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Old 25-08-18, 10:25   #1
MarianoV6
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Default Greece Super League 1st round 25-27/08/2018

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Old 25-08-18, 10:58   #2
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Olympiakos v Levadiakos - second half over 1,5 goals at 1.80

Oly's coach has already announce that he will rotate a lot for this game as some key players will be rested for the coming game against Burnley. I have no idea yet about the number or who will be rested but we keep the fact that they will rotate. We keep also in mind that Oly is a brand new team in every position on the pitch and that by football law means they will need time to to have the chemistry they need. Some things about Oly have been writing on the EL threat so you can find more there.

With AEK almost at the champions league group stage (which means they will have a heavy schedule ahead till Christmas), with PAOK also close to that but with PAOK having already a -2 points deduction since last season, with Panathinaikos being out of competition, Oly has a good chance to start well and keep it like that in order to reserve themselves in first spot of the league. Their only problem is the chemistry as i said and that they will need time for that, some ultra defensive teams that they will face in the league (plus the games against AEK, PAOK, Panathinaikos which will always be hard, home or away).

Levadiakos will be one of those defensive teams while they have a couple very fast players up front to do damage in counter attack. Other than that tho, they are not something special and maybe less stronger than last season. Coach Jose Anigo left for Panionios and it is only thank to him that they manage to avoid relegation last season (this season they are one of the teams that will be in danger).

Oly's results during summer

Olympiakos v Wattens 3-0, 2 goals at second half
FC Botosani v Olympiakos 0-5, 4 goals at second half
Thes Sport v Olympiakos 0-3, 2 goals at second half
Eupen v Olympiakos 3-2, 2 goals at second half
Olympiakos v Luzern for EL 4-0, 1 goal at second half and that's the only game with over 2,5 goals at which they didn't score more at second half
Luzern v Olympiakos 1-3, 2 goals at second half
Olympiakos v Burnley 3-1, 2 goals at second half

23 goals in total from which 16 came from three key players (Fortounis 4 Guerrero 8 Lazaros 4) and one or two might be rested.

So all in all, some rotation for Oly, a defensive opponent, the luck of chemistry, key players coming from the bench at second half for the home team... Everything is pointing at me to take this bet which is also covering a 1-1 second half result. Just in case someone wants to take a more risky Oly win second half and over 1,5 goals, which is also possible btw but why risk more? The bet is very well justified. Just have in mind that it is only the first round, not much knowledge about Levadiakos and not clear yet how many key players will be rested from Oly. You can wait if you want to see line ups tomorrow and then decide if you wanna take it. Other options which is also very wise to follow is to go live and if first half ends 1-0 or 0-0 or 1-1, then decide if you take it. If it is already 3-0 down, then no money risk and it's all good. In any way, GL!
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Old 27-08-18, 09:57   #3
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Regarding the bet, it was a bit unlucky. Olympiakos missed a penalty at the 43' of first half which would had open the Levadiakos defense. A minute later Pardo made a cross inside the box, the ball hit defender's hand but ref said no penalty. At the second half, new comer Hassan hit the post while couple of minutes later he had another good chance to score but the ball went just a bit out from the post. Levadiako's keeper was in a great day cause he made 4-5 crucial saves at second half, two of them were in one-on-one situation (the last one at the 92'+ minute ). A bit unlucky also cause a shot from Camara (i think) deflected low on a defender's feet and went also inches out. Levadiakos also scored but it was offside for half meter or so. Anyway, it can happen. The overall picture of Olympiakos was what they have shown so far, wasting the entire first half to find their steps in the pitch and at second half they are going in like they were playing football together since the last season. Same happened against Burnley as well.

Regarding today's game, there has been a correction on the market as i see since till last night Aris win was paying 3,40 which was very high. I wanted to write that but as i said, it is only the first game so it was more of a gamble for me. In general, Lamia will be one of the teams that will fight to avoid relegation at the end and i expect Aris to finish above the middle of the table. Odds yesterday were very strange but hey, this is Greece and we have see many things. In general also, Lamia is the kind of team that it is hard to beat but limited regarding quality while Aris is back at first division after 4 years, they are one of the big names in the league, they made quality signings (mostly Spanish players like their new coach is), they didn't lose a single friendly game and they will play much better football than any of the small teams like Lamia is. I will watch the game and have a better opinion for next time.

Last edited by MarianoV6; 27-08-18 at 10:00.
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Old 06-09-18, 10:59   #4
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Default End of season estimation

I will cut this in pieces and at the end i will write my estimation about final standings.

Champions
I see here three teams fighting for the title with one having a slider edge for a reason. Last season's champions AEK, last season runner up PAOK and Olympiakos are the three teams that belong to this group.


AEK is playing at champions league but with the opponents they've got, they really cannot hope even for EL qualification. Nevertheless, they still have to play those games, their players will still want to shine at CL games, so i expect that it wont work having three competitions to focus on and they will drop points at some games. Add to that that, they got the CL prize for reaching group stage (around 30-35ml) but they didn't bought any extra big quality player to straighten their team, just same old squad.

PAOK has a full full squad for all three completions (League title, Greek cup and Europa League), their goal will be to participate in all three after Christmas as well, so not fully focused at the League title. It will depend how things will go till then, cause they are able to sign any player at winter transfer.

Olympiakos is having a better team than the last few years but it is a very new team with new players in all line and with a new coach. The bet for them is when they will become an actual "team" and if their coach will manage to keep them as a team (i have my reasons for saying that).

So who have the advance, the edge? It's Olympiakos because of the schedule as the mugs decided it. he schedule is saying that every opponent will have to face PAOK, then they will have to play against AEK and finally at the next round they are facing Olympiakos. Asteras Tripolis played against PAOK in the first round, then Asteras Tripolis played against AEK and now they are playing against Olympiakos. This simple means that Olympiakos will find all their opponents at their weakest point compare to the other contenders. It is more than likely every team will lose against PAOK and AEK and also possible to get red card at those games, so Olympiakos will face an opponent with bad morale and possible with not full squad. hat's the edge i'm giving at Olympiakos.

Fourth and fifth place

The two places that will give a possible EL ticket. I see here a group of 4 teams fighting for these two spots but one to have an advance for the fourth place.

Aris is more likely for me to finish at the fourth place, they are much stronger than the other teams. Time will tell tho as they are a new team but i believe they are a serious team that will cause troubles also at the top teams.

Panionios like in the last years will find themselves also above the middle of the table mainly because of their spirit, their transfers and their coach.

Same goes for Atromitos although it's not easy this season.

Asteras Tripolis will have again a nice and tough team but they will need some time also to find their feet. Still very possible for this to happen soon and start climbing in standings.

Panathinaikos has started the season with -6 points, they didn't had the license to sign new players which is why you see their average age to be so low. They play mostly with youngsters except 4-5 players. So basically, they will luck experience but even for their age, quality will be there. However, i don't expect them to reach even the fifth place.

The save from relegation group of teams
Panetolikos, OFI, Xanthi, Giannina, Larissa, they all should avoid relegation this season.

Teams that will fight to avoid relegation
We have cover so far place from 1-13 and the tricky part is how many teams will be relegated after all and in which way this will happen. his is Greece as i have said again in the past if you expect professionalism, then you must look elsewhere to find it. He Super League is saying 3 teams will go down and 1 team will be promoted (this is because from next season, the number of team in Super League will be less). The Greek federation now on the other hand is saying that 3 teams will go down, 1 fourth team will play "play-out, 1 team from Football League will be promoted directly and 1 more team, the second, will play play out games with the fourth from Super League. A joke situation when the championship has already started and no one knows what will happen at the end to make their plans. Very typical crap

So, i stopped at the 13 spot and three more are left to complete the standings. No doubt Lamia, Apollon and Levadiakos are the three worst teams of this championship with Apollon and Lamia to be the possible two teams at the bottom at the end. If we go with 4 teams to play for relegation, then i will add Larissa from the above group.

Final standings according to my prediction (with couple of changes maybe between PAOK and Olympiakos, Asteras Tripolis, Panionios and Panathinaikos, and Larissa/Levadiakos. So far tho, it is like that for me)
Olympiakos
PAOK
AEK
Aris
Panionios
Asteras Tripolis
Panathinaikos
Atromitos
OFI
Panetolikos
Giannina
Xanthi
Larissa
Levadiakos
Lamia
Apollon

Note* Don't forget what i have been trying in the last years to warn you about, to know where you are betting your money. Corruption land no matter the whatever ''clean up'' last season, and they have already show some signs in the first two rounds. It wont be that big like in last years with Oly in charge of this corruption as it was but still....things are weird in this beautiful country full of weird people in places....
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Old 06-09-18, 11:19   #5
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Default General betting tips

- Take advance of the advance that Olympiakos has. Track down their opponents and see how their morale is and if they got any red or yellow cards (some team prefer to leave out players who have gather yellow cards and are gonna miss next games from games against Oly)

- Aris at home will be very strong, most likely over 2.5 team goals against small teams

- OFI will also be very strong at their ground, not as strong Aris will be tho. Still, at some games they will be banker

- Apollon, especially at the start, will gather the ball from their net many times.

- Panathinaikos will be a fighting team and with equal opponents or little less at away games, they most likely will go for BTS.

- Same goes for Panionios but they are little stronger so over 1,5 team goals for them also at some games.

That's all for now, some things i decided to keep them for later and not to make them public now, things will change as games go own

Last edited by MarianoV6; 06-09-18 at 11:21.
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Old 06-09-18, 13:19   #6
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Great stuff, MAriano.
Will follow this league as always,
Nice to see bog teams back (Aris), lets hope Iraklis are back soon, too.
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Old 12-09-18, 17:48   #7
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Default 2nd Round



Some notes

- AEK, PAOK and Olympiakos are playing in champions and europa league in mid week
- teams are coming from international break so some will be affected
- also, some teams will be affected for other reasons (new coach, new players)
- some have missing players, some have new transfers making their debut games
- some of the above general rules will not apply on this round
- overall, i like this round and i will take a couple of bets
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Old 15-09-18, 10:19   #8
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Some things are different now from what they were when i wrote the seasonal preview and i will explain.

Apollon Smyrnis for example sacked their coach, terminated some contracts as well with some players and started all over again. The side of the coach and the players who left is saying that the owner wanted to get involved in which players to start the game. The side of the owner is saying that the coach didn't managerial business as he signed players with low quality and they were not fit at all. I'm not gonna take any side but the blame goes always on the administration. It is typical that in lower level teams all over the world that the owner is getting involved (for more than one reasons) but why they signed the players at first place anyway when they supposedly failed at the physical tests? And yes, the fitness of the team was really bad, that is true and obvious and that's why i wrote that they will gather the ball from their net many times (and it is still on for some games ahead), but the other problem they are facing is the multi culture and multi language team they have. And now to fix things they brought a new coach from Spain with the blessing of a manager who is known to another team in this league and they signed a couple of supposedly good players (time will tell i say). The new coach Alberto Monteagudo seems decent from what i can see but i don't know him very well. In any case and with the new players that came lately (the free ones), they still will need time.

Lamia also sacked their coach, an ultra defensive Greek coach and signed Makis Havos. With their previous coach who was playing something like 5-4-1 with Barrales alone on top, that system was a disaster, it wasn't helping Barrales at all. They signed now Karamanos from Olympiakos and him together with Barrales will make a good duo up front (already showed a good sign recently in a friendly game). However and again, their overall quality wont change much, they just will have better chances as Apollon Smyrnis will have to win a couple more games.

On other general news, Aris will play start from this round to play at their own stadium as they are finishing their new improvements and their new pitch. It's one of those new technology pitches that were used in world cup games as well, a hybrid synthetic mixed with with natural grass and it's gonna be very helpful for their gaming style since they base their game in possession and partly tiki taka, it will make a lot of difference. Once they'll get used to it, my above recommendation about them scoring goals at home against weaker or equal opponents will be a must take bet.
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Old 15-09-18, 10:48   #9
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Apollon Smyrnis vs PAS Giannena

Well, i wrote above about Apollon some stuff and just to write more that Apollon has only 5 players from last season from their currently total 29 squad team The 24 players have been signed this season must be a new record lol but some of them are coming from big name teams such as Grasshoppers, Braga, AEK, Los Angeles Galaxy, Roma, Werder Bremen, Olympiakos. Some others are known for having some quality like Joel Acosta (ex ex Boca Juniors) and Defederico (ex ex ex Corinthians).

Giannina are coming in this game without their last season Pedro Conde as they sold him a couple of weeks ago and with new transfer (well, one of many) Stefanos Athanasiadis (ex PAOK striker). They will also miss forwards Pamlidis and Loukinas but the rest of new forward signings will be there to help. In general, all the attacking line of Giannina is brand new as all six have been signed this season with latest signing to be Athanasiadis who came as free player and his fitness wont be perfect. I watched their first games and my opinion is that so far, they are not stronger than last season or better, they still need time to play better. In total, Giannina has out 9 players for this game, some are important like Loukinas and Evaggelou and some are less.

I want to take my chances here and try Apollon DNB (Apolon 0A) at 1,85 as some of their players have some quality, they play at their home ground against an opponent who also has problems and maybe the new coach affect will play a role. The straight HW is also an option but more risky, i prefer this one.
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Old 16-09-18, 07:08   #10
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Apollon Smyrnis vs PAS Giannina 1-2 FT

Nuuh, i thought to take a shot with them at this round but clearly they are not ready, even with new coach and new players. They luck a lot in fitness and tactical training and so far they seem to be a group of people who have gathered to play football.

I wanted for today to go against Panathinaikos and Atromitos with similar bets (Larissa 0AH and Lamia +1,25) but in the case of Larissa vs Panathinaikos i don't trust the referee who is involved and in the case of Lamia i just think i will stay away so i wont repeat the same ''mistake'' with Apollon. Logic says tho that Larissa 0AH is the correct bet.

Maybe something live later today like corner bet for Olympiakos or something else on the other games but that's all, it's too early for me at this league to fully trust a team. Other than that, Aris live tomorrow is a must go, cheers!
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Old 16-09-18, 07:39   #11
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Btw, the three top teams PAOK, AEK and Olympiakos, will have a hard schedule from now on in their race for the title, so coaches must approach each game carefully. No waste of energy if possible and no injuries as well. Rivalry derbies and big games are coming also starting from the next round

AEK

Ajax away
PAOK away
OFI away
Benfica home
Olympiakos home
Smyrnis away (the only easy one in between important games)
Bayern home
Aris home
Panathinaikos away
Bayern away (7/11/2018 and after that it's more easy)

PAOK

Chelsea home
AEK home
Olympiakos away
Bate away
Smyrnis home (the only easy one as well)
Aris away
Vidi home
Panathinaikos home (27/10/18 and after that it's more easy)

Olympiakos

Asteras Tripolis home
Betis home
Panionios away (the easy one for them)
PAOK home
Milan away
AEK away
OFI away
Dudelange away
Smyrnis home (second easy one)
Aris away
Dudelange home
Panathinaikos home (10/11/2018 and after that it's more easy)

In theory, PAOK has the shortest tough schedule ahead, Olympiakos may have the longer tough schedule but they have two easy (in theory) games in between and AEK will find theirselves in trouble if things wont go their way. And here is when i said at the start that AEK didn't spend any of the champions league money to sign a couple more quality players.

And of course we will see some other very nice and important games ahead between Aris, OFI and Panathinaikos so no worries on betting hard yet as nice things are coming in the future

Note also that once again PAOK has hostile referees against him as already and in only three games they have denied 3 penalties, dissalowed a goal as offside which wasn't and couple more offside were giving when there wasn't any again and the player was in a position to score. Seeing the schedule now, i understand more why those things happened as the rulers of Athens reaaaaally don't want the title to go to North. F them
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Old 18-09-18, 15:19   #12
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The cup draw has been made today and added more games to the teams (as their schedule is easy as it is). And since PAOK had the most easy schedule so far, lady luck or lady cold ball added one more tough game on their way. So between AEK and Olympiakos, the local rival derby PAOK vs Aris has been added for the cup. AEK will have to play a much easier game against Lamia and same for Olympiakos as they will face Levadiakos at their first game.

First cup games for the group stage at 25-27/09/2018 which is next midweek, second game at 30-31/10/2018 and third game at 04-06/12/2018.
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Old 18-09-18, 17:54   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarianoV6 View Post
Teams that will fight to avoid relegation
We have cover so far place from 1-13 and the tricky part is how many teams will be relegated after all and in which way this will happen. his is Greece as i have said again in the past if you expect professionalism, then you must look elsewhere to find it. He Super League is saying 3 teams will go down and 1 team will be promoted (this is because from next season, the number of team in Super League will be less). The Greek federation now on the other hand is saying that 3 teams will go down, 1 fourth team will play "play-out, 1 team from Football League will be promoted directly and 1 more team, the second, will play play out games with the fourth from Super League. A joke situation when the championship has already started and no one knows what will happen at the end to make their plans. Very typical crap
Regarding to this matter, a decision came out just now from the sport court and it says that the Greek federation has right and their form of championship will go on instead of the Super League's one. This mean that 3 teams will be directly relegated this season and the fourth from the end (the 13th) will play play-off game with the second of Football League, the second division. If this decision is the final (cause you can never be sure with those mugs), this change a lot the plans of the bottom teams and of course they will be more careful at most games and fight more against equal teams to finish on top of them at the end. Every point and every goal counts for the final standings so as the teams will be more careful, the same approach needs to be taken by the bettors.
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Old 19-09-18, 14:13   #14
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For the coming derby PAOK vs AEK, Finnish referee Mattias Gestranius (with his Finnish assistants) has been appointed.

In all derbies this season it is very likely to see foreign referees
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