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Old 14-04-16, 20:48   #31
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adding:
Atlanta Braves (Teheran) +191 (170 Units = 1.41%)
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PINNACLE SPORTS: One of the very best. New website!

Old 15-04-16, 22:18   #32
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FRIDAY - 15/4/2016

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Boston Red Sox (Porcello) -115 (255 Units = 2.16%)
NY Mets (Colon) +104 (400 Units = 3.38%)
White Sox (Sale) -113 (105 Units = 0.89%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
more todays plays to come...
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Old 15-04-16, 22:50   #33
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adding
LA Angels (Richards) -122 (180 Units = 1.52%)
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Old 15-04-16, 23:32   #34
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Detroit Tigers (Pelfrey) +171 (115 Units = 0.97%)

may add more plays today...check this forum later
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Old 15-04-16, 23:51   #35
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This section has an important rule: no more than ONE bump per day.
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Originally Posted by djasmu View Post
if that happens, i will leave forever to better forum
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Old 16-04-16, 01:50   #36
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Last Play today:
Oakland Athletics (Hill) -119 (190 Units = 1.61%)

Good Luck to all!
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Old 16-04-16, 01:55   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by weedy View Post
This section has an important rule: no more than ONE bump per day.
Ok, I didn't know this. Sorry and you can delete my last post.

I want just to make comment about this and why I post every two hours one pick:

My site is free, so it is more to show people how I bet....

In MLB lineups are out 2-3 hours before the game starts and first games usually starts at 19:00 (CET) and the last games starts at 4:00 (CET). The managers give lineups two hours before the games and I was waiting for the last lineups, because my math model calculate every single player and project how he will perform in this game. And it is very important for me and my projected lines who will be in lineup and in which spot.

But understand your rules and will respect it.
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Old 04-05-16, 01:24   #38
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TUESDAY - 3/5/2016

MLB 2016: +3370.95 Units
LAST PICKS: +881.86 Units
MLB 2016 YIELD: +10.83%
Currnet Bankroll (inc. NHL): 14910.20 Units
AVG MLB RISK: 223.91 Units
AVG MLB LINE: +115
MLB PICKS PLAYED: 138

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Boston Red Sox (Wright) +128 (325 Units = 2.18%)
Oakland Athletics (Gray) -116 (200 Units = 1.34%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Pitcher Win% Moneyline Odds

Red Sox Wright 52.05% Boston -109 1.92
White Sox Quintana 47.95% White Sox +109 2.09

Twins Meyer 41.59% Minnesota +140 2.40
Astros McHugh 58.40% Houston -140 1.71

Mariners Iwakuma 42.12% Seattle +137 2.37
Athletics Gray 57.88% Oakland -137 1.73

Angels Tropeano 52.89% LAA -112 1.89
Brewers Guerra 47.11% Milwaukee +112 2.12

Nationals Roark 48.58% Washington +106 2.06
Royals Young 51.42% Kansas -106 1.94

Phillies Nola 43.05% Philadelphia +132 2.32
Cardinals Wacha 56.95% St Louis -132 1.76

Rockies Butler 49.86% Colorado +101 2.01
Padres Cashner 50.14% San Diego -101 1.99
------------
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Old 17-08-16, 17:44   #39
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A lot of new things on my site:

UNDERDOGCHANCE.COM - 100% FREE

1. Free MLB Picks with projected Lines like this:


2. Free NHL Picks with projected Lines (upcoming season 2016/2017)

3. Betting Challenges
List of All betting Challenges for season 2016/2017
  1. September 2016 NFL American Foootball
  2. October 2016 NCAAF American Foootball
  3. November 2016 English Premier League Soccer/ EU Football
  4. December 2016 NBA Basketball (US)
  5. January 2017 Scandinavian Hockey Ice Hockey (EU)
  6. February 2017 Eurobasket Basketball (EU)
  7. March 2017 Spain Primera Soccer/ EU Football
  8. April 2017 German Bundesliga Soccer/ EU Football
  9. May 2017 Serie A Soccer/ EU Football
  10. June 2017 Scandinavian Football Soccer/ EU Football
  11. July 2017 Wimbledon Tennis

4. My Recommended Bookmakers

What is the difference between NHL/MLB Picks and Betting Challenges?
I am specialised on betting NHL and MLB. I have created math models for both leagues and I have a lot of experience betting those two sports.
However, I am in this business for long time and I bet in the past also other sports (some successfully, some not), I also have a lot of contacts and good sources of information. This is why I will challenge myself with other sports too. Every month different challenge and different sport.

MLB/NHL Picks will be daily on my site - 100% FREE!

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Old 27-08-16, 01:59   #40
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My Intro VIDEO
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Old 31-08-16, 00:17   #41
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I think there are a lot of great free information and very good free picks on the internet (including my free site - UNDERDOGCHANCE.COM), but if you still want to pay for picks...here is something that I would ask Sports Betting Services:

10 Questions To Ask When Choosing Paid Sports Betting Advisor

Before we even start, I will say one very important thing. Never spend money on betting service or betting advisor, if you are not willing to lock your money for the longer time of period (at least 1Ė2 years). If you are looking for an advice today and you want to put all your money on a winner today, then you donít need sports betting service. Make your own research, check line movements, read free forums and you will find one good pick, put all in and wait ó maybe you win. The bigger problem is to find someone, who can make profit constantly over a longer period of time.

Pay or not to pay for Sports Betting Advice? The answer is a little bit more complex and I will take little bit more time to explain this in another article. Here we will focus on paid betting services and I will look at this if I am the one, who want to pay for advice. There are a lot of Sports Betting Services on the internet and everybody promise profit. So, how to decide which one is good, how to decide which one is for you? Here are 10 questions, you should ask before you decide. If they donít have an answer on any of my questions, I would not pick that service.

Did they show me their record for at least last 3 years?


I would never pay for the service, which says something like: ďwe are on amazing run 32Ė14 in last 46 picksĒ. Thatís bullshit. Everyone can have 32Ė14 run and everyone can have 14Ė32 run. Show me your detailed record for the last 3 years. Send me the file with detailed picks, risks and other info, so I can make deeper research. This is the first question and if they are professionals, who sell their picks, then this will not be a problem. Always focus on the bigger picture. Everyone can have one month or even a year negative, but if you decide to invest, then you should see the bigger picture.

2. Did they show me their yield and ROI, profitability?

Many sports betting services will show you just profit and many of them will show only short period record. Thatís red alert. Go away. Why? First of all, profit doesnít tell anything. What if someone plays 100 games and he lost 70 of them. 99 games he played with 1 unit and one game he played with 100 units. This is just one example. You want to see how good they are and if it is worth to pay for those picks. Read more about Yield, ROI and Profitability here.

3. What kind of sports they bet and what type of bets they play?

I saw on contests and other sites, that some handicappers made a lot of profit betting some sports, that are not that popular and because of that market is a small. Itís nice to someone, who made a great profit in net units on Italian volleyball League. But in reality, can you play those games? Do you even have the chance to play those games on your bookmaker? Will you ever place a bet for the same price? Because if this is a small market and if that advisor or service send picks out, odds will probably drop quickly. If you ask me, I would focus on main sports with huge betting market. As I said, itís nice, that someone makes a profit on Handball, but can you follow him? Donít forget, that we are talking about betting services, which you have to pay. The second question in the same topic is what type of bets. If they play always live betting or if they play always some special bets, it wonít be possible to follow them. The best bet types are again, moneyline, totals, 1-x-2, spread, AH,Öagain bet types, which are popular and you have a real chance to play those bets on your bookmaker and for the similar price.

4. Which bookmakers do they use?

I would ask them, what kind of bookmakers they use. If they always show great odds and they use some local bookmaker, then this will not help you. Professional sports handicappers will always use one of the top online bookmakers if we talk about online sports betting. There are a lot of reasons, why professionals use top bookmakers. Here is the list of my recommended bookmakers.

5. When they release their picks and how many times per day?

There are sites, which provide 20 picks per day with a couple of different sports handicappers. You can not follow them unless you sit whole day in front of computer. But if you sit in front of a computer, then you donít need to pay for the picks. Do the job and research games on your own. So, what i would like to see from betting service is that they send me picks once or max twice per day. Get email, bet and do your stuff. You donít want to wait and bet every 40 minutes. You should also ask them when they release their picks. If they release their picks at 2 in the morning and the games starts at 6 in the morning, can you follow them? I donít think so.

6. Do they use advanced statistics and math models

This would be one of the most important questions for me. Do they use models, do they use advanced statistics. How they find value? Because if you follow one handicapper, who just reads a lot, I donít think you should pay him. You can do this on your own. But statistics, math models, predictive models will make the difference in the long run. Why do you think all successful business use predictive models? Do you think, that one huge and the serious financial group will make their decisions based only on some information, that are available for everyone? Someone will say, he has some great information about fixed games, etcÖCome on guysÖFixed games and stuff like this is cheating. Even if someone fixes games, do you think they will tell you? And even if they do, they are cheaters. They cheat sports, they cheat people and I believe, you donít want to give your money to those people. Hard work, knowledge, statistics, experience,Öthis is something that will make your money on the long run.

7. What did they promise me?

ďWe will make you richĒ, ďWe hit 96% of gamesĒ,Ö come on guysÖ98% of all people lose all the time. Nobody will make you rich overnight. Nobody! If they have such a information, they donít ned to sell their picks. If you have 1 million on your account, you donít need to sell picks for 50, 100 or even 1000 EUR. The best sports handicappers, who are fair and good, will always say you, that you should take an investment approach. The best handicappers will hit only 53Ė55% of their bets if we are talking about some spread betting, like NBA, NFL. Win % is different by odds (bigger with lower odds and lower with higher odds). They will show their real numbers from the past and they say some realistic numbers, you can expect from them.

8. What is their money management / investment strategy?

They must show you exactly what is the starting bankroll, when was set and exactly what % of bankroll they bet on each game. What are 50 units? What is 5 star play? What is 1 unit? Without very good explanation, information about those units are nothing. They must explain you. If they say play 2% of your bankroll, is this from starting bankroll or from current bankroll. If they use anything similar to martingale, just run away. I would pay for the service, which has strong and safe money strategy.

9. How many subscribers they have?

This is a tricky question, which I would ask them for sure. On one side, they will tell you that they have a lot of subscribers. With that, they want to say you, that they are good, that people trust them. But then ask yourself, if they have so many subscribers, will I get picks for the same price? No. Because if I send one pick out for example to 1000 subscribers and everyone will bet 100 EUR, do you think, that you will get the same price? No. Bookmakers will drop odds and you will get 1.95 instead of 2.05. And this is huge. if you win 50% of games with the odds of 2.05, you will have profit, if you hit 50% of the same bets for the odds of 1.95, you will have a loss.

10. How do you charge your services and how much?

when we talk about profit, yield, ROI, then you should take into account, that you will pay for the picks. If you pay one service 100 EUR per month and if they make 10 units per month and if your unit is 10 EUR (with starting bankroll of 1000EUR), do you think, that you will make a profit? No! 10 units of profit * 10 EUR = 100EUR. Minus cost of the service = 0 profit. You should always take into account what is you budget, what will be your unit and if you will ever make a profit, after they tell you exactly how much money you should bet on each game. I saw people, who have 1000 EUR on their bookmaker account and they are willing to pay 50 EUR for sports betting service. Itís insane. I would pay only if I have 10.000 EUR on my bank account and not more than 300Ė400 EUR per year. If they make 40 units in one year (letís say 4.000 EUR), I would pay only 10% of my profit to them. Sometimes even this is too much. Based on current costs of sports betting services online, you should not pay a single penny for an advice until you have at least 10.000 EUR on your bookmaker account.

Some words to you, who decided to find betting service and you are willing to pay for the picksÖ.

You should understand that this is sports betting. It is speculative business and anything can happen. Deal with it!
Nobody can make yo rich overnight and nobody will win all games. Deal with it!
What are you paying is an advice. Some people spend hours and hours to make winning picks. You pay their work, so you have bigger chances to win. Nobody can guarantee you for sure, that he will have a profitable season. Deal with it!
Most of the people who pay for betting advice donít have a big bankroll. And because of that and because of the cost of the service, they bet with 15%, 20%, 30% per bet. They will be disappointed at the end. You should never ever bet more than 5% on any game. And 5% is the biggest play, which can happen rarely. Most of the bets should be around 1Ė2% or even less. If you will bet more than that, you will lose and please donít blame sports betting services. Deal with it!
You should also understand the basics of sports betting. What are odds, what is probability, what is bookmaker and so on? The difference between sports betting investment and another type of investments is that you donít give money to your betting advisor. They just suggest you, what you should play and how much money you should play. Everything else is on you. This is why is crucial to have some basic knowledge about sports betting. If you donít find the time to learn sports betting basics, you will lose. Deal with it!
Never blame sports handicapper service if team A has lost the game. Betting services didnít play that game. Players played the game and they lost the game. There is so many factors, that can happen in one game. If you donít understand this, then you donít understand simple basics and it is very likely, that you will lose a lot of money in sports betting. Once someone posted one free pick and the next day one guy was angry, that he lost money on that pick. Sports betting services are not prophets, but advisors. They just tell you what you should play with the offered odds. You can not blame them for short period results. Deal with it!
My personal opinion about paid betting services.

I donít sell picks and I am not betting advisor. Letís be clear about that from the start. I bet for myself, I love what I do and I love to play with statistics, data and numbers. Iíve created my math models for NHL and MLB. This is something I do every day and I want to help people with quality betting advice. I also challenge myself in other sports, to see if I can make a profit. You will see a lot of people, who are against those paid sports betting services and you will see betting services, who will tell, you that you should pay their picks. I am on both sides. Both are right.

Betting services will spend extra hours and they will do the dirty job. At the same time, you will do nothing and you just want to pick their advice for free, this is also not fair. Sometimes, I see ďheroesĒ who took free advice and then they are rude / angry if they lost. Show some respect, because someone else made extra work, while you were sleeping. This is why I think that good and hard work should be paid. They will research games for you, they will give you an advice and I donít have anything against that. The problem is that there are too many very bad betting services, who can not answer those 10 questions above. But of course, there is small number of very good betting advisors out there, who will give you quality advice for a reasonable price.

But, I will also tell you, that unless you have a big budget, you donít need to pay for the advice. You can find so many good free information and good picks on the net, that this is amazing. There are a lot of free advisors, who will give you quality advice. Most of them do this for fun. I think if you start betting, you should follow those free sports handicappers and you can make nice profit too. The only problem with free advisors is that they donít owe you anything. They can disappear when they want and then you are at the beginning.

Should you pay for the picks? Depends on your situation. But if you decide to pay for the picks, ask them those 10 questions, believe me, you will have better chance to find really good betting service / sports handicapper.

Underdogchance.com ó A Journey into the mind of a successful sports bettor.

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Old 31-08-16, 11:57   #42
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VISIT MY SITE (Picks are 100% Free) underdogchance.com

Tampa Bay Rays (Smyly) @ Boston Red Sox (Wright)
Pick: Tampa Bay (Rays) @2.57


Tampa Bay won yesterday in Boston, but I think they will have another chance today as well.
My predictive model still gives more chance to Boston (53.2%) and projected odds on Tampa Bay are @2.14 (+114). But with the odds of 2.57 we have a value play on Tampa.
Drew Smyly has some great numbers against Boston Red Sox. He beat them in April, when he struck 11 batters in Fenway Park. He is 2-1 against them and his team record is 4-3, when he was on the mound against Boston. In last 3 games versus Boston (2015, 2016) he struck out 29 batters in 20 innings, which is pretty amazing if we know, that Boston is one of the best hitting teams in MLB.
Wright on other side didn't pitch against Tampa yet, which is advantage for him, but he didn't look good in last game. He walked 3 hitters, struck out only 1 and allowed 5 runs, 2 home runs, 7 hits in 6 innings against Kansas.
Boston is better team, no doubt, but I think we will have some pitching advantage here and 2.57 is too high on Tampa. Tampa can beat Boston again. One interesting thing here. Tampa Bay is 5-0 in last 5 games during 3rd game of the series, Boston is just 2-9 in last 11 during 3rd game of the series. And guess what...this is 3rd game of the series.

My whole card:
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Old 02-09-16, 08:12   #43
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Check my Youtube channel, where i post daily picks with comments about MLB games:
VIDEO PICKS

Nice win with Minnesota yesterday...



Cincinnati Reds (Desclafani) @ St Louis Cardinals (Reyes)
Pick: Cincinnati @2.09

Desclafani is pitching pretty good right now. In last couple of games his ERA is 2.45 and what is even better, his strike out rate is high. He struck out 21 batters in last 22 innings. In last game he went 9 innings and struck out 9 hitters. The guy is pretty hot. On other side Reyes pitched only 4 innings this season and had 4 walks. We still havr to wait what will be with him, but this is pretty big rivalry between those two teams and i am going with better pitcher. Both offenses are struggling lately. St Louis 3.4 runs/game in last 7 , Cincinnati 3.9 runs/ game in last 7 games. Pitching will be key in this one.
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Old 03-09-16, 21:33   #44
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VIDEO PICKS - 3/9/2016
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Old 04-09-16, 17:06   #45
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Sunday MLB Picks
http://underdogchance.com/mlb-picks/
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Old 06-09-16, 15:26   #46
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Tuesday VIDEO PICKS with my comments - 6.9.2016
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Old 07-09-16, 14:42   #47
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UNDERDOGCHANCE.COM
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Old 08-09-16, 13:27   #48
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YESTERDAY: 3-2, +7.18 Units (with avg 2.4 Unit per game)
JOIN ME - IT's FREE - UNDERDOGCHANCE.COM



My 5 Important Criteria When Choosing an Online Bookmaker

We all need bookmakers, because without them we can not bet. But picking the right online bookmaker is not easy. How would I pick bookmaker if I start today? This is my personal criteria, how would I pick bookmaker.

#1 Most Important: Getting Paid When I Win
Do you know, that there are a lot of bookmakers, who will not pay you if you win? It is unacceptable, but this is our reality. There are a lot of people, who beat bookmakers and they didnít get their money. This is most important thing for me. If I win, I want that they pay me. No matter, if I stop betting today, they must clear my account and pay me everything. Great bonuses, good odds, variety of bets and other things are not important if they donít pay you after you win. This is why I am very careful, when I pick bookmaker for myself. I donít need flashy sites, I donít need huge bonuses, I donít need special bets, I donít need Casino ó I want to be sure, that they will pay me. This is the most important thing. After that we can talk about other things. Here is my list of verified bookmakers.

#2 Second Most Important: Limits and Max Wager
Limits and Max Wager are two different things. Do you know, that a lot of bookmakers will limit you, if you start winning? I will say it again: It is unacceptable, but this is our reality. For example, if you start winning and your bets are bigger and bigger, they will just limit you and I know stories from people, who couldnít bet more than $50, after they started winning. I donít want to be in this situation. The second thing is max wager. We all believe, that we will start winning and our bets will be bigger and bigger. If you are small bettor, than you probably donít care about max wager, but if you win more and more and you bankroll grows, you will need bookmakers, which will allow you to bet high stakes.

#3 Third Most Important: Payouts
After I find bookmaker, which will pay me and allow me to bet, I would start looking who has the best odds. 90% of people still donít understand how important this is. When we bet, we pay something. And the odds are prizes. You can pay for the same thing $110 or you can pay for the same thing $105. What will you do? Would you pay for the same car $500 more? Of curse not. So, why you pay more if you can pay less with good bookmaker? If we take an example of one game. The game is the same for everyone. No matter where you bet, the game and the result of the game is the same for us. But the price is not the same. Because some bookmakers will have better odds and some will have worse odds and you will pay more. So, what is margin? The easiest way to understand margins is this: We have two teams and letís say, that there is only 2 possible outcomes (win ó loss). And letís say, that they have exactly the same chances to win this game (probability 50% ó 50%). So, fair odds would be 2.00 vs 2.00 (Us players +100 vs +100). But they never give us this price. Instead of 2.00 vs 2.00 (+100 vs +100), they will offer something like 1.95 vs 1.95 (-105 vs -105). And those 5 cents are margins and this is what you have to pay more. In reality, if you get 1.95 vs 1.95 is very good. Most bookmakers are not that generous. I would definitely look for bookmakers with reduced juice, low margins, bigger payouts or better odds if you want. When you start betting big money, then you see how important is every single line. If you bet small money on odds of 2.00 or 2.05, you will not see big difference, but if you bet $10.000 on the same odds, then this is $500 of difference.

#4 Fourth Most Important: Good Customer Service
There will always be something with money, with odds, with payments,Öand you will need customer service for sure. Always when it comes to our money, we donít want to wait. I like live chat, so if I have any question, I like that they give the answer as soon as possible. We trust our money to some site and I hate if they donít answer. Every bookmaker will have some customer service, mostly by email, phone or live chat. I prefer live chat.

#5 Fifth Most Important: Quick and Easy Funding
Most bookmakers will have couple of deposit and withdrawal options and I donít want to wait too long for my money. This is important especially when they must pay you. Most bookmakers will have quick deposit methods, but when they must pay you, it can take a little bit longer. I know some stories, that people have waited for 1 or even 2 months to get their money. This is not acceptable.

Underdogchance.com ó A Journey Into The World Of Successful Sports Handicappers
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Old 12-09-16, 22:06   #49
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Old 15-09-16, 13:49   #50
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UNDERDOGCHANCE.COM
Since my first PICKS VIDEO: +21 Units, Yield: +9.37%



White Sox vs Cleveland
Pick: White Sox (Shields) @2.43


James Shields lost last game against Indians, but what I like about this game is that he has some very good numbers against Cleveland hitters. Indians hitters have only 34 hits in 160 at bats against him. Cris, Chisenhall and Davis struggled against him the most. I know he lost last game agaisnt Indians, but he will face Clevinger, who is not playing well on the road. His ERA in 3 games on the road is 6.91 and in his only game this season against White Sox he allowed 6 runs in 5 innings. Shields can also eat more innings. White Sox lost yesterday agianst Indians, but they are a good home team, this is in fact the only place, where they play some good baseball. Their home record is 40-32 and they are 5-2 in last 7 games with 5.7 runs/game. Indians are 36-36 on the road and they lost 4 of last 5 games versus teams, who have winning home record. I have projected White Sox at 1.95.

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Old 22-09-16, 22:58   #51
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Game: LA Angels (Nolasco) @ Houston Astros (Fiers)

Pick: LA Angels @2.50


Houston Astros did a good job on the road at Oakland, but they are going home right now and will face LA Angels, who just beat Texas yesterday and who have good numbers against Houston pitcher today. LA Angels have 6 home runs and batting average of 0.317 against Fiers in 87 at bats, which is good. Fiers also didn't show the best performance in last games, because he walked 5 and struck out 8 in last 13 innings. Especially in the last home game, where he faced Cubs, he allowed 7 runs in just 2 innings. Nolasco on other side is red hot. In last 3 starts his ERA is 3.32, whip of 0.947 and he struck out 15 batters. Houston has good numbers against Angels in the past, but those are two teams, that are playing better on the road. Houston score 4.1 runs at home (on the road much more) and LA Angels score 4.6 runs per game on the road (at home less). The line movement is also on my side, because close to 70% of the people are on Houston, but the lines dropped from 1.6 to 1.5 or even 1.4 on some bookmakers.
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Old 24-09-16, 17:35   #52
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MLB Free Play: St Louis (Reyes) @2.15
Yesterday: 4-1, +5.66
Video Picks: 88-87, +35.22 Units, Yield: +11.49%
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Old 26-09-16, 17:35   #53
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White Sox (Shields) vs Tampa Bay (Smyly)
Pick: White Sox (Shields) @2.11 Pinnacle


Both teams are already out of playoffs, but White Sox are very good home team. In fact they are #6 best home team in MLB with the record 41-33. They are also very good against left handed pitchers with the record of 18-17 and they score much more against left-handed pitchers (4.8). Tampa Bay on other side is a bad road team with the record of 29-45 and they are #26 ranked road team. Tampa will start with Smyly, left-handed pitcher, who struggled little bit with on the road with ERA of 5.44 and what is even more interesting he allowed 16 home runs in 15 road games, which is more than 1 home run on the road per game. Shields on other side will start for White Sox and we all know, that he is former TB player and he has record of 2-0 against his former team. My math model has Tampa at 1.84, while bookmakers have them as underdog. Play White Sox
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Old 27-09-16, 13:55   #54
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Tuesday MLB - 27.9.2016

MLB Video Picks Record(188 MLB Baseball Picks):
Profit: +38.27 Units
Yield: +11.44%
Today's video

MLB Betting Prediction: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
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Old 01-10-16, 19:40   #55
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Saturday, 1.10.2016
NY Yankees vs Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore (Miley) @1.87 10Bet


Baltimore Orioles are fighting for playoffs and they need a win. The good thing is that they are red hot right now, because they won 6 of last 7 games. Orioles will start with Miley and we have with them pitching advantage. Miley ahs been pitching better right now and in last game he struck out 11 batters against the team, which is very good versus LHP (Arizona). Today he will face Yankees, who hav negative record versus lefties and score 4.0 runs per game against them. Yankees on other side will start with Severino, who is awful and I don't understand, why the odds are close to 1.90. Severino has record of 0-8 and he will face a team, which is one of the best versus right handed pitchers. Note also, that Baltimore will be highly motivated.
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Old 04-10-16, 20:07   #56
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Baltimore @ Toronto
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays (Stroman)


Predictive Model:

Bookmakers give Toronto around 58% of chance to win this game and with that the odds of around 1.72. My predictive model gives Toronto little bit more chance to win in this one Ė around 61% and with that odds of around 1.64 and small value on Blue Jays.

Match Up
The winner is going to playoffs, the other team is going home and this is most important game for both teams this seaosn, no doubt. Toronto will start with Marcus Stroman, who has negative record, but his pitching is not that bad and I rank him even higher than Chris Tillman on other side. But what is interesting here is that both pitchers have some bad numbers agianst todayís hitters. Letís take a look:

Batter vs AB H XBH HR RBI BB K AVG
Chris Davis Marcus Stroman 10 4 0 0 2 0 2 0.4
Ryan Flaherty Marcus Stroman 11 3 2 1 4 0 3 0.273
Adam Jones Marcus Stroman 15 6 0 0 2 1 1 0.4
Mark Trumbo Marcus Stroman 11 5 2 0 0 1 2 0.455
Matt Wieters Marcus Stroman 12 5 3 2 6 0 1 0.417
Jose Bautista Chris Tillman 45 12 7 3 7 8 11 0.267
Ezequiel Carrera Chris Tillman 10 3 1 1 3 0 1 0.3
Edwin Encarnacion Chris Tillman 58 17 6 3 5 4 7 0.293
Russell Martin Chris Tillman 14 6 3 0 1 7 2 0.429
Kevin Pillar Chris Tillman 23 8 4 3 6 0 4 0.348
Michael Saunders Chris Tillman 21 6 3 2 3 2 3 0.286
Troy Tulowitzki Chris Tillman 10 4 3 2 3 0 1 0.4
Melvin Upton Jr. Chris Tillman 14 3 2 1 2 3 1 0.214
Couple of Orioles hitters have some good numbers against Stroman, but when it comes to Tillman, the situation is even more concerning. Torontoís hitters hit him hard in the past. Bautista, Encarnacion and Pillar they all have 3 home runs against him. His numbers against Toronto in Toronto are very bad: 2-6 and ERA 7.01. He played well this season against him, but still Baltimore has bad record in Toronto. They won only 25 games out of last 81 in played in Toronto. I also rank Toronto bullpen higher, but this game will be special and I believe some other starters, like Ubaldo Jimenez will jump in if needed. Toronto starters have one of the best ERA in MLB. They have 4th best ERA overall this season, while Orioles starters are ranked #24.

Reason for pick:
I like playing dogs, especially in playoffs, but I think Toronto is the right play, because of couple of things. Toronto has some good success at home versus Baltimore or if I can say, Baltimore usually struggle in Toronto. Baltimore is also not very good road team. Their record on the road is 39-42, which is not even positive. You may say, this is very important game. Yes it is, but very important games, were all games last two weeks and they still lost that very important game versus Yankees. And they will have on other side a team, who will play at home, where have positive record (46-35) and they won 56 games in last 81 meetings at home. My numbers rank Stroman higher and I donít use only ERA, which is not very good predictive numbers, but couple of other important data. I also rank Toronto pitching stuff higher than Orioles. When we put togheter all those numbers togheter, home team advantage I think we have a small play on Toronto.

Play Toronto Blue Jays
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Old 05-10-16, 13:10   #57
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SF Giants @ NY Mets
Pick: NY Mets @2.01


My Projected Line:

The odds are dropping on San Francisco Giants and the Mets are underdog right now. At some bookmakers, Mets are already (@2.01) +101 underdog and with that Bookmakers give the Mets and the Giants around 50-50 chance to win this game. My predictive model has the Mets at 60% and the odds of 1.67. This is the price, which I expect from the bookmakers or higher of curse. They give me the Mets for 2.00 and there is a value. My predictive model suggest me to take the Mets for 2.81 Units, I adjust it to 2.5 Units. One unit is for me 1% of my current bankroll.

Info about match:

It's a wild card game between the Mets and Giants, the same like yesterday between Blue Jays and the Orioles, when we hit another winner with Blue Jays. The winner is going to playoffs and will play the Cubs, so this is very important match for both teams. They will use all kind of weapons to reach playoffs.

Pitching:

We will have two very good pitchers on the mound. Bumgarner is my favourite pitcher, he is mentally very strong and as we all know, he is really strong in postseason with the record of 7-3, ERA 2.14. He is also 2 time World Series MVP. With his coaching stuff and smart plays, they are the real deal in postseason and Giants are one of those teams, which will play much better when they need to - especially in postseason. However, we will also have very good pitcher on other side and my numbers rank Syndergaard this season little bit higher than Bumgarner. He is also well rested with 7 days of rest and some pitchers could struggle, when they have more rest, but he is 5-1 in that situation in his last 5 games, so I don't think this will be an issue. Giants beat him in last game with baserunning but I believe, the Mets will prepare for this today. Both pitchers have very good success against opponent hitters and this will be low scoring tactical game, where bullpen could play a big role later in the game. I believe, both pitchers will show their best stuff, but what I like here about the Mets is that I rank them higher. I have them 5th best in the league, while Giants only 15th. This is my ranking.

Offense:

Mets score 4.1 runs per game this season with batting average of 0.246, but they play little bit better against left-handed pitchers, which Bumgarner is. I have them 7th best in the league against left-handed pitchers and they score 4.3 runs per game against them with BA of 0.258. They also have positive record versus LHP (19-18), they have positive home record (44-37) and they are playing much better in last month than Giants. Their September record is 17-10, while Giants 13-15. In last 7 games, before playoffs, they scored 7 runs per game and their offense is red hot in most important time of year. Giants on other side took all wins, they needed agaisnt strong Dodgers and they score 5.9 runs per game in lat 7 games. Giants were 42-39 on the road this season, but when they played against good home teams (home winning record), they won only 14 games out of last 51. They also lost 4 of last 5 games with Bumgarner, when he faced winning team on the road.

Reason for pick:

Mets are in playoffs again, they were there last year with less experience, but I think this is the time, when they will step up. They have very good pitcher on the mound, they have better bullpen based on my numbers and they are playing good baseball lately. I like to see teams playing well in September, when the playoffs starts, because momentum is very important. They know each other and I believe, this will be low scoring tactical game. I don't like to go against Bochy and Bumgarner in postseason, but my predictive model gives me more confidence to take the Mets here. Don't forget home field advantage.

Play NY Mets @2.01
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Old 06-10-16, 11:36   #58
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BOSTON RED SOX @ CLEVELAND INDIANS
PICK: CLEVELAND +132


Odds
Odds are dropping on Red Sox but it is also, that more people are baking Boston in this one. You can find odds of 2.32 or +132 on Cleveland and so they give cca 43% of chance for Cleveland in this one. My predictive model still gives little bit better chances to Cleveland in this one. I have projected Cleveland at 47% and my expected odds on them would be cca 2.11 or +111. Based on my numbers, I have small value on Cleveland.

Match Up
This is the first game of the series between Cleveland and Boston Red Sox and they are playing in Cleveland where Indians are dominating whole season. They have the best home record at home in 2016 (53-28), where they score 5.6 runs per game with batting average of 0.287, OBP 0.359 and they hold opponents at 4.3 runs per game. They also played well against the Red Sox in last couple of meeting at home they beat them in 7 out of 9 games. Indians will start with Bauer, who was beaten by Red Sox this season and also last season, but both games were at Fenway Park and he is better at home this season and I want to see him here now. At home he has record of 6-4 with 88 strike outs in 101 innings. Porcello will start on other side for Red Sox and he has been really good this season with ERA of 3.15 and amazing record of 22-4. Both bullpens are good and I have Indians bullpen little bit better. When it comes to an offense, Indians score 5.6 runs per game, where they were dominating. On other side Boston score 5.4 runs per game trough the season, but little bit less on the road, where they score 5.0 runs per game.

Reasons why I like Indians here?
First of all, Indians are very good home team and they are 7-2 against Boston at home in last 9 games. Bauer will start for them, who was beaten twice against Boston in his career, but both games were in Boston. At home he was good this season with 6-4 record and Indians won 6 of last 7 home games with Bauer on the mound and they are 8-3 in his last 11 starts. Boston hitters have 41 at bats against him and 2 home runs (Ortiz, Betts). Indians on other side saw Porcello more times (202 at bats) which is always better and couple Indians have some success against him. Perez, Kipnis, Napoli, Gomes, Davis, they all have BA over 0.300 against todayís Boston hitter. Santana has 3 home runs against him and they know what to expect. I like Indians, the best home MLB team this season as a home underdog against a pitcher, who lost last game in Cleveland and hitters saw him a lot of times and many of them have success against him. I have projected them at 2.1 (+110) in this one and with 2.32 (+132) I have a small value. They score 5.6 runs per game at home, which is more than Boston on the road (5.0). Public is on Red Sox side, but I am not that sure about that. I will go with the home underdog here. It's time for first underdog in playoffs!

Good Luck!
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Old 07-10-16, 12:29   #59
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TORONTO BLUE JAYS (J.A. Happ) @ TEXAS RANGERS (Darvish)
Pick: Texas Rangers (Darvish) @1.81 3units

VIDEO with MY Comments: 7.10.2016

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Old 13-10-16, 22:22   #60
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