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Old 20-04-17, 17:18   #1
Underdogchance
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Default My MLB Projected Lines, Analysis and Picks 2017

Hi,

I will share my baseball info, information, views, previews, analysis and projected lines here with you.
I will try to give at least one good analysis here, but you can also watch my videos with my comments about all games.

It's about sharing good info, so you can make your own bets. Baseball betting requires extreme discipline. Most of my bets are around 1% so far. I am not asking anyone to tail me but am just sharing my advice. I have no interest in hearing someone whine if they follow me and lose. I owe you nothing and I do this for fun. When it isnít fun anymore, I will stop posting. There are better handicappers out there than me and before you want to send me negative response or hate private message, think twice if you need this. Time is valuable, spend your 5 minutes for something else, than sending me negative messages after every loss. If you think that I am bad, simply pass away or start your own topic and show us your thoughts on baseball betting.

Projected Lines - 20.4.2017 (Video)


I will try to write one random analysis every day, so you can take those information and make your own pick. Writing analysis takes some time and the odds can drop. In dynamic betting world, which is faster and faster it is very important to be quick and writing analysis will be dead in the future. But I believe, that you can take some info from my numbers and you can make your own bets. I also believe, that many of you are much better and much talented than me. But I will do my best and hopefully I will share some good info.

I wish you all the best in MLB 2017

NY METS (Syndergaard) vs PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Nola)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Bookmakers have Philadelphia as big underdog here and there is a reason for that, because NY Mets will play with Noah Syndergaard, who is one of the best pitchers in the game right now. We can find Philadelphia at around 2.70 and based on my numbers, they are little bit underrated. I have projected, that Philadelphia should be underdog of around 2.16. In other words, if I play play on Philadelphia, I would expect, that bookmakers will pay me 1.16 units of profit if Philadelphia wins. They pay me more (+0.54 units more) and because of that I have some value with them. Letís see if there is a reason for that.

Match Up
NY Mets will start with Noah Syndergaard, ERA 0.95 to the season, 20 strike outs in 19 innings and only 2 earned runs so far. Amazing numbers. He also has very good numbers against Philadelphia hitters as they combine batting average of only 0.185 against him.

Philadelphia on the other side will start with Aaron Nola, who has been very good too. ERA 3.27, 13 strike outs in 11 innings and only 2 walks. He pitched against Washington, who is playing really good right now and he had pretty tough schedule, but he still pitched well and I think if he can continue with the same pitching we can see another very close game.

When we talk about bullpens, Philadelphia is higher ranked bullpen so far this season, but right now but bullpens were shaky so far. Philadelphia ERA 5.18, NY Mets ERA 3.81, but bad whip of 1.571.

Philadelphia scores 4.7 runs per game so far and they score 5.2 runs per game on the road. NY Mets on the other side score 4.5 runs per game and 4.6 runs per game against right handed pitchers. And based on current numbers, Philadelphia is better offensive team so far in 2017. Better batting average and I rank them little bit higher so far in 2017, especially against right handed pitchers.

Reason for pick
So, what we have here? We have very good pitcher with Mets and the odds are set mostly because he is dominant and he also has very good numbers against Philadelphia. But on the other side we also have very good pitcher. Nola's 13 strike outs in just 11 innings against Washington is not bad. Even his skilled interactive ERA is pretty same than Syndergaard number. But the game is not only starting pitching and most bettors underestimate bullpens and hitters. And in this part of the game I donít see any huge advantage by the Mets. In fact based on my numbers, Philadelphia is little bit better offensive team right now. We can expect, that Syndergaard will go around 6 innings and Familia could be back for the Mets, but if Nola can pitch like he did in first two games, I think the game could be decided in last 2-3 innings and I think both teams can win. I still have projected, that Mets have 53.7% of chance in this game, but this is still much less, what bookmakers think. Because of that I think we have a value with Philadelphia and i think that they can win this at the end. Note also, that majority of bettors will be on NY Mets too. If you like to play small on underdogs and if you like to go against the public, then Philadelphia is my recommendation.

Play Philadelphia (small)


Other recommended underdogs: SD, MILWAUKEE, CIN
Some recommended favs: HOU, BOS
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Old 21-04-17, 14:21   #2
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Projected Lines and analysis - Friday, April 21 (Video)

Colorado (Chatwood) vs San Francisco (Cueto)

San Francisco Giants will play against Colorado Rockies and both teams will send out good pitchers on the mound and the total of 10.5 seems little bit too high. I have projected the total of around 7 runs.

Johnny Cueto is one of the best pitchers in the game and he started this season well. 18 strike outs in 19 innings and ERA of 3.79. Donít be fooled with ERA, because ERA doesnít show everything. But his whip is 1.211 and he is 8-2 against Colorado. In 13 starts against Colorado he posted ERA of 2.25 and he also played against them this season. He allowed only 2 runs in 7 innings.

On the other side we have Chatwood, who is on ERA 3.54, whip of 1.033 and struck out 16 batters in 20 innings this season. He is 6-3 against San Francisco with ERA of 2.54. He also pitched against them this season and guess what - he didnít allow any run in 9 innings. He allowed only 2 hits in 9 innings.

Both teams are struggling against right handed pitchers at the start of the season. San Francisco scores 3.4 runs per game against RHP and Colorado 3.4 runs per game vs RHP too.

And when we talk about bullpensÖ Colorado didnít have good bullpen until this season and a lot of bettors will fall into a trap if they will continue to play overs on Colorado like in last years. Their bullpen ERA is 2.62 and is among the best in the league. San Francisco has traditionally good pitching stuff and I even rank their bullpen lower than Colorado. But still their ERA is 3.35.

There is no logical reason to play over 10.5 in this game. Of course anything can happen. Pitcher can have bad day, hitters can have good day, but if we stick with the facts, the total of 10.5 is simply too much!


Play Under 10.5 @1.83 at William Hill
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Old 22-04-17, 20:11   #3
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Saturday - 22/4/2017

Milwaukee vs St Louis


My Projected Lines and the odds
Milwaukee lost yesterday and they are very nice surprise this season so far. I know, that they can not keep this too long but right now, they are money. 9-9 to the season and if you bet on them blindly so far, you would make around +3 units of profit. Bookmakers set them as underdog again, but odds dropped from +110 (2.10) to -105 (1.95), but I still think we have a value with them. I have projected that St Louis should be much bigger underdog (+190) and with Milwaukee we have nice value right now.

Match Up
Milwaukee will start with Anderson, who pitched 3 games so far and he has amazing start to the season. ERA 1.50, 16 strikeouts in 18 innings and whip of 1.000.

St Louis will go with Lynn, who also pitched three games this season and in his only road game 4 ER in 5 innings with 4/4 K/BB. Yes, he has some good numbers against Milwaukee (7-2, ERA 2.42), but I think we have at least even match up here, because on the other side we have red hot Anderson.

Bullpen is on Milwaukee***8217;s side so far this season. Their ERA is 3.32 compared to St Louis ERA 5.96. And when we talk about ERA at home and away so far this season***8230; Milwaukee ERA at home is 2.90, while St Louis ERA on the road is 6.75.

Milwaukee scores 4.8 runs and they have couple of red hot hitters right now. Thames is leading home run hitter in whole MLB. He has 8 home runs so far. St Louis hitters are still little bit cold and right now is the chance to take advantage with Milwaukee. St Louis scores 3.5 runs per game.

Reason for pick
Milwaukee is one of the hottest teams right now. I know, they can not keep this run too long, but right now is the time to play them, because they are underrated. In this game, there is no pitching advantage. Lynn has good numbers against Milwaukee, but he will face red hot Anderson, who has better bullpen behind him too. Milwaukee is currently better scoring team and we have this game at even money.
Play Milwaukee @1.95
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Old 25-04-17, 17:17   #4
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Projected Lines - MLB Tuesday, April 25

White Sox (Covey) vs Kansas (Duffy)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Bookmakers opened White Sox at around +125 (2.25) underdog, but the odds already dropped to around +115 (2.15), despite majority of bettors will probably be on Kansas today and their red hot pitcher Duffy. However, baseball game is not about starting pitcher only, but we must also include other factors. I have projected, that Kansas should be underdog and not White Sox. I give White Sox around 58.9% of chance and I expect, that if I play them, that bookmakers will pay me around +0.70 units for my 1 unit risked. They offer me more. Around 1.20 units for my risked unit and this is around +0.50 more, what i would expect. Because of that, I have some value with White Sox. Letís see, if there is logical reason to play them tonightÖ.

Match Up
White Sox beat Kansas yesterday by 12-1 and right now they are one of the best hitting teams against left handed pitchers this season. They score 6.3 runs per game against left handed pitchers with batting average of 0.304. They scored 8 home runs in 204 at bats.

Kansas on the other side is bad bad team so far this season. They score 2.5 runs per game and against right handed pitchers, they are even worse. 2.4 runs per game with batting average of 0.195.

Kansas will start with their red hot pitcher Danny Duffy. Lefty pitcher who has ERA of 1.32 and is 2-0 to the season, but with such a run production by his team it is only a matter of time, when he will lose. Not only, that he plays in front of very bad offensive team, he also plays with bad bullpen support. Kansas City Royals bullpen is the worst in the league so far. ERA 5.90 and on the road even worse (ERA 7.68). He can go 7 innings, but he will also face couple of White Sox players, that have some good success against him in the past. Fraizer has 2 home runs against him and batting average of 0.286, Abreu has 1 home run and batting average of 0.323 in 31 at bats, Soto has 2 home runs in 6 at bats, Sanchez batting average of 0.429 in 14 at bats,...

White Sox on the other side will start with Dylan Covey, who struggled so far this season and White Sox will not have any starting pitching advantage here. That is for sure. His ERA this season is 7.84. Both road games and he lost both games too. However, there are three things, that I like here. First is that, he didnít face any Kansas hitter yet and when hitters and teams didnít face a pitchers in the past, this is usually advantage for pitchers. Secondly, he has better bullpen, so he will probably get better support than Duffy on the other side. At least it was so, this season. White Sox bullpen is among the best so far this season with ERA of 1.76. And of course, he will play at home. This will be his first home game this season, which could be extra motivation for him after two bad road games.

Reason for pick
White Sox are better team right now and they are especially good against left handed pitchers. They beat lefty yesterday and couple of players from current White Sox lineup have good numbers against Duffy. I believe, he can go around 6 innings if they put some pressure on him. After that, Kansas will not have any advantage, because White Sox are better hitting team and they have better bullpen too. The only concern is White Sox starting pitcher, which is the most important player, but he will also face the worst hitting team right now and this is his chance to put some solid pitching together tonight. With White Sox we have better overall team so far this season, better bullpen, team in better form and in very good situation (vs LHP).
I will take them because of all these reasons and also because there is some value based on my model, which predicts win%.

Play White Sox @ 2.26
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Old 27-04-17, 15:30   #5
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Projected Lines - Thursday April 27

Detroit (Verlander) vs Seattle (Iwakuma)

Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners will play the third game of this series, where we saw a lot of runs (36 runs in two games).

Detroit won the first game and Seattle won yesterday, but we will see a nice pitching duel today. Tigers will start with Justin Verlander, who lost 2 road games, but was excellent in only home game this season. He went 7 innings and allowed only 3 hits, 0 earned runs. He has 22 strike outs in 22 innings and 11 walks. His record versus Seattle is 10-8 with ERA of 3.25 and whip of 1.161. Last year he faced them two times and in both games he did really well. He went 7 innings in each of those games and allowed only 3 runs.

Iwakuma on the other side will start for Seattle. He didnít impress me this season. He has more walks than strike outs (10/9) and he also doesnít have good numbers against current Detroit lineup. They have batting average of 0.317 against him in 97 at bats. In last game in Detroit he went only 4.7 innings and allowed 11 hits and 5 runs.

Both teams are playing some very good offensive baseball right now and Seattle scores 5.5 runs per game against right handed pitchers, while Detroit 6.2. This number is affected because of that game, when they score 19 runs, but still, they good batting average of 0.279 against right handed pitchers, while Seattle 0.254.

Bookmakers have Detroit as a small favourite and you can get them at around 1.80. I have projected, that Detroit will have around 67% of chance and my fair odds on them are 1.50. With 1.80 we get more and because of that there is some value for me.

I like Verlander over Iwakuma. Better pitcher, better offense so far this season and both struggling bullpens, I think we have nice price on Detroit as a small favorite here.

Play Detroit @1.80
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