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Old 12-01-18, 22:28   #1
Macot
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Default African Nations Championship 13.1. - 4.2.2018

Interesting tournament, only players from local leagues allowed to play. Hosts are Morocco and it startst tomorrow with a match between Morocco and Maurethania!

Another interesting competition is starting tomorrow and it is a pretty new one... African Nations Championship. It is not African Cup of Nations that takes place on odd years...

20:45 Morocco v Mauretania

The most important rule, which is very important for understanding of this competition is that only players that play in national league system of the Nation for which they are allowed to play are able to join the team. So for instance in Moroccon team there are only Moroccan players that play in Moroccan League! That is a kind of leveller, no foreign stars, but of course some of the league are stronger than others and in our case Moroccan league, which is one of the toughest in Africa can not be compared with Mauretanian one.

Anyway this is the first important competition Mauretania qualified to. They eliminated Liberia and Mali, in both cases they surprised them with away wins. But the quality of Mauretanian football is well below Moroccan.

Morocco of course qualified for the World Cup and as said the quality of their league is a level above the guests.

Also, at the end the most important data: the competition is played in Morocco! So host nation, a strong one will play against minnows, i expect 3-0 win!

GL


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Old 14-01-18, 16:01   #2
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I like that pick.

Tonight Zambia will be playing Uganda at 20:30 and my pick is Zambia at 2.67 with Bet365 and I am very confident about this pick

These are very generous odds on Chipolopolo who have great pedigree in this competition. Uganda has never qualified for a QF of this competition while Zambia have done so whenever they played at the competition. In fact, Uganda has only 1 won game in this competition to date. Moreover, Zambia and Uganda have met 6 times in all competitions since 2010 and Zambia has won 5 of those.

Zambia has a very strong league and 2 regulars in the Ugandan NT play in Zambia namely Isaac Isinde (DF) and Joseph Ochaya (MF). Of course, these players and others that ply their trade outside of Uganda will be missing. Zambia, on the other hand, will be fielding 7 regulars who saw action in World Cup qualifying plus some substitutes.

Zambia also has more continuity in coaching. They have been led by Wedson Nyirenda who took the team to the COSAFA Cup final last July in South Africa. Uganda has a new coach, Sebestien Desabre, who took over 10 days ago.

Zambia is the clear favorite here in my opinion.
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Old 14-01-18, 16:21   #3
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Thank you, will take that. Your knowledge in African footall will be very welcome for this thread.
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Old 14-01-18, 21:44   #4
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Great pick on Zambia, I was afraid when odds started to favour Uganda, but it was really easy....

My picks for tomorrow are:

2018-01-15 17:30 Lybia vs Equatorial Guinee Latest added pick >2.5 10 2.81 Macot

2018-01-15 20:30 Nigeria vs Rwanda >2.5 10 2.42 Macot

Explanation is really easy, bookmakers are totally wrong about the way these teams play, this is a lot less expirienced group of players and they dont play like on African Cup of NAtions. Already three overs and only one under, I also expect difference in quality to play its part.
GL!
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Old 14-01-18, 22:15   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macot View Post
Great pick on Zambia, I was afraid when odds started to favour Uganda, but it was really easy....

My picks for tomorrow are:

2018-01-15 17:30 Lybia vs Equatorial Guinee Latest added pick >2.5 10 2.81 Macot

2018-01-15 20:30 Nigeria vs Rwanda >2.5 10 2.42 Macot

Explanation is really easy, bookmakers are totally wrong about the way these teams play, this is a lot less expirienced group of players and they dont play like on African Cup of NAtions. Already three overs and only one under, I also expect difference in quality to play its part.
GL!
Yes, I didn't get that and took more of that low-lying fruit. The Ugandan league just isn't at the same level as the Zambian - fitness-wise or otherwise. My suspicion is that the folks betting on this are mostly Westerners who don't know the local leagues and are assuming that this should be comparable to the NT which it isn't. Today Namibia beat Ivory Coast - the Namibian league also isn't that bad. Thanks for starting the thread! I will be looking for some more picks.

Overs certainly look worthwhile, especially on matchday 1.
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Old 15-01-18, 00:18   #6
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Very nice topic started.

Nice picks for these starting matches. Can you tell me where i can read some news regarding the team selections and rest... since i found some CAF sites are not very informative. Is there some papper/website comminted to good analyzing this competition?

What about Lybia to win this match in first round? 1.70 odd for home win seem to be payed very good?

And what about Nigeria....almost they all come under 2.5?
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Old 15-01-18, 01:39   #7
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Morocco won 4-0. Nice one Macot!

So later today we've got 2 games:

Equatorial Guinea vs. Libya

Equatorial Guinea's NT consists almost exclusively of foreign-based players. So this squad will be newly-assembled. Equatorial Guinea is a very small and oil-rich country and the squad has its own trainer (not the same one that trains the NT) so they have put some effort into this. However, Libya who won this competition in 2014 is surely favored in this contest since their NT consists mostly of locally-based players who will be at this competition. Libya is a very defensively-oriented, low-scoring outfit - in recent matches they played 0-0 four times consecutively. Libya should be favored to beat the debutants with no experience at this level and this could be an underish match. I could see this ending in a low-scoring Libyan victory. Since their league isn't very prominent and there aren't any recent results for this squad, it's difficult for me to rate Equatorial Guinea. They're a bit of an unknown quantity really.

Nigeria versus Rwanda

With the exception of 1 of their goalkeepers, Nigeria's NT is foreign-based. The local league is not bad (although it's not the best either) but there are a lot of talented players in such a big country obviously. The team will be supervised by Gernot Rohr who will lead the team to the World Cup. Players that stand out have a chance of breaking into the 1st team (and attending the WC). This may provide the Nigerians with some added motivation. Rwanda's NT consists mostly of locally-based so that they can draw upon the spine of that team. The problem is that they are not in very good form and have gotten some poor results in recent matches. They're very defensive and low-scoring, unfortunately for them they have also been conceding a lot of goals. The Rwandan league is pretty poor by African standards and they would not be at this competition if Egypt (which may have the best league in Africa) had not withdrawn thus creating an unexpected opening for them. If Nigeria play cohesively and unleash their counter-attacking football, they should easily beat Rwanda and they could also maintain a clean sheet if they neutralize Mbumbyi who is the only real goalscoring threat Rwanda have. If we see overs today, it looks more likely in this match.

A good resource for African football is Sandals for Goalposts:

https://sandalsforgoalposts.com/

Good luck!

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Old 15-01-18, 11:20   #8
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Hi guys,

just a question: what is the purpose of this competition? The final victory is so important, or it would be a "showroom" for the players?

Because in this second case, IMO the result is in second line for each team, and it's more probable that we can see open matches every day.
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Old 15-01-18, 11:32   #9
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It's a chance for locally-based players to showcase their skills. There is obviously a lot of media coverage and agents are watching. Good players may get lucrative offers. For some players, it may be a chance to break into the first team. For other squads that are mostly playing with their regulars like Zambia and Libya it's all about winning.
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Old 15-01-18, 14:26   #10
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Thanks Wise!
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Old 15-01-18, 17:15   #11
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Libya totally dominating Equatorial Guinea. It makes a difference when you come with the core of your NT and play against guys who haven't got any real international exposure either with the NT nor their club sides. Besides these guys don't have very much experience of playing together.

So later today we have Rwanda versus Nigeria coming up. The Rwandans are showing up with the core of their NT but are a rather poor side. Nonetheless, Rwanda should be largely cohesive and the big question is how good the Nigerians will mesh. If they come prepared, it should be an easy win. But that's an IF for me right now.
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Old 15-01-18, 21:27   #12
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One over won and one lost today, due to high odds that means nice profit. For tomorrow I simply reccomend the same. So far 4 overs/2 unders and Burkina Faso are a team I am sure will play offensive football.

2018-01-16 17:30 Angola vs Burkina Faso >2.5 10 2.66 Macot

2018-01-16 20:00 Cameroun vs Congo Latest added pick >2.25 10 2.38 Macot
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Old 15-01-18, 22:13   #13
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Rwanda was able to sit out a scoreless draw against Nigeria but WOW was that lucky. Nigeria had more than 20 shots on goal compared to Rwanda's 2 and they hit the woodwork 3 times. This match should have gone into overs. But that's the way it can go...

Concerning Angola versus Burkina Faso tomorrow, I see value in Angola DNB at 2.4. I also like BTS at 2.2. At present betting markets are favoring Burkina but I think that may be too generous to Burkina. It is true that Angola didn't look very convincing in qualifying against Mauritius and Madagascar but the players had a busy schedule and for them other competitions assumed priority. Moreover, both Mauritius and Madagascar have made great improvements in recent years so they are no longer as weak as they once were. These 2 sides have met 6 times and have a pretty even record (all of their meetings were related to AFCON not the African Nations Championship). Of the 6 matches, Angola won 2 while Burkina won 3... The Burkinabe NT is exclusively composed of players abroad so this will be a completely different side to the one Angola lost to 3-1 in June last year in Burkina Faso for AFCON qualifying. The Angolan NT, on the other hand, is mostly composed of locally-based players. 6 of their regulars play in the Angolan league which I'd also rate as stronger than the Burkinabe. For the Angolans that have been convened this is a real opportunity to break into the NT and that may give them added motivation although it also has to be said that this event definitely is less prestigious for the regulars than AFCON or the WC... On the downside, it also has to be mentioned that Primero de Agosto, the Champions of Angola, successfully campaigned for their players not to go to this competition. Angola also recently hired a new coach in December, Srdjan Vasiljevic, so that preparations for this competition were not extensive. Morever, Burkina knocked out Ghana on their way to Morocco and they have a good trainer in Drissa Saboteur who is a former national player and has led the NT successfully before. Nonetheless, I don't think Burkina deserve to be favored here.

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Old 16-01-18, 15:39   #14
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Highlights of Nigeria vs. Rwanda:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1h5kJVDRgH8
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Old 16-01-18, 20:52   #15
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General picks: Morocco vs. Guinea

0
Posted by Macot (2018-01-16 20:35 CET)

Well, now we had two classical 0-0 draws in last two days when I took overs, it does not help that dominating teams Nogeria and Angola managed 20+ shots and all kind of chances, they were not able to convert them.

But this time we once again count on quality and also rely on the current situation in the group. Home team Morocco managed a good starting win over the poorest team in the group (4-0, Mauretania). On the other side, Guinea surprisingly lost against Sudan (1-2), both games ended as overs.

Now the most important fact is, Guinea will need to go for a win here otherwise they won`t depend on themselves anymore. They need all three points and against hosts it won`t be easy.

I expect both teams to score here, Morocco is a solid team, but Guinea are not as bad, either. My call is Morocco to win 2-1!

GL


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Old 17-01-18, 21:49   #16
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For tomorrow, I will take a double of bets on Zambia and Over 2 goals (odds on overs are ridicoulous still, although there are some teams that won`t score in 270 minutes of football, but Zambia surely are not one of those....).

1/18/2018 17:30 1/17/2018 22:42 Ivory Coast - Zambia General picks >2.0 Macot Edit
1/18/2018 17:30 1/17/2018 22:44 Ivory Coast - Zambia (-0,25) AH General picks A Macot Edit

http://www.bettingadvice.com/league/general-picks/120
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Old 17-01-18, 23:10   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macot View Post
For tomorrow, I will take a double of bets on Zambia and Over 2 goals (odds on overs are ridicoulous still, although there are some teams that won`t score in 270 minutes of football, but Zambia surely are not one of those....).

1/18/2018 17:30 1/17/2018 22:42 Ivory Coast - Zambia General picks >2.0 Macot Edit
1/18/2018 17:30 1/17/2018 22:44 Ivory Coast - Zambia (-0,25) AH General picks A Macot Edit

http://www.bettingadvice.com/league/general-picks/120
Your picks make sense. I think there may also be value in taking Uganda to beat Namibia and certainly Uganda DNB. Namibia isn't that weak but they're not at the same level as Zambia for example. On balance, I'd rate Uganda as the stronger side in that contest.
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Old 24-01-18, 13:42   #18
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Congo vs Angola
draw - @1.90
I haven't seen such low odds for a draw in football yet. If both of these teams get at least one point today, they will advance in the tournament. However, I don't think that they'll go for 0:0. They should pretend to play, you know... So, I'll try this:
over 2.5 goals / draw - @18

I was also looking for over 1.5 goals / draw but I didn't find it anywhere.

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Old 24-01-18, 13:47   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeanPrice View Post
Congo vs Angola
draw - @1.90
I haven't seen such low odds for a draw in football yet. If both of these teams get at least one point today, they will advance in the tournament. However, I don't think that they'll go for 0:0. They should pretend to play, you know... So, I'll try this:
over 2.5 goals / draw - @18
Then you didn't follow Italian Seria A 5-6 six years ago. I remember some odds like 1.50 or lower.

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Old 24-01-18, 15:13   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeanPrice View Post
Congo vs Angola
draw - @1.90
I haven't seen such low odds for a draw in football yet. If both of these teams get at least one point today, they will advance in the tournament. However, I don't think that they'll go for 0:0. They should pretend to play, you know... So, I'll try this:
over 2.5 goals / draw - @18

I was also looking for over 1.5 goals / draw but I didn't find it anywhere.
I think that this will be one boring game, both are struggle to score and Angola score only one goal so far.

Kongo not to score and Angola not to score @ 5,40 [local]
0:0 CS @ 5,40 [local]

online bookies slashed odds ......
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Old 24-01-18, 16:56   #21
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General picks: Burkina Faso vs. Cameroun

0
Posted by Macot (2018-01-24 17:44 CET)

These are the highest odds I ever saw in my life on Over 2 goals... and odds on over 2,5 are @3,50 and more! And I don`t see the logic behind it.

OK, of course this competition is more or less underish, but in the last round in things get different: in previous three groups teams played for nothing in the first two and unders there obviously showed their (non)interest. In the third groupd though there were things to be decided and we saw an over and an under, which were both logical.

Now we do have a team here that must be motivated: Burkina Faso needs to win by three goals to have a chance to promote to the next round. So, they have motivation and will play accordingly, at least I expect so. I see no reason why they would play defensively.

So, these odds don`t go with my analysis, could be the biggest value ever. My call is 3-0!

GL


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Old 24-01-18, 16:59   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dex View Post
I think that this will be one boring game, both are struggle to score and Angola score only one goal so far.

Kongo not to score and Angola not to score @ 5,40 [local]
0:0 CS @ 5,40 [local]

online bookies slashed odds ......
Yes, this looks 0-0 all the way, a draw is good for both and the way they play here, suggest this result. But the other match could be a scoring one and odds for over 2,5 goals are 3,50???? I never saw that and Burkina if they wish to have a chance need to win by three goals difference. So I guess at least they will try?
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Old 31-01-18, 13:28   #23
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I consider Morocco as the future winner of ANC. They look really solid. @1.63 for their today's win against Libya is what I take. Libya had one less day to rest + they played 30 minutes longer than Morocco. Moreover, remember that this game will take place in Cassablanca, Morocco. Today's winner will play in a final on Saturday - also in Cassablanca.
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Old 31-01-18, 15:33   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeanPrice View Post
I consider Morocco as the future winner of ANC. They look really solid. @1.63 for their today's win against Libya is what I take. Libya had one less day to rest + they played 30 minutes longer than Morocco. Moreover, remember that this game will take place in Cassablanca, Morocco. Today's winner will play in a final on Saturday - also in Cassablanca.
Libya is nothing special here and I think that Morocco can score at least two goals in this game

Morocco over 1,5 @ 2,20 [local]
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