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Old 20-08-18, 22:23   #1
WiserthantheCrowd
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Default Copa Libtertadores 2018

We're in the R16 and here are the best odds on the outrights according to Oddschecker:

5 Palmeiras
7 Cruzeiro
8 Boca Juniors
8 Santos
8 Corinthians
9 River Plate
11 Gremio
17 Racing
17 Estudiantes
19 Atletico Tucuman
21 Independiente
36 Libertad
51 Atletico Nacional
51 Flamengo
67 Colo Colo
201 Cerro Porteno

I see Independiente as real value here and have taken a larger stake on them to win the competition at these odds which I don't think are reflective of the probabilities. I think Independiente should be one of the top favorites to win this competition. Firstly, Independiente have real pedigree in this competition and have won it more than any other side (namely 7X before Boca Juniors who have won it 6X). Secondly, Independiente have a real classy squad which is also reflected in the fact that they have the 2nd most valuable squad in this competition according to Transfermarkt. (Their squad is valued at 77 million pounds right behind Boca who are valued at 105 million pounds.) Moreover, they have gotten some good reinforcements recently during the transfer period. Finally, this is a team that is well coached by Ariel Holan and that has proven itself adept at knock out competitions. They won the Copa Sudamericana in 2017 and I think they stand a good chance at winning the Libertadores this year, certainly a much better chance than current odds would seem to suggest.

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Old 22-08-18, 15:08   #2
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Yesterday evening Independiente played Santos at home and the match ended 0-0. So now the odds on Independiente to win the Copa have dropped to 34 at Bet 365. But this match is still wide open. Santos did not attempt a single shot on goal against Independiente and will have to put in a much better offensive effort in the return leg to stand a chance. However, Independiente are good travellers and have gotten good results in Brazil recently. They beat Corinthians in May and drew with Gremio and Flamenco. On the other hand, Santos have been far from convincing at home and have only won 1 of their last 6 matches at home... I don't think Santos to win the Copa at 7 and Independiente at 34 is realistic at all. At 34, I'm all in on Independiente.
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Old 22-08-18, 16:44   #3
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Worth a shoot,nice odds and reasonable arguments.It seems that they have totally outplayed Santos but failed to find the net,nevertheless 0:0 is still very acceptable.
Good luck friend
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Old 22-08-18, 16:54   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WiserthantheCrowd View Post
Yesterday evening Independiente played Santos at home and the match ended 0-0. So now the odds on Independiente to win the Copa have dropped to 34 at Bet 365. But this match is still wide open. Santos did not attempt a single shot on goal against Independiente and will have to put in a much better offensive effort in the return leg to stand a chance. However, Independiente are good travellers and have gotten good results in Brazil recently. They beat Corinthians in May and drew with Gremio and Flamenco. On the other hand, Santos have been far from convincing at home and have only won 1 of their last 6 matches at home... I don't think Santos to win the Copa at 7 and Independiente at 34 is realistic at all. At 34, I'm all in on Independiente.
I have to agree that 7.00 on Santos is very unrealistic,they have been quite poor for some time,rocking the bottom @ Seria A The atmosphere in the club is also bad.I have heard that they have financial problems.
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Old 22-08-18, 17:21   #5
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Yes, that's right. The only silver lining for them is that they have still gotten some interesting reinforcements and seem to be performing better under their new coach - Cuca. Still they're close to the relegation zone in the Brazilian league...

Crucially I just read that Carlos Sánchez who played for Santos last night still had a match left of a suspension he picked up by getting sent off in his last CONMEBOL game for River in 2015. As a result it looks likely the 0-0 score will be instead given as a 3-0 win for Independiente.

And I presume the outright market will be shortly suspended.
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Old 22-08-18, 17:43   #6
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If Independiente are awarded the win, as seems quite possible indeed even likely, I hope they will still be fired up to win or draw... Otherwise, they'd end up like San Lorenzo in the Copa Sudamericana who lost both legs to Temuco but were awarded a 3-0 home win because their opponents fielded an ineligible player... I can't see how advancing on account of an administrative error can have a positive impact on the motivation of the team. At the same time, if Independiente are awared the win, it puts some pressure on Santos and they will be even more vulnerable to counters... It also could lead to some friction within the team between the admin and the players but at the same time it could also lead them to be even more motivated to get a result... It will be interesting to see what happens here. Whatever happens, I hope the game is decided on the field. I hate bets that are decided off the field as was the case with Deportes Temuco recently or Legia in 2014 versus Celtic.
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Old 22-08-18, 17:55   #7
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So the decision now rests with Conmebol:

http://www.conmebol.com/es/conmebol-informa

After recently penalizing Deportes Temuco for doing what Santos just did, it's difficult to imagine that Independiente won't be awarded a 3-0 win.
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Old 22-08-18, 18:45   #8
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It seems that the player that was affected, Carlos Sanchez, went to play in Mexico after his expulsion in a Conmebol game. In-between there was an amnesty of some players and so there may have been some confusion as to whether he was eligible or not. In any case, it was oversight on the part of Santos to field the player but I think it would be best for Conmebol/ UEFA or whoever, to implement a system whereby clubs are notified of which players are suspended or ineligible. That way clubs with a poorer or less effective administration are not put at a disadvantage and the games are decided on the field rather than off the field.
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Old 22-08-18, 20:02   #9
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So it seems that there is a system in place in South America - it is called COMET and apparently the system did not show that Sanchez was suspended. Santos apparently took this system at face value and did not dig deeper... Anyway, if there is such a system and it did not show that the player is suspended then CONMEBOL is at fault - end of story... You can't expect clubs to hire a team of investigators every time they field a new player... This stuff's getting absurd...
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Old 22-08-18, 20:17   #10
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And it seems that the same thing also happened to Temuco. They checked in COMET but the system wasn't updated. So odds are that the same rule will also be applied to Santos. At the same time, the rules seem contradictory with one rule stipulating that the ban applies for 3 matches and another rule stating that all punishments are eliminated after 2 years. On top of that you've also got the amnesty thrown in... That's basically what you get when you've got a bunch of lawyers running the show and the rules become an end in itself rather than being predicated on common sense and a sense of decency...
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Old 22-08-18, 21:26   #11
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It seems the COMET system was only put in place in 2016. It doesn't record suspensions handed out before that date.
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Old 23-08-18, 01:01   #12
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On 2nd thought, it does not seem that extensive to research the relevant information on the internet. This is something any intern could do plus a player is obviously under obligation to maintain and disclose any relevant information. We've recently seen a couple of teams penalized for fielding ineligible players so researching whether existing or new players are eligible is something very basic that does not involve rocket science. So beyond anything else it's certainly a big administrative lapse on the part of Santos if they get disqualified... Ultimately it would be nicer to see the game resolved on the field of course. It's a shame for someone somewhere in an armchair to become the top goalscorer.
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Old 25-08-18, 06:15   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WiserthantheCrowd View Post
And it seems that the same thing also happened to Temuco. They checked in COMET but the system wasn't updated. So odds are that the same rule will also be applied to Santos. At the same time, the rules seem contradictory with one rule stipulating that the ban applies for 3 matches and another rule stating that all punishments are eliminated after 2 years. On top of that you've also got the amnesty thrown in... That's basically what you get when you've got a bunch of lawyers running the show and the rules become an end in itself rather than being predicated on common sense and a sense of decency...
Good news for the people who havent tried it.Now I could give it a try Apparently,it will be decided on the field as you wanted
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Old 28-08-18, 15:03   #14
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Actually Conmebol just issued a declaration penalizing Santos for fielding Sanchez. Thus the official result of the first leg now is 3-0 for Independiente. Having looked at the rules and the case, I can say it was the correct decision. Santos knew that the COMET system was only up-to-date as of 2016. They had previously enquired about other players but did not do so in this case for whatever reason (probably oversight). Independiente lodged a complaint within 24 hours as the rules prescribe. This case was similar to that of Deportes Temuco who also got penalized. Santos tried to compare it to that of Zuculini of River but the 2 cases were not comparable because River enquired to Conmebol about the player and were wrongly informed by Conmebol. Moreover, Zuculini played 7 games and nobody complained... Fact is that the management of Santos made a mistake and it has also happened to other clubs in the past - the rules apply to everyone - Conmebol had to penalize Santos.

Anyway, it's going to be a difficult night for Independiente in Brazil. Apparently the Brazilian fans let off fireworks and made noise the whole night at the hotel so that the players could not sleep... The stadium is sold out and the crowd will be on the edge... Hopefully there won't be any violence...

With this decision, Independiente should pretty much be through to the next round though. I can't see them not scoring and Santos putting 3 or more goals past them even if Santos line up with a 4-2-4 formation...

You're going to have to check how your bookie treats your bets on Independiente to win the Copa Libertadores. I'm still hoping that Independiente will draw or win so that the result is not ambiguous.

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Old 29-08-18, 01:39   #15
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Santos vs. Independiente was stopped in the 81st minute by the referee due to crowd violence by Santos fans with the score being 0-0. I suppose Independiente will be awarded another 3-0 score and Santos fined. In any case Independiente are through to the QF and they were clearly the better team tonight (as in Argentina)... Independiente had the better chances and were denied a legitimate penalty. They also missed a penalty after Meza was brought down by the Santos GK on a counter... I presume all bets on Independiente to win the Copa Libertadores should stand but now that they are through to the QF the odds will drop considerably.
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Old 30-08-18, 23:24   #16
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Libertad v Boca Jnrs

Clear as day discrepancy between the quality of both sides here. In typical Argentine fashion Boca were far more interested in protecting their 2-0 lead in the first leg than pounding on Libertad and ending the tie. Even though we switch to Libertad's home ground now I really don't see much advantage on their pitch as I've watched enough Libertad in Paraguay and Copa to know this team struggles mightily for goals at the best of times. Simply put they're just not that great at breaking teams down and can be horribly exposed on the counter attack with slow defenders like Da Silva in their back line. Boca have plenty of speedsters in their front line in Pavon, Benedetto and slower Zarate but legs that will carry him past this back line. In typical Argentine fashion they will set up to stop Libertad first so may not have that many chances early on with Libertad maybe happy to play it tight early, but with a 2-0 deficit will have to open up and push forward eventually so happy to take Boca on 0 AH.

Boca 0 AH @ 1.80
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Old 31-08-18, 01:46   #17
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Easy as 1,2,3...bookies really are clueless when it comes to South America.

Smalls on Palmeiras to trash Cerro.
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