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Old 25-10-14, 15:22   #1
99022077
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Default NBA betting preview, in which spots teams are possible bets

NBA starts Tuesday, I will post picks in first 2 months of the season until Christmas. Then probably bet close to nothing until End of March, and then restart from April on until finals. Those months January-March have been historically my worst due to excellent bookies having enough stats by then to make super sharp lines.

Last year I had very improbably winning run in last 2 months, even though I dont bet fulltime anymore. I will try to continue this year but please remember that because I am not a pro bettor anymore, I dont research as long as I used to. Last year it was still enough to turn a profit but I never know how long it will last, so please proceed with caution as always. Past results are not a guarantee for wins this season.

I will post here short summaries where I expect profitable spots for all 30 teams in this season. Since I focus on ML dog bets, I will write down, which dog spots are profitable for this season for each team. Post will be split in 3 parts, with 10 team previews each.

Good luck for NBA betting 2014/2015

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Old 25-10-14, 15:27   #2
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Welcome back mate, good luck with the upcoming season.
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Old 25-10-14, 23:27   #3
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Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics:
Small improvement expected with Rondo back soon, a decent Draft and some improvement by Sullinger and Olynyk. Still a work in progress, the team lacks shooting and looks more like a college team with holes everywhere. Former College coach Brad Stevens will do his best, but still many losses to be expected, rebuilding continues.

Back when: Rondo is very unpredictable, sometimes great, sometimes poor. I would think of betting Boston after a few losses with Rondo playing poor, hoping for one magic night of him for a dog win.

Fade when: As long as the holes are so big, Boston can almost always be faded when favorite. I would look for teams with a decent frontcourt defense, who can disturb Olynyk and Sullinger with height and athletism. They lost twice to Milwaukee and 3 times to Philadelphia, that's a testament to how poor they can be even vs. The 2 worst teams.


Brooklyn Nets:
Pierce and Livingston out, but they werent the greatest players ever. Health for Deron Williams and Brook Lopez are key. New coach Lionel Hollins will play a bit faster but demand more respect from the players than former Jason Kidd. Veteran team with veteran coach should have similar results like his former Memphis teams.

Back when: Veteran teams usually travel very well and can perform on the Road whenever they decide to focus on a game. Look for them to make some good away wins, when they have momentum or when they got embarrassed shortly before in a game and want to bounceback

Fade when: They cant always play at their optimum due to age and there will be some nights, where the whole team including the coach will know, that it's gonna be a very tough night after expending so much energy in the games before. As road favorites vs. Poor but young teams, I would try to find a spot to fade them. They got 4 away losses combined at Orlando, Philly and Boston last year.

New York Knicks:
New coach but same problems, Triangle alone wont solve their issues. Chandler gone, who defends the rim? New PG Calderon must play very well + young Wings Hardaway and Shumpert must improve drastically for any hope.

Back when: Definitely rather on the road, since most opponents love to win at Madison Square Garden. Whenever home losses are piling up, they could be a decent bet as small away dogs vs. The bottom teams.

Fade when: Those sunday noon home games are completely wacky for New York, would fade them there almost every time as favorites vs. Hungry teams. Home advantage will be more of a disadvantage again betting-wise for NYK.

Philadelphia 76ers:
Still tanking the season with lots of new faces. Even though they spend zero money, they let everyone walk away and replace them with garbage guys and rookies. Everybody expecting same season like last year with same results.

Back when: On the road vs the other poor teams we might see a chance to back them. But even then you really need a good price. Cant back them as home dogs with no home support.

Fade when: For me never, simply because they will be so rarely favorites, I can almost never fade them.

Toronto Raptors: Trade of Rudy Gay saved their season, great progress and good chemistry. Team stayed together, Kyle Lowry will try to proof he is worth the money. Some more young guys could improve more. Team on the uprise, expected to win the division.

Back when: Good team to back as long as they are not in a big winning streak, because they get underrated because few public bettors watch their games in Canada. They are a legit top 3 team in the East but get rated as a borderline playoff team. They travel well and have a good home crowd. Only avoid betting them, when they win too much and get too fashionable of a betting team.

Fade when: Still a young team and can make mistakes in close games, especially at home vs experienced teams, e.g. their playoff series loss vs Brooklyn. They were more talented as a team but blew it in 2 close home losses. Experienced teams will try to do the same whenever they come to Toronto, slow the game down, make it an ugly low-scoring game and frustrate the youngsters.
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Old 26-10-14, 00:07   #4
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Central Division

Chicago Bulls:
Big hopes with Derrick Rose back, Pau Gasol choosing them and Butler and Gibson hopefully improving. Defense will take a while to get back to same level, but maybe after 2 months they could become a real force.

Back when: As soon as their defense is clicking, they can beat any team as a dog, no matter home or away. That defense can be so stifling, it even shuts down the absolute elite teams.

Fade when: Early in the season they could lose to teams on the road, who are shooting the lights out from outside when rotations are still not perfect in defense. Also they struggled with turnovers in preseason, so home teams who create steals could beat Chicago, when they might be tired from travelling.

Cleveland Cavaliers:
Big changes with LeBron, Kevin Love and Coach David Blatt. It will 100% need time to get all acclimated but after 2 months, they could be ready for big winning streaks.

Back when: They should win 50% of their away games vs the best teams in the league. So, just wait for a losing streak or 2 months and then look for good chances for them to make statement wins vs elite teams.

Fade when: First two months all teams will try to beat LeBron and the bookies will still have them rated as top team even though they still are not 100% ready to perform at their highest level. Teams who can penetrate and kick-out for 3s will really be a problem for Cavs early in season.

Detroit Pistons:
Coach Van Gundy always had success in regular season, biggest coaching improvement compared to last season. Talent is there, just the mix was wrong. Preseason was already a good success and they should compete for playoff seed.

Back when: They will be more disciplined and might win most winnable games, e.g. away games vs mediocre teams. They wont be world-beaters but will perform more steady and wont throw away games like they did last year

Fade when: They will have their occasional meltdown at home when they become undisciplined vs an ok team. Usually that will happen after a nice winning road trip or after a big win vs a top team. Then Coach Van Gundy will remind the team that it has to play 100% all time to win games.

Indiana Pacers:
Paul George out injured, Lance Stephenson gone, George Hill and David West not at their best, Roy Hibbert still limited offensively. They can only win by playing really ugly and defensive and hope for CJ Miles and Chris Copeland going nuts, which will happen not that often.

Back when: At home those streaky role players like Miles and Copeland can run hot easier and might just score enough to win as dogs.

Fade when: On the road they can lose to anybody when their shots dont fall. This team can experience games when they score less than 80 points, that wont be enough even vs the worst teams.

Milwaukee Bucks:
New coach Jason Kidd, but still severely lacking in talent, leadership and teamwork. Larry Sanders back will help, but no floor leader and inexperience will ensure a long losing season.

Back when: Young teams rather hold on to surprise leads vs favorites at home. Possibly tired teams or teams overlooking Bucks between two important teams are ripe opportunities for a surprise win by Bucks.

Fade when: Anytime they are favorites, that team can never guarantee a steady performance or following a gameplan. With so many unproven players, reliability is impossible in their results.
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Old 26-10-14, 02:47   #5
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Southeast Division

Atlanta Hawks:
Most boring competent team is an apt description for them. With Al Horford back, that team is pretty decent and with Budenholzer as coach, look for an improvement this season. Thanks to their low-paid role players, that team can stay together and have better teamwork and continuity than most other playoff teams.

Back when: As home dogs, Atlanta is interestingly a very decent bet. Not sure why but somehow good teams are overlooking the Hawks at their Phillips Arena.

Fade when: As home favorites they are actually less reliable than as road favorites. Still, Atlanta's reputation is so small, that it's almost never value to fade them, since nobody bets on them even though they deserve more recognition.

Charlotte Hornets:
Lance Stephenson will help but we have to see, if the defense is top-notch right from the start. Good feeling with the Hornets, expecting one more step in right direction. Health of Al Jefferson is big key, without him they lose so much offensive power.

Back when: They are positive as dogs both at home and on the road. There might be an odds adjustment by the bookies early in the season, so look out for backing the Hornets as dogs when they had a losing streak and they get treated with zero respect again. Compare their handicap lines with their handicap lines of last season to recognize, when they have value again (when they are similar to last year).

Fade when: If there is an overreaction by bookies early in season, fade the Hornets as road favorites. They might be a good team, but not good enough yet to dominate bad teams away on a consistent basis.

Miami Heat:
It's time again to rebuild without LeBron. They used to survive without him, and especially Erik Spoelstra should know exactly what to do and get his playbooks out from the past when he was assistant coach. Still the rest of the team is better than what Wade had before LeBron arrived, Bosh and Wade are still a good mix if healthy.

Back when: Veteran team, much trust in the coach should make them a decent bet on the road vs younger teams. Look for them to show good endgame execution to get some close dog road wins.

Fade when: If Wade does look gimpy or slow down, I could see fading them at home vs unattractive teams as potential winner. Key will be the public perception, if value fading Heat will appear during season. If they get hyped as potential playoff threat, then it's time to fade them.

Orlando Magic:
Terrible coaching, super young team. Rookie point guard, giving Afflalo away for almost nothing, again this is pure rebuilding with no hope for a winning season.

Back when: Young teams like Orlando can do some damage at home when they get underestimated and keep their lead until the end thanks to home court advantage

Fade when: Also young teams can never be trusted as favorites, they lost twice as road favorites at worst team Milwaukee.

Washington Wizards:
Ariza out, Pierce in, Otto Porter hoping to get more playing time. Beal injury early, Nene always questionable. Everybody expects good things from Wizards, but early this season I see a big danger of Wizards being overrated due to Power Rankings expectations and playoff success last year.

Back when: Washington at their best can win on the road easily as shown in playoffs. But they need all players to show teamwork and trust in each other. Look for Wizards to have good assists/turnover ratio and 3-point shooting, then they are a great bet as underdog.

Fade when: At home they still showed a few lapses in concentration, losing to inferior teams. If the bookies rate Wizards so high in Power Rankings, then fading them at home early in season or after some good wins is advisable
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Old 26-10-14, 05:15   #6
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Northwest Division:

Denver Nuggets:
Afflalo, Nate Robinson, McGee back will help but still that team is full of parts without a real fit. Their coach Brian Shaw must prove, the can instill a real system how the team plays. They took a big step back with George Karl leaving, Shaw has now the duty to make Denver play a style which fits his players.

Back when: At home they can catch fatigued older teams at altitude and beat them just by running them into the ground.

Fade when: At home vs young teams with young legs, they can also have catastrophic losses when the opponent is not tired and can run with them, e.g. home losses to Utah and Philadelphia.

Minnesota Timberwolves:
Flip Saunders replacing Rick Adelman is good because Adelman never was invested in that coaching job last season. Losing Kevin Love might be a blessing in disguise because his stats didnt really help his team winning. It's gonna be interesting if their good preseason can translate into early value for them.

Back when: They need all their veterans in good shape early, Pekovic, Young, Martin and Rubio. That's when there might be a chance for them to win a few dog games at home. I fear, they will play their youngsters a lot more later the season, making them impossible to back anymore.

Fade when: If the youngsters like Wiggins, LaVine and Dieng play more, they will blow some home leads later this season, that's when fading them as Home Favorites becomes a good play.

Oklahoma City Thunder:
Durant out 2 months, the young guys like Lamb, Jones III, Jackson and Adams must perform. They are still pretty athletic all around and might only miss Durant vs elite teams.

Back when: For many years now they win half their underdog road games. That's guaranteed profit with odds way over 2,0. No reason it shouldnt continue this year, so Thunder as decent road dogs is a long-term moneymaker

Fade when: At home without Durant there could be a small issue, who will take the final shot in the clutch. Some clever coached teams will try to shutdown all the role players and let Westbrook score 40+ points in a loss. Look out for coaches of teams, who will try that to win at Oklahoma.

Portland TrailBlazers:
After Spurs, the team which stayed with the most player minutes, only losing Mo Williams, who actually was a negative impact player. Maybe some more help from bench guys could improve their standings position, but Coach Stotts will continue to ride his stars until one of them injures himself.

Back when: For some time the Blazers were known as a tough out at home, but poor travellers. I see them as improved on the road thanks to Damian Lillard at PG and if he plays well and is in good form, they can do some damage as road warriors.

Fade when: Fatigue is the main opponent of Portland, with Stotts overworking his starting lineup. I might actually fade them rather at home after some good wins from them vs elite teams and then laying an egg vs a second-tier team like Memphis, Phoenix or Dallas.

Utah Jazz:
New coach Quin Snyder tries to give his super young team as much confidence as possible. He will let them play and encourage them to try things and experiment. Maybe that approach will unleash the potential of that team. It has more talent than winning just 25 games.

Back them: Bookies do respect the home advantage in Salt Lake City's altitude, so the value as home dogs is not really there anymore. So backing Utah you must go vs the common sense and try to get them as road dogs to find value.

Fade them: Unless Utah clearly exceeds expectations in first third of the season and bookies overadjust, I will avoid fading Utah. Their stock is so low, I believe they are a better team than right now at Bookies' Power Rankings, so value fading them is non-existing.
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Old 26-10-14, 12:03   #7
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@99022077 thanks heaps for this write up! ill be sleeping on the nba bible tonight
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Old 26-10-14, 17:17   #8
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Pacific Division

Golden State Warriors:
New coach Steve Kerr wants to improve on Golden State's style of running and gunning. Maybe Klay Thompson can make one more step to becoming an All-Star. If Bogut stays healthy and Kerr improves play-calling, Warriors could become a contender.

Back when: If the preseason stats are worth something, I would look to back Golden State as road dogs early in the season as long as all players are still healthy. The bench is not really deep, especially in the frontcourt. Any injury will seriously harm the defense.

Fade when: If Warriors get some impressive wins early, the overadjustment will start and their home handicaps will rise. That's when backing solid underdog teams travelling to Oakland will get some value.

LA Clippers:
Can Chris Paul stay healthy? Do Griffin and Jordan make one more step towards greatness? Clippers will only go so far, depending on their star players. The bench is still somewhat mediocre, Doc Rivers must find some more tricks up his sleeve.

Back when: They win more than half their underdog games thanks to Chris Paul controlling the game late. Whenever he is playing at 100%, they should be ready to be backed against any strong team.

Fade when: Very tough to find a spot to fade Clippers, their form trend is still upwards and beating them has become more and more difficult. Cant find a general good spot with them.


LA Lakers:
Kobe Bryant back, but he is not as effective as he used to be. All the new players like Lin or Boozer are mainly scorers. Defense will be terrible and opponents will score without any problem. I could imagine similar results like the last years of Michael Jordan at Wizards, e.g. some brilliant nights coupled with lots of losses. Coach Byron Scott is not a big help at all.

Back when: There will be some nights of Kobe magic in Lakers arena, it's just a quiz when it will be. And if Kobe gets out injured or rested late in season, Lakers will be able to get some nice odds away at crap teams in the East, that's also a nice chance for underdog ML wins.

Fade when: I see Lakers in same situation like Knicks. The opponents love to come to LA and display a great performance, kicking their ass in front of big screen. Also the home crowd of LA wont help vs the unattractive, but decent teams, e.g. lower home crowd than usual, e.g. games vs Utah, Milwaukee and Philly.

Phoenix Suns:
Losing Channing Frye will take a bit to replace, but maybe the Morris twins can make one more step further. Getting Thomas and Bledsoe back almost makes the backcourt too crowded, but Coach Hornacek wants to play so fast, that he is fine with so many Pgs on his roster. Defense looked good in preseason, look for Phoenix trying to start well this season.

Back when: Love them as road warriors because they play their own style of basketball no matter where. Many teams get more timid in hostile environment but Phoenix will just do what they always do and win quite some games on the road

Fade when: When you read about Phoenix becoming a contender, that's when you fade because the bookies have by then made their odds unattractive. But until that happens, I would only fade them vs young bottom teams, who can run with them.

Sacramento Kings:
Same story with Kings like every year, a rookie who doesnt help, a PG who is lower-tier, Rudy Gay who makes ineffective plays. Cousins will become an all-star but playoffs again impossible. I dont see any team cohesion or teamwork.

Back when: At home they can be competitive, and their poor execution gets a bit less visible thanks to their fans and energy. If they beat a bit older veteran teams at home, who just had a tough road win, it would not surprise me.

Fade when: Kings should never be favorites with poor late game execution, poor PG play, poor chemistry and coaching. They can lose at home to anybody, no doubt. e.g. home loss to Philly.
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Old 26-10-14, 18:50   #9
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great work buddy, great work, enjoying every sentence
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Old 26-10-14, 21:56   #10
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Southwest Division

Dallas Mavericks:
All hope for revival of Mavs 2011 with Chandler back, Parsons signed and a rested Nowitzki. Preseason looked decent but the PG play of Jameer Nelson, Raymond Felton will decide their destiny. They are super high on Power Rankings, so I rather stay away from backing them early. Dont forget, they lost over half their minutes of last season with Calderon, Carter and Marion gone!

Back when: It's all about late game execution with Dallas and Rick Carlisle. If their team and Point guards can execute in away games in close games, they will be a good away dog ML bet

Fade when: If we see some frustrating plays late with Dallas, losing close games like last year, then fading them as home favorites looks most interesting to me. Away they have been historically tough to beat, because Dirk plays almost every game hard and thanks to good coaching they dont give games away vs crap teams away.

Houston Rockets:
Parsons, Lin, Asik gone, Ariza back. That team lost key players and one single injury will derail them super quickly. They will start missing those players, when they lose games due to fatigue or poor nights from their 2 stars. Definitely on my fade list until market sours on them!

Back when: Only after they get blasted for ridicolous losses and become home dogs, that's when they could be backed. Look for them to become suddenly home dogs, that's when the opinion on this team has detoriated enough to back them again.

Fade when: I definitely think of fading them early at home vs the very good teams, later in the season fading them on the road vs poorer teams. They will start losing home games vs the best West tier teams, they simply arent good enough yet.

Memphis Grizzlies:
Look for Gasol to play hard for a new contract, but check on Zach Randolph if he looks in shape early this season. That team is still same like all those years, reliable and dangerous while not overpriced by bookies.

Back when: As long as it's not apparent to everybody that Memphis is a good team, they are a decent bet as road dogs. As long as you can see that Memphis is occasionally a home dog vs absolute elite like Cavs, Bulls or Spurs, Clippers, then there is enough value on them! As soon as they are even home favs vs those elite teams, it's time to abandon the ship.

Fade when: Almost impossible to fade, because they often are better than the betting public and bookies realize. It's not a flashy team, but they produce results, so fading them is not high on my list. They so rarely lose games, they should win.

New Orleans Pelicans:
Asik will help, but team chemistry with Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans remains a huge question mark. Anthony Davis is great, but I would not be surprised if they underperform again. Ryan Anderson has to play like an All-Star for this team to go anywhere.

Back when: With a little bit of luck, Pelicans will start slow and become small dogs on the road vs poor teams. That would be a good choice of backing them as small road dogs, because of talent disparity with those opponents

Fade when: Still they shouldnt be consistent road favorites, so if Pelicans start strong and are discussed as playoff team, fading them as road favorites is then the way to go.

San Antonio Spurs:
They kept absolutely everybody, even injured Patty Mills. That team is family and will never panic, they will stay on same course and continue like last year. Fading them will be tough to do, because they use every player on their roster, so you rarely catch them of fatigued off-nights.

Back when: Spurs like to save energy over the season while other teams have to play their stars all the time. After about 30-40 games, fatigue starts to appear and that's when road wins at Playoff teams could be a good spot to bet on Spurs.

Fade when: Bookies have a great feel for the Spurs, they rarely get surprised by them. I would look for letdown spots on the road after a few road wins or long travel vs hungry young upcoming teams e.g. Phoenix, Portland....


GENERAL TIPS:

Try to rate teams not only by their strength, but also by the lines/handicaps the teams are facing every day. Generally substract 3 points of the handicap to account for home advantage and you get the real strength according to bookies.

Example for opening night:
Spurs are -5 vs Mavericks, so Spurs are 2 points higher rated than Dallas. That's remarkable because Spurs are the champs and Dallas is seen as a strong contender, so Dallas probably not a great value play right now. However Dallas does play great as away dogs and banner night has been a bad spot for the champs in recent years. I could understand people betting Dallas.

Pelicans are 6,5 points higher than Orlando, that means either Pelicans are rated as playoff contender or Orlando as absolute poor team. Next handicap lines will reveal which it is.

Rockets are 9 points higher than Lakers, same situation here. That line actually emphasizes my feeling, the Rockets are a fade early this season. Maybe vs. Lakers it could still be enough, but if you wanna bet the Lakers that night, I would not have a big problem with that.

Good luck for NBA betting 2014/2015, may the first 2 months have lots of profit for us all!
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Old 27-10-14, 11:13   #11
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Absolute great work 99022077! Such deep knowledge second to none!

Can imagne people are willing to pay good money for such preview espcially while
taking in consideraton your yield so extra props for posting it here on BA for free!
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Old 27-10-14, 11:32   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Superstar Leo View Post
Absolute great work 99022077! Such deep knowledge second to none!

Can imagne people are willing to pay good money for such preview espcially while
taking in consideraton your yield so extra props for posting it here on BA for free!
appreciate the kind words, NBA betting is only a hobby for me, so I am totally fine posting it here. It helps me personally to get a good view on all 30 teams.

NBA is tough sport to make money, and I like my moneyline underdog betting style best for me, so readers should recognize, what I look for when posting bets. NBA is a sport where betting at the right MOMENT is more important than betting on the right TEAM because of all the travel and constant adjustment of odds by bookies.

Bettors should remember to first look at the situation of the team, how they feel and how important motivation is for that game, before they look at the pure quality of players. Bookies are very good in it, that's why NBA is so tough to beat. I like to remind bettors of that fact, so they dont fall into bookies traps.
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Old 27-10-14, 18:34   #13
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Great work m8. Very informative.
GL with ur bets!
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Old 27-10-14, 20:15   #14
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I found the absolute NBA ayatollah Thanks for sharing your knowledge with us and GL for this season ! Cheers
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Old 28-10-14, 01:41   #15
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Amazing work, very nice to read! Thanks for sharing your knowledge!
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Old 28-10-14, 10:54   #16
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Thanks for your time and your knowledge. Hope we enjoy NBA this season with your smart words.

Respect.
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Old 28-10-14, 15:57   #17
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world should be full of people like you mate. great contribution to this forum. i really thank you.
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Old 09-11-14, 23:18   #18
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I thought this kind of threads are supposed to be sticky.
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Old 11-12-18, 10:01   #19
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One thing about NBA I want to share with you folks:

If you are intended to bet on home/away win, please don't look for favorites here. This league is only good if you want to catch some high odd. Some reasons for that could be long season with little time to rest between the matches. I heard some former NBA players talking about how it feels playing matches in regular season, traveling day after day from one city to other. Sometimes they lose focus about date and time (travel-play-sleep-travel...). I doubt they looking at opponents like we are. Boston - OKC is very good game, but for the players it's one more match in 82 matches per regular season.

Considering that NBA is the best league in the world, and dream for every basketball player, there is no bad team in NBA. Everyone could beat everyone. The season is very long so it's impossible to play every match at high level. Sometimes player's won't have their night or will be tired, not motivated etc.

I remember many situation when some team play with their best players against team with many injured players and better team lost. Match Huston Minnesota, couple years ago, all starting 5 from Minnesota were injured, even their best player from the bench. Huston was with full squad, and second team of Minnesota destroyed Huston.

Because all of that I avoid betting on handicaps. I rather take some ML odds between 2.35 and 3.50 and bet on underdog. This could be very profitable in this league.
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