MLB 25.08

[[fin]juuso]

Tampa Bay Devil Rays @ Baltimore Orioles

Orioles -1.5 @ 2.25 (Mansion) 6 units


TB: RHP Jason Hammel (0-1, 10.80)

BAL: RHP Daniel Cabrera (6-8, 4.94)


Daniel Cabrera has excellent stuff but has had control issues this season, walking way too many batters. After a short stint at the Triple-A, he seem to have solved some of the problems. He has went 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA in 3 games since, tossing a complete 9-inning shutout performance against Toronto at home last time out, walking 2 and striking out 10. The main reason i'm making this bet is Tampa's starter. Jason Hammel has pitched in 2 games during his MLB career, both in April this year, First being a 3.1 inning, 7-run performance at home against Orioles. He has very mediocre numbers in the Triple-A Durham as well; 5-9 record and a 4.23 ERA. Both bullpens can be shaky, but Orioles have slightly better one and it's likely O's will get to Hammel and Cabrera is likely to outperform him. O's are solid at home against right handed pitching with a .285 BA and a .347 OBP. Last 2 games against Minnesota Baltimores batting was pretty silent, Still they had some very solid high scoring performances recently against Yankees and Toronto and have scored 43 combined runs over last 6 games (7.12 RPG). Hammel should be a good opponent to get the bats going.



Detroit Tigers @Cleveland Indians

Indians 2.1 (Mansion) 6 units


DET: RHP Jeremy Bonderman (11-5, 3.86 ERA)

CLE: LHP Jeremy Sowers (5-3, 3.48 ERA)


I can see why many people might like Detroit in this one, things like Cleveland is out of the play-off contention, Detroit has much better bullpen, they have the best record in the league and leads the division + Bonderman has a nice 2.97 road ERA. All very valid reasons. Still, Cleveland has the home advantage and rate a slight batting lineup edge. Cleveland is in better offensive form just slaughtering Kansas and having scored 39 combined runs over last 6 games (6.5 RPG) and most importantly Jeremy Sowers is starting for them. Rookie Sowers may be still inexperienced, but he has been consistently excellent lately. He is 4-0 with a miniscule 1.47 ERA over his last 6 starts. 7 ER allowed in last 43 innings pitched and 3 of his last 4 home starts have been shutouts, 2 of them complete games. Bonderman on the other hand has been mediocre lately. He is 0-1 with a 4.68 ERA in last 5 games with 4 no-decisions and has been hittable. Last time out he gave up 5 runs on 11 hits in 4.1 innings pitched at home against the Rangers. Bonderman hasn't fared that well against Cleveland this season Either. He is 2-1 in 4 games against them, but with a high 6.45 ERA and a WHIP of 1.43. Detroit is 1-4 in last 5 games against LHP and while they have a great overall W-L record against them, they bat a little bit worse against Leftys. Cleveland should be favored as they have the overall edge imo. Only area Detroit has a clear advantage is the bullpen, which plays big part only if the game is tight in the late innings, and Sowers is averaging 7 innings a game over last 6 games.

[meser]

Agree with both Juuso's picks, some words of my own about O's:

TB Devil Rays @ Baltimore Orioles,
5 units on O's RL, 2.25 @ Pinnacle
A game between two teams that are out of playoff contention, but good for betting nonetheless. Pitcher's matchup certainly favours the O's. Big righthander Daniel Cabrera was the wildest pitcher of the majors in the first half of 2006, but he is ceratinly on the good path now. He's coming after a complete game shutout of the Blue Jays; in three August starts, he posts a 3.60 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and fanned 20 batters in his 20 innings of work. On the other hand, we have a rookie - Jason hammel - who fills in for injured Jae Seo. He made just two starts this year, and in one of them the O's hurt him for eight runs (seven earned) in 3.1 innings. Both teams are hitting good lately, but the D'Rays are in the beginning of a road trip now - they average just .247 on the road this season (compared to the .285 home average of the O's). I have doubts on how long Hammel can stay in the game and we all know that the D'Rays pen is not the sharpest; neither is Baltimore's, but hopefully they won't need to step in too early (also, "troublemakers" Chen and Russ Ortiz relieved yesterday night).

Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates,
6 units on Astros pk after 5 inn, 1.65 @ Pinnacle
Backing "The Rocket" Roger Clemens (5-4, 2.58 ERA), whose performances since resigning have been just as expected. Unfortunately, the Astros are not having a great season; their 3-7 record and just .218 batting average in the last 10 games says it all. Clemens allowed more than two runs in just 2 of his 12 starts and comes after a brilliant one run, seven inning outing in Milwaukee. The Pirates are winners of three in a row and are usually good home performers: 33-30 and batting a solid .286 - however they will start a pitcher who has really struggled so far. Victor Santos (5-8, 5.65 ERA) switched between rotation and bullpen, but that didn't seem to help to much. In three August appearances, Santos has a 8.10 ERA, a 2.06 WHIP and he allowed four homeruns in 13.1 innings of work. On Aug. 9, the Astros tagged Santos for 5 runs in 3.1 innings. Hopefully, the Astros will try some more to produce something for their legendary teammate.

Good luck !

[Satyr]

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MLB 2006: 69 W 64 L +24.75 units
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Red Sox (Schilling) (1.61 @ Pinnacle) 6 units

Riding the streak here. I've been lurking from the corner and waiting the best time to start pounding the Red Sox, they do have formidable lineup problems, but they're still a top team and I believe the AL East title race isn't over yet (currently 5.5 games behind NYY).
Boston are winners of two straight and are travelling to Safeco Field to clash with the Mariners, my favourite team. Sadly, their recent streak has kicked them out of playoff contention, since their only chance was to take the AL West divisional title. Mariners are currently rock bottom of the division with 14 games behind Oakland.
Big Papi launched his league-leading 46th homer last night, Timlin and Papelbon connected to save the win (Papelbon's 34th save of the season).

Red Sox are going to rely on their ace "Bloody Sock" to take the W at Safeco. Curt Schilling (14-5, 3.84 ERA) has been a season-long consistency in Red Sox rotation, but is winless in last 3 starts. He is 1-0, 1.13 ERA against Seattle this season.

Mariners are just clueless at the moment, their bats, which have been their forte throughout the season, are completely cold for a while now, and I don't think southpaw Jake Woods (3-1, 3.88 ERA) will provide a necessary spark for them tonight. Woods was very impressive in his start against the Angels on Aug. 20, holding the Halos to one run on 5 hits in over 5 innings of work. In 74 pitches he threw, 52 were strikes, which would be very hard to repeat tonight against one of the most potent lineups in baseball lead by Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, who is expected to miss tonight's game due tendinitis. Manny had to undergo an MRI scan which showed there is no serious damage to the knee. There were some black thoughts about Manny's injury but Red Sox fans can exhale now, Manny will be back to rotation in no time.

Furthermore, there is a known factor of a team stepping up to fill in the shoes of their missing player, and that's exactly what some of those guys have been doing as Red Sox took 2 out of 3 against the Angels.
Big Papi's irregular heartbeat problems were nothing but a scare too, he is 100% fit and ready. With Jason Varitek being a week from return, and Boston finally playing some good defense, I think there's not much chance for Seattle to win tonight, not against Schilling on the mound at least.
6 units.


Chicago White Sox - Minnesota (over 9.5) (2.01 @ Pinnacle) 4 units

Not sure with these total plays any more, I'm in a bad run when it comes to totals lately, hence the lower stake than I wanted to put initially. However, this one should go over the projected margin, since both teams are in wake up mode when it comes to hitting. Actually, both teams look good overall at the moment, especially the Pale Hose, which are coming off a perfect game last night, beating the Tigers 10-0 behind Jon Garland. Tonight they'll send out Javier Vasquez (11-8, 5.13 ERA) who is 0-3, 7.71 ERA against the Twinkies this season, and 1-4, 6.87 ERA in his career.

He has usually inspired his team's bats to produce runs this season, tonight should be the case as well, especially since Vasquez will be looking for his first win over the Twins this season (and Radke) after losing twice (both times the game went OVER THE MARGIN(9.5) (Minnesota winning both encounters, 8-4 and 7-4 respectively).
Brad Radke (12-9, 4.35 ERA) is 2-2, 5.40 ERA against CWS this season, and 16-15, 4.66 ERA in his career. Minnesota pounded Baltimore 11-2 in their last game, which means their offense is starting to click again.
Justin Morneau is 7-for-17 when facing Vazquez, with four home runs, two doubles and seven RBIs. The over is 10-3 in the series this season.
4 units.


Athletics (Zito) (1.87 @ Pinnacle) 5 units

Backing the A's with their top man here. Barry Zito (13-8, 3.76 ERA) gets the nod for Oakland, and this price is rather tempting, knowing that Zito has a 9-2 record and 3.03 ERA in 14 road starts and 10-1 with a 4.00 ERA in 14 starts in Texas, despite having a 6.75 ERA against the Rangers this season and 16-4 with a 3.65 ERA in 28 starts against Texas in his career.
Against the Angels and Mariners, the Athletics boast an impressive 21-7 record; against the Rangers, however, Oakland is just 6-7. I see that evening out tonight. Over the seasons, Rangers at Ameriquest are never an easy task, but they're only 31-31 at their Arlington this season.
Also they're sending out Edinson Volquez (1-2, 4.02 ERA), who was questionable a few days earlier due to an injured thumb. Left-handed batters are hitting just .167 against Volquez this season. Swisher was 2-for-4, including a homer, against Volquez on Aug. 9. The first baseman leads the Athletics with a .346 (18-for-52) average against the Rangers this season.
The A's have won 21 of their last 27 games.
5 units.

[murgatroyd]

KC (L Hudson) @ TOR (S Marcum)
TOR -1.5 (RL) 2.3 @ Betfair

reasons:
1- KC are 7-22 in their last 29 games on Field Turf.
2- KC are 24-72 in their last 96 road games.
3- KC are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings in Toronto.

They played 4 games in 2006
7/9/06 KC 3 - TOR 11
7/8/06 KC 5 - TOR 7
7/7/06 KC 13 - TOR 3
7/6/06 KC 6 - TOR 2


OK its a risky pick. I have never watched Hudson and Marcum this year.
Kansas ofense is good for last 2-3 weeks but Toronto having problems in ofense. If Toronto hits good tonight i think it ll be also a over game.
over 10.5 Runs 2.04 @ betfair

PS for Satyr and Brent. I didnt have time to thank you both for Dogers game s analyse (Penny) 2 nights ago. Thanks...

Good Luck

[murgatroyd]

Hi Satyr

Not about tonights game but i have a question. Yesterday when i was bazaar (in Istanbul) i found a second hand collectible toy of a man called Randy Jones. (picher no 35 SD Padres). Kind of a funny toy produced in 2003. But when i searched in net i couldnt find a man called Randy Jones in MLB or Padres history. I found a Randy Jones in NHL
Do you know him?

thanks...

[Satyr]

Yep actually Randy Jones played for the San Diego Padres in the 1970s.

I had too google it up as well since I was born in the 80s, but here it is:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randy_J...ball_player%29

In 1974 Jones posted a record of 8-22 with a 4.45 ERA. He was able to turn it around in 1975 when he won 20 games and led the National League with a 2.24 ERA earning The Sporting News NL Comeback Player of the Year honors. His best season was in 1976 when he went 22-14 with a 2.74 ERA winning the National League Cy Young Award and being named The Sporting News NL Pitcher of the Year. Randy was selected as the Lefthanded Pitcher on The Sporting News NL All-Star Teams after the 1975 & 1976 seasons.

Jones established the Major League season record for most chances accepted by a pitcher without an error (112 in 1976), tied ML pitchers records for highest season fielding percentage (1.000, 1976) and most assists in an inning (3, 9/28/75 - 3rd inning), and tied the NL pitchers season record for the most double plays with 12 in 1976.

I guess you're talking about a Randy Jones bobblehead, which would be this:




Cheers.

[murgatroyd]

Originally Posted by Satyr

Yep actually Randy Jones played for the San Diego Padres in the 1970s.

I had too google it up as well since I was born in the 80s, but here it is:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randy_J...ball_player%29

In 1974 Jones posted a record of 8-22 with a 4.45 ERA. He was able to turn it around in 1975 when he won 20 games and led the National League with a 2.24 ERA earning The Sporting News NL Comeback Player of the Year honors. His best season was in 1976 when he went 22-14 with a 2.74 ERA winning the National League Cy Young Award and being named The Sporting News NL Pitcher of the Year. Randy was selected as the Lefthanded Pitcher on The Sporting News NL All-Star Teams after the 1975 & 1976 seasons.

Jones established the Major League season record for most chances accepted by a pitcher without an error (112 in 1976), tied ML pitchers records for highest season fielding percentage (1.000, 1976) and most assists in an inning (3, 9/28/75 - 3rd inning), and tied the NL pitchers season record for the most double plays with 12 in 1976.

I guess you're talking about a Randy Jones bobblehead, which would be this:




Cheers.

You are great Satyr
Thats the toy i got. Same one. His head is jumping. I think it belonged some american family lived in Istanbul but didnt find valueble to take it back. Its on my desk now

thank you my friend

[Satyr]

may it bring you luck my friend, GL.