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Germany/Austria/Switzerland
Discuss your German/Austrian/Swiss predictions and analysis. Bundesliga and 2.Bundesliga, Swiss NLA and NLB, Austrian Bundesliga and Regional
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Old 24-05-18, 09:18   #1
Azure
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Default Germany, Regionalliga Playoffs, 24.-27.05.2018

Well, here we are again, about to witness the idiotic last stage of German 4th divisions, when 3 of 6 teams get robbed of the achievements of a great season... At least playoff rules got improved (a tiny bit) for upcoming seasons, but overall it's still really unfair and sucks big time. Why regional German football associations and national DFB just can't see that the step from 5 (FIVE!!) divisions at this level to just 1 division in 3.Liga is really stupid, impracticable and desperately needs to be changed, is beyond me.

Saarbrücken - 1860 München (Germany, Regionalliga Playoffs, First Leg; Thu, 24.05.2018, 17:30)
Southwest winner FCS already played vs Bavarian Champ in RL playoffs 2014/2015, failing to promote after two tight games (0:1, 1:0) in penalties. Last four FCS homegames have been lowscoring and the majority of the games vs top opponents in RL Southwest has been lowscoring as well in this season. - 1860 München obviously played a rather highscoring season in RL Bavaria, but that had a lot to do with poor average quality and/or playing style of opponents imo. They won't be able to score as easily vs Saarbrücken as they did vs Eichstätt, Garching or Pipinsried in Bavaria. - I think it's more likely to see a cautious approach of both teams (esp in a first leg!) than any kind of open gameplay with loads of goals. Additionally both would surely be satisfied with a 1:0 win and not go for more goals at full force when leading.
Under 2,75 @1,99 pin (2/10)

Flensburg - Cottbus (Germany, Regionalliga Playoffs, First Leg; Thu, 24.05.2018, 19:00)
I'm surprised to see Cottbus that much of a fav here. Flensburg had to fight hard till seasonend to win the North division while Cottbus was able to relax earlier after dominating the Northeast. That might actually be an advantage for Flensburg... Hosts is a tough team. Very well working automatisms, solid defense and dangerous at setpieces upfront. Lost only 3 games this season (none vs top opponents). Game will be played at Holstein Kiel stadium instead of regular Flensburg homeground due to security reasons. Cottbus with almost flawless season in RL NE (28-5-1) and great defense (only 14 goals conceded in 34 games!) probably has to be favoured a bit, but -0,5 sounds too much to me. Leaning Flensburg +0,5 and under in this game. Unfortunately under 2,5 odds just dropped clearly, so I settle for the AH.
Flensburg +0,5 @2,12 pin (2/10)

Uerdingen - Mannheim (Germany, Regionalliga Playoffs, First Leg; Thu, 24.05.2018, 19:00)
West Champ Uerdingen hosting SW runner-up Mannheim at MSV Duisburg stadium (because derelict "Grotenburg" too old and unsafe). Uerdingen went on a rampage after changing the coach in March. With Krämer in charge (switch from controlled, compact, result-oriented football to attacking-minded pressing style), they won 11 of 12 games (9 of those by high margin!) and kept clean sheets 8 times. Müller (omf) is injured, but important captain Erb (cdf) returned in training (after breaking his jaw two weeks ago) and probably can play. Mannheim played a very good spring season under Trares, but wasn't able to attack Saarbrücken at the top. They hope to finally advance to 3.Liga after failing in playoffs in last two seasons: 16/17 vs Meppen, 15/16 vs Lotte. But I think they gonna fail again here. Uerdingen looks like even stronger team compared to those opponents in previous two years. Individual quality of KFC is already 3.Liga level and they got great confidence after that positive run with Krämer.
Uerdingen -0,5 @2,04 pin (2/10)
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Old 24-05-18, 13:09   #2
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All of these teams seem fairly evenly-matched and I think there is a good chance that all of the games will end with under 2.5 goals... I could certainly see Saarbrücken vs. 1860 Munich ending 0-0.

Waldhof Mannheim has played low-scoring matches in all relegation games and I don't see that changing tonight... They haven't conceded much or scored any in their last relegation matches... Uerdingen might win 1-0 here.

I was also surprised to see that Flensburg was such an outsider at home till I saw that they won't be playing at home - apparently, 4.000 tickets have been sold to Cottbus and only 1.000 to the "home" side... Not sure that there is any value there.
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Old 24-05-18, 15:33   #3
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As I see DFB is creating future foundations for 4.liga like they created 3. liga in 2008/2008 season. So with this Regionalliga will be 5th level as leagues must be professional and Regionalliga is semi-professional

and one curiosity Mannheim are now the first club ever, which takes a third attempt in the rise games.
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Old 24-05-18, 17:13   #4
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[QUOTE=Azure;2573526]Well, here we are again, about to witness the idiotic last stage of German 4th divisions, when 3 of 6 teams get robbed of the achievements of a great season... At least playoff rules got improved (a tiny bit) for upcoming seasons, but overall it's still really unfair and sucks big time. Why regional German football associations and national DFB just can't see that the step from 5 (FIVE!!) divisions at this level to just 1 division in 3.Liga is really stupid, impracticable and desperately needs to be changed, is beyond me.

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Old 25-05-18, 06:39   #5
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5 goals in two of those 1st leg games... wow

Saarbrücken - 1860 München 2:3. - 0:1 in first minute, FCS red card after 25 minutes... Under 2,75 lost.

Flensburg - Cottbus 2:3. - Overall balanced gameplay, Cottbus deadly efficient in first half. Too bad that Flensburg wasted a good chance for possible 3:3 in last second of the game. Flensburg +0,5 lost.

Uerdingen - Mannheim 1:0. - Bit lucky but not undeserved homewin in the end. Uerdingen -0,5 won.
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