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Betting strategies/psychology/money management Strategy theory, psychology discussions, everything to do with a bettor's mind! NOT records though, see other subforum for that.

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Old 16-10-17, 22:10   #1
allthethings
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Join Date: Nov 2007
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Default Massive odds drop: bet with it or against it?

My question is just about your general feel for this situation, which Iíve seen twice in the past two days, and Iím wondering also whether thereís a good database that backs up one or the other strategy.

Okay, Sunday. Iím a fan of backing underdogs, and Iím a big fan of Swedenís Div 1 (the third league). Enskede, a side that have been just demolished this season in general and this month in particular, are home to Assyriska, which not long ago were in Superettan. Enskede are about 3.5, but my book doesnít have odds until about half an hour before the match, and then only briefly. I watch the average odds go to about 5.00 on Bet Explorer, and I miss it. Meanwhile the odds on +0.5, which donít disappear, go from +2.02 to 3.05, but the book never changes it to +0.75 or +1. I take +0.5 at about 3.0, giving up that theyíll post up the 5.0 ever. Final score Enskede 3-0.

Today. Iím kind of liking Helmond away at Jong AZ, a side I think donít rate that highly. Helmond are having an awful season though; theyíre priced about 4.05. Suddenly, half an hour before the match, odds shoot up until Helmond are about 4.85. I briefly consider it, but pass. Final score AZ 1-3 Helmond.

So...those could have gone either way, right? In each case there was something speaking for the dog...Enskede at home with Assyriska unmotivated as the season winds down. Helmond not as bad as theyíve shown early. Just my take. But in both cases the market just went crazy for the favorites, to the point that I wondered if they were reacting...overreacting...to some bit of news I didnít know.

Thoughts? Thanks.
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