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Old 12-04-18, 07:42   #1
dr-Lag
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Default Bulgaria First League 13th April - 15th April

Levski Ė Ludogorets
Under 2.5 @2.1 Betfair sportsbook

Levski is one of the most underish teams in Bulgarian league and itís understandable considering the fact that they have experienced Italian coach. 4 unders in their last 5 matches. The bookies always open their matches with very high odds for under. Then odds drop to 1.50-1.60. Here it will happen the same thing. Itís will be a nervous match as this is one of the biggest matches in Bulgaria and no doubt this is a great value bet if you take these early (and wrong) odds.




Dunav Ė Septemvri
Home win @2.80 Betfair sportsbook

13 points difference between Dunav and Septemvri, but these points are misleading. No real difference in classes here. Both teams have conceded 42 goals and Septemvri have score just 6 goals more than Dunav. More importantly Dunav should more motivated to win than Septemvri. The rules of our league are very complicated, but Dunav must finish 3rd in this group to play against Vitosha Bistritsa (the weakest team in the league) in the next phase. For Septemvri doesnít matter if they are going to finish 1st or 2nd in the group. Itís ridiculous to see Septemvri as favourites in this macth, the odds for home win definitely will drop till Sunday.
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Old 12-04-18, 10:31   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dr-Lag View Post
Levski Ė Ludogorets
Under 2.5 @2.1 Betfair sportsbook

Levski is one of the most underish teams in Bulgarian league and itís understandable considering the fact that they have experienced Italian coach. 4 unders in their last 5 matches. The bookies always open their matches with very high odds for under. Then odds drop to 1.50-1.60. Here it will happen the same thing. Itís will be a nervous match as this is one of the biggest matches in Bulgaria and no doubt this is a great value bet if you take these early (and wrong) odds.

.
Yes, Levski is underish, but I wouldn't touch unders in this particular game. Here are the reasons:
- Draw is not a good result for Levski, as they missed way too many points in the league;
- Levski will probably get a lot of positive impulse from yesterday's win vs CSKA and should score goals in this game;
- Levski defense is very fragile and would very likely be exposed by the best attack in the league.
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Old 12-04-18, 11:14   #3
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Fragile defense? What are you talking about? This is the second best defense in the league (just 17 conceded goals in 28 matches).
Draw against Ludogorets isn't a bad result for Levski. In fact I'm pretty sure they would be happy not to lose. No one would criticize them if they make a draw against the best team in the country.
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Old 13-04-18, 15:10   #4
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Originally Posted by dr-Lag View Post
Fragile defense? What are you talking about? This is the second best defense in the league (just 17 conceded goals in 28 matches).
Draw against Ludogorets isn't a bad result for Levski. In fact I'm pretty sure they would be happy not to lose. No one would criticize them if they make a draw against the best team in the country.
After winter break,Levski played 8 league games and conceded in 6 of them.
I do believe also that here will be goals,BTS most probably and maybe O2.5.
But odds too low(around 1.7-1.8)...and there is no option(for the moment) at bet365 for BTS.
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Old 15-04-18, 00:13   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dr-Lag View Post

Dunav Ė Septemvri
Home win @2.80 Betfair sportsbook

13 points difference between Dunav and Septemvri, but these points are misleading. No real difference in classes here. Both teams have conceded 42 goals and Septemvri have score just 6 goals more than Dunav. More importantly Dunav should more motivated to win than Septemvri. The rules of our league are very complicated, but Dunav must finish 3rd in this group to play against Vitosha Bistritsa (the weakest team in the league) in the next phase. For Septemvri doesnít matter if they are going to finish 1st or 2nd in the group. Itís ridiculous to see Septemvri as favourites in this macth, the odds for home win definitely will drop till Sunday.
I agree with your comment, but personally I will play more safe -0.25 Home win @2.25
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Old 15-04-18, 07:21   #6
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Originally Posted by AHTOH. View Post
I agree with your comment, but personally I will play more safe -0.25 Home win @2.25
I'm joining here the -0.25 bet on Dunav. It's value all the way. Septembri have 11pts ahead of the relegation playoff spots with 4 ganes to play, so this situation is quite relaxing and they can eve think about resting some players (just suggestion) before the EL-playoff.
Quality difference can be ignored , Both teams improved after the winter brake. Dunav need to win badly because their target is to finish 3rd in the group , so that they will have the easiest opponent for the play-outs - Vitosha Bistritsa.
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