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Scandinavia
Discuss Norwegian, Swedish, Danish, and Finnish, Icelandic, Faeroic, etc soccer here. Premier, 1.div and 2.div (and even lower, if bookies offer odds).
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Old 05-03-18, 08:34   #1
mightye
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Default Norway Eliteserien 10-12 March

Sunday 11.03.2018 Odd - Haugesund:

Game start: 18:00 CET.

Odd are using artificial turf at their home stadium - Skagerak Arena. Haugesund are using natural grass at their home stadium.

Odd (12-6-12) ended in a disappointing 6th place in Eliteserien 2017, much due to the departures of Fredrik Oldrup Jensen (Mid - Zulte Waregem) and Rafik Zeknini (Mid/Att - Fiorentina) last summer.
Oliver Berg (Mid 25/1 - Dalkurd), Etzaz Hussain (Mid 11/3 - Molde, loan deal expired) and Olivier Occean (Att 24/2 - Out of contract) have left since last season.
Former Odd starlet Torgeir Børven (Att) has been signed from Brann. Tobias Lauritsen (Att) has been signed from local side Pors.
Odd ended 5-2-0 during their pre-season, and they won 3-0 at home against Sandefjord yesterday.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Haugesund (11-6-13) ended 10th in Eliteserien 2017, and they had 5 straight losses at the end of the season. The white and blues were clearly reduced after Filip Kiss (Mid) and Haris Hajradinovic (Mid) left last summer.
Haugesund are 1-3-3 so far during pre-season in 2018, 2-2 draw against OBOS-Liga side Åsane yesterday.

Joakim Våge Nilsen (Def/Mid - Odd), Torbjørn Kallevåg (Mid - Hødd), Christian Grindheim (Mid - Vålerenga) and Babajide David Akintola (Att - Midtjylland, loan deal) have been signed.

Sverre Bjørkkjær (Def 2/0 - Strømmen), Jakub Serafin (Mid 10/1 - Lech Poznan, loan period expired), Eirik Mæland (Mid 4/0 - Fredrikstad), Erik Huseklepp (Att 15/1 - Åsane), Johnny Buduson (Att 10/0 - HamKam) and Liban Abdi (Att 24/5 - Al Ittifaq) have left.

Odd - Haugesund ended 1-0 in 2017. (Haugesund - Odd ended 0-2)

The first round of Eliteserien is coming up this weekend, and the odds are moving already. Ill decide to take the bets early, as I expect the odds to drop further into the matchday.
Odd have lost many first team players the latest seasons, but their starting eleven are still holding top Eliteserie class.
Undefeated during pre-season (5-2-0), and many clear victories after goals from different players.
Haugesund lost 7 of their 8 last Eliteserie games in 2017, and they were 1-3-3 during pre-season.
Odd were 10-2-3 at home, while Haugesund were 5-1-9 on the road in Eliteserien 2017.
I believe Odd will keep their momentum from the pre-season games into the start of Eliteserien 2018, and then they should have a good chance to win the season opener in front of the home crowd at Skagerak Arena.

Pick: Odd (-0.5 AH), 9/10 stakes, odds 2.09@SBO. Good luck!
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Old 05-03-18, 08:55   #2
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Sunday 11.03.2018 Strømsgodset - Stabæk:

Game start: 18:00 CET.

Strømsgodset (14-8-8) ended 4th in Eliteserien 2018, one point behind Sarpsborg 08 at 3rd.
The Drammen side were 11-2-2 (including 4 away victories in a row!) since early July, and they are a clear medal candidate/dark horse for the title in Eliteserien 2018.
They have signed Aalesunds topscorer the latest seasons, Mos Abdellaoue (Att 30/16), as well as OBOS-Liga side Mjøndalens star winger/attacker Amahl Pellegrino (Att 30/18).
Herman Stengel (Mid 21/6) has been signed in central midfield position from Vålerenga.

Lots of reasons to be optimistic about the future for Strømsgodsets supporters this season:
- Very solid form in 2nd half of last season
- Their "away curse" were not only challenged, but defeated last season.
- New coach Skullerud are now heading into his 2nd season as coach, and the players are well familiar with his gameplay/tactics.
- All key players have stayed (at this point)
- The new signings Stengel, Pellegrino and Mos are all clear alternatives to a already strong first 11.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Stabæk (10-9-11) ended 9th in Eliteserien 2017, even though they started the season like a top side.
Captain Morten Morisbak Skjønsberg (Def 30/1 - Retired) and Ahmed El Amrani (Mid/Att 5/0 - Honka, Finland) have left.
Steinar Strømnes (Def - Strømmen) and the young talent Abdul-Basit Agouda (Att - Strømsgodset) have been signed.

Strømsgodset - Stabæk ended 1-2 in 2017. (Stabæk - Strømsgodset ended 0-2)

Season opener between two trigger happy sides. Strømsgodset prefer to dominate games at home, while Stabæk surely doesnt mind laying low and go for quick counter-attacks.
Strømsgodsets pre-season (2-1 Bodø Glimt, 1-2 Krasnodar, 2-2 Lokomotiv Moscow, 6-0 Sandefjord, 2-3 Sarpsborg 08 and 5-0 Mjøndalen) have all been high scoring games, and they will face the runner-up Top scorer in Eliteserien 2017, Ohi Omoijuanfo (Att 27/17) here.
Stabæk have, like Strømsgodset, been involved in many high scoring pre-season games (5-1 Asker, 7-1 Kongsvinger, 1-5 Ullensaker Kisa, 2-3 IFK Gøteborg, 1-2 Strømmen, 1-0 Sandefjord, 2-4 Vålerenga, 0-4 Odd, 0-1 Rostov and 2-3 Sarpsborg 08).
Goals are always in the air whenever Strømsgodset are playing at Marienlyst, and Stabæk are more than capable of joining the scoresheet on Sunday.

Pick: Over 2.5 goals, odds 1.86@Pinnacle. Good luck!
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Old 07-03-18, 11:04   #3
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Sunday 11.03.2018 Start - Tromsø:

Game start: 18:00 CET.

Start are using artificial turf at their home stadium - Sør Arena. Tromsø are also using artificial pitch at their home stadium.

Start (16-7-7) promoted from OBOS-Ligaen 2017, and returned to the top league at first attempt.
The yellow and blacks have been through a major change in personell, and sports director Tor-Kristian Karlsen (former Monaco) has brought some players that normally wouldnt have signed for a newly promoted Eliteserie side.
Former Haugesund and Djurgården coach Mark Dempsey is now in charge of the Kristiansand side, and former coach Steinar Pedersen got sacked even though he succeeded in bringing the team back to the highest level at first attempt.

Carl Elliot Leifson Kack (Def - Djurgården, Sweden), Gudmundur Andri Tryggvason (Mid - KR Reykjavik), Michael Olusoji Ogungbaro (Mid - Jerv), Isaac Twum (Mid - Inter Allies, Ghana), Aron Sigurdarson (Mid/Att - Tromsø), Isac Lidberg (Att - Åtvidaberg, Sweden) and Kevin Kabran (Att - Brommapojkarna, Sweden) have been signed.

"Gummi" Kristjansson (Mid 21/0 - FH), Niels Vorthoren (Mid 27/9 - Sandnes Ulf), Steffen Lie Skålevik (Att 11/10 - Brann, loan deal expired), Dennis Antwi (Att 18/5 - Åsane, loan deal) and Lasse Sigurdsen (Att 4/0 - Flekkerøy, loan deal) have left.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Tromsø (10-8-12) impressed in the final parts of Eliteserien 2017, and new coach Simo Valakari managed to turn their long run without results, into avoiding relegation with clear margin.
Veteran wingback Tom Høgli has been signed from Danish side FCK.
Young starlet Mikael Norø Ingebrigtsen (Mid/Att 27/8) has sgined for Swedish side IFK Gøteborg.
Top scorer Thomas Lehne Olsen (Att 28/11) has signed for Cup winners Lillestrøm, while Aron Sigurdarson (Mid/Att 21/3) has signed for their opponents Sunday, Start.

Start - Tromsø ended 2-1 in 2016.

Season opener between a newly promoted side, and a team that fought against relegation for most of the 2017 season.
Start are back at the highest level with many new players, and staff (including new coach).
Tromsø havent signed many players, but 3 attacking players (that scored 22 of Tromsøs 42 goals last season) have left, including top scorer Lehne Olsen.
34 year old wingback Tom Høgli is back in red and white, and will together with 36 year old Morten Gamst Pedersen (Mid) be the veterans that will lead by example for the guests this season.
Lots of snow in Kristiansand at the moment, and the early weather forecast are predicting more snow on Sunday.
Sør-Arena two days ago:

https://www.nrk.no/sorlandet/sor-are...odd-1.13946726

Pick: Under 2.25 goals, 9/10 stakes, odds 2.09@Pinnacle. Good luck!
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Old 07-03-18, 13:47   #4
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Two strong bets mightye. Btw Demidov seem to be signing for Stabaek to replace Kjonsberg.

Hope most of the games will be able to play on Sunday, it's not like the weather have been optimal.
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Old 07-03-18, 18:13   #5
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Hi everyone. It has been a while since I posted here but I will hope to provide the odd bit of useful information sometimes.

First I just wanted to say congratulations to mightye for a brilliant pre season and the hard work he puts in here. Fantastic stuff!

The bets that catch my eye this weekend are Start -0.25, Stromsgodset -0.75 and over 2.75, Kristiansund DNB. But I haven't decided fully yet. Best of luck everyone!

I would also like to point you all in the direction of the Nordic Football Podcast that I am part of. We have done a season preview this week, so here is a link to take a listen if you fancy it!

http://nordicfootballpod.libsyn.com/...preview-2018-1
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Old 08-03-18, 06:51   #6
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Changes to the Season + Playing training matches
Club's ranking 2017, home and guest balances
After the new players 2017 club, played minutes, f 11(green), sub in(blue), goals(m), assist(s), red players left
mv= goalie, p= def, kk = mid and h = a
http://www.vetoveljet.com/vihjeet/en...-harkkamatseja

Last edited by VetoVeljet; 08-03-18 at 16:32.
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Old 08-03-18, 16:06   #7
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great podcast @meatman, and info about all Eliteserie sides @VetoVeljet

For the first rounds of the 2018 season, the weather may interfare, and play a larger factor in the games results, than in normal rounds. For the first round, snow might occur in several cities. Check the weather forecast before you make your bets.

Last edited by mightye; 08-03-18 at 18:09.
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Old 11-03-18, 07:31   #8
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Sunday 11.03.2018 Bodø Glimt - Lillestrøm:

Game start: 18:00 CET.

Bodø Glimt are using artificial turf at their home stadium - Aspmyra. Lillestrøm are using natural grass at their home stadium.

Bodø Glimt (22-5-3) promoted with style from OBOS-Ligaen 2017, 16 points in front of main promotion rival Start.
They have signed Endre Kupen (Att 23/14) from OBOS-Liga side Florø, but he seems to be long term injured just before the season has started.
Two defenders, Daniel Edvartsen (Def 9/1 - Sandnes Ulf) and Erlend Dahl Reitan (Def 13/2 - Rosenborg, loan deal expired) have left since last season.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lillestrøm (10-7-13) ended 12th in Eliteserien last season, but they won the Cup, and showed clear signs of a team on the rise in the end of 2017.
LSK have signed Tromsøs top goal scorer Thomas Lehne Olsen (Att 28/11), and he has, together with new signing Gary Martin (Att - York), impressed during pre-season.
Be also aware of new signing Kristoffer Ødemarksbakken (Mid/Att 30/12 - Ullensaker Kisa), that was one of the best offensive midfielders in OBOS-Ligaen 2017.
Lillestrøm ended 3-3-1 during pre-season (2-1 Molde, 1-1 Rubin Kazan, 0-0 Rosenborg).

Bodø Glimt - Lillestrøm ended 1-1 in 2016.

Season opener between newly promoted Bodø Glimt and the reigning Cup champions Lillestrøm.
Both sides have showed solid progress during pre-season, Bodø Glimt won 4-1 against their main rivals Tromsø, while Lillestrøm played 0-0 against reigning Champions Rosenborg last week.
This first round of Eliteserien may be interfared with snow conditions at all arenas today (except for Molde - Sandefjord as it looks right now). I think its likely that the game will be played in Bodø tonight, but the conditions should slow the game down a bit, and even though Bodø should have more experience in playing in these conditions at Aspmyra, the type of gameplay may suit Lillestrøms defensive play the best.
Under 2.5 will be my call.

Pick: Under 2.5 goals, 9/10 stakes, odds 2.00@Pinnacle. Good luck!
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Old 11-03-18, 11:26   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by meatman View Post
Hi everyone. It has been a while since I posted here but I will hope to provide the odd bit of useful information sometimes.

First I just wanted to say congratulations to mightye for a brilliant pre season and the hard work he puts in here. Fantastic stuff!

The bets that catch my eye this weekend are Start -0.25, Stromsgodset -0.75 and over 2.75, Kristiansund DNB. But I haven't decided fully yet. Best of luck everyone!

I would also like to point you all in the direction of the Nordic Football Podcast that I am part of. We have done a season preview this week, so here is a link to take a listen if you fancy it!

http://nordicfootballpod.libsyn.com/...preview-2018-1
Gread podcast, Meatman!

Also, supporting your bets here. Start is a taker for me, straight up at around 2.40. Only worry is the weather forecast. Weather is likely to be snow, heavy snow, and if so, it can favour Tromsø, coming from the Arctic parts of Norway. They thrive in conditions like this.

Stromsgodset should beat Stabæk with ease, but I don´t dare the handicap. Straight up at around 1.70 is good enough for me.
Kind of a local derby this, so it might be tighter than people think, and it is a season opener, after all.

Kristiansund DNB sound like a decent bet. VIF are not expected to do well this season, while Kristiansund got the difficult second season to deal with.
Forward Stokke must deliver also this season, as he did last, if Kristiansund is to survive. Very strong at home, and I will expect them to pick up probably close to 75% of their points at home.
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Old 11-03-18, 11:28   #10
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Interesting bet on the UNDER in Bodø-Lillestrom, Mighty.
I am leaning more towards the OVER here, as Bodø plays an expansive 4-3-3, and usually go for goals at home.
Lillestrom are a strong defensive unit, though, and it is the season opener, so I can see the reasoning. Teams are always careful in the start of the season.
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Old 11-03-18, 13:32   #11
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Molde v Sandefjord

If Molde want to be a title challenger this season then they really need to be winning matches like these with relative ease. I am not sure if MFK can launch a sustainable charge on Rosenborg this year, but I expect them to be in the medal reckoning. Their coach Ole Gunnar Solskjaer often confuses me with his tactics and team selection, but there is enough ability in this squad to do deep this season. Molde have only really lost one key player, striker Sigurdarson who bagged 16 goals last season. Replacing him is Daniel Chima Chukwu who has a good track record in this league and should go well. The big change for Sandefjord is that long serving coach Lars Bohinen has been replaced by Magnus Powell. They haven't signed many new players, but haven’t lost many either, which may be a good or bad thing.

At this stage of the season I expect Molde to win comfortably today. Well actually, at any stage of the season they should be beating sides at home like Sandefjord in all honesty. But right now the visitors have endured a poor preseason, have a few players doubtful with injury and might not be as sharp as they’d like to be. I am a bit concerned they won't hit the ground running and it might take them a while to warm up this year. One common trend in 2017 was how poorly they did against the so called ‘top teams’. This was especially the case away from home where they lost against all of the top seven. Some big defeats were handed out as well, 6-1 at RBK, 5-0 at Sarpsborg & Brann, whilst they lost this fixture 3-1. I’m going to back Molde on a -1 Asian line. According to my estimations this isn’t massive value or anything, but it's possible the gulf between the two teams right now could be bigger than even I anticipate. Molde should get the job done and at least pick up the three points.

Prediction: 3-0

Recommended bet 1 unit: Molde -1 (asian) @1.76


Start v Tromso

Newly promoted Start look like an exciting side this season. They have recruited well and in my opinion will finish the best of all the promoted sides fairly comfortably. New head coach Mark Dempsey is highly regarded and really good tactically. He will get the best of of this squad and I think they will play some nice football, attractive to watch. An opening day fixture against Tromso looks to be favourable. The visitors did very well last season after Finnish coach Simo Valakari took over at the helm, but this winter they have lost too many players and not really replaced them properly. The club isn’t great financially and can't afford to have that many good players on its books.

If this match was being played in nice weather conditions then Start would be an absolute no brainer of a bet right now. Tromso haven't looked very good pre season and I think there are some concerns in all areas of the field. The one caveat though is the weather. Conditions have been brutal in Kristiansand in the last week with loads of snow on the ground. It could snow again today, although around match time no fresh new accumulation is expected. The wind is going to be really strong and it's also going to be bitterly cold though. This could suit Tromso more but I can’t resist a bet on Start. According to my estimations, the hosts on a DNB line is massive value and I can't let this chance slip. Maybe I am overrating the home team too much they are definitely the better footballing side at the moment and a DNB handicap seems safe.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet 1 unit: Start DNB @1.77


Stromsgodset v Stabaek

I personally see Stromsgodset as the potential big challenger to Rosenborg this season. They will probably not have quite enough to dethrone RBK, but overall I think they can push the Trondheim side close. Godset look really strong in midfield and attack, whilst possessing greater depth at the back than they have in recent years. They were highly impressive in the second half of last season and are usually very strong at their Marienlyst base. A fixture against Stabaek to start the campaign looks to be a good one against a side who could be too open and exposed here. The way that both teams like to play should ensure this match is a good watch on the eye, as long as the weather doesn't interfere too much.

Snow is forecast on and off throughout the day in Drammen, although perhaps light enough that it won't affect matters too much. This is my one worry when betting on this game, but I am willing to take the risk and take two picks. The first selection is over 2.75 goals. So many times last season, Godset games contained exactly two goals, which was frustrating for over backers. But this season I think they will have more overs, simply by default because they are a better team offensively. Stabaek are a gung-ho sort of team at times and manager Toni Ordinas said that people will ‘want to watch them this season’ due to high entertainment levels. As long as cold conditions and a snowy pitch don’t affect things too much I am confident about this over. In addition, I’m going to back Godset -0.75. I just think overall they will have too much for Stabaek here and the visitors’ defence won’t be able to contain their opponents on enough occasions.

Prediction: 3-1

Recommended bet 1 unit: Stromsgodset -0.75 @1.93

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.75 goals @2.02


I also took under 2.25 in the Odd match, but I am not quite as confident about that selection. My opinion of the Bodo match is a 1-1 draw. I can see arguments both ways for over and under and I think it's a coin toss at this stage of the season! I agree with Terje that Bodo will probably be quite offensive this season and be more of an over team than under, but in the first round maybe not so open.

Good luck everyone!
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Old 11-03-18, 13:53   #12
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Interesting bet on the UNDER in Bodø-Lillestrom, Mighty.
I am leaning more towards the OVER here, as Bodø plays an expansive 4-3-3, and usually go for goals at home.
Lillestrom are a strong defensive unit, though, and it is the season opener, so I can see the reasoning. Teams are always careful in the start of the season.
I agree that we will see many Over games at Aspmyra this season, due to Bodø Glimt preferred attacking gameplay at home, and target man and clear top scorer in OBOS-Ligaen, Kristian Fardal Opseth, is surely the real deal up front.
The main reasons for going Under today is:

- Lillestrøms results against Bodø Glimt the latest years. 1-1 draws in both games in 2016, due to a more careful approach by the hosts. Clear Lillestrøm victories in several games before, and two straight home losses for Bodø against Lillestrøm before the 2016 season. Bodø coach Bjørkan has been very aware of Lillestrøms winger/attacker Knudtzons pace, and Lillestrøms strength at counter-attacks in their latest meetings.

- While the weather seem to be snow, and lots of snow in Skien and Kristiansand, its more unclear in Bodø. Either lots of snow before the game, stopping by HT (storm), or no snow at all (yr). Bodø Glimts attacking gameplay, requires quick accurate direct passing combinations, and with lots of snow, the chances for that gameplay to succeed would drop a lot.

- Lillestrøm have rarely travelled to a season opener with higher confidence in their team performance than in front of the 2018 season. They may not have a obvious star player in their ranks, "no one" has predicted them to fight for the medals this season, but Arne Erlandsens comeback as Lillestrøm coach has really impressed me. They proved hard to defeat as they won the Cup last season, and they were the better side in the latest pre-season game against Rosenborg (0-0), and kept Bendtner, Adegbenro and Helland scoreless then.

I hope Fardal Opseth doesnt get too many balls to work with, and few counter opportunities for Knudtzon, Lehne Olsen tonight, but sure, in good conditions, and if both coaches go for the win, we may see many chances by two capable sides.
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Old 11-03-18, 18:52   #13
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Great previews guys. Thanks a lot!
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Old 12-03-18, 09:42   #14
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Kristiansund v Valerenga

Kristiansund did remarkably well to finish 7th last season and they were a huge overachieving side. I think they will be in the fight to avoid the drop for most of this campaign, but they are a team who are extremely tough mentally and tend to play very well together as a unit. KBK haven’t really lost anyone of significance, bar striker Jean Alassane Mendy who went out of favour towards the end of last season anyway. They have added a few interesting new pieces to the squad, although on paper I would still say this is one of the weakest teams in the Eliteserien. Tonight, they face Valerenga who need to improve from last season and try to become a medal threatening force. A lot depends which version of VIF turns up. They were so inconsistent last season, but manager Ronny Deila seemed to find something towards the back end of 2017 when they won quite a lot of matches.

I can’t envisage myself backing Kristiansund that often in 2018, but this is a situation when I fancy them to win. The key to their success in 2017 was a strong home record. They only lost two matches in front of their own fans; against Molde on the opening day and then to bottom side Viking when they were strong favourites and basically bottled it. But usually they revelled in being a general underdog and played with great fight, passion and determination roared on by vocal fans. I expect this to be quite a tight game. Last season KBK home games started off 0-1, 1-0, 2-0, and 1-1. It was only towards the end of the campaign they had more high scoring games. Their natural way is to grind things out and frustrate teams. I don’t think Valerenga will enjoy coming here first up. There is some pressure on Ronny Deila to deliver this season and I think the VIF squad contains a few soft players, who won’t particularly relish travelling to Kristiansund on a cold dark night in early March.

In terms of match betting, I think Kristiansund DNB offers some value. According to my estimations, KBK should be outright favourites here, but instead Valerenga are given the accolade by the bookies. Taking the hosts on this handicap offers plenty of security. If the game ended 0-0 or 10-1 I wouldn't be surprised, but a refunded bet isn’t he worst outcome. I just think they will be really hard to beat at this stadium in a similar way to last season and I question whether VIF have the mental resolve to grind out a ‘tough away win’ I would say this is probably an under sort of fixture as well, although the goal line set at 2.25 @1.80 mark looks about fair. I am happy to stick with the Kristiansund DNB selection. I do worry they will suffer a ‘second season slump’ this year and be in the mixer towards the bottom, but in this particular game I think they’ll go well.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet 1 unit: Kristiansund DNB @2.07
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Old 12-03-18, 18:58   #15
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Hello guys and congrats for your amazing work in this thread, as always king Mightye the best but i see Meatman involved in Scandinavian picks,but i really i missing your fabulous picks in french 2 ligue.. Welcome..
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Old 12-03-18, 21:12   #16
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We have no chance with this match. Missed penalty by Benjamin Stokke for the draw is really ridiculous... He killed our bet.
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Old 13-03-18, 09:20   #17
meatman
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Originally Posted by Lisandri View Post
Hello guys and congrats for your amazing work in this thread, as always king Mightye the best but i see Meatman involved in Scandinavian picks,but i really i missing your fabulous picks in french 2 ligue.. Welcome..
Hoping to have the French picks back full time at the start of next season in August Lisandri!

I didn't watch the second half last night and the missed penalty is annoying. But from what I saw of this game, I have no real complaints. Valerenga looked much the better team to me and probably should've been leading at HT. They were more impressive than I expected.
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Old 13-03-18, 11:37   #18
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odd lost home is cold door
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Old 13-03-18, 11:40   #19
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can mightye tell tell which team play possession football, which team play direct football ?
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