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Old 17-04-17, 23:17   #1
Lakers
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Default Copa Libertadores 19.04. - 28.04

Three matches for today:
Lanus - Zulia
Chapecoense-SC - Club Nacional
Sporting Cristal - The Strongest

Match between Chapecoense-SC - Club Nacional is "no bet" for me...really tough match to predict, maybe a draw at the end...

Sporting Cristal is always good for goals, so maybe I will try Over 2,5 goals...but I am not sure how will play the visitors (probably will defend), so maybe other members can help us with some informations.

Lanus is big favourites and probably will win. Zulia scored in first two games, their matches from local league are with goals, so here I will go with Over...I think that best option is Lanus win and over 2,5 goals (odd: 1,80). I think that Lanus will score few goals here, maybe 3:1 at the end...

I wait to hear other members for this matches, especially for the Lanus vs Zulia...Thanks
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Old 18-04-17, 07:16   #2
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I'd be extremely careful with Lanus-Zulia. So far all the supposed "easy" games vs Bolivian and Venezuelan teams in Libertadores turned very difficult in reality. Take for instance last week Atletico Mineiro - Sport Boys. In theory it should have been a massacre, in practice Sport Boys deserved to take a draw in Belo Horizonte. So called "grands" show pathetic attitude and form.

I do see goals in Sporting Cristal. Odds are generous. It is a must win for home team, as in theory this should be the easiest game. On the other hand, this is the away game for Strongest, where they have the best chances to grab some points, so I expect them to be more positive.
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Old 18-04-17, 08:10   #3
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Here are my thoughts for the games tonight :

I honestly think that brazilian teams play much better as visitors in this tournament. Im thinking about a combo - Atletico MG , Santos , Gremio and Botafogo all X2. Im worried only about Santa Fe - Santos game , cuz the colombians are pretty solid at home and have the altitude advantage , so i might leave that one out.

Lanus - Zulia

Both teams are in terrible form , especially Lanus. The argentinian team have only 3 wins in 2017 from 11 games. And when i said that Brazilian teams play much better as visitors I think that this goes for the argentinian teams as well. Lanus lost their first game at home to Nacional with 0:1 , but managed to defeat Chapecoense in Brazil with 1:3.

Zulia have the worst defence in Venezuela and are conseding goals almost every game. They have good attacking force thought , so i think that this game might go Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70. I also like Zulia +2 AH.

Chapecoense - Nacional

I honestly don't wanna bet on this game a single penny. Both teams are pretty solid , but given the fact that brazilian teams are shitty at home i will just pass this. My only guess is BTTS - NO.

Sporting Cristal - The Strongest

Tough game once again , but bolivians will miss their captain and goalscorer Pablo Escobar which is a big blow. That probably led to the sugnificent decrease in the odds for Under 2.5 goals from 2.00 to 1.85. I think under is a good option here, but i also think that Sporting will manage to take 3 points as well, so im going for Home win and under 2.5 goals @ 4.50
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Old 18-04-17, 10:23   #4
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These are hard games really lanush doesent deserve that 1.20 is more than ridiculus ....zulia beat nacinal in montevideo and now lanus on 1.20 .....please ....in gaME OF CHAPE like one our famous couch at the time said once ...we can win the game,win can loose the game or it could end draw ....so ....i am not touching this game .....if escobar was present i was to bet on el tigre cause cristal really doesnt impress me .....and this seson bolivians can make somethig more than 7-0,5-1 and so on losses,but with escobar misssing is a big blow ....no bet for now ,but tigre dnb with esco. will be goood,but no bet for now.GL
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Old 18-04-17, 13:24   #5
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Well, I decide to make a final decision and go with two tips for tonight:
Lanus vs Zulia Over 2,5 goals
Sporting Cristal vs The Strongest Under 2,5 goals

Like I said, Lanus will not afford another bad result from their home matches...Zulia and their results sounds great for over...

The second one is very important game for both sides. Thanks Kompany for that information about Escobar...I strongly believe that they will defend and I doubt that they can be so dangerous ahead without him. On the other side it is very important match for Sporting Cristal and probably they will be patient and careful abotu this game. So, under is logic choice here and I also agree with Kompany that Sporting is near to win this match...

Miccho, about "small" clubs...I agree that teams from Bolivia, Venezuela had improved from the past, but for me they are still far away from top teams. That matches like Atletico MG vs Sport Boys I would say that Atletico probably underrated the opponent (I must to say that I did not watched that game). they had an early lead after that probbaly they relaxed too much and they had 1:2...but for 3 minutes they scored 2 goals and decide the winner...in that matches I will always be on the home side (handicaps and over), simply I think that only they underrated their opponents (the same situation on the match River Plate vs Melgar), but still it exist huge gap between them...that is my opinion
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Old 18-04-17, 15:24   #6
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Guys, I think any pre-game bets in this tournament at this stage are PURE GAMBLE. We can discuss some initial ideas, but I would personally never put a penny on these games, without seeing how the match starts.

This concerns both the "over" in Lanus and the "under" in Lima. Basing the under on just the absence of the 40 year old Escobar is a bit too bold, imo. Ofc, the same holds true for my feeling about goals in this game - it can turn out completely fallacious. But I personally do not think Strongest will park the bus against a mediocre team, against which they have all the chances to get points and score goals.

The same holds true for Lanus game. Zulia will definitely be happy with a draw and will park the bus. And if Lanus decide to mug around (very likely), you will have the most obvious "under" in the tournament. Same like in the game Palmeiras - Wilsterman. Away team defends with 11, home team just walks in the pitch in first half and decide to run and put pressure only after 60th minute. I have seen this ****** so often in South America...
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Old 18-04-17, 17:09   #7
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i agree but i am afraid only d be able to make pre ko shoots ...

well sometimes libertadores got frenzy starts so perhaps not so unprofitable ...

i wonder about lanus ... argies and barsilian teams have nothing to do ... argies can ask question and propose strong game & sharp atacck at times .. sure its always eaiser to stop sa type of footie based on one vs one and run with ball instead of ball runing ... but its changing look at river .. or last libertadores rosario central both looked with quite fancee moves ..whilst brasilians keep playing at club level that flat and predicteable game ...

galo was a disgrace vs s boys ... could not play two passes togueter but sport boys are a joke team in many ways ... big profile owner signs big profile coach azcargorta soms sort of hero in bolivia .. some big name players but they are just a a muppet team ... even capdevila looks like a guy who actually ATE capdevila lol ... so last 30 mins fred alone disposed of those jokers ..bolivar whol looks strongest ever academia pace˝a ive ever seen would have kick the hell out of those mineiros ..... other brasilian teams in better form and game ... might just at least be solid and have more than couple of passes togueter but will always be very easy to nullify with tight defending ....


so i am saying this couse i just take lanus not so good numbers l˝ately probably one of those things that hapen to this type of side when they are focus on two competitions ..i see same coach and more less players than one won chsip two semesters ago ...

one thing that wories is zulia result at nacional tough ...anyone watched it ... was it even ..zulia results at home real˝ms talk of leacking defense ...

theyll get high pressure from minute one with locals off line up ...
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Old 18-04-17, 17:16   #8
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So far the only serious team I saw was River Plate. Even after Melgar took the lead, it was obvious that River will dismantle these clowns. Each River attacked smelled like a goal. If they wanted, they could have scored 6-7 easily...

Brazilian teams are a laughing stock. Just some big words chit chatters. They would struggle even against some team from Guyana.
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Old 18-04-17, 17:20   #9
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i think cristal will beat tigre likely in game with goals ....

host are best peuvian side of the moment under ex union chemo del solar ...
some players on host togueter for a while they are very good offensively ..of course for local standars yet bolivian ones are by no means higher ... host full house while guest miss 3 imp players both for atack and defense ... hosr are in sc form and shall prevail here ...
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Old 18-04-17, 22:43   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by litost View Post
i think cristal will beat tigre likely in game with goals ....

host are best peuvian side of the moment under ex union chemo del solar ...
some players on host togueter for a while they are very good offensively ..of course for local standars yet bolivian ones are by no means higher ... host full house while guest miss 3 imp players both for atack and defense ... hosr are in sc form and shall prevail here ...
Agreed

I also like Chapecoense they have been playing good lately.
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Old 19-04-17, 10:27   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by litost View Post
i think cristal will beat tigre likely in game with goals ....

host are best peuvian side of the moment under ex union chemo del solar ...
some players on host togueter for a while they are very good offensively ..of course for local standars yet bolivian ones are by no means higher ... host full house while guest miss 3 imp players both for atack and defense ... hosr are in sc form and shall prevail here ...
i disagree that in this time peruvians are mcuh better than bolivians ...yeah for sure their are poco mas better ,but the gap is going down ....where are historical and famous alianza and universitario ....instead we watch comerciantes unidos melgar and this team with name of juice drink ....on the other side teams from la paz upgrade quality the stongest y la academia are no more pushovers .....only rest santa cruz ti rise and bllom and oriente to get up and bolivia will have pack of quite nice teams ....dont get me wrong ...i am big fan of alianz lima and watch every time when i can peruvian championship and rhe difference with boliv are not so great.about brazilians you are right they always with the sam e football always undeestimating smaller opponents and alwoys so psochologicaly unstable able easy to be provoked and get red cards etc ....just my two cents....and by the way i really doubt that you basques comes from Bulgaria hahahha
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Old 19-04-17, 12:07   #12
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Kinda of expected results last night. The only dissapointment was the 0:0 draw in Peru.

Here are my thoughts for the games tonight

Libertad - Atletico MG

I don't like the dropping odds on Libertad. Yes - it's kinda of a "must win" game for them , but Atletico MG will be happy to collect even 1 point. As i mentioned - brazilians play much better as visitors in my opinion. Atletico have good players and could snatch 1 points in Paraguay.

Libertad is no doubt the best team in Paraguay , but they are coming to this game after 2 straight defeats. I don't think that they should be such favourites in this game. X2 for me.

Estudiantes LP - Atletico Nacional

Tough game to predict. Both teams need the points , because they have 0 after the 2 rounds. Estudiantes rest most of their first team players for this game and with the home advantage i think that they could win.
Still, Atletico are the defending champions and a loss here most likely will throw them out of the competition.
Also , Atletico knows how to win against Estudiantes as they've beat them 2 years ago on the same stadium with 0:1.

I think that Under 2.5 is a good option. Both teams will play carefully and will try to minimize the risk.


Zamora - Iquque - not touching this one. I think Iquque is the better team , but still i can't bet on those 2 **** teams.

Santa Fe - Santos -

Not much to say here. Tough game to predict. Santa Fe are amazing at home and have altitude advantage , so all points to home win. I would choose BTTS - NO , because i doubt that both teams will manage to score.
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Old 19-04-17, 12:47   #13
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Yes, good results yesterday...

For tonight we have three matches (Estudiantes vs Atl.Nacional / Zamora vs Dep.Iquique / Santa Fe vs Santos) which should be tough game. Here on this games I don't expect goals, so "under" is a good option.
Match between Libertad vs Atletico-MG should bring us some goals and I believe in Over or BTTS. Libertad after two bad games, simply must win here if they want to reach the next stage. On the other side Atletico-MG is going very well, they attack is great. I will go with Over 2,5 or maybe even over 3,5 and with BTTS for this game. I expect something like 2:2; 1:3; 2:3...For me this game is very good for goals, but we will see tonight what will happen.
Good luck !
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Old 19-04-17, 12:56   #14
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yeah el expreso rojo can be a good choice ....due to altitude on that brazilians dont cope well ...and their home form ....el campin when play there santa fe or millos is a caldera so i dont how braz.will cope with that also ....santos last match is against cristal and home and next round have santa fe home also so i think they will rely mainly on these matches....but i am expecting odds to rise a bit and if they reach 2.25 or so will take them ...no bet at lesser odds ....just my two cents....for now no bet game for me like the others.

also bet on red card in the game of libertad i will take probably if i find it where cause ussually dont bet such things ....but knowing the style of play of guarani see uruguay,chile and brazilianza easy to provoke to me seems likely to have a red card taking in mind also the importance of game for paraguayans and i am sure the provocations will be part of their repertoir against technicli superior brazilians.

Last edited by U.C.S.; 19-04-17 at 13:01.
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Old 19-04-17, 16:43   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by U.C.S. View Post
i disagree that in this time peruvians are mcuh better than bolivians ...yeah for sure their are poco mas better ,but the gap is going down ....where are historical and famous alianza and universitario ....instead we watch comerciantes unidos melgar and this team with name of juice drink ....on the other side teams from la paz upgrade quality the stongest y la academia are no more pushovers .....only rest santa cruz ti rise and bllom and oriente to get up and bolivia will have pack of quite nice teams ....dont get me wrong ...i am big fan of alianz lima and watch every time when i can peruvian championship and rhe difference with boliv are not so great.about brazilians you are right they always with the sam e football always undeestimating smaller opponents and alwoys so psochologicaly unstable able easy to be provoked and get red cards etc ....just my two cents....and by the way i really doubt that you basques comes from Bulgaria hahahha
hail hail to that

i know bolivian footie is on raise ... bols love their footie and some big goes to club from time to time ..but most cases is just mambo jambo with investors d pulling out end up not paying playesr and stuff ..

but bolivar and strongers are more stablished ... ive watched both lately an dspecially bolivar looks like one that can really hit some headlines at southamerican comp if they keep the level ...strongest got big results lately but i am not sure they are so sound ... they defend well .... i tought it would work well at local chship but fail away in libertadore sbut its working .. i did not see crsital game but i am bit surprised peruvians did not score ...
screwed the night couse i was on lanus on soem big handicaps that went thru ... but also on crsital -.25 & over 2.25 :/ ... and corners on both .. both corners bets failed by one ..darn corners markets for dummies like me ....
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Old 19-04-17, 17:38   #16
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Bolivar went on to play 1/2 finals in Libertadores few years ago... And Lito is completely right that these Mountaineers are really in love with football, despite that they cannot kick the ball properly.

Anyway, congrats on perfect intuiotion on Lanus. Obviously Brazilian muppets scared me too much.

Sport Boys visits another Argie club - Godoy Cruz from Mendoza. Just a reminder - Sport Boys coach is the biggest coaching legend in Bolivian - Litost' basque compatriot Azkagorta.
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Old 19-04-17, 18:03   #17
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ha ha miccho EM and the montainers ... brou ... fact is high does not mean they leave in mountains ... altiplano actally meand high-plateau sort of like our iberian "meseta" only 2k+ higher ....

bolivian also has highs mountaisn but most people lives┤on falt altiplano - and some of it is both very very flat and dry ...like near chile border with martian like scenary┤s like solar uyuni and surroundinsgs will will apear in next star wars movie & otehr similar deserted areas looking very much like the moon on a sunny day ... -- and or lower easter lands ..with diferent views , culture and even archtype pipole on both realms .... imo ...

i once spent months on those lands with backpack back in 90,s crist that was fun ..

at peru and otehr andian countries they do have both moantainera and mountains themselves !! like cusco and surroundins with inca trail and buitifull postcards and so on ...

i am just talking in my humble opinion .... not trying to give lessons couse all i know is nothing and so on ...

ha ha he lol good old azcargorta i think he was at helm at bolivar when they recehed semis ..that was a weard libertadores tough ..was it the brasil wc one right .. weard one ...
"el bigoton" or "el vasco" as tehy call him is a legend overtheer after taking bolivia to 94┤WC in teh states ... but i doubt his coaching skills are so great for nowaday footie ..its those young spaniards like san jose or jubero that are making diference trying to introduce more academical/theorical european less canchero footie to southamerica ..sometimes its working .. bolivar look great deal ... they just crushed tigre after losing league last minute vs la paz archrival ....


yeap i had a hint on lanus i always think this teams with same coache for long an dplayers can always turn it on and get back at their level ... zulia stats talk themselves but result at nacional got me scare ... i was wondering when i woke up this morning .. ha he hi lol .. was it black or red crist shakes ... ...


sport boys at godoy ... bookies treat SP like they got trashed rightly at galo .... odds do not apeal ....

libertad comes from two bad results ...i watched them vs godoy and they were on top but stupid mistake by side defender cost them dearly ... as long as there is no problem betwnee coach and players i think libertad can beat those jokers from at MG ...

zamora iquique soem fellon from other forum keeps saying chileans from iQ do not care about libertadores and want have a go at domestic chship .. he says pitch is awfull an dchileans will have hard time ... ..probably right ...

i am looking at all home teams with nice odds except godoy wich is a game to follow live ...

above its stated brasilian teams are better on road .. well it suits them more not having to propose like fogao did at atletico nacional but also away from hoem they tend to faulter often .. too lazy and just end up being bullied ... at least on group stage they think wining at home game plus couple points is enuf ... crist aint this a freekin book or what
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Old 19-04-17, 18:54   #18
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I like over 2.5 in libertad

goody cruz had many chances to score as did libertad. Libertad played gung ho in the first half and in the 2nd totally ran out of steam. I can see maybe 2-2 or 2-1
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Old 19-04-17, 19:07   #19
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Libertad coach is the Spaniard, who was coaching Olimpia Asuncion last season - when they were one of the most overish teams in South America.
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Old 19-04-17, 19:20   #20
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indeed and guarani before ....

they leave many spaces ....
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Old 19-04-17, 22:16   #21
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cheers ive been looking at pincha vs atletico and u just have to lay locasl ...not serious to field a guy like veron 2+ years w/o comp footie on his legs and way above 40┤s ...

it worked last times vs barcelona and it shall be again dificult oen vs verdolagas always rock solid under rueda ..those odds do not aply even if its away in libertadores ...

cerro porte˝o -1 looke great deal at guarani league ...
"host" (its played at defensores ) with great feelings and oponennts with up to 6 missings .. for such ateam can be paid and we know cerro olimpia and co are always one step above ....
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Old 19-04-17, 23:09   #22
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Date: 20.4.2017
Sport: Football
Event: Copa Libertadores
Start time: 02:45
Game: Libertad Asuncion (Par) v Atletico Mineiro (Bra)
Pick: Over 2,5 goals @2,10 or more!
Bookies Offer: SBO Bet @2,11!
Stake: 10/10
Analysis:
Our second and last football bet will take us to South America: Copa Libertadores is in early stages, this is Group 6 match between Libertad from Paraguay and Atletico Mineiro, one of Brasilian great teams. Still, this is not going to be easy for guests.
Both teams like to play attacking football and I like Brasilians this season. In all competitions they are scoring a lot. First two games they played in Libertadores, they played scoring games: 1-1 away at Godoy Cruz and 5-2 at home against Bolivian Sport Boys. Now they will travel to the similar team, a team that like to play and score.
Libertad also needs to attack, because they need to win. If they don`t, they will travel to Brasil with 3 points deficit which could rise to 6 if they lose there, too. So, another reason to go for a win. In the first two rounds they too scored and received a lot (3-3 at Sport Boys and 1-2 against Godoy Cruz).
This is a perfect over bet, both to score, my call is 2-2 draw!
GL!
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Old 20-04-17, 10:35   #23
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Here are my suggestions for tonight:

Codoy Cruz - Sport Boys

Sport Boys showed that they play offensive football , no matter who are they against. They've scored 2 goals against Atletico Mineiro in Brazil, which was kinda surprisng . However , they've conceded 5 , but reading the news today, the coach stated that he will put once again offensive squad and will not just play with 10 players in the back.

Codoy are doing well so far with 4 points and a good chance to become 1-st in the group , after the defeat of Atletico MG last night.

I don't know why the odds for Over 2.5 goals are so high , i assumed they would be somewhere in the range of 1.55 - 1.60, because bolivians are playing really offensive football and that should lead to goals. My prediction is Over 2.5

Guarani - Gremio

Tough game to predict once again. Both teams in good form with best possible squads. Gremio will have important game for the Campeonato Gaucho this weekend and might not be 100 % invested in this one , as they alredy have 6 points and the return game in Brazil next week. I won't bet on this game , but i think that Guarani DNB is a good option.

Medelin - Melgar

I really don't like both teams and it's hard to predict something here. Medelin need the 3 points at all cost or they are pretty much out of the tournament. They will have Quintero back from injury. He is a key player in the midfield and that might help them a lot.

Melgar scored 2 goals against River , but i think the argentinians underestimated them a lot. The game could have ended 8:2 , but River managed to score "only" 4.

Hard to predict as i mentioned , but i will suggest Melgar +1.5 AH @ 1.68

Barcelona - Botafogo

Barcelona are very strong at home. They have only 2 defeats in the last 30 home games in all tournaments. However they've lost the Ecuadorian "Classic" in the weekend against Emelec with 1:0. They've also will have 3 important players missing this game - Oyola , Diaz and Erick Castillo. All are in the midfield and Castillo is the most important , cuz he is kinda the playmaker of the team. Big blow for sure.

Nothing important from Botafogo in terms of missing or suspended players for this game.

Don't think such low odds are fair for Barcelona , especially with the missing players in the midfield - im going for X2
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Old 20-04-17, 10:42   #24
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I rarely have some lack betting on southamerican football. Seems to me home advantage are strong factor, as well as motivation. So the form factor doesnt represent anything. Not just in this competition but also in sa leagues.

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Old 20-04-17, 13:09   #25
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I agree with Kompany, Godoy Cruz vs Sport Boys should bring us some goals and surprisingly we have really good odd for Over 2,5 goals...I also expected much lower odds for over for this match...

I disagree about Melgar...I don't see any value on Melgar (+1,5)...I would rather take Ind.Medellin (-1,5 AH) with odds 2,20 or only Ind.Medellin win (1,4)...For me they are better team, home ground, "must win" situation...For me home win will be great for some combo material...

Other two matches are tough to predict, but I will try with a draw...Guarani vs Gremio, draw will be ok for both sides. Guarani at home against little better team, both have 6 points, so draw will be ok for both sides. but of course for low stakes...
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Old 20-04-17, 14:04   #26
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10x for the insights, guys!

I am low on confidence in this tournament, therefore won't give any tips, just share my impression from games I watched.

Sport Boys have legend Carlos Tenorio upfront. Of course, he is slow, fat and old, but he can be still very dangerous in the air and he has got deadly touch in the penalty area. He proved it vs Mineiro, when he annihilated the defender in the air and scored fantastic header. Sport Boys have a good transition game for a midtable Bolivian team (meaning they move the ball from their own penalty area to the one of the opponent smoothly and smartly).


Melgar also have a very good striker for their status - Herrera, who was playing in Liga MX and was one of the good forwards few years ago. But their defense looks awful, although I doubt Independiente can show the same attacking game as River Plate.
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Old 26-04-17, 21:56   #27
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Libertad +1 @ 1.82

after watching galovs a joketeam like SB imo gumarelo are worth a shoot ..i knowhome adv is huge at libertadores ....with refs pushing and galohas huge firepower but guest are a good side with some exp defenders and motivated youngsters ..theyll probably move ball around soundly and may even surprise .... not high stakes tough ... pressure will be big ...libertadplayed thus far .. in not at best shape pithces ...losing vs godoy sounds doddgy but we aint afraid of no mineirao ....
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Old 26-04-17, 22:08   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by litost View Post
Libertad +1 @ 1.82

after watching galovs a joketeam like SB imo gumarelo are worth a shoot ..i knowhome adv is huge at libertadores ....with refs pushing and galohas huge firepower but guest are a good side with some exp defenders and motivated youngsters ..theyll probably move ball around soundly and may even surprise .... not high stakes tough ... pressure will be big ...libertadplayed thus far .. in not at best shape pithces ...losing vs godoy sounds doddgy but we aint afraid of no mineirao ....
I agree here. Galo looked very flat and soft. Their defense is all over the place. They lack sharpness and speed in their attacks.

Libertad coached by the Spanish coach, who is like a coaching legend in Paraguay - the best manager in the country. They are a very solid team, which can even repeat the run of Independiente del Valle from last season.
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Old 26-04-17, 22:15   #29
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yeap indeed this coach has made a name over there even tough i think he comes from academy surroundings and did not coached many senior sides here .... that sort of coaches that end in middle east or asia .... some of them end up in SA lately ...
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Old 26-04-17, 22:18   #30
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Yeah, but he is a young dude, so he has plenty of time to learn and develop. I can see how much Olimpia changed for the bad after releasing him (because he lost in Libertadores). Same players, but now they play completely crap football. And he went to the small team Libertad and is leading the league.
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