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Old 29-11-17, 21:14   #1
Underdogchance
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Default Wednesday 29/11/2017: Betting analysis - Montreal vs Ottawa

MONTREAL CANADIENS vs OTTAWA SENATORS


Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens will meet for the second time this season. They played only one game on 30th October 2017 and Montreal Canadiens beat Ottawa on the road. It was humiliating loss by 8-3 and this was one of the best games for Montreal this season. After that they were struggling big timeÖ.


Bookmakers odds and my projected odds

Bookmakers opened this game where they gave better chances to Montreal, which makes sense. They are playing better, Ottawa Senators are struggling and after the last information, that Ottawa might play with Mike Condon and Montreal with Carey Price, the odds dropped even more on Montreal. Right now, you can get Ottawa at 2.38 (+138 US odds) on Bitcoinrush. Public will be with Montreal today and a lot of people think, that this will be an easy win for them.

However, my betting models has different opinion on that game. I have two betting models for NHL and I will take a look at both models to see if there is a value and with this I will try to make better bets. After struggling to the start of this NHL season, I will try to look at the games from all kind of angles.

H/A Game P# GF/G GA/G xOFF+ xDEF+ PP PK Win% Odds US Odds Totals
Away Ottawa Senators 23 3.05 3.36 18 26 26 19 58.50% 1.71 -141
5.39
Home Montreal Canadiens 26 2.40 3.24 30 27 27 23 41.50% 2.41 141

One of those angles is my betting model, which gives Ottawa more than 58% of chance in this game. My fair odds according to this model are 1.71 (-141 US odds) on Ottawa and 2.41 (+141 US odds) on Montreal. I already adjusted the numbers because of goalie change in Ottawa. With those numbers I have a value with playing on Ottawa.

Second model gives me pretty same numbers:

H/A Game P# GF/G GA/G xOFF+ xDEF+ PP PK Win% Odds US Odds Totals
Away Ottawa Senators 23 3.05 3.36 100 107 26 19 0.58 1.73 -136
5.15
Home Montreal Canadiens 26 2.40 3.24 76 111 27 23 0.42 2.36 136
This model is more simple model where the value is also on Ottawaís side.

Public might overreact here on the HabsÖ

Streaks are part of the game in sport and in betting as well. But letís take a look on performance by both teams this season. Ottawa Senators score 3.05 goals per game, I rank their offence according to my xOFF+ statistic as league average offence. On the other side Montreal offence scores only 2.40 goals per game and this is one of their weakest points. They scored only 60 goals this season and only Buffalo Sabres have scored less than Montreal. I rank their offence way below league average.

When it comes to defences, both teams allowed too many goals this season in my opinion. I believe, that both teams have a lot of potential. Montreal has one of the best goalies in the world, who is not playing at the highest level, the level we would expect from him. Ottawa allow 3.36 goals per game and I rank their defence for 7% weaker than league average. Montreal on the other side allow 3.24 goals and I rank their defence even worse than Ottawa. Here are also included special teams and Montreal are 23th in the league in penalty kill.

But Ottawa lost 6 straight games. They are struggling right now and today they will play a game against the team, against to whom they lost at home by 8-3. And this was the time, where they didnít struggle that much.

But when we talk about Montreal, they didnít impress me at all. They won 2 straight games and a lot of people might overreact here. Before those two games they lost 5 straight games. They also lost 6 out of last 9 games. In those two last games, they beat Buffalo and they beat Columbus. But there is one information that can not be ignored. They have been outplayed in both games by shots per game. Buffalo outplayed them by 10 shots (36 vs 26 shots) and Columbus outplayed them by 10 shots again (38 vs 28) where they didnít score in 5 power play opportunities. Carey Price was playing much better and when he is hot, he can be game changer, but I would still not overreact based on last 2 games. And he just came back from injury. If we stick with the facts both teams are struggling right now and have negative record in recent games.

Ottawa road record and Montreal home recordÖ

Ottawa is 8-14 to the season. They play below expectations, but the only winning situation for them is playing on the road. Their road record is 5-4, where they score 3.4 goals per game, allow 3 goals per game and they outplayed home teams by 4.7 shots per game.

Montreal on the other side is 10-15 to the season and they have negative record at home. They are 6-7 at home, where they score 2.3 goals per game and allow 2.8 goals per game. In last 5 games they were outplayed by 4.2 shots per game and they score only 1.8 goals per game.

So, we have one team, that has winning road record and one team, that has negative home record.

Goalie matchup

Carey Price is back and we all know what he means for this team. He is maybe the best goalie in NHL and he signed a huge contract, which puts a lot of pressure on him. A lot of fans are not happy with this too.


From twitter:
Carey Price: signs $84M contract and turns into Antti Niemi #classicprank #habs


I donít know if this pressure was also one of the reasons, that he didnít play well this season, but I would not overreact here too much. I will stick with the facts and his numbers. His SV% this season is 0.898, which is below league average. According to GAA%- his is just at 116 this season, where 100 is league average and if the number is bigger, then he is weaker then league average. He played 13 games so far and has 0.385 quality starts, which is way below expectations. His career QS is at 0.587 and he can do much better. I believe he will play much better, but maybe this is the season, where he will have little bit lower numbers. After all his performance is also very affected by his teammates. And they are not playing well.

Ottawa Senators on the other side have huge problems with the goalies. Craig Anderson is sitting at SV% of 0.895, which is pretty close to Price numbers and he can play also much better (career numbers: SV% 0.919). But they will not go with him tonight. According to latest information that I have Ottawa will start with Mike Condon. Is this good decision? Well, first of all he has better GAA%- rating than Anderson this season (109 vs 119). His GAA%- rating is even better than Carey Price rating, which is 116. Mike Condon played only 6 games this season and holds SV% of 0.904. But his career numbers are not that bad. He is a backup goalie for the most part of his career and he did well so far. His career SV% is 0.913. Last season was his best season when he played 40 games and his SV% was 0.914. Craig Anderson was out in many games, he had some personal issues and Mike Condon was playing a lot. At some point he was the hottest goalie in NHL. So with the current situation in Ottawa with the goalies, I donít see any huge difference between Condon and Anderson.

Overall I still rank Carey Price higher then both goalies from Ottawa, but he is not playing that well this season.

Injuries and missings

Ottawa is playing without Mark Borowiecki, Chris Wideman and Clarke MacArthur. MacArthur is out since September and is not a factor for this team. He didnít contribute any points this season. He played 4 games in 2015/16 and 4 games in 2016/17. Borowiecki and Wideman are important players. Wideman is even more important than Karlsson this season.

Montreal Canadiens will miss Artturi Lehkonen, Nikita Scherbak and Ales Hemsky. None of this players are big factor in this game. But they could be without Shea Weber and David Schlemko, who are questionable today. Here the things are little bit different, because Weber is their most important defender, second most important player this season and according to points, he has collected 13 points. He scored 4 goals and has 9 assists. Only Drouin and Gallagher have more points than himÖand he is just a defender, but very good one. So, if they play without him, he will be big miss for Montreal. And according to the latest information, he will miss this game.

Trends and other interesting information

Ottawa is much better team on the road and they are 5-1 on the road against teams, that have losing home record (Montreal 6-7 at home). There is one interesting information about Ottawa playing on Wednesday, where they went 7-3 in last 10 Wednesday games, but I would not pay too much attention to this information. Ottawa also lost 4 straight games in Montreal.

Montreal on the other side 15-22 as a home favourite in last 37 games. And when it comes to Wednesday games, they are 0-5 in last 5 Wednesday games. I add this information, because it is interesting, because one team is playing well on Wednesday and the other team is not. But I donít pay a lot of attention to this. What is more important for this Montreal team is that, they can not connect couple of good games. They re just 5-11 after they played very good defensive game, where they allowed 2 goals or less. and today they will meet a team, that scores 3.4 goals per game.

Conclusion and my recommended bet

Ottawa is struggling right now. They lost 6 straight games, which is bad at this moment. They are definitely hungry and they will definitely be very motivated after a humiliating loss against Montreal at home this season by 8-3. And the best way to revenge that game would be a win in Montreal.

A lot of people see that they are not playing well, especially in the defence, but a lot of people will also overreact on Montreal here. First of all Montreal is not playing well too. They are among 5 worst teams according to points in NHL this season. Yes, they won 2 straight games, but they still lost 5 previous games before that. Yes, they will have Carey Price back in the net and showed much better performance in last 2 games, but he is still below 0.900 this season. I donít say, that he will finish with such numbers at the end of the season, but it is for sure, that he is not playing like last season. Maybe he will play like last season, maybe he will not. We donít know yet. I will just stick with the facts from this season and his record is just 5-8.

Despite those struggles by Ottawa right now, I still rank them higher than Montreal this season. They score more and they have slightly better special teams.

When it comes to injuries and missing, at the first look Ottawa is in worse situation, but according to the latest information, where it is very likely that Weber will not play this game, I think there will not be any advantage. In fact I think, that Montreal will miss him more, than Ottawa their players.

The odds dropped, when it was announced, that Ottawa will play with their backup goalie, but hey, I donít know who is better this season Ė Mike Condon or Craig Anderson. According to Sv% and GAA%- numbers Condon is better than both Ė Price and Anderson in 2017/18. So, I donít have any problem going with Condon here. Yes he made a big mistake against Arizona and he is not good puckhandling goalkeeper, but I believe he will not make the same mistake here. After all he is 0.913 career goalie and very good backup option.

My model favours Ottawa here. I understand, that Canadiens have Price in the net and he can be the difference at any time. But still, I think Montreal is overrated here. They are still below average team, they still have losing home record, they still have losing record this season and two games mean nothing. The odds are more than +130 now on Ottawa and I think we have a value with the Senators.

Use all those information here and take the team, that you like. The last decision must be always yours. But based on current odds, I would recommend a bet on the underdog here.

RECOMMENDED BET: OTTAWA SENATORS at 2.36 (+136)
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