Belgium Jupiler League 3-5 Nov

wolek · 03-11-06, 13:40

1X2 03 lis 06 20:30 CET
Genk v GBA
1.45 3.75 6.50
04 lis 06 20:00 CET
AA Gent v Roeselare
1.60 3.50 5.00
Cercle Brugge v Beveren
1.85 3.25 3.75
FC Brussels v Excelsior Moeskroen
1.95 3.25 3.40
Lierse v Mons
2.60 3.25 2.40
05 lis 06 18:00 CET
Charleroi v Westerlo
1.90 3.25 3.50
05 lis 06 20:30 CET
SC Lokeren v Club Brugge
4.00 3.30 1.80
Standard Liège v Anderlecht
2.45 3.25 2.55
Zulte-Waregem v Sint Truiden
1.85 3.25 3.75

Costanza · 03-11-06, 14:15

my pick for tonights match:

Racing Genk - Germinal Beerschot --> Under 2,5 Goals

Racing Genk is still the leader in the league with 3 points ahead of Anderlecht. They had a rather close win against Sint-Truiden last week in a match with many chanses that ended with a 1 - 2 score. Genk played quite good, but I didn't think they were that impressive as in some matches earlyer this season. At the moment they are the best scoring team in the league with 26 goals scored in 10 matches. Their defense is also quite solid with only 9 goals conceded. The average amount of goals in their home games is an impressive 3,4.

Geminal Beerschot is by far the most defensive team in the league and they are defending quite good with also only 9 goals conceded. On the offense they have quite some options but is just hasn't been going like it should. They scored 12 times in 10 mathes so far with 6 of those goals scored in 1 match against moeskroen. In their away games they conceded 5 goals only managed to score 2 times in 5 matches. They allready visited Anderlecht and Brugge and in both of those matches they played with a defensive mind ending up losing the match with 1 - 0. At the moment they are in a good 7th place. Last weeks match showed once again how difficult they score. In a home game they were leading with 1 - 0 against charleroi that played with 8 players, they were not able to score a 2nd goal and conceded one instead on a free kick.

Previous confrontations
11-03-2006 Racing Genk-G. Beerschot 1-0
26-09-2004 Racing Genk-G. Beerschot 2-1
31-01-2004 Racing Genk-G. Beerschot 1-1
11-09-2002 Racing Genk-G. Beerschot 5-2
09-02-2002 Racing Genk-G. Beerschot 4-4
12-05-2001 Racing Genk-G. Beerschot 2-0

Final Toughts
Even though Genk is a team that scores a lot, I just don't see that many goals in this match against GBA and their defensive minded coach. This is a match between the 2 best defenses of the league. Genk hasn't really impressed me last week and GBA just doen't score easy. GBA allready played 2 top matches with 5 players in the defense ending the match with a 1 - 0 score, I think the chances are big this will once again be the case.

so 2/10 on Under 2,5 Goals @ 2.05 (expekt)

Costanza · 03-11-06, 14:18

AA Gent - Roeselare [Azian Handicap]

AA Gent seems to be totally back after their poor season start with a 10 on 12 (that should have been a 12/12) in their 4 last matches. Dispite not being able to win against brussels last week, they actually played very good creating a lot of chances that were all saved by brussles goalkeeper cordier. They have climbed up to the 8th place and are on their way to make the gap to the top smaller because some teams above them are playing against each other this weekend. Losing this match also means that roeselare will jump over them in the standings, So Gent got enough reasons to be motivated to win this match. Another factor of motivation is last weeks match that they just didn't deserve to lose and they defenatly gonna want to take revenge for last years defeat. The Fans also feel very confident that they'll win this match.

Roeselare isn't the same defensive team from last year anymore. I like their coach his vision to always go for it in moments of crisis no matter how big the defeat eventually can be. Oyen and Barbé will probably both be out. Roeselare still has it mainly from their hom games. So far they were only able to take 1 point on 15 in away games.

Final Toughts
It is all aboyt motivation, Gent is playing better each week and they just can't afford to lose points here if they want to get back on track after their poor season start. Playing at home with an overall better team then roeselare they should be able to make it with more then 1 goal difference.

So 4/10 On Gent to win with More then 1 goal difference [1 goal difference No Bet] @ 2.00 Betway

Costanza · 03-11-06, 14:19

Lierse - Bergen [Draw No Bet]

Lierse has allready been trough a nightmare in the Belgian League so far. only being able to take 1 point in the opening match against charleroi. They have a very young team because they wanted to get financially healthy, but their performance has been worse then a team from 2nd division. This week they play at home against the team that came from 2nd division. Thei leader Bob Peeters is still injured and this week their goalkeeper Van der Jeugt got injured too. Last week they played against Anderlecht in a match that they could have lost with 11 - 1 if anderlecht was a bit more carefull with their chances. (2 missed penaltys,...) Everybody is convinced that Lierse is up for regelation unless there are going to be some drastic changes which have not been made yet. One of the Big problems for Lierse is to score goals, they only managed to score a total of 4 goals in 10 matches so far.

Bergen is actually doing quite good in the league knowing they promoted from 2nd division. Their view so far of keeping the team for years together to form a real block has proven to work. Adding Wamberto to the team has allready proven to be a real enforcement in front. The good organised defense is one of the strong points of the team with an average of only 1 goal conceded each match knowing 5 of them were against Genk.

Final Toughts
It will normally be very difficult for Lierse to break down the defense of Bergen with their current attacking line. Bergen isn't really the best offensive team, but if wamberto has one of his days it should not be a problem to score against the 2nd goalkeeper of Lierse.
Still Lierse is playing at home and they really have to take some points soon so I feel much more confident about the Draw No Bet.
The under should also be an option.

So 3/10 On Bergen to win [Draw No Bet] @ 1.96 (10Bet)

Costanza · 03-11-06, 18:07

Standard - Anderlecht -> [Draw No Bet]

Standard made a real comeback after coach Boskamp got fired. With an impressive 15 on 18 in the last 6 matches. It looks quite impressive but it's actually not. They only won against the weak opponents (Lierse, brussels, cercle, roeselare, beveren) and always with not much difference. The match they lost was against the sub-top Gent. The stadion is allready sold out and the home support will normally be very impressive again.

Anderlecht got punished this week against AC Milan. They were able to play very good for 20 minutes and create a lot of open chances mainly because milan let them. To be honest it must be said they just come short on european level once again. The match against Standard is played on sunday night, so there is some time for them to recover and prepare for it. Only 1 important injury in the defense with Pareja. Frutos is going to be fit and akin has proven to in a very good form lately. After losing against Genk in the league at home with 4 - 1 they really do need to set things straigt. With a win they keep their position in front.

Previous Confrontation
14-12-2005 Standard-Anderlecht 2-0
10-11-2004 Standard-Anderlecht 1-0
09-04-2004 Standard-Anderlecht 1-1
24-08-2002 Standard-Anderlecht 0-2
27-10-2001 Standard-Anderlecht 1-0
12-11-2000 Standard-Anderlecht 1-1
05-12-1999 Standard-Anderlecht 0-0
02-05-1999 Standard-Anderlecht 0-6
12-09-1997 Standard-Anderlecht 1-2
26-10-1996 Standard-Anderlecht 0-1
29-10-1995 Standard-Anderlecht 2-4

Final Toughts
Standard has not proven what they are capable of against one of the top teams. Their comeback has so far been mainly because of the weakness of their opponents. I'm also not 100% convinced on the performances from Anderlecht, but I feel they should be slight favorite to win this match. Draw No Bet seems the best value bet for me.

So 2/10 on Anderlecht to win [Draw No Bet] @ 2.05 (10Bet)

tennispicks · 04-11-06, 09:03

anyone has info on Zulte-Waregem v Sint Truiden ?

I am thinking of taking a home win since the probability is quite high for them. However, I need info on this 2 teams. can anyone from belgium input some info here? thanks a lot. well appreciated.

steamhammer · 04-11-06, 11:38

Injuries / Suspensions

Costanza · 04-11-06, 13:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by tennispicks

anyone has info on Zulte-Waregem v Sint Truiden ?

I am thinking of taking a home win since the probability is quite high for them. However, I need info on this 2 teams. can anyone from belgium input some info here? thanks a lot. well appreciated.

I'm going to stay away from this one probably, Sint-Truiden is at the moment not in a place they deserve. They played really motivated and actually deserved a point against Genk last week. Zulte-Waregem has once again pulled off a stunt in the UEFA cup, but I'm not sure they'll be able to continue this good performance in the belgian league.

Costanza · 05-11-06, 02:25

Lokeren - Club Brugge

Lokeren is at the moment on a potential turning point after coach Ariël Jacobs was changed by Slavoljub Muslin. Lokeren had a very good period under Muslin last year. Compared to last years team there has too much changed to compare it to that period. With or without a good coach, lokeren has got some serious problems in teir lineup. Goalkeeper Milojevic is injured, Juao Carlos, El Mouataz and Van Hoey are starting 11 defenders that are also missing. On the offense the important wing player Filipovic is suspended. The Attacking line of Lokeren has allready proven not to be capable of much. Their 2 Strikers Masnov and Tambwe have together only scored 1 time in the last 10 matches ! Aristide Bancé leaving the team has defenatly left some big marks. Lokeren has usually a good reputation at home against the bigger teams but I'm not really concerned about this since the team is just not what it used to be. The thing that scares me away a bit is the mental influence a coach change can sometimes have. Lokeren has done it twice before to win a home match against Brugge just after a coach change. Then again the Lokeren fans seem still to have no faith in their team which is most of the time a very good indication.

Club Brugge had a uefa match last Thurseday against Tottenham that was lost with 3 - 1. Bosko Balaban was uncertain for this match, but he'll probably make it. Salou in suspended, Maertens, Klukowki and Chavez are injured. Still this should not be a problem for Brugge that has enough good players to back this up. Losing this match against Lokeren is actually not really an option for an ambitious Brugge that will see Anderlecht and/or Standard lose points tomorrow. With 2 very difficult upcomming matches against Charleroi and Genk they just have to win this one. The Ref for this match is Gumienny which the Brugge fans don't really like.

Previous Confrontations
04-03-2006 Lokeren-Club Brugge 2-0
17-10-2004 Lokeren-Club Brugge 0-2
01-11-2003 Lokeren-Club Brugge 2-0
11-05-2003 Lokeren-Club Brugge 2-5
19-08-2001 Lokeren-Club Brugge 0-1
27-01-2001 Lokeren-Club Brugge 2-2
15-08-1999 Lokeren-Club Brugge 2-5

Final Toughts
Going against a team that just had a coach change is always dangerous to bet on. The same situation has been there before twice and both those matches were won with 2 - 0 by Lokeren. Still under the circomstances I'm going under the idea 3th time is good time for Brugge. Lokeren playing with a handicaped team because of suspentions and injurys and basicly no attacking line should normally not be able to win against Brugge that can't afford to lose points this match.

So 2/10 on Brugge to win @ 1.80 (Betfair)

FC Bruges · 05-11-06, 03:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by Costanza

Lokeren - Brugge

Lokeren is at the moment on a potential turning point after coach Ariël Jacobs was changed by Slavoljub Muslin. Lokeren had a very good period under Muslin last year. Compared to last years team there has too much changed to compare it to that period. With or without a good coach, lokeren has got some serious problems in teir lineup. Goalkeeper Milojevic is injured, Juao Carlos, El Mouataz and Van Hoey are starting 11 defenders that are also missing. On the offense the important wing player Filipovic is suspended. The Attacking line of Lokeren has allready proven not to be capable of much. Their 2 Strikers Masnov and Tambwe have together only scored 1 time in the last 10 matches ! Aristide Bancé leaving the team has defenatly left some big marks. Lokeren has usually a good reputation at home against the bigger teams but I'm not really concerned about this since the team is just not what it used to be. The thing that scares me away a bit is the mental influence a coach change can sometimes have. Lokeren has done it twice before to win a home match against Brugge just after a coach change. Then again the Lokeren fans seem still to have no faith in their team which is most of the time a very good indication.

Club Brugge had a uefa match last Thurseday against Tottenham that was lost with 3 - 1. Bosko Balaban was uncertain for this match, but he'll probably make it. Salou in suspended, Maertens, Klukowki and Chavez are injured. Still this should not be a problem for Brugge that has enough good players to back this up. Losing this match against Lokeren is actually not really an option for an ambitious Brugge that will see Anderlecht and/or Standard lose points tomorrow. With 2 very difficult upcomming matches against Charleroi and Genk they just have to win this one. The Ref for this match is Gumienny which the Brugge fans don't really like.

Previous Confrontations
04-03-2006 Lokeren-Club Brugge 2-0
17-10-2004 Lokeren-Club Brugge 0-2
01-11-2003 Lokeren-Club Brugge 2-0
11-05-2003 Lokeren-Club Brugge 2-5
19-08-2001 Lokeren-Club Brugge 0-1
27-01-2001 Lokeren-Club Brugge 2-2
15-08-1999 Lokeren-Club Brugge 2-5

Final Toughts
Going against a team that just had a coach change is always dangerous to bet on. The same situation has been there before twice and both those matches were won with 2 - 0 by Lokeren. Still under the circomstances I'm going under the idea 3th time is good time for Brugge. Lokeren playing with a handicaped team because of suspentions and injurys and basicly no attacking line should normally not be able to win against Brugge that can't afford to lose points this match.

So 2/10 on Brugge to win @ 1.80 (Betfair)

Good preview mate! I am with you on this one...certainly now Bosko Balaban recovered from his knee injury.

Brugge had a slow start this season. Now they get better and better every week.

Some doubts on this game:

1. Brugge defense:
Who will replace Maertens in defense? Vandelanoitte or Dreesen? Vandelanoitte is rather slow but has a good technique. Dreesen also not that fast but is a big talent, he showed this at Lierse where he was captain. I'd fancy Dreesen cause VDL doesn't look very commited to his job. Lots of rumours about his life off the field. This gives often some problems with the coaching staff. But at Tottenham he was given some minutes so now I'm not sure who will start tomorrow.

2. Brugge attack:
Who will start upfront? three players for two spots.
Yulu Matondo: great game against Mouscron with two goals. Big talent and really fast
Ishiaku: great mentality but that's where it ends. He scores not easily and he lacks some technique
Balaban: you like him or you don't like him. But when he has his day he's definitely our best striker who can score very easily.

3. Lokeren Coach change:
Lokeren just fired their coach. This mostly gives a shock effect. But when you don't have the quality in your team, it won't help. Maznov, Tambwe, it's just not enough. Can't see who will score for them. Also with the missing of Joao Carlos they will be vulnerable in defense. I saw a little interview with Rudy Cossey (Lokeren interim coach) and he said the moral is very low in the team. He hopes he can take them up for the game against Brugge.

Taking all this in account I will go for:

Lokeren-Brugge 2 @ 1.80 4/10
Lokeren-Brugge Under 2.50 @ 1.90 5/10

Costanza · 06-11-06, 00:55

Quite a lot of surprises and draws this week in the league and I'm afterall happy with this weeks break even situation.

Lokeren - Club Brugge .................................. 2/10 @ 1.80 LOST - 2.00
Standard - Anderlecht DNB ........................... 2/10 @ 2.05 NO BET + 0.00
Lierse - Bergen DNB..................................... 3/10 @ 1.96 NO BET + 0.00
AA Gent - Roedelare AHC ............................. 4/10 @ 2.00 WON + 4.00
Racing Genk - GBA Over 2,5 Goals............... 2/10 @ 1.86 LOST - 2.00

Jupiler League Betting Record Week 11: 2 - 2, + 0.00 Units (ROI: 100%)
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 10: 3 - 0, + 10.13 Units (ROI: 192%)
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 09: 2 - 1, - 1.50 Units (ROI: 83%)
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 08: 5 - 0, + 9.70 Units (ROI: 165%)
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 07: 2 - 2, - 1.80 Units (ROI: 85%)
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 06: 3 - 2, + 4.72 Units (ROI: 136%)
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 05: 3 - 4, - 3,74 Units (ROI: 82%)
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 04: 3 - 1, + 5,38 Units (ROI: 132%)
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 03: 2 - 3, - 3,00 Units (ROI: 78%)
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 02: 2 - 4, - 14,45 Units (ROI: 37%)
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 01: 4 - 1, + 8,40 Units (ROI: 137%)

next week looks very promessing, hopefully the odds will be worth something.