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Old 16-05-18, 13:22   #1
WiserthantheCrowd
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Default England League 2 Play-Offs

2 matches coming up:

Exeter vs. Lincoln City this Thursday

Odds are even in the qualification market - both sit at around 1.9. This doesn't make sense to me. Exeter have had a better season overall and come into this match having gotten the draw away. Lincoln City have never beaten Exeter at home and I'd favor the home side who also made the finals of the play-offs last year. Moreover, while they are defensively strong, Lincoln City haven't been scoring much as of late. Based on form, history and home advantage, I see value in taking Exeter to qualify and/or Exeter DNB at even odds. These 2 clubs are a considerable distance away from each other and there shouldn't be many visitors in attendance.

Notts County vs. Coventry on Friday

This is a similar situation to the other match. The odds on qualifying are roughly even and the first match ended in a draw. Indeed it was a very lucky draw for Coventry because they attained it by way of an unjustified penalty (which they themselves admitted). This should give the home side added motivation. Notts County have never lost to Coventry at home and they had a marginally better season. I don't get why the qualifying markets are roughly even. Maybe punters are simply going by name recognition (and Coventry were once a household name in English football). I see value in taking Notts County DNB and/or Notts County to qualify at even odds. While these 2 clubs are only 50 kilometres apart, the visitors will be restricted to 300 or so tickets so that there won't be much support at hand to cheer them on.

Any and all comments are welcome.

Last edited by WiserthantheCrowd; 16-05-18 at 14:54.
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Old 17-05-18, 06:33   #2
waterbug
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WiserthantheCrowd View Post
2 matches coming up:

Exeter vs. Lincoln City this Thursday

Odds are even in the qualification market - both sit at around 1.9. This doesn't make sense to me. Exeter have had a better season overall and come into this match having gotten the draw away. Lincoln City have never beaten Exeter at home and I'd favor the home side who also made the finals of the play-offs last year. Moreover, while they are defensively strong, Lincoln City haven't been scoring much as of late. Based on form, history and home advantage, I see value in taking Exeter to qualify and/or Exeter DNB at even odds. These 2 clubs are a considerable distance away from each other and there shouldn't be many visitors in attendance.

Notts County vs. Coventry on Friday

This is a similar situation to the other match. The odds on qualifying are roughly even and the first match ended in a draw. Indeed it was a very lucky draw for Coventry because they attained it by way of an unjustified penalty (which they themselves admitted). This should give the home side added motivation. Notts County have never lost to Coventry at home and they had a marginally better season. I don't get why the qualifying markets are roughly even. Maybe punters are simply going by name recognition (and Coventry were once a household name in English football). I see value in taking Notts County DNB and/or Notts County to qualify at even odds. While these 2 clubs are only 50 kilometres apart, the visitors will be restricted to 300 or so tickets so that there won't be much support at hand to cheer them on.

Any and all comments are welcome.
agreed ex vs Lin. odds are funny. home team should be hot bet here. but I think no one company want to pay much in this match. they give high odds here I think they are already know away team lin will not loss in 90 min. i will bet away team follow the odds.
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Old 18-05-18, 11:08   #3
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agreed ex vs Lin. odds are funny. home team should be hot bet here. but I think no one company want to pay much in this match. they give high odds here I think they are already know away team lin will not loss in 90 min. i will bet away team follow the odds.
It's the bookies that set the odds and the markets that move them. My hunch is that this market wasn't so liquid to begin with and most of the betting was by fans of the teams so that the market didn't move much... Following the odds did not pay off in this case because Exeter won the match in regular time 3-1. The value was clearly with the home side.

Let's see what happens with Notts County tonight. It may not be as easy for them as it was for Exeter - apparently there will be 4.500 Coventry fans in attendance so that this may cancel out their home advantage to some degree (depending on how loud they are - they should still be outnumbered 3-1). Nonetheless, I fancy Notts County not to lose in regular time and have taken them in the AH(0) market...

Last edited by WiserthantheCrowd; 18-05-18 at 14:41.
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Old 18-05-18, 19:11   #4
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I think it was a fair result in 1st leg, even with that fake penalty. It was the conditions which favored the Pies, heavy rain with waterlogged pitch which favors the more physicall team as Notts play direct long ball. On a normal pitch i think Coventry is bit superior, they can definitelly cause problems here and i think they will do just that, imo to me they look slightly superior.
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Old 18-05-18, 19:25   #5
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I think it was a fair result in 1st leg, even with that fake penalty. It was the conditions which favored the Pies, heavy rain with waterlogged pitch which favors the more physicall team as Notts play direct long ball. On a normal pitch i think Coventry is bit superior, they can definitelly cause problems here and i think they will do just that, imo to me they look slightly superior.
At home I favor Notts County but if this goes into ET, Coventry may have an edge - they're a few years younger on average... Should this go all the way to penalties then Notts would be my choice - their GK Adam Collins is the penalty king. He's been involved in 7 shoot-outs and won all of them...
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