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UEFA Europa League


UEFA Europa League
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Old 10-04-18, 12:13   #1
Miccho
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Default Salzburg - Lazio

Odds:
2.25 3.70 3.20


Any reason why RBS are favorites here? I have watched a lot of Lazio this season and they are one of the best away teams in Europe altoghether. They are actually much more comfortable playing away from home, as it suits more their formation and tactics to meet more open-playingopponents (Lazio sometimes struggles against tight defending teams at Olimpico).

Just have a look at the game vs Dinamo in Kyiv. It is no exaggeration to say that Lazio annihilated them. The score might be just 2:0, but it could have been easily 5:0 for Lazio only before HT (Immobile missed 4 sitters only in 1st half). Complete domination of the midfield by the Italians.

I have respect for RBS team, but they are below Lazio level for sure. And their power is in playing counter-attacking football, which they won't be given the chance to do this match. I think they stand no chance against Lazio in a game, where they have to attack the Eagles.

Laziali will dominate the center completely with their 3+2 midfield formation. RBS unstable defense will be exposed a lot, and I expect Ciro Immobile and Felipe Anderson to torture them a lot.

I am surprised with these odds. I was expecting Lazio to be 2.0 favorites here.


Lazio +0.25 @ 1.92

Last edited by Miccho; 10-04-18 at 12:16.
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Old 10-04-18, 22:54   #2
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What`s wrong with the odds? bet365 for example opening odds:
2.6-3.39-2.6 .

Salzburg vs Lazio H2H

Head-to-head matches: SALZBURG - LAZIO
05.04.18 EL Lazio Salzburg 4 : 2
02.12.09 EL Salzburg Lazio 2 : 1
17.09.09 EL Lazio Salzburg 1 : 2

Salzburg scored two away goals.

Salzburg are untouchable Bundesliga leaders while Lazio have the upcoming game in Serie A on 15.04.2018 21:45 against who and for what?

Well, what is wrong with the odds? Bookies set the odds and then the market moved them.
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Old 11-04-18, 09:04   #3
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I am not sure what you are trying to say here. H2H games from 2009 - is that serious? From 2009... You can also give some H2H games from before World War 2. I guess they are also as relevant..

Salzburg are undispited AUSTRIAN Bundesliga leaders, i.e. one of the weak leagues in the continent. I gave clear reasons why I consider Lazio favorites. They are the better team, they are fantastic away team and they are in super hot form. I guess this can be enough to beat the "undisputed Bundesliga leaders", which happen not to be Bayern Munchen.
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Old 11-04-18, 10:37   #4
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@ Miccho
The only problem is that Lazio are hosting Roma on Sunday. Currently Lazio sit 3rd and Roma are 4th, the two teams have equal points - 60, but Inter is just one point them with 59. And considering the outcome from the first game, which Lazio won 4:2 I think they may decide to be a bit more relaxed here. It is true that if Salzburg beat them 2:0 Lazion are out of the competition, but still I am not sure how they are going to approach this game and may be it is right that they are not favored so much.
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Old 11-04-18, 11:22   #5
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HearAr,

that's a good and relevant argument, I agree. Yet, Lazio are far from qualified, yet, and winning Europa League seems like the top priority for them. I am absolutley sure Inzaghi will go with the best 11 on Thursday.

Plus, Lazio are well-oiled machine. A team which doesn't win games with ferocious counter-pressing and physical effort, but with very smart movement and chemistry between the players.

In any case, Salzburg need to attack and open up is the what suits most Lazio style.
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Old 11-04-18, 13:13   #6
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My 2 cents

Odds seem right as Lazio doesnt have to win here.

Austrian newspaper is sayin that Lazio away recieved 16x so far more than 2 goals ?
Got no time for a research if thats true, but still they recieved 2 in Rome.
Miccho got a point by sayin that counters suit their style atm and their away record in SeriaA is better than their at home.

RBS will have to and will attack. They got no other choice.
But they should praise the Lord anyway that they got away with 2:4.
Even a 2:6 would have been justified

That leads towards

O 3.0 AHC 1.950 bet365 7/10

Result 2:0 RBS 13.00 bet365 1/10 as kind of backup
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Old 11-04-18, 23:31   #7
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Lazio this season plays some fantastic football in attack with players like Milinkovic Savic, Luis Alberto, Felipe Anderson supported by Lulic, Marusic, Nani, they are one of the best teams to watch this season in europe, to my taste. Inzaghi takes EL very seriously, fielding a strong squad. I think he's going to do that again tomorrow despite the all-important derby on the weekend. I excpect Lazio to score tomorrow, probably more than once. OTOH their defense is far from perfect and the hosts should be able to score as well. Which leads me to think the game will end with both teams scoring, and possibly a big over, something like 2-2. I won't bet on Lazio to win though, becuse they don't need to.
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Old 12-04-18, 12:00   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by footballeye View Post
. I won't bet on Lazio to win though, becuse they don't need to.
I agree. This is why I suggest Lazio +0.25 (half win if Lazio doesn't win).
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Old 12-04-18, 13:27   #9
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come on Bandit, what clear nonsense you are writing here - RB 2:6 would have been more Fitting? Get outta here! RB got a well deserved 2:2 Equalizer in Minute 71 until then they were definetly equal strength and Play and only a stupid mistake where they let a Player unattached walk halfway through the field and net in the 3:2 turned the game in the end. 4:2 was too high, 3:2 would have been ok.
RB at home are much better in European leagues, had i.e. no Problems to qualify against Dortmund, unbeaten since years on their soil.
Lazio even can affort to lose by 1 Goal. So Odds are correct in favor of RB here.

My bet it clearly the over 2.5, 1.74 ok Odds as RB Needs a 2 Goal win and Lazio can score as well. All between a 3:1 or a 1:3 is possible here but i expect many Goals here.
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Old 12-04-18, 15:10   #10
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I was commenting in the Madrid thread about precedents in my database, and I noticed something interesting about this match. There have been 11 second legs like this one...away side in first leg loses by 2 goals as a large underdog, then plays at home in the second leg in a match in which neither side are a favorite of under 2.00.

The home sides have gone 3-6-2. There are a couple of ways to sort those matches:

If you sort them by away odds in first leg, Salzburg are in a group that have gone 0-4-1 in the second leg.

If you sort them by second leg odds, it's a bit different. Salzburg have lower odds than any of those home sides. Three of the five non-draws have come from the margins, with the sides with the highest odds (2.85 to 3.15) winning home or away against sides with odds around 2.25 to 2.39. Counterintuitive, I know.
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Old 12-04-18, 16:32   #11
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I'm with Miccho on this one. Lazio has no need to open up and Lazio's goal average isnt very relevant if you've seen their derby games where rather than scoring as many as they can they prefer to play more conservatively. Do they score? Yes, but that's not the point.. the point is they dont open up. Lazio played a 2-2 draw with Dynamo last round at home and then didnt allow a single shot on goal in Ukraine winning 0-2. So the question is can Salzburg break an italian defense? So far the austrians have met Dortmund and Sociedad and both have very notable defensive problems these days. Lazio has the advantage in height I believe so even if Salzburg push hard and get corners or free kicks it wont be easy to score. But consider this as well - Salzburg has to win 2-0 so why open up early on and risk conceding early when the legs are still fresh? I'm sure they're thinking something along those lines. So if they waste the 1st half being indecisive then all you have is another 45 mins so goals in my opinion are prehaps not the best way to go. No pressure on Lazio, scoring 1 away would probably level Salzburg's morale. I think the value is on the away team here but after what we've seen over the past 2 days.. nothing is certain, maybe something unexpected will happen

PS - haha, so much for the "italian defense" and lazio's goal motivated salzburg instead of levelling their morale

Last edited by f1ght3r; 12-04-18 at 21:40.
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Old 12-04-18, 23:30   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by allthethings View Post
I was commenting in the Madrid thread about precedents in my database, and I noticed something interesting about this match. There have been 11 second legs like this one...away side in first leg loses by 2 goals as a large underdog, then plays at home in the second leg in a match in which neither side are a favorite of under 2.00.

The home sides have gone 3-6-2. There are a couple of ways to sort those matches:

If you sort them by away odds in first leg, Salzburg are in a group that have gone 0-4-1 in the second leg.
Interestingly, I actually made one observation a long time ago about this particular situatiuon, when the stronger team in the pair takes a 2-goal lead into the second leg which it plays away. The observation was that often times the second leg ends in a draw. The reason for that is that 2 scenarios are likely for the second leg: 1) The weaker team pushes forward at home, scores once, in the second half opens up more looking to score the second goal to eliminate the deficit, gets caught on a counter, the visitors equalize, the hosts' morale drops, and the match ends in a draw. 2) The visitors score first, now that they have a 3-goal aggregate lead they relax, the home team realizes they can't eliminate the deficit anymore but they score a consolation goal against the somewhat relaxed opposition as to save the face and avoid a home defeat, and the game ends in a draw. So, there might be some value in backing the draw in this particular situation.

Now Lazio apparently relaxed too much after taking the 3-goal lead, and Salzburg achieved a bit more than just a consolation goal
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Old 13-04-18, 06:51   #13
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Quote:
O 3.0 AHC 1.950 bet365 7/10

Result 2:0 RBS 13.00 bet365 1/10 as kind of backup
RBS - LZR 4:1

1. Bet wom

2. Bet lost
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