna see if Webber will confirm at Det ... because he s a very difficult player. Against Charlotte he scored 7 of 9 from the ground and had 6 rebounds and Det won by 9.
So , imo , Detroit -5,5 @1,93 with medium stakes played at Canbet.

[hagen.b]

[Silvio]

Toronto Raptors - Boston Celtics
Raptors ML @1.24 Pinancle 9/10
As I said above, no guarantee Raptors will cover handicap, recently they won Charlotte by 21 and New Orleans by 2, but win is pretty sure. With bunch of new good players this season Raptors improvement was expected, but what I not expecetd is some kind of maturity of this team. Especially after Bosh returned from injury, they are almost never not losing as favourites, so I don't see some chances for injury plagued Celtics here.

Philadelphia 76ers - Cleveland Cavaliers
Sixers ML @2.01 Pinnacle 5/10
Cavaliers are missing Lebron James tonight being in deep crisis already. Only 2 wins in 7 last matches and on West tour coach Mike Brown found reason in his team unwisely accepting fast game style of West teams. Then they came to home and lost to ultraslow Magic, then were embarassed by loss to total outsiders Sixers.

http://www.cleveland.com/cavs/plaind...120.xml&coll=2

According to recent emails, fans are tired of watching the players laughing on the bench during these losses or shrugging off Brown’s suggestions, not to mention clanging free throws off the rim with regularity.

General Manager Danny Ferry, is as puzzled by this downturn as anyone.
“I don’t think any of us are happy with how we’ve played,” he said. “We have not played like we can. Obviously, we’re all scratching our heads.”

No fighting spirit and team management have no clue where from came downfall. Philadelphia is not playing good as of late, but against out of form and Lebronless Cavs I would even take Prokom to win.

[Silvio]

New York Knicks - Miami Heat
Miami ML @1.63 Pinnacle 8/10

It's all about centers. Paradoxally it is unimportant that Shaq is back, but Curry is probably out for Knicks and that is crucial. He's only good center they have, best scorer this season and most consistent player of the team. At Monday Miami won New York without Wade and Shaq. Heat started game 29-3 and destroyed Knicks by 40-12 in first quarter. Today Shaq will play for 15 minutes and Wade full game, while Curry lost their best scorer and only good center Curry, he got injured in last game. Knicks would like to revenge for Monday's loss but without Curry, not fully fit Marbury and against fully motivated Miami (chasing 1st place on East, down 6 wins already because of superstar's injuries) I give them very thin chances.

[Silvio]

Detroit Pistons - Washington Wizards
Pistons -5.0 @1.93 Pinnacle 6/10

Washington is in no good form, losing away, at home winning barely in last seconds. I think Arenas is not fully fit (calf) , he scored over 30 in only 2 games of last 8. Now that he is voted for All-star starting lineup, he might slow down even more. Pistons are complete after Billups well recovered from injury, with Webber (so far) nicely fitting in (12 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists per game). Their problem is that most of Pistons players takes regular season as boring waiting playoffs to start. It shows mostly against weak teams, while against better teams especially possible playoff opponents in East playoff they are playing with more intensivity, possibly tring to establish authority. Wizards fit in that category being only half a win behind Pistons in East standings. If Pistons will take this game seriously, I see no problems in them covering this spred easily against bad away team from Washington.

edit: it's -5.5 at betsafe, so I changed bookei to Pinnacle

[Wbl]

New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat

Miami beat them home court three days ago without Wade. I don't see reason why tonight would be any different.
Including that Shaq may run thru court may rais Miami's team spirit and moral.
So for me Heaters go for win tonight.

My pick: New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat

Units: 7.5/10

Good luck!

[Juninho]

What do you think about Denver?
Iverson, Anthony und J.R. Smith are great together. Utah lost against Memphis. Any Opinions? Value on Denver?

[Silvio]

New Orleans Hornets - Sacramento Kings
Hornets ML @1.97 Pinancle 6/10

As Macot would say, two teams travelling in diferrent directions and I'm following the trend. Queens are 3-8 SU in last 11 with 1-10 ATS winning only East team decimated by injuries(Nets, Bucks, Celtics). Hornets are still without Chris Paul and Pedja, but they have in form players currently: guards Devin Brown, Janerro Pargo and Bobby Jackson, swingmen Rasual Butler and Desmond Mason and big men David West and Tyson Chandler, that was enough for 6-1 ATS in last 7 games. No doubt there is no harmony in Sacramento locker room and I saw them as dead team now unlike bookies do.


Utah Jazz - Denver Nuggets
Jazz -3.5 @1.99 Pinnacle 5/10

I don't believe in this revamped Nuggets at all. Three good players Anthony, Iverson and Camby but there's no three balls for all three of them. Jazz is tough matchup for Nuggets, Kirilenko is just going out of slump and will guard Melo, Okur and Boozer will not be able to limit Camby but they surely will outscore him (it's two-on-one after all) and give him hell a lot of job in defense, while Deron Williams is playing better than Steve Nash this week. Don't lough, kid produced 36 assists with 1 (one) turnover over two this week Jazz matches. Maybe I'm biased, maybe it's better to apply 'wait and see' with new Nuggets, but it is their first game since Melo's return against 50%+ team and if I'm right we'll not see such good odds against them later.

[Juninho]

Thanks a lot Silvio.

[Amanthino]

hmm odds on Wiz dropping quite a lot everywhere ... normal procedure or ... ?

[FiDu]

OK, I have lost and lots of picks today:

76ers (-1) - Cavs

I was wondering a lot whether I should take this bet. I mean - damn, this lousy Philadelphia for 2.01? Philadelphia who plays 3/4? But then I took a deeper look. Some important things - 76ers played only 17 out of 43 games at home. Most of them they played without AI or with some other injuries and/or internal problems. At the moment they've won two last games, including game in Cleveland (I will talk about it later) mostly thanks to Iguodala, Miller and Korver. but it's not about 76ers here. It's more about Cavs. Believe it or not, I was considering Philly +5 when everyone thought LBJ is in. After all, Cavs lost to Sixers just two days ago. Yeah, it was their free throwing offnight what killed them, but Cavs show lack of consistency for few seasons now. After all, they are 9-13 on road, 1-4 in last five winning only to 5-men Warriors. When news about James popped, I was expecting to ee Cavs +5 or so, but to still get them as favourites here. Ufff, that is just crazy or as Joey Tribbiani would say 'kuku'. King James is not only Cavs franchise player, but a MJ-caliber guy. He plays 42 MPG, has 27.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG and 6.1 APG. There is no quality replacement for him, apart from Pavlovic... Well, with all respect to Sasha, Iguodala is far too atheltic for Serb, who uses to play 5-15 minutes. Also, Cavs lack scorer, a guy who you can pass the ball to and know he will score.
Bottom line is - for 3 years now we're calling Cavs 'LeBron + bunch of guys'. Today those are just bunch of guys. They are no better than any NBA team now and they are still favourites? No way, not at this moment. Why not 10/10? Well, they are facing 76ers, not Maverics. I will never trust 76ers that much .

Lakers - Cats Over 207

Rested Lakers, who dind't play for 3 days and are welcoming back both Lamar Odom and Kwame Brown are hosting Charlotte Bobcats, who also have full squad (besides Brezec) available. Over is written all over here. In Charlotte, when those two met, Cats ahve won 133-124, totalling 257 points. Yeah, a lot were in three OTs, but regular time score was 105-105 nevertheless. Lakers are playing without much attention to defence and out of 11 January clashes, only two teams failed to score more than 100 points to Lakers (98 and 96). At the same time, Jackson's boys were held to 100 or less points only by Dallas (95) and Rockets (77). 207 points line is 2-3 points too low the way I see it. Charlotte lacks good dfenders and Kobe blossoms against Cats. Bobcats have problems scoring and that is my main concern regarding this bet. Still, with many open shots, Carroll, Wallace and Moustache Man should drop some baskets, turning this game into over. 112-102 would be my predicted scoreline.

Jazz (-3.5) - Nuggets

I like Jazz here, mostly due to their advantage in depth. Jazz are coming off a lose with Memphis at home, which shouldn't happen. I mean - you can't win battle on boards 56-35 and lose game. Somehow Jazz did this, allowing Grizzlies to score 16/26 outside the arc. To make matters worse, Jazz missed 12 free throws in OT. So how good can Jazz matchup Nuggets? So far they were great at home (17-2-1 ATS) and today should be no different. Melo will have to cope with AK47, which is always hard for any player. Boozer is in great form and he will be guarded by Camby, meaning a lot of open shots for Okur from the deep, as neither Nene nor Evans are good defenders. Also, Denver's 5 wins in a row are a bit misleading as three of those wins came against poor teams.
In my opinion, this handicap is heavily influenced by AI+Melo (who are overestimade) and Jazz's loss to Grizzlies. Perfect opporunity for bounce-back win.

Knicks - Heat (-4)

More than obvious choice. However, I'd prefer not to see Shaq today and get higher handicap. I mean - in regular season, Shaq is one goddamn crankybear . He plays bad and only takes space on the field. Still - Heat won just four days ago 101-83 being without Wade and Shaq, getting franchise record 27-0 run in the progress. Knicks might get Marbury back today, but Curry is doubtful. Without him, Knicks lose a lot of scoring options in the paint. Main problem for Knicks will be holding back Wade (Crawford is bad defender) and psychological problems. High stakes for guests.

David Lee - Udonis Haslem

David Lee (Knicks) versus Udonis Haslem (Heat) - most points and rebounds
A very, very good bet due to following factors: * Stats are quite equal - Haslem 11.6 PPG + 8.9 RPG (20.5 total) during 33.6 MPG.
Lee 11.0 PPG + 10.7 RPG (21.7 total) during 30.5 MPG
* with Shaq on, Haslem's minutes should be limited as big men rotation includes him, Zo, Shaq, Doleac and Walker.
* without Curry, Lee should see extended minutes, as Thomas doesnt see James and Cato in his rotation, preferring to use power forwards - Lee, Frye and Rose.
* David Lee is at home
* Stats are bit misleading, as Lee wasnt playing a lot in November, he had 23.7 rebs+pts in January.
Max stake bet if you only have an account at The Greek. Lee is not a guy who easily falls into foul troubles, so we shouldn't be afraid of this.

Magic - Hawks @4.90

Hawks are very unpredictable and I would not forgive myself if they'd win today. It's not easy to justify a pick of 5-17 road ATS team against 16-5-1 home, but let me try... Atlanta has more options among forwards. They will lose boards, no doubt, as there is noone to match up against Howard, but Magic has serious problems with defence recently and they have quite shallow bench. Without Ariza they miss spark among SG/SF having only Hill and Hedo there. Here is where I see Magic vulnerability. If Joe Johnson has good night and Marv Williams with Josh Smith and Childress can play well in rotation, Hawks are totally capable of grabbing something at Florida.

[Silvio]

Originally Posted by Amanthino

hmm odds on Wiz dropping quite a lot everywhere ... normal procedure or ... ?

Not sure what do You mean. It was -6.0 24 hours ago (see first post), it's -5.0 now. One point is not much in basketball. It is much in soccer however

[Satyr]

Originally Posted by Amanthino

hmm odds on Wiz dropping quite a lot everywhere ... normal procedure or ... ?

what do you mean? Pinnacle recorded no serious movement, current odds 1.46 Pistons (-5).

[The Thinker]

San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis Grizzliess
pick: under 211.5
odds: 1.91
bookie: Gamebookers

I must have missed something very important or this line is set just too high for this occasion. Spurs, waiting for play-offs to come, play game after game after game without much passion. Grizzlies try a bit harder, but it doesn't help them get away from last place in whole NBA momentarily. So it's just an ordinary game, main question is how high will Spurs' win be, or maybe Grizzlies can surprise like they did yesterday and make some people regret they didn't take them? Probably this first option will pass. But chasing (-12.5) with Spurs is just not worth it, too experienced to push so hard if possible but not neccessary. Both teams are almost complete, and it's b2b game for both, but with Spurs staying home and Grizzlies coming from home, which is another burdain for the guests. Now some stats and facts. Spurs didn't cross total of 211 in last 15 games, and in last 9 they stayed under 200. The one that didn't make it 10 was against Grizzlies, when Spurs won 110-96, which makes a 206 total. But it was in Memphis. They played once this season in Texas, Spurs won 105-98, 203 total. Memphis indeed got some offensive boost after Gasol return, but lately they lose steam, scoring less, just conceeding a lot. And when they scored a lot, it was against loose defences, one of which Spurs' definitely isn't. It is not neccessary to repeat their performance against Bulls. Stats also say that this season Grizzlies score 13ppg less away than home. Also in last years they usually scored around 80 in San Antonio. All this makes me expect stronger and more experienced Spurs to control the game, limiting Grizzlies to their away average at most, and concluding the game in routine manner, under 211.5.


Glad to see Croatian friends rule the NBA thread , is it because the climate here is good for NBA punting or we just have too much time on our hands?

Greetings for Satyr and Silvio, and of course everybody else here, I wish everyone a successful night !

[dman]

post deleted. Welcome aboard, but please read other people's posts and forum rules to get the idea how we do it here. Picks solely based on 3 words don't do the trick/Satyr.