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Old 19-06-05, 23:36   #31
lucky one
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Great job on this forum guys! Thank you for all the picks here, doesn't matter won or lost

I have question this time, not sur, if I can write it here, but I try anyway - about bullpens. What do you know about them? What's important for bullpens when betting, why are they "bullpens" and what's so special on them?

Another question - do the pitchers know the hot and cold zones of hitters? Are these zones somehow important?


Thank you all in advance for posting replies.

GL to all!
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Old 21-06-05, 04:53   #32
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Many bettors ignore bullpens when betting outcomes mainly because they can be such an unknown quantity. They usually get more attention when figuring the total, but many just prefer to ignore them.

Bullpens are special because the starting pitcher generally does pitch the entire game. Many lack the strength to make it beyond the 7th inning (or even 5 innings if they are having a bad outing). The bullpen is a selection of pitchers that can be used to relieve the starting pitcher. Bullpen pitchers are not starters for various reasons - generally because they aren't very good at starting, or as time goes on they no longer have the endurance to last more than a few innings. In your youth up through college and even the minor leagues, pitchers almost never start out in the bullpen - it's rare that a person is relegated to the bullpen immediately. To some, it's a demotion.

Anyway, obviously the pitching ability of the bullpen becomes an important factor in a game. What you won't know before the game is when the bullpen will be used, who will be used, for how long, and for what situation. You can make pretty good, educated guesses, and if the game is close, you can bet on a team using its closer in the last inning (Rivera for the Yankees for instance in the 9th, with Tom Gordon as the "setup man" in the 8th).

Since you have no idea who they will use it is somewhat difficult to figure how a bullpen will influence the game, if at all. It's one of those things that nearly makes baseball unique (though substitutions in soccer can be very important as well) and it can be very hard to predict.

If you're looking at a matchup, one thing to consider is: the average innings the starting pitcher pitches - and his recent performances (against other teams and against the opposing team). Now look at the bullpen, its average ERA, and so forth. If it's really high, or has pitched a lot recently, you can count that against the team. If you know the closer is prone to blowing saves or has just blown one or two, that can also be a tip in your hat. High bullpen ERAs really lends itself to Totals, where the contribution to the Over is much more obvious.

For instance, before tonight Arizona's bullpen ERA was 6.37; in other words, if the bullpen pitched an average of three innings a game it gave up on average two runs per game. That's awful. The bullpen is also 8-11 and has blown 9 out of 31 saves - there's really bad as well. If a bullpen is that bad, both the over and the possibility of a loss should be factored in to your equation. How a bullpen performs on the road versus at home is also important (Arizona's inexpicably is worse at home).

Again, how much you factor this in is really a personal thing and you shouldn't be betting on bullpen analysis alone.

As for "hot" and "cold" zones I'm assuming you're referring to where a batter likes to hit, rather than the invisible strike zone, which expands or contracts on the umpire's whim, not the batter.

Pitching staffs, catchers, and pitchers themselves are supposed to do the legwork on research before every series about who they will face, where they like to hit, and so forth. They may review tape of their previous encounters with that batter if possible. If it's a brand new hitter, they'll scramble around to see if they can find anything. A lot of it is statistics based, and baseball is nearly unique as well in that managers will use statistical matchups a lot. Some depend on them.

So pitchers are supposed to know what and where to throw to a batter most of the time. Of course, it's a lot of information, so a pitcher may forget, or his location may be bad, he may not have command of the pitch, and more importantly, the catcher may call the wrong pitch.

Edit: To further the Arizona example, Arizona's bullpen just gave up 4 runs in the 7th inning, albeit all by one pitcher.
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Old 21-06-05, 05:07   #33
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Follow-up on andysaint's question, the two leagues exist mainly because they were born out of a variety of different leagues with different owners that wanted to do their own thing before they decided to come a two-league system (for a variety of reasons). It used to be that the teams in the two leagues would never meet, except in the World Series, when the best of both leagues rose to the top.

In these two essentially equal leagues (except for some rules - the DH wasn't even introduced until late, and the National League is sometimes referred to as the "Senior Circuit") used to be two equal divisions of seven teams each, the East and West. With teams being added on, the two divisions got pretty unruly - and as you can imagine it was insanely hard to get to the playoffs, because only the top team would go. So to create more playoff games and pacify some mid-range teams (not to mention the expansion teams), the leagues were split three ways instead. No, the geography of the divisions versus where the teams are still don't make a lot of sense but there you go.

The schedules also used to be fairly balanced, but with the league splits and interleague play established, the schedules are fairly unbalanced, with inter-division plays getting nearly double the number of games they used to get.

As for a "serie B" for example, yes it does exist - in baseball, it's called the Minor Leagues. Minor League teams exist as affiliates of the major league teams and there are four different levels: AAA, AA, A and rookie league (AAA is the highest). In essence, these are all developmental leagues, used by teams to bring up players from the high school and college ranks slowly but surely (they are also called farms). Older players or those that teams don't really care to have in the majors also play on these teams, so there are quite a few characters and odd situations. Players that are recovering from injuries or just currently suck are also sent to minor league teams (usually AAA). Some of the more famous baseball movies deal with the minors (Bull Durham for instance).

And if you want to bet on them... well the only place I've ever seen that offers minor league games is Betandwin.com, and they offer some - not all - of the AAA teams, usually the more well known ones (like the Durham Bulls or Toledo Mudhens). I have no idea how they figure their odds and the selection seems varied from night to night. The Minors also end their season around the August-September timeframe (when the major league teams expand their rosters).
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Old 22-06-05, 13:02   #34
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what is WHIP?
... its something to do with pitchers stats?
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Old 22-06-05, 16:32   #35
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WHIP has been used continually - first by fantasy players and somewhat by scouts, now by a lot of folks - to evaluate how a pitcher is performing:

WHIP is (Walks + Hits) per Innings Pitched

or simply, how many non-error baserunners are allowed on base per inning by a pitcher. Obviously a lower WHIP is good, 1.3 and under is nice.. when you get up to 1.8-2.0 that's a cause for problems. When you're evaluating pitchers, it's useful to examine this stat along with the ERA, because either can fool you at first glance. For instance, a pitcher with a high WHIP and low ERA in general is probably a bit overvalued.
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Old 12-07-05, 12:42   #36
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hi there mates,

can anybody explain me, how does the umpire calls a foul..

I mean, although the pitcher throws in the correct area , the umpire decides it's a foul ..

but how come ?

thank you in advance

edit : I found the necessary info in below web page.. anyway, good luck to everyone

http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionar...+statistics%29
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Old 12-07-05, 14:50   #37
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Hi guys,

What is a 'decision'? I saw last week sometime, Roger Clemens won the game, but didn't get the 'decision'?

And also, why/how do Pinchhitters exist?
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Old 12-07-05, 23:49   #38
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Hi mecurial..

Decision is whether he gets a win or a loss. If he leave with the lead, he can get a win, if the bullpen does not lose the lead. If the score at point after the pitcher have left the game is tied, the pitcher CAN'T receive a win.

An example with Clemens ;-)

Astros leads 2-1 after 8 innings, and clemens have pitched 8 innings. for the 9th inning, astros put in a bullpen pitcher, who gives up 1 run to the opponent, and the score is therefore tied at 2. Then astros scores a 3rd run in the ninth. Then clemens won't win the game, but actually the relieve pitcher who have up the 1 run, as he was the last pitcher to pitch in the game for the winning team, before the game was decided.

Still it was in Clemens start they won, but he did not receive a decision. A pitcher could theoretically be 0-0 for the year, but his team having won all of his 35 starts. I hope you understand this.

A pinchitter is used if you have a weak hitter (mostly in the NL, where the pitcher is replaced by a pinchhitter), and is getting replaced by a better hitter. It could be that the before mentioned Clemens is replaced in the 7th inning by Berkman, who are coming of the bench, to take his at bat.

A player who have been replaced by a pinchitter, CAN NOT enter the game again.

Hope you understand, if not feel free to ask further
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Old 13-07-05, 01:43   #39
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Thanks, I understand that.
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Old 25-07-05, 17:54   #40
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Olsen is pretty much correct; a decision (that is, a decision for a win) is given when the pitcher's role is determined in the win or the loss, though the criteria for loss is less strict than a win (a starting pitcher has to pitch five innings to be considered for a win, but doesn't have to get a single out to be considered for a loss).

A slightly more comprehensive but complex way of looking at getting a decision is something like this:

If the team with the lead allows the opposing team to tie or gain a lead then the current pitcher or any previous pitcher in the game will not earn a decision. If the team gains a lead, their current pitcher will earn the right for the decision, unless that team then gives up the lead.

The exception being the starting pitcher-5 inning rule; if the starting pitcher doesn't go five innings, the next pitcher would automatically qualify for the decision unless the lead was given up.

Pinch-hitting is initially used to replace the current batter with someone else (pinch-running allows the replacement of a current runner on base with someone else, hopefully someone a lot faster). This can be done essentially at any point in the game; I think there is a rule preventing pinch-hitting (or -running) in the middle of the At Bat unless there is an injury. The downside that the player substituted for cannot play any more in that particular game.

As for fouls (yes I know you found the answer) but essentially a foul occurs when a batter swings the bat, makes contact with the ball, but the ball does not go into play specifically (that is, between the direct lines from home plate to first and third bases). Because the ball is essentially swung at, it is considered a strike, but is never considered a third strike for the purposes of getting an out.

Any area outside the fair area (in front of home plate, between first and third bases) is considered the foul zone; a ball that is struck into this area can be caught for an out if it doesn't hit the ground first. For this reason, a player can foul-tip a ball (that is, the ball hits the bat just barely) and it goes straight into the catcher's glove. It is a foul, but since it went straight to the catcher, it is an out.
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Old 22-09-05, 22:12   #41
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Default Division TB

What happens if two teams in the same division have the same record in the regular season - How is the division title decided :?:
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Old 22-09-05, 22:39   #42
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The team who won most games against the other one.
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Old 26-09-05, 16:53   #43
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I have a doubt that must be pretty easy to explain

If the season ended today we would have Boston, White Sox, LAA and Clevand from American League into the playoffs and ATL, STL, SD and HOU from National League. Am i correct?

What i'd like to know is how the teams are matched in the playoffs?

BOS would play against who? How is that decided?

Tkz
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Old 26-09-05, 16:57   #44
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http://cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/standings/playoffrace
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Old 26-09-05, 18:03   #45
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Tkz FiDu :wink:
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Old 28-09-05, 23:28   #46
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well i have one question.

what if three (or more teams, if possible) end with the same score at the end of the season?

lets say NYY, CLE and BOS

i saw on cbs that CLE gets the wild card in that case. why?
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Old 29-09-05, 00:24   #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SU-47
well i have one question.

what if three (or more teams, if possible) end with the same score at the end of the season?

lets say NYY, CLE and BOS

i saw on cbs that CLE gets the wild card in that case. why?
In the event a tiebreaker is needed for the AL Wild Card, New York would play at Cleveland and Cleveland would play at Boston.
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Old 21-05-06, 21:48   #48
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hello all I have a question. I have allready readed about meeting structure, but its really intressting to know how much times did the teams meet each other in division, same league and other league (AL vs NL).
Should be nice if somebody answers quick. Thanks!
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Old 17-08-06, 05:48   #49
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Default Re: Division TB

Quote:
Originally Posted by kalman
What happens if two teams in the same division have the same record in the regular season - How is the division title decided :?:
They would play a one-game playoff. It is not uncommon. It is the day after the regular season.
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Old 02-04-07, 12:34   #50
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I always wonder what was the longest game ever played in the history. Coz when there's a draw at the end of 9th inning then teams play as long as there's a winner. I once seen "14 innings" game, but i'm more then sure that there were some longer one.
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Old 02-04-07, 13:27   #51
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http://www.baseball-almanac.com/box-...d=198405080CHA
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Old 02-04-07, 13:30   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KtosKcies
I always wonder what was the longest game ever played in the history. Coz when there's a draw at the end of 9th inning then teams play as long as there's a winner. I once seen "14 innings" game, but i'm more then sure that there were some longer one.
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/box-...d=198405080CHA
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Old 08-04-07, 21:43   #53
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Where could I find information on whether teams are going to close roofs of their ballparks for a given game?

What weather conditions make them do this? (rain, high low temperature?) I know they are supposed to file a list of conditions before a season begins but is this information publicly available?
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Old 11-07-07, 11:57   #54
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Greetings everybody!
Thought this sticky suits best.
Trying to get in touch with the game, some questions arose and I'm not sure I
figured some things out correctly by myself. So, hopefully some of the following
questions/thoughts could be answered/verified by you fellows around here!

1) Knee-deep in the stats
The more information you have, the better your prediction will be - right, but
I can't see doing that for 15 matches a day! How deep do you dig? Sure, you can
get lost in refinement, using all those numbers, but obviously more than only
pitching matchup, batting average and bullpen rating is necessary, especially
when you try to find the valuable dogs.

2) Speed
Which statistics gives me the most accurate impression of the speed of a team/a player?
Right now I would favor the OBP for offense and the Range Factor for defense, but as far
as I know you get the RF only for the single players not for the teams in general. That
seems a bit too complicated to me - are there better ways to do it?
....certainly I could just calculate the body-mass-index to get a speed-rating
- quote cafa: "they actually ARE that fat" - lol
...hehehe, couldn't help it: just imagined a 40pd-overweight "runner" trying to reach
second base, sweating like a pig, desperately gasping for breath, reeling through the glowing,
thick air of what must most likely be Rangers Ballpark or sth like that...

3) Runner's Park
Is it correct, that those ballparks could be called runner's parks, which have a
huge outfield? For instance, then Coors Field would be a runner's park and Fenway
something like a non-runner's park, although the centerfield is really deep.
(Normally a runner's park should be a pitcher's park as well, shouldn't it? With
the exception of Coors Field due to "spacetravelling" balls.)

4) Sacrifice Hit - Sacrifice Fly
Possibly a dumb question, but what the heck...
It's clear that all actions are measured and named by the outcome, but I was just
curious if a sacrifice fly is something a batter WANTS to do as an intentional tactical
maneuver like a sacrifice hit or is it "accidentally" happening?
While I see that sac.hits are mainly performed by NL pitchers being weak at bat, I
can't find any kind of logical sense in the amount of sac.flies a team records.

5) Hit by Pitch
Why is there such a huge difference between KC (55) and Cubs (17) receiving HBPs or,
the other way around: why do the Phillies (43) perform so much more HBPs than the
Dodgers (18)? Isn't that something generally frowned upon? The Phillies must be
pretty much hated among the others - and KC perhaps, too ....or is that normal
deviation?

A.
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Old 25-05-08, 18:34   #55
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CIN: M. Belisle (1-4, 6.75)
SD: G. Maddux (3-4, 3.94)
what means this for pitchers 6.75 and 3.94???
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Old 25-05-08, 23:29   #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bukic
CIN: M. Belisle (1-4, 6.75)
SD: G. Maddux (3-4, 3.94)
what means this for pitchers 6.75 and 3.94???
6.75 and 3.94 means the ERA this pitchers have. ERA stands for Earned Runs Average. It says how much runs in average pitcher allowed to score to his opponents per game. Usually higher number means worse pitcher. In this case you presented Maddux allow almost 4 runs in average per game (9 innings), Belisle - avg 6.75. With a percentage of hitting against the pitcher, WHIP (Walks plus hits per inning pitched) and strikeouts/walks balance you can decide how pitcher is doing.
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Old 05-11-16, 06:34   #57
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now i know ill never ever understand this game
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Old 05-11-16, 21:16   #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anglefire View Post
now i know ill never ever understand this game
It's not that hard. Post your questions and I will help you.
About pitchers - let's imagine, that goalie is very important in your team and then you have stats which show how many goals he allows per game.

For example:
Buffon 2.34 goals per game (GPG)
Stegen 3.12 goals per game (GPG)

It's the same with pitchers - higher number is bad.
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