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Old 13-04-18, 17:04   #1
susukino
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Default J.League 1 R8

J.League 1 R8:


Kashiwa Reysol – Consadole Sapporo:

Reysol are in good form with 3-2-1 on their last 6 and are scoring a decent amount of goals as well lately. At home they got 2-1-1, but they have met relatively strong teams so far.

Consadole needed a last minute winner from Tokura to secure all 3 points at home vs Shonan last round which means their good form is still intact. They are playing some impressive football too and love to counter-attack so I think we could be in for an open game here with chances at both ends.

Reysol are expected to control the play, but their at times shaky defence will get their hands full vs the quick offensive players of Consadole. Goals at both ends therefore seems very likely, and the Over 2,25 looks extremely promising to me.

Reysol are favorites but in their current form Consadole seem capable of go neck and neck with even the best teams in the league, but it’s still too early to trust them in a tough away-match like this so no bets on the HCP.

Reysol Expected Starting Lineup:
4-2-3-1:
1Kirihata*
13Koike – 4Nakatani – 22Park – 5Nakayama
37Hosogai – 7Otani
14Ito (K) – 10Esaka – 15Kim
9Cristiano (I)

Injuries/Suspension:
GK Nakamura (I)
DF Kamata (S/R)
MF Tetsuka (S/R)

Team Strength:
94%

—————–

Consadole Expected Starting Lineup:
3-4-2-1:
25Gu
35Shindo* – 20Kim – 5Fukumori (I)
14Komai – 27Arano – 10Miyazawa(I)– 38Suga
18Chanathip(I) – 41Miyoshi
9Tokura

Injuries/Suspension:
DF Kikuchi (R)
DF Kawai (/S/R)

Team Strength:
98%

—————-

Prediction: 2-1 or 1-1

Bets:
Over 2,25 @ 1,86 (30 units)

Kashima vs Nagoya Preview:
https://japanese-football.com/2018/0...agoya-preview/

Nagasaki vs Gamba Preview:
https://japanese-football.com/2018/0...gamba-preview/

Cerezo vs Tokyo Preview:
https://japanese-football.com/2018/0...tokyo-preview/

Vegalta vs Kawasaki Preview:
https://japanese-football.com/2018/0...asaki-preview/
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Old 13-04-18, 23:06   #2
f1ght3r
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Thanks for your input, susukino, much appreciated.

Tezuka was a key player in midfield until he got injured but with the arrival of Hosogai he cant be considered a regular anymore imo. I think Kashiwa's team strength with these missings is about 96% as both keepers are equally average, like 99% of the GKs in Japan.

Sapporo playing different and decent footie under Petrovic. Not a great squad, although they do have some pace (Suga/Chanathip), experience and some clinical players like Bothroyd and Tokura. Overall a very balanced squad but they play too much possession with short passing and a lof of players go up and out of position. The team is lacking defensively but compensating with offense (so far). Kashiwa as usual prefer swift attacks and are struggling when they get the ball and play against defensively well set opponent. Ito, Cristiano, Hosogai, Bo Kyung provide a good mixture of decisiveness, pace and creativity which is why they dont like opening up, its a rigid tactic. The current Sapporo likes to move around a lot which makes them a good match for Kashiwa and their style, as long as the central midfielders Otani and Hosogai have a good game. In my opinion, quality wise, especially defensively Kashiwa is superior and thats why I think we'll see a fair bit of mistaken passes on the part of Sapporo and Reysol can be deadly on the break. However, should Sapporo decide to defend and not go forwards everytime but pick their opportunities wisely then I think they'd have a chance. Unfortunately, knowing Petrovic, that is very unlikely and this game could turn into a fast paced one in the opening 30 minutes or until Kashiwa take the lead. Of course, there's the possibility of Sapporo opening the score but I dont think its as likely as the former, given conservativeness is Kashiwa's specialty (imo). Should Kashiwa score first I think they will fall back and focus completely on counters which will make it tough for Sapporo to return the goal. Kashiwa isnt scoring enough but is doing fairly well in J1 while Sapporo has overperformed in terms of goals in some games, and underpeformed in other. Its clear that they are not stable yet and this represents a good opportunity for a good host like Reysol to take all 3 points.

In my opinion, rather than a bet on goals, its better to take Kashiwa @ 1.97 2-0 is my call
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Old 13-04-18, 23:35   #3
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Odds on Kashima - Nagoya are so properly set I simply cant see any value in taking anything. The Antlers play slower and more calculated than last year, dont think they'd go for thrashing. Nagoya seems to have become well aware of their defensive problems and wont open up. However, Kashima are just better and should win, even taking into account current injuries. Xavier is just too big of a miss for Nagoya to expect anything special from them either. For me, that game is a no bet. 1-0

Nagasaki's home games have all been BTS and in each of them there was at least 1 goal in the 1st half. What's more they have taken the lead in 3 out of 5 games at home and have scored in every home game too.. even against usually tough defensively FC Tokyo, Tosu and Shonan plus against one of the top teams in J1 Urawa. Away from home a similar story.. scored in all but 1, took the lead in 2, in 4 out of 5 there was a goal before HT, though away form isnt all that relevant to today's game, it shows their attitude at least. Frankly, I doubt its that much different at home seeing how they are newly promoted and of below average quality overall, they will be underfogs in 2/3 of the games anyway. Gamba with those injuries.. kind of limited offensively but at least they (finally) have a good, offensive minded manager. The problem is their midfield isnt all that young and agile while up front, especially now, there arent (m)any talented players, all average. Still, Gamba has scored a fair bit of goals, even away from home and against good teams, teams better than Nagasaki. It hasnt been going their way at home but the effort was there. Gamba seem to struggle against good, determined defenses and teams that prefer to disrupt the tempo. I dont think Nagasaki have the ability to force them out of their comfort zone, especially considering V-Varen are looking to score and win some points. In games Nagasaki are involved often a goal is scored in the 1st half which opens up the game. Gamba have not found their groove yet so i think the hosts have a chance.. and this game could become open throughout. I think O2.5 @ 1.97 is worth a shot here. 1-2

Last edited by f1ght3r; 13-04-18 at 23:59.
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Old 13-04-18, 23:46   #4
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Cerezo - Tokyo looks like a rather boring game played at slow tempo, lots of fouls perhaps as well. Two physical teams who prefer to play conservatively face each other in a game they'd rather not lose. Both can be dangerous from set pieces but goals from set piece situations are always a bit lucky imo. Both teams have a goals average of 3.00 so far but that's misleading, makes you think they like to play open games which isnt true at all. Tokyo's average in particular is very inflated by the 2-5 win away at Nagasaki and the 3-2 win at home against Gamba, thats 12 goals in 2 games out of 7 which leaves us at 2 goals average per game spread over the remaining 5 games, not promising at all. Cerezo on the other hand has more BTTS and overs spread evenly but you can notice that they do what they need to in order to win, sometimes it requires you to score 2. You dont see them going for 2-0 even when favourites, they go for a 2nd once they concede an equalizer or are trailing. Their defense though isnt world class and makes stupid mistakes when under pressure but Tokyo risking it and putting pressure on Cerezo? It doesnt make sense. I think we're in for a very cagey game, most likely decided by 1 goal or will end in a draw. 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 likely so the odds on under 2.5 are decent.. if you are not afraid of free kick goals/corners that is. I personally would rather stay away
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Old 13-04-18, 23:58   #5
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Kawasaki have been doing badly so far perhaps due to participation in the ACL but now that its over, maybe they will up their level, maybe. Sendai has been a good opponent for Kawasaki over the past few years. Its a game Kawasaki usually dominate both at home and away. Vegalta have been doing very well so far but their quality is nothing special and i reckon they wont be able to stay that high up in the table for long. The good thing about Sendai is they play balanced football but are generally lacking clinicality. Midfield and creativity has been their particular weakness over the years and Kawasaki are great at exploiting that disadvantage. Counter-attacking specialists are a bad match for Kawasaki and there are a few in J1 but Sendai isnt one. The hosts also dont score enough to prove a threat for Kawasaki. However, the same can be said for Kawasaki right now, although the ACL distraction is out of the way now and things should start to change. The problem is there is no proof of that yet and all we have is h2h and squad quality as arguments for away win which for me isnt enough, considering away win is priced at just 1.75 at the moment. A bet on goals doesnt make sense either considering the low goals average of both teams so that's another game i'd rather skip and not bet on its one Kawasaki can and should win though. 0-1
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Old 14-04-18, 04:32   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f1ght3r View Post
Thanks for your input, susukino, much appreciated.

Tezuka was a key player in midfield until he got injured but with the arrival of Hosogai he cant be considered a regular anymore imo. I think Kashiwa's team strength with these missings is about 96% as both keepers are equally average, like 99% of the GKs in Japan.

Sapporo playing different and decent footie under Petrovic. Not a great squad, although they do have some pace (Suga/Chanathip), experience and some clinical players like Bothroyd and Tokura. Overall a very balanced squad but they play too much possession with short passing and a lof of players go up and out of position. The team is lacking defensively but compensating with offense (so far). Kashiwa as usual prefer swift attacks and are struggling when they get the ball and play against defensively well set opponent. Ito, Cristiano, Hosogai, Bo Kyung provide a good mixture of decisiveness, pace and creativity which is why they dont like opening up, its a rigid tactic. The current Sapporo likes to move around a lot which makes them a good match for Kashiwa and their style, as long as the central midfielders Otani and Hosogai have a good game. In my opinion, quality wise, especially defensively Kashiwa is superior and thats why I think we'll see a fair bit of mistaken passes on the part of Sapporo and Reysol can be deadly on the break. However, should Sapporo decide to defend and not go forwards everytime but pick their opportunities wisely then I think they'd have a chance. Unfortunately, knowing Petrovic, that is very unlikely and this game could turn into a fast paced one in the opening 30 minutes or until Kashiwa take the lead. Of course, there's the possibility of Sapporo opening the score but I dont think its as likely as the former, given conservativeness is Kashiwa's specialty (imo). Should Kashiwa score first I think they will fall back and focus completely on counters which will make it tough for Sapporo to return the goal. Kashiwa isnt scoring enough but is doing fairly well in J1 while Sapporo has overperformed in terms of goals in some games, and underpeformed in other. Its clear that they are not stable yet and this represents a good opportunity for a good host like Reysol to take all 3 points.

In my opinion, rather than a bet on goals, its better to take Kashiwa @ 1.97 2-0 is my call
I don't really rate Kirihata as a goalkeeper, and he's never held a regular starting spot despite already being 30, so I think there's a big difference between him and Nakamura who at the age of 23 is already a regular member of the Japan NT and most likely the next no.1 for Japan.

Tezuka (sorry, not Tetsuka which I read it =) ) and Kamata are only Squad players these days (S/R rating) so their absences doesnt really mean much but I still think Nakamura's injury weakens them atleast 6%.

Also, I don't like how Reysol are constantly changing their back four, and seem to be new changes in this one as well with Nakayama set to play as left-back instead of Yun etc so I can easily see Consadole score atleast 1 goal.

Nonetheless, it should be an interesting match!
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Old 14-04-18, 04:34   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f1ght3r View Post
Cerezo - Tokyo looks like a rather boring game played at slow tempo, lots of fouls perhaps as well. Two physical teams who prefer to play conservatively face each other in a game they'd rather not lose. Both can be dangerous from set pieces but goals from set piece situations are always a bit lucky imo. Both teams have a goals average of 3.00 so far but that's misleading, makes you think they like to play open games which isnt true at all.
This is very true, and definitely no bets for me either in this one.
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Old 14-04-18, 12:08   #8
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Kashiwa's old weakness showed again.. this team and their inferiority complex is just ridiculous, i can never figure them out, honestly. They are simply unable to control any game, even ones they gain advantage in. Especially against teams who know how to put pressure by controlling the ball. I thought Sapporo are not ready yet and Kashiwa has the chance to edge them out but no.. they couldnt even do that. Then in their next home game against Urawa they will do the opposite and win lol, typical.

And then there's Gamba lol, losing 3-0 to Nagasaki but well, with those missings in attack I'm not surprised they were unable to win but 3-0 is a bit.. just shows they'd rather open up and try to score instead of mostly defense+counter like last season. Sadly, I dont think that brazilian coach will stay there for long enough to make good profit out of overs in their games
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Old 14-04-18, 12:15   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by susukino View Post
I don't really rate Kirihata as a goalkeeper, and he's never held a regular starting spot despite already being 30, so I think there's a big difference between him and Nakamura who at the age of 23 is already a regular member of the Japan NT and most likely the next no.1 for Japan.

Tezuka (sorry, not Tetsuka which I read it =) ) and Kamata are only Squad players these days (S/R rating) so their absences doesnt really mean much but I still think Nakamura's injury weakens them atleast 6%.

Also, I don't like how Reysol are constantly changing their back four, and seem to be new changes in this one as well with Nakayama set to play as left-back instead of Yun etc so I can easily see Consadole score atleast 1 goal.

Nonetheless, it should be an interesting match!
Tezuka was very composed on the ball, he really gave them a bit of edge so yeah, he is important imo but they've had many games without him and the recent results are relevant to the current situation, we can only theoretize what could've been with Tezuka in about the GK.. this is a huge problem in Japan but I'm sure you're aware absolutely 0 goalkeeping technique - crap reflexes, the way they stretch for the ball, the way they punch.. ways off. The only criteria for me is how tall one is (in Japan) because at least they can get high balls and MIGHT stop a shot or two under the bar. So for me its very hard to rate any keeper in j1, not only Kirihata. Well, my problem overall with Kashiwa, and its been that way for years, is that i think they are a solid team which isnt true. They are rather poor both in terms of quality and in terms of money, 6-8 place level but because they win some games they shouldnt.. and play in ACL from time to time i get misled. I remember writing posts about them before and tip them to win or o2.5 and very rarely get it right. I guess i need to put a little more thought about how and why i rate them the way i do Sapporo on the other hand is the surprise package and shows how important manager philosophy is in Japan. Their games are quite entertaining to watch this season

Last edited by f1ght3r; 14-04-18 at 12:18.
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Old 15-04-18, 00:26   #10
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right, about today's games i'll post my leans in case someone decides to place a bet, though i doubt anyone even reads this thread

shonan +0.25 @ 2.15
iwata BTTS @ 1.90
urawa u2.5 @ 2.00
kobe o2.5 @ 2.05 , kobe +0 @ 2.07

shonan is a defensive minded team, likes to ruin opponents' game plan. its a team that is thinking conservatively even when trailing. they dont have quality and rely on spirit and teamwork. hiroshima are better, higher expectations but not the same team away from home. they dont have great wingers and their strikers are just efficient sometimes, not very versatile overall. solid defensively away from home, not exactly the case at home because they take more risks looking to reap rewards, in this case, wins. i think this will be a pretty close encounter, under also likely but odds not great at all. maybe under 2.00 is also worth a shot? i dont think we will see more than 2 goals given how both of these teams like to play

iwata has scored a fair bit at home and played teams stronger than tosu but lost 0-3 to kawasaki. away they've been relatively solid defensively but importent offensively. it shows they have a home team attitude and always give it their all at home so you can expect them to play direct football, not necessarily open though but direct. tosu has a lot of btts games and lost the majority. they have scored in 7/10 games in all competitions and have not kept a single clean sheet. well, you could say all this points towards a home win but the truth is iwata is not a top half team, they are mid-table at best and you cant expect a team like them to maintain a solid defense and attack at the same time. tosu have proven two things - they can score if they try but dont seem to be able to keep a clean sheet somehow

urawa having an underish season and that's for a reason. the new manager prefers slower tempo and less risk. add to that the fact their form is not exactly great and have had some missings.. things dont look very bright. they struggle against teams that dont open up, the reds dont seem to be able to break them. shimizu is a faceless team that plays balanced football. you literally cant say they have any strength or a weakness but that's perhaps what makes them hard to beat. if they dont have something to play for, like now when its early in the season, they prefer to play it safe since the goal is to remain in j1 after the season's end. both teams seem unable to score whenever they want and prefer to get a positive result rather than outplay their opponents. cant say there are players present in any of the teams right now able to turn the tables by themselves. a game that should be decided by one goal is how i see this one

kobe are unpredictable because they have a good offense but dont fully utilize it. decent midfield and defense but somehow that doesnt work out either. teams are wary of their offensive potential even though kobe fail to utilize it fully so far. yokohama have been a good but not great team for a few years now. there are some players on that team who could be game changers but the overall approach taken is not one to dominate a game, they are more reactive rather than proactive. kobe i could say somewhat sucks against reactive teams but i think here the more potent offense will decide the game, although the stats so far show the opposite (they have 4 clean sheets each out of 10 games played in all comeptitions). kobe have a slight advantage in that aspect taking into account their approach and individual quality up front but yokohama should be able to answer properly with their reactive approach. hoping the current scoring form of both would continue today
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Old 15-04-18, 02:56   #11
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Nice profit on Reysol-Consadole yesterday but lost both bet on Vegalta-Kawasaki so overall not the best day for pre-game bets.

Here's for Sunday's matches:


Jubilo Iwata – Sagan Tosu:

Iwata suffered a 0-2 loss away against Gamba last round but were playing pretty good prior to that. They are not scoring too many goals and have in fact only scored in 2 out of 7 matches so far this season.

Sagan on the other hand are one of the most over-teams in the league so far with plenty of goals both for and against. 5 out of 7 matches have gone over 2,5 and Sagan have scored in 6 out of 7 games so far. Key FW Ibarbo is set to start on the bench, but his replacement Tagawa have done well too with 2 goals to his name so far.

So it’s under vs over, but I find some decent value on the Over 2,25 and will back that with a medium bet. Iwata got some good offensive players and it’s only a matter of time before the goals start rolling in and against a team like Sagan chances should come.

Expected Starting Lineup Iwata:
3-4-2-1:
21Kaminski
4Shinzato – 3Oi(I) – 41Takahashi
5Sakurauchi – 23Yamamoto* – 7Taguchi – 6Guilherme
10Nakamura(I) – 19Yamada*
20Kawamata

Injuries/Suspension:
MF Musaev (R)
MF Adailton (I)

Team Strength:
91%

——————

Expected Starting Lineup Sagan:
4-3-2-1:
20Gonda (I)
13Kobayashi – 3Takahashi – 5Kim– 23Yoshida
4Harakawa – 36H.Takahashi – 6Fukuda
9Choi– 40Ono
28Tagawa*

Injuries/Suspension:
GK Akahoshi (S/R)
FW Ikeda (S/R)

Bench:
FW Ibarbo (K)

Team Strength:
94%

——————

Prediction: 2-1 or 1-1

Bets:
Over 2,25 @ 1,97 (20 units)

Marinos vs Kobe Preview:
https://japanese-football.com/2018/0...-kobe-preview/

Urawa vs Shimizu Preview:
https://japanese-football.com/2018/0...imizu-preview/

Shonan vs Hiroshima Preview:
https://japanese-football.com/2018/0...shima-preview/
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