Spain La Liga 15/10

[Albier]

Eibar vs Deportivo

I had thought about over 2.5 for a couple of days, but after seeing the Eibar lineup I do not like it at all. Mendilibar goes with 5-3-2 formation to face up Deportivo.

I really do not like the lineup of Eibar with 3CB for an over, it seems like the main objective is to return to the defensive stability and leave a clean sheet. On the other hand, they have left out the squad for today, Inui, technical decision, and Bebe and Ruben Peña, two skillfull players are on the bench. I really expect a very physical match for his part, very stuck in the midfield, with aerial duels, interceptions, faults, and with much direct play to forwards.

Deportivo with Schaar missing, Lucas Perez for this round. Let's say that Schaar is an important miss, but Mel has put Albentosa, CB very high and former player of Eibar, to defend situations of crosses, and to be powerful in the aerial game. My doubt was if it would finally start Arribas start that is a smaller CB and could have problems to defend Enrich and Kike Garcia. They even so, they have more quality in 3/4 field with Cartabia, Colak y Andone to create fast counterattack situations, but expect Eibar today very well positioned in defense line.

Under 2.5 line dropping too much in the last 20 minutes, odds around 1.85-1.90 and they were higher than 2.00 an hour ago. So, I take a shot on under 2.5 before odds will definitely sink themselves. Hard game.

[Albier]

Betis vs Valencia

Interesting match between the two revelation teams in this league start, two coaches with different style, but with good proposals and with very good teams. There has been a break, which could affect the pace of competition, but morally they arrive in very good run.

Betis arrives only with the missing Javi Garcia, a key DM in the latest Betis lineups. For me it is important, he gives a lot of balance to the team in defense /attack, He help in defense and allows Guardado, Fabian and Wings backs to climb to the attack more easily without worrying about going down and defending. Guardado is expected to replace him, we will see if he can give a little more physically to do the work of Garcia, but surely the Betis today will be more vulnerable in this area of midfield, especially at the defensive level. Anyway, Setien goes with his best lineup, they are going to press hard in some moments, and they will have a lot of possession, lately they are with great pass accuracy and Sergio Leon, Tello and Joaquin give a lot of depth and are very fast with spaces, problem is that I think Valencia defense is more convincing and wouldnt be as joke defense of the Royal Sociedad, they will not have it so easy today.

Valencia totally unrecognizable with Marcelino, they are another different team. Organized, intense, well positioned, the players are all motivated, and besides they have young and quality players. They arrive without missing today, and are also expect their best lineup, with youngster Nacho Vidal and Murillo as the only replacement for Montoya /Paulista, but also not very significant because they have rotated regularly. I really like Valencia tonight. They still have some defensive problems, but I think they play better away, without taking so much initiative, looking for more fast passes to Zaza / Rodrigo and taking advantage of spaces with Guedes and Soler, two players with a lot of driving ball.

Betis is this type of team that with its play-attack football and its risks, suits well with this Valencia style. Betis also have a lot of lost balls building game from his defense, and Valencia players are very effective at transforming those losts balls in goals, we already saw against Real Sociedad, they scored three, but they could be several more. Of course, Valencia is not Madrid or Barcelona, but its motivation to stand tonight in 2nd position and to follow the Barcelona race will be great for today. Also the Betis is expected with great energy and pushing hard, Villamarin atmosphere will be great, but in this match where the small details can make the difference, I bet for the moment and the quality of Valencia, I see them slightly superior.

I'm going to take Valencia to win. With moderate stakes. Odds are oscillating between 2.60 and 2.70. Consider it well priced. Over 2.5 and BTTS without value right now. Over 3.5 could be an option, everyone is selling as an attractive match for goals, it is normal because both teams have scored in all matches, but I have my doubts, Marcelino is not the type of coach who likes too conceding many goals,and I think Valencia defense is totally solid to concede no more than one goal. Betis has not been bad in defense at home, except the goal-party against Real, something acceptable for the style of the two teams, but today I see a game more tactical than others, the Betis will have problems to develop their game, so I will not get involved in Over 3.5. It will be a tactically strong game, hard stadium, between two good tactical coaches, but I'll bet on Valencia quality and good moment, totally worth a try those odds for them.

GL!