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Old 19-06-18, 03:55   #1
WiserthantheCrowd
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Default **WC POD 19/06/2018**

Here are main rules, you will find others here:

http://forum.bettingadvice.com/showthread.php?t=110009

Price booty will be a bit higher than for regular POD, 1st place will be awarded with 150 EUR, second place with 100 EUR and third place will bring 50 EUR!

Here are the rules:

The Competition

The competition has the purpose to gather the best bets of a certain day of WC 2018. It's for fun, but the competition can also be a good place for tipsters to find picks quicker than browsing all pages. You can place your Pick of the day and score points if it satisfies the conditions that are stated below. The competition lasts one month and in that period, a contestant must give exactly 8 picks. YOU CAN ENTER THE COMPETITION UNTIL IT IS POSSIBLE TO PICK EIGHT POD-s. It means, entering competition after only 7 days of the WC left, is not possible. Every missing pick till 8 at the end of the month will be punished with -100 points per missing pick.
You must be a registered user of this forum to participate. You must have a unique IP address, not more than one competitor can use the same address.
Odds must be between 1.50 and 3.50 and only odds taken from these 3 bookmakers are allowed:

Bet365
Pinnacle
SBOBet

You must write arguments for your pick or at least give a link to a prediction on BA main page, written by yourself.
About the conditions

You can only give one pick per day. Your pick must be different to all other placed picks, but you can back another team/player in the same game as someone else has taken. For your pick to count, it must be posted at least 1 hour before the event starts.

You cannot back the same team/player as someone else even if you take a different bet type (for example handicap bet, different game total etc.). But this rule applies only for quarterfinals/semifinals/finals of the WC!!! In the group phase of WC and in 1/8 finals you can take picks that were already taken by other users!!!

You can take these bet types (but only inside allowed odds from 1,50 to 3,50!):

-Asian handicap bets (final or HT)
-European handicap bets (final or HT)
-Over/Under bets (Game total) (final or HT)
-Home/Draw/Away bets (final or HT)
-Double Chance (1X,12,X2)
-Both teams to score (Yes/No)
-Half time/Full time
-Player to score (anytime scorer, first scorer)
-Number of corners (final or HT)
-Number of cards
-First team to score (Yes/No)
-Second team to score (Yes/No)
-number of goals scored team 1/team 2

You must write the correct bookie and correct odds in the time of your posting.

Scoring

A pick that was wrong will cost you 100 points. When you've made a correct pick, and it satisfied the conditions, you will gain 100 (Odds-1) points. For example, a successful pick @ 1.85 will give you 85 points. This is the net profit if you had staked 100 units. Asian Handicaps will be calculated accoringly to the net profit. It is not allowed to pick odds below 1,50 and above 3,50.
The contestant that scores the highest number of points with 8 picks, will win the monthly competition. In case he fails to give 8 picks, 100p-for every missing pick- will be deducted from his score.
To win Special WC POD you MUST make 8 bets ! Hopefully we will have time to update the standings everyday, but there may be some delays from time to time.

Good luck to all!!!!!
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Old 19-06-18, 04:06   #2
WiserthantheCrowd
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Pick#2 0-0-1 -100
Poland vs. Senegal
Pick: Senegal AH(0) at 2.5 with Pinnacle

Poland are an average squad. They got a good FIFA ranking because of a little bit of manipulation (not playing friendlies). They're going into this match as favorites but I disagree with that assessment. Upfront they're heavily dependent on Lewandowski. The Senegalese defense has looked solid in recent games and I think they'll be able to neutralize Lewandowski. This may create opportunities for Milik... At the other end of the pitch, Poland will be without Kamil Glick in defense which is a big loss in my view. I expect Sadio Mane and Moussa Sow to breach the Polish defense... Overall, I think Senegal have been coming along nicely under Cisse who was tinkering a little bit with his formation but now seems confident of his starting lineup... I don't see why Poland should be favored here.
1-2 Pick won!

Last edited by Macot; 19-06-18 at 19:13.
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Old 19-06-18, 06:31   #3
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#5 (2-2) +179
Colombia - Japan

Colombia -1.5 ah @ 3.00 (bet365)

Japan had some problems with their manager / national coach leading up to this world cup and they are going to be affected by this. Asian countries also are not very good anymore, biggest talent pool was in South Korea and they heavily dissapointed against Sweden, Japan's best player is still Honda that is not at his prime anymore and he moved his talents all the way from Europe's top leagues to another continent in Primera division of Mexico for Pachuca. Colombia had James Rodriguez in Brazil 2014 and he was the biggest star of that last world cup. They together with Urugay could be the only two South American countries that opened this tournament well. Colombia have great, experienced and wise manager and solid run from last year. They are favorites against weaker Japan.
1-2 Pick lost!

Last edited by Macot; 19-06-18 at 19:13.
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Old 19-06-18, 07:09   #4
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2nd pick / +0 / 0W-1V-0L
Colombia - Japan [pick: over 1.5 half-time goals / odds 3.50 / bookie Bet365]

Colombia played 2 0:0 games in their last 2 friendlies before WC 2018. 0:0 against Australia and 0:0 against Egypt, odds are still overrated and they shouldn't be this high. They also just dropped from 3.75 to 3.50 for half-time goals. Australia and Egypt were mostly defending in those games and they just wanted to keep some positive results to keep their spirit high before the real thing starts.

But before those 2 0:0 friendlies Colombia played 2:3 against France and 4:0 against China. Japan also played a crazy game that saw 6 goals in their last one before WC, it was a 4:2 win against Paraguay where goals were raining. Japan's defense is not impressive and Colombia should try and score early in the first half. They saw how many better teams struggled in this WC so far and they don't want to relive through the same fate in group with Mane's Senegal and Robert Lewandowski's Poland.

Colombia should open hard and look for goals to get their early lead, this opens up an opportunity for action in first half, good luck.
1-1 Pick won!

Last edited by Macot; 19-06-18 at 19:14.
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Old 19-06-18, 08:37   #5
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0/1 -100

#2

Colombia - Japan

pick: UNDER 0,5 HT
odds: 2,37
book: bet365

I do not believe that both team will play an open game from the begining. Beside these two Nations in the group H plays also Poland and Senegal. It is a very equal group in my opinion. I predict a slow start. Both team have stars and individuals that can win a game easily. Colombia with Falcao, James Rodriguez and Japan with Okazaki, Kagawa. It is a first match so a lost can be very tough. If I had to I would like to predict a win by Colombia, 1-0 or so. I do not see here a high win or an over either. Goals will be scored at 17:00 in Moscow.
1-1 Pick lost!

Last edited by Macot; 19-06-18 at 19:14.
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Old 19-06-18, 08:51   #6
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Pick No 2 (1W 0V 0L) +61

Russia vs Egypt

Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.24
Pinnacle


Probable starting lineups:

Russia:
Akinfeev, Zhirkov, Ignashevich, Kutepov, Mario Fernandes, Gazinskiy, Zobnin, Golovin, Cheryshev, Samedov, Dzyuba

Egypt:
El-Shenawy, Mohamed Abdel-Shafi, Gabr, Hegazy, Ahmed Fathi, Hamed, Elneny, Trezeguet, Said, Salah, Mohsen

I expect Russia and Egypt to share the points gere. The host nation started the World Cup in fantastic way. They beat Saudi Arabia with 5:0 thanks to the goals scored by Yuri Gazinsky, Denis Cheryshev (2), Artem Dzyuba, and Aleksandr Golovin. It was an impressive victory, however there is a sense that Russia beat a team not really capable of competing at the highest level. Egypt are much stronger, no doubt about that. For this match coach Stanislav Cherchesov will be without Alan Dzagoev who suffered a hamstring injury on the previous match.

Egypt suffered a narrow defeat in the first round. They were unlucky to concede a late goal and lost 1:0 to Uruguay. Mohamed Salah remained an unused substitute as he continues to recover from a shoulder injury sustained in Liverpool's Champions League final on 26 May. His absence is the main reason for the defeat. Coach Hector Cuper announced that Salah is fit and will star from the first minute. His return will means a lot to his teammates as Salah is player able to make difference.

As conclusion, I don't see clear favorites here. Russia play at home and they will have the fans' support. But Egypt with Salah is completely different team. Liverpool winger had a great season scoring 44 goals and providing 16 assists in 52 games for the club. I expect a draw in Saint Petersburg.
3-1 pick lost

Last edited by Macot; 19-06-18 at 21:06.
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Old 19-06-18, 09:01   #7
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0-2
-200

third pick

Colombia - Japan pick over 1.25 first half Bet365 3.00

For me no doubt at all.
I saw both teams recently and I saw big class difference between these two. So I pick here Colombia to score twice in the first half without much thinking.
Before World Cup started, I told my family and friends that we should bet against S. Korea, Saudi Arabia , Australia and Japan. So far so good.
For me only my stupid love towards over 1.5 first half goals took me so far big amount of money as this World Cup was poor in that thing.

Over 1.25 safer choice!

Good luck !!!!
1-1 Pick won!
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Last edited by Macot; 19-06-18 at 19:14.
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Old 19-06-18, 09:46   #8
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Pick # 1
Russia - Egypt
Pick: over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.65
Bookie: Pinnacle

The Russians know very well that if they win this match they will qualify for the round of 16 and they will be highly motivated. Russia recorded four overs 2.5 goals in their last five matches at home. In preparation for the World Cup Russia scored three goals against Spain for the final 3-3 and they also scored one goal against Brazil when failed 1-3. Dzagoev will miss this game for Russia with injury, but Cheryshev who replaced him scored two goals in opening game. On the other hand Egypt have nothing to lose. They have Mohamed Salah back into the squad. Egypt recorded two over 2.5 goals in their last four matches on the road.
3-1 pick won

Last edited by Macot; 19-06-18 at 21:06.
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Old 19-06-18, 11:57   #9
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Pick #4
Balance: +267.5
2-0-1
Colombia - Japan
2nd Half - OVER 1.5 @2.50 bet365

I share the similar view with some of the guys above about the class difference between Japan and Colombia but I also share the same view with saab about this game. I think this is the only group where you don't have bigger favourite team really. Look at Senegal, Poland, Colombia...any of them can finish at the first top two places, it's going to be very interesting to see how this group turns out in the end. I agree with him about a slow start too, Colombia were never offensive masters and this is their first game in this cup. They know how important this is so they will warm up in 1st half and then be more potent in 2nd for scoring. Japan also should try and be more aggressive in the 1st half but rather in defensive way than offensive, they'll probably defend harder and wait for their openings in 2nd part of this game as the weaker opponent. 2nd part of the game could bring goals and decide a winner here, majority of games finished as a 0:0 draw after first 45 minutes which is completely normal for opening round.
0-1 Pick lost!

Last edited by Macot; 19-06-18 at 19:15.
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Old 19-06-18, 11:59   #10
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Pick #3
[1 0 1 (+133)]

Colombia - Japan

Pick: Colombia -1.5
Odds: 3.45
Bookie: Bet365

Colombia played nice in their qualifiers for the World Cup, they had strong start and they deserved to be here. Their opening match is against Japan, team with smaller chances in this group. Other teams are Poland and Senegal, teams who can be more dangerous than Japan. Only three points is an option for Columbia for this match, in order to stay as first favorite in this group. They must attack and to score some goals, and they have enough attacking power to start this World Cup with a victory. James Rodriguez is a star who can shine again on this World Cup.

Japan is one of the weakest squads in this World Cup in my opinion, they have difficult group and they will try to hold a draw with first favorite in this group. They are poor in attack and in defense they are not something special. I really doubt they can score single goal today.

I am going with Colombia today, they will win for sure IMO, hopefully with more than one goal difference.

Good luck, CHEERS
1-2 Pick lost!
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Last edited by Macot; 19-06-18 at 19:15.
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Old 19-06-18, 12:06   #11
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Pick # 5 (3-0-1) +111
Colombia vs Japan
Pick: Colombia to win
Odds: 1.84
Bookie: Pinnacle


Japan had some turbulent time in the last two months. Japan unexpectedly sack head coach Vahid Halilhodzic just two months before the FIFA World Cup. I think its a big blow for Japan in this tournament. Also Japan was beaten in the previous two friendly meets against Ukraine 2-1 and Ghana 2-0, looking pretty fragile on the field. Colombia are experienced and well balanced team. I expect Colombia to win here.
1-2 Pick lost!

Last edited by Macot; 19-06-18 at 19:15.
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Old 19-06-18, 12:23   #12
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Pick 1
Poland - Senegal
Pick: over 2.5
Odd:2.58
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Poland has of course big potential in attack - Lewandowski, Milik, Zielinski, Grosicki ... but on the contrary in defensive have problems - Glik has injury and won't play, second central defender Pazdan is in last months in very weak form - in Ekstraklasa in many matches he was more dangerous for Legia than opponents.... in friendly games before World Cup he made many mistakes too.. Even in statistics - 10 Poland matches in eliminations and always at least 3 goals... 3 last friendly games at least 4 goals in each of them...
Senegal not so many goals in last matches like in Poland matches but I see high chance that they score at least once today.
1-2 Pick won!

Last edited by Macot; 19-06-18 at 19:16.
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Old 19-06-18, 13:18   #13
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#1

Poland- Senegal

Pick: both to score @ 2.08 Pinnacle

Poland defensively are an average side. They conceded a lot during qualification campaign. With influential central defender Glik out (not confirmed yet) I predict Poland struggle even more in defensive end. We know Mane from Liverpool very well but there are other threats in Senegal lineup. Physically Poles are inferior to their opponents and there***8217;s a serious risk that they***8217;ll lose battle in the middle of the park. It should lead to scoring chances for Senegal.
On the other hand Poland have experience, team-spirit and Lewandowski up-front. Poland are dependent on him what is disadvantage but as long he***8217;s on the pitch, they can score anytime during 90 minutes plus his presence opens up spaces for other players. As far as I know sub-Saharan teams are not disciplined (at least not like European ones) and something tells me that Polish coach can outsmart his counterpart.
Imo both teams will struggle to keep a clean sheet.
1-2 Pick won!

Last edited by Macot; 19-06-18 at 19:16.
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Old 19-06-18, 14:09   #14
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Pick 1

Russia - Egypt

Pick: Over 10.5 corners (Number of corners FT)
Odds: 2.87 @ bet365

I think that we should expect very open game play with many attacks by both teams and a lot of situations in front of the goals. Russia started the best way possible with 5-0 win against the Saudis, a win today equals qualification for the next stage. For Egypt this is do or die game, they started with a loss against Uruguay and now a loss means elimination for them almost certainly. Because of the expected pressure in attack and the potential that both teams have to reach deep into opponent half i expect also a lot of corners to happen.
7-4 pick won

Last edited by Macot; 19-06-18 at 21:08.
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Old 19-06-18, 14:57   #15
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Pick 3
-200

Poland vs Senegal

Sadio Mane to score
Odds 3.25 Bet365

Sadio Mane is the best player in Senegal by far. If he won't score a goal then Senegal have small chances against Polish players. Mane played in Champions League finals against Real Madrid and he also played very good in Liverpool's premier league season in England.

Mane is the highest rated player in Senegal and others are not even close to him in terms of quality, he's the biggest star and should score one goal.
pick lost!

Last edited by Macot; 19-06-18 at 19:16.
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Old 19-06-18, 15:00   #16
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Pick 5 of 8
Profit +20
Poland-Senegal

Over 1.5 ht @ 3.50 bet365

Two teams without impressive defending and they just saw that Colombia lost to Japan. This is now a great shot for Poland and Senegal to win 3 points just like Japan and make this group very interesting. Poland are known for Lewandowski that is one of the best attackers overall and Senegal have one of the big three of Liverpool in Sadio Mane. I saw that Senegal really played well against better defensive side Croatia in Osijek, Croatia in our friendly with them. Poland are worse in defense than us and this game will have goals IMHO, Senegal are fast and Mane can be deadly in attack, gl.
0-1 Pick lost!
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Last edited by Macot; 19-06-18 at 19:17.
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Old 19-06-18, 17:27   #17
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Pick 1

Russia - Egypt

Over 2.5
2.57
PINNACLE


Unironically no one has played as well as Russia in their first game, but this is of course because they faced weakest team out of all in Saudi Arabia. Egypt played without Salah in Uruguay match and they were heartbroken in the end. After defending well for prolonged period of time they finally conceded a late header against Uruguay. Russia must face Uruguay in last round and Urugay is most likely going to top this group, so hosts are underdogs against Uruguay. If they lose today against Egypt they might be out. Salah will play today injured or not, if Egypt beats Russia they can have a field day against Arabia and collect 6 points. Russia must take something from this match, their position is not really as good as it looks after that 5:0 win. It depends about today's score and if they take that point or not. Egypt will attack and go for full win, Uruguay will have 9 and with a draw Russia will have 4 total if they lose against Uruguay, in this probable outcome Egypt must win match to try and go for 6 points because 4 won't be enough with Russia's goal difference because of 5:0 win, my call is 2 goals at HT because of this.
3-1 pick won

Last edited by Macot; 19-06-18 at 21:07.
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Old 19-06-18, 17:59   #18
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Pick (1) / +0
Russia vs. Egypt

Number of Cards - Over 4.0
Odds - 2.54 / pinnacle

Paraguayan referee Cacares will be the main ref for this game between Russia and Egypt. Cacares shows plenty of cards and red cards in Paraguay, I don't think he's the best ref for this game but this is good for cards bet because such important game like this one must have more challenges than your usual game.

Egypt are strong physical team and Russia by nature are strong and physical people. Egypt are on 0 pts and Russia on 3 but they will try and perform well again in front of the home crowd. Tough game with bad ref that averages lots of cards and reds.
2 yellows pick lost

Last edited by Macot; 19-06-18 at 21:08.
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