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Old 15-02-17, 08:58   #1
Underdogchance
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Default Projected Lines and Totals by Underdogchance

Hi,

I am specialized in NHL and MLB, but I also challenge myself in other sports. This month I challenge myself in European basketball.

I don't read any news, I don't follow teams or leagues, I just put the numbers and projected the lines. I did pretty well so far this is why I wanted to share today's projections with you.

I use different bookmaker every month for my challenge to test bookmakers as well. This month I have 188bet, but of course, you can play where you want and maybe you can get better lines on some other bookmakers.

In the picture you see my projected lines and totals versus 188bet.

I hope you can find something useful. Same units for each game. Odds already dropped on some games during my writing this post....

So my plays today for my challenge are:
Rethymno Cretan +5 @1.97
Promitheas -5 @1.97
Lavrio +10 @1.91
Science City Jena +11 @1.86


Good Luck if you play basketball leagues.


Last edited by Underdogchance; 16-02-17 at 09:43.
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Old 15-02-17, 19:47   #2
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Dude great job.
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Old 15-02-17, 19:49   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tininho View Post
Dude great job.
Thanks!

4-0

I will try to put some numbers here tomorrow as well.
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Old 15-02-17, 20:09   #4
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Impressive work! Unders also hit nicely in the Trikala and Horsholm games. I owe you a beer... or five.
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Old 15-02-17, 20:25   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roderik View Post
Impressive work! Unders also hit nicely in the Trikala and Horsholm games. I owe you a beer... or five.
Thanks... but I am not sure about totals, because I need to take into account OT (need more research - maybe I will do it)... Let's experiment in next days. I will have basketball challenge in February (after that I will challenge myself in Spain Primera - me and football = dissaster). But I hope I can help you somehow in next +10 days with basketball. So far I am doing really well. Just hope, that can continue - it is still very small sample size.
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Old 15-02-17, 21:16   #6
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Let's see what we have in NBA...

I would play:
CLEVELAND -6
SAN ANTONIO -10



Last edited by Underdogchance; 15-02-17 at 21:30.
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Old 16-02-17, 09:49   #7
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6-0 Yesterday

Ok, I will continue in this topic. I will throw out projections in next few days for couple of leagues. Maybe also Argentinian, Australian during the day to see how it works...

Thursday 16.2.2017


We have Final eight in Italy - I don't know if they play in their home areans or somehwere else. If they playe somewhere else, things could change....
Turkey - it is a cup, but it looks like my projections are pretty same than bookmakers
Danmark league

All in all - line movement is funny. When I created this picture the lines moved couple of times. I don't know how can you follow anyone who bet those leagues. You can get -6 now and in half hours it is -10. Just crazy... but ok, I am not here to comment those things. Here are my plays today for my challenge:

Horsens -8 @1.91
SISU/Horsens Under 175.5 @1.71
Milan/Brindisi Over 167 @1.9




Later I will maybe add some NBA or some Argentinian or Brazilian leagues.

Good Luck!
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Old 16-02-17, 10:03   #8
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Grear day yesterday. Following you today.

GL
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Old 16-02-17, 21:45   #9
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0-3 so far Regression was needed after 6-0 day

I will throw some NBA projections in next hour too
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Old 16-02-17, 22:57   #10
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As I mentioned in my first post - I don't follow basketball, I just put the numbers in. But today I checked injuries in Boston - Chicago game. It looks like couple of important players injured: Wade OUT for Chicago, Bradley, Jackson OUT for Boston. A lot of questions here.

No plays.
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Old 17-02-17, 09:59   #11
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Friday

San Sebastian -6.5 @1.74
CB Melilla - CB Miraflores Burgos Under 151 @1.89
San Sebastian - Caceres Under 154 @1.83
Unicaja - Valencia Over 156 @2.09





Not sure about those totals. Also I don't know who is injured and who is motivated or not. If you follow my picks, please adjust your numbers and combine with your other information. This is just "stats" part.

Good Luck!
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Old 17-02-17, 11:31   #12
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GL today
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Old 17-02-17, 13:55   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Underdogchance View Post
0-3 so far Regression was needed after 6-0 day

I will throw some NBA projections in next hour too
Thanks for your (very) good job!!!

...in Italy all matches are played in Rimini, each team is "away"
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Old 17-02-17, 14:04   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Underdogchance View Post
6-0 Yesterday



I've noted that your line for Sisu-Horsens is more big than reality: in fact, in the other two H2H (I don't count the last match, that anyway confirm the trend...) the gap was under 5 points.
Your system is very good, but perhaps it could be improve in this situation.

...this is only a reflexion, not a criticism!!!
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Old 17-02-17, 15:43   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Underdogchance View Post
Friday

San Sebastian -6.5 @1.74
CB Melilla - CB Miraflores Burgos Under 151 @1.89
San Sebastian - Caceres Under 154 @1.83
Unicaja - Valencia Over 156 @2.09





Not sure about those totals. Also I don't know who is injured and who is motivated or not. If you follow my picks, please adjust your numbers and combine with your other information. This is just "stats" part.

Good Luck!
I think you meant Barcelona - Unicaja over 156, not Unicaja - Valencia. Thanks for sharing though.
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Old 17-02-17, 19:04   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by egomax View Post
Thanks for your (very) good job!!!

...in Italy all matches are played in Rimini, each team is "away"
Oh, I didn't know that. That changes a lot. Thanks for the info.
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Old 17-02-17, 19:06   #17
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@egomax - thanks for your comment. Definitely has to be improved. I just made it quickly for my challenge and because it showed some interesting results, I decided to share it here. But who knows maybe I will work on it.

@metelangelo - yes you are right. It is Barca - Unicaja. Thanks for correction. I messed all those names.
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Old 17-02-17, 22:18   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Underdogchance View Post
Friday

San Sebastian -6.5 @1.74 WON
CB Melilla - CB Miraflores Burgos Under 151 @1.89 WON
San Sebastian - Caceres Under 154 @1.83 WON
Barcelona - Unicaja Over 156 @2.09 LOST


3-1, +1.46
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Old 17-02-17, 22:43   #19
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Ok, Let's see what we have today in Argentina and in Korea:


Only play I like:
San Lorenzo -12.5 @1.934 (Pinnacle)

Good Luck!
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Old 18-02-17, 21:49   #20
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San Lorenzo -12.5 Lost (they won by just 10 or 11 points i think)

Here is something from Japan and Korea (Pinnacle odds and offer):


Plays:
Incheon Elephants +1 @2.00
Seoul Thunders / Busan KT Sonicboom Over 162 @1.88
Toyama / Toyota Over 161 @1.943


Good Luck!
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Old 19-02-17, 09:08   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Underdogchance View Post
Incheon Elephants +1 @2.00 LOST
Seoul Thunders / Busan KT Sonicboom Over 162 @1.88 WON
Toyama / Toyota Over 161 @1.943 WON


Good Luck!
2-1, +1.823

A lot of games today... I will do some of them.
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Old 19-02-17, 10:38   #22
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Thank you mate, won some money on Friday! Good work.
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Old 19-02-17, 16:24   #23
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Quote:
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Thank you mate, won some money on Friday! Good work.
Nice to hear that. I will try to give some more projections and plays in next days. Good Luck!
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