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Old 03-06-18, 10:23   #1
Miccho
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Default NBA Finals

I am not an expert in basketball, but I have seen some pattern in such playoff games with clear favorite and an underdog - let's call it "zig zag effect". If the first among two consecutive home games the favorite beats heavily the handicap, then the second game is much closer and more contested. Accordingly, if the first home game is very close and stays below the handicap line, the second one is a blowout in favor of the favorite.

Of course, eventually Warriors won with a big margin, but only after extra time. The regular time was very contested and Cavs almost won it (if it wasn't for the stupidity of their player in the end). I feel Cavs morale will be very hurt after failing to get a very winnable game away from home. And Warriors will likely be more focused tonight, so it is going to be a +10 points home win.

But as I said, I am far from expert in this sport and league. So, I'd appreciate comments from guys who know more about it.
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Old 03-06-18, 11:07   #2
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Youre right my friend, zig-zag is a perfectly legit tool to use in playoffs. And it makes sense to use it here as it is unlikely Warriors will shoot that poor again. But few things which makes me stay away from actually backing them: Warriors are far from what people call Warriors basketball, you know that trademark where they were spotted using speed, colective play, finding the right shooter etc. They continue to play this dumb ISO which clearly doesnt suit them at all, thats why Houston series was so close, and they almost lost it, thats why first game was so close and they almost lost it. Playing ISO, one on one isolation, means you take out your strenght which is speed, team play, ability to pass and brings out the individual power so James loves this, as he is beast on one on one,thats why he dropped over 50 because they just cant defend him playing that kind of D, that and also Iguodala out which is one of best defending LeBron out there.
As a team Cavs are all about Love and James but as long as Warriors plays this ISO crap which doesnt suit them at all, all games will be close, and it is more likely for this to happen because i was expecting this change from Houston series but it didnt happen, playoffs are like this in NBA, slow possesion and ISO. Prolly there will be a game where Warriors explosion will happen, but its more likely to come after a defeat. With Iguadala still unlikely to return James will continue to drop high numbers, i think its the only bet worth here. Warriors are not to be trusted yet, Durant is not on killing mode and Splash brothers are on and off, altghough they have better team, better coach but they just play to Cavs strenghts.
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Old 03-06-18, 12:42   #3
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Whatever you pick I would wait news on Klay and Iguodala. First one is more likely to play, but with heavily taped ankle, while Iguodala is big difference maker for Warriors, both in their offensive flow and in guarding Lebron. I don't think Warriors are as dominant w/o him.
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Old 03-06-18, 15:17   #4
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I want make a move here, even if Klay plays. Sirac's argumentation is very logical. I thought GSW hesitations were due to weak concentration, but it seems it is a more deep tactical issue. They are trying to make their game suit Durant, thus sacrificing their great ball movement.
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Old 03-06-18, 16:40   #5
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The way I see it, Warriors are very thin in forward depth, so missing Iguodala makes a big difference, it also forces Looney and even McGee to play much more than they wanted, hence they don't scare anyone at the moment. In fact, if CP3 was healthy, I am confident we would watch this series being played in Texas now. The problem with supporting Cavs here is they missed a big chance in game 1, and by all reports their locker room was very deflated after the game, will they be able to bounce back today or will they get frustrated if the game starts slipping and mail it in?
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Old 03-06-18, 18:32   #6
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Everything points towards a blowout but i'm not convinced in that. Klay is questionable and if he miss out it will be massive blow for Warriors. GS are well known to demolish their opponents in 3rd quarter so one bet which i find a good one is Cavs +6,5 @HT. Yes Cavs lost Game 1 on a let's say tough way but there is no time to be sad, they have to focus and put same effort to make it difficult for hosts. I think that it will be close at least till half time. Also GS' bench is really awful at the moment and they can't save the lead when they are on the court.
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Old 04-06-18, 01:50   #7
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Much better from Warriors, shooting way better, Durant in killing mode and playing much better D. As soon as Curry starts hitting his share Cavs will be put to bed.
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Old 04-06-18, 15:37   #8
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Now I'm tempted for James over in Game 3, he will again try and play like in Game 1. Also Warriors clear win is 1.50+, that's seriously tempting.
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Old 04-06-18, 22:44   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KL1NCUNT View Post
Now I'm tempted for James over in Game 3, he will again try and play like in Game 1. Also Warriors clear win is 1.50+, that's seriously tempting.
Yep im tempted as well but its more risky now because Warriors are playing to limit his numbers. They put McGee in starting lineup to protect the rim better and every jumper of LeBron was contestated. Still he got his share and if not the bench stepping in for garbage time prolly would have had a chance to beat the line, even playing poor and being handled way better by Warriors defense, Green done a very good job. But prolly they will make adjustments now, and refs should give them a hand so will prolly take it. They should bring their best here as this is their last card , if they go 0-3 its game over, so i think they will show differen face here and they cannot miss so many open shots yet again, altghough they do have some crap players, so prolly isnt wrong to asume its more likely they will continue to miss those shots.
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Old 05-06-18, 21:04   #10
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More thoughts for game 3? Value in Cavs @ 2.65?
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