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Old 20-04-17, 17:18   #1
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Default My MLB Projected Lines, Analysis and Picks 2017

Hi,

I will share my baseball info, information, views, previews, analysis and projected lines here with you.
I will try to give at least one good analysis here, but you can also watch my videos with my comments about all games.

It's about sharing good info, so you can make your own bets. Baseball betting requires extreme discipline. Most of my bets are around 1% so far. I am not asking anyone to tail me but am just sharing my advice. I have no interest in hearing someone whine if they follow me and lose. I owe you nothing and I do this for fun. When it isnít fun anymore, I will stop posting. There are better handicappers out there than me and before you want to send me negative response or hate private message, think twice if you need this. Time is valuable, spend your 5 minutes for something else, than sending me negative messages after every loss. If you think that I am bad, simply pass away or start your own topic and show us your thoughts on baseball betting.

Projected Lines - 20.4.2017 (Video)


I will try to write one random analysis every day, so you can take those information and make your own pick. Writing analysis takes some time and the odds can drop. In dynamic betting world, which is faster and faster it is very important to be quick and writing analysis will be dead in the future. But I believe, that you can take some info from my numbers and you can make your own bets. I also believe, that many of you are much better and much talented than me. But I will do my best and hopefully I will share some good info.

I wish you all the best in MLB 2017

NY METS (Syndergaard) vs PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Nola)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Bookmakers have Philadelphia as big underdog here and there is a reason for that, because NY Mets will play with Noah Syndergaard, who is one of the best pitchers in the game right now. We can find Philadelphia at around 2.70 and based on my numbers, they are little bit underrated. I have projected, that Philadelphia should be underdog of around 2.16. In other words, if I play play on Philadelphia, I would expect, that bookmakers will pay me 1.16 units of profit if Philadelphia wins. They pay me more (+0.54 units more) and because of that I have some value with them. Letís see if there is a reason for that.

Match Up
NY Mets will start with Noah Syndergaard, ERA 0.95 to the season, 20 strike outs in 19 innings and only 2 earned runs so far. Amazing numbers. He also has very good numbers against Philadelphia hitters as they combine batting average of only 0.185 against him.

Philadelphia on the other side will start with Aaron Nola, who has been very good too. ERA 3.27, 13 strike outs in 11 innings and only 2 walks. He pitched against Washington, who is playing really good right now and he had pretty tough schedule, but he still pitched well and I think if he can continue with the same pitching we can see another very close game.

When we talk about bullpens, Philadelphia is higher ranked bullpen so far this season, but right now but bullpens were shaky so far. Philadelphia ERA 5.18, NY Mets ERA 3.81, but bad whip of 1.571.

Philadelphia scores 4.7 runs per game so far and they score 5.2 runs per game on the road. NY Mets on the other side score 4.5 runs per game and 4.6 runs per game against right handed pitchers. And based on current numbers, Philadelphia is better offensive team so far in 2017. Better batting average and I rank them little bit higher so far in 2017, especially against right handed pitchers.

Reason for pick
So, what we have here? We have very good pitcher with Mets and the odds are set mostly because he is dominant and he also has very good numbers against Philadelphia. But on the other side we also have very good pitcher. Nola's 13 strike outs in just 11 innings against Washington is not bad. Even his skilled interactive ERA is pretty same than Syndergaard number. But the game is not only starting pitching and most bettors underestimate bullpens and hitters. And in this part of the game I donít see any huge advantage by the Mets. In fact based on my numbers, Philadelphia is little bit better offensive team right now. We can expect, that Syndergaard will go around 6 innings and Familia could be back for the Mets, but if Nola can pitch like he did in first two games, I think the game could be decided in last 2-3 innings and I think both teams can win. I still have projected, that Mets have 53.7% of chance in this game, but this is still much less, what bookmakers think. Because of that I think we have a value with Philadelphia and i think that they can win this at the end. Note also, that majority of bettors will be on NY Mets too. If you like to play small on underdogs and if you like to go against the public, then Philadelphia is my recommendation.

Play Philadelphia (small)


Other recommended underdogs: SD, MILWAUKEE, CIN
Some recommended favs: HOU, BOS
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Old 21-04-17, 14:21   #2
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Projected Lines and analysis - Friday, April 21 (Video)

Colorado (Chatwood) vs San Francisco (Cueto)

San Francisco Giants will play against Colorado Rockies and both teams will send out good pitchers on the mound and the total of 10.5 seems little bit too high. I have projected the total of around 7 runs.

Johnny Cueto is one of the best pitchers in the game and he started this season well. 18 strike outs in 19 innings and ERA of 3.79. Donít be fooled with ERA, because ERA doesnít show everything. But his whip is 1.211 and he is 8-2 against Colorado. In 13 starts against Colorado he posted ERA of 2.25 and he also played against them this season. He allowed only 2 runs in 7 innings.

On the other side we have Chatwood, who is on ERA 3.54, whip of 1.033 and struck out 16 batters in 20 innings this season. He is 6-3 against San Francisco with ERA of 2.54. He also pitched against them this season and guess what - he didnít allow any run in 9 innings. He allowed only 2 hits in 9 innings.

Both teams are struggling against right handed pitchers at the start of the season. San Francisco scores 3.4 runs per game against RHP and Colorado 3.4 runs per game vs RHP too.

And when we talk about bullpensÖ Colorado didnít have good bullpen until this season and a lot of bettors will fall into a trap if they will continue to play overs on Colorado like in last years. Their bullpen ERA is 2.62 and is among the best in the league. San Francisco has traditionally good pitching stuff and I even rank their bullpen lower than Colorado. But still their ERA is 3.35.

There is no logical reason to play over 10.5 in this game. Of course anything can happen. Pitcher can have bad day, hitters can have good day, but if we stick with the facts, the total of 10.5 is simply too much!


Play Under 10.5 @1.83 at William Hill
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Old 22-04-17, 20:11   #3
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Saturday - 22/4/2017

Milwaukee vs St Louis


My Projected Lines and the odds
Milwaukee lost yesterday and they are very nice surprise this season so far. I know, that they can not keep this too long but right now, they are money. 9-9 to the season and if you bet on them blindly so far, you would make around +3 units of profit. Bookmakers set them as underdog again, but odds dropped from +110 (2.10) to -105 (1.95), but I still think we have a value with them. I have projected that St Louis should be much bigger underdog (+190) and with Milwaukee we have nice value right now.

Match Up
Milwaukee will start with Anderson, who pitched 3 games so far and he has amazing start to the season. ERA 1.50, 16 strikeouts in 18 innings and whip of 1.000.

St Louis will go with Lynn, who also pitched three games this season and in his only road game 4 ER in 5 innings with 4/4 K/BB. Yes, he has some good numbers against Milwaukee (7-2, ERA 2.42), but I think we have at least even match up here, because on the other side we have red hot Anderson.

Bullpen is on Milwaukee***8217;s side so far this season. Their ERA is 3.32 compared to St Louis ERA 5.96. And when we talk about ERA at home and away so far this season***8230; Milwaukee ERA at home is 2.90, while St Louis ERA on the road is 6.75.

Milwaukee scores 4.8 runs and they have couple of red hot hitters right now. Thames is leading home run hitter in whole MLB. He has 8 home runs so far. St Louis hitters are still little bit cold and right now is the chance to take advantage with Milwaukee. St Louis scores 3.5 runs per game.

Reason for pick
Milwaukee is one of the hottest teams right now. I know, they can not keep this run too long, but right now is the time to play them, because they are underrated. In this game, there is no pitching advantage. Lynn has good numbers against Milwaukee, but he will face red hot Anderson, who has better bullpen behind him too. Milwaukee is currently better scoring team and we have this game at even money.
Play Milwaukee @1.95
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Old 25-04-17, 17:17   #4
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Projected Lines - MLB Tuesday, April 25

White Sox (Covey) vs Kansas (Duffy)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Bookmakers opened White Sox at around +125 (2.25) underdog, but the odds already dropped to around +115 (2.15), despite majority of bettors will probably be on Kansas today and their red hot pitcher Duffy. However, baseball game is not about starting pitcher only, but we must also include other factors. I have projected, that Kansas should be underdog and not White Sox. I give White Sox around 58.9% of chance and I expect, that if I play them, that bookmakers will pay me around +0.70 units for my 1 unit risked. They offer me more. Around 1.20 units for my risked unit and this is around +0.50 more, what i would expect. Because of that, I have some value with White Sox. Letís see, if there is logical reason to play them tonightÖ.

Match Up
White Sox beat Kansas yesterday by 12-1 and right now they are one of the best hitting teams against left handed pitchers this season. They score 6.3 runs per game against left handed pitchers with batting average of 0.304. They scored 8 home runs in 204 at bats.

Kansas on the other side is bad bad team so far this season. They score 2.5 runs per game and against right handed pitchers, they are even worse. 2.4 runs per game with batting average of 0.195.

Kansas will start with their red hot pitcher Danny Duffy. Lefty pitcher who has ERA of 1.32 and is 2-0 to the season, but with such a run production by his team it is only a matter of time, when he will lose. Not only, that he plays in front of very bad offensive team, he also plays with bad bullpen support. Kansas City Royals bullpen is the worst in the league so far. ERA 5.90 and on the road even worse (ERA 7.68). He can go 7 innings, but he will also face couple of White Sox players, that have some good success against him in the past. Fraizer has 2 home runs against him and batting average of 0.286, Abreu has 1 home run and batting average of 0.323 in 31 at bats, Soto has 2 home runs in 6 at bats, Sanchez batting average of 0.429 in 14 at bats,...

White Sox on the other side will start with Dylan Covey, who struggled so far this season and White Sox will not have any starting pitching advantage here. That is for sure. His ERA this season is 7.84. Both road games and he lost both games too. However, there are three things, that I like here. First is that, he didnít face any Kansas hitter yet and when hitters and teams didnít face a pitchers in the past, this is usually advantage for pitchers. Secondly, he has better bullpen, so he will probably get better support than Duffy on the other side. At least it was so, this season. White Sox bullpen is among the best so far this season with ERA of 1.76. And of course, he will play at home. This will be his first home game this season, which could be extra motivation for him after two bad road games.

Reason for pick
White Sox are better team right now and they are especially good against left handed pitchers. They beat lefty yesterday and couple of players from current White Sox lineup have good numbers against Duffy. I believe, he can go around 6 innings if they put some pressure on him. After that, Kansas will not have any advantage, because White Sox are better hitting team and they have better bullpen too. The only concern is White Sox starting pitcher, which is the most important player, but he will also face the worst hitting team right now and this is his chance to put some solid pitching together tonight. With White Sox we have better overall team so far this season, better bullpen, team in better form and in very good situation (vs LHP).
I will take them because of all these reasons and also because there is some value based on my model, which predicts win%.

Play White Sox @ 2.26
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Old 27-04-17, 15:30   #5
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Projected Lines - Thursday April 27

Detroit (Verlander) vs Seattle (Iwakuma)

Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners will play the third game of this series, where we saw a lot of runs (36 runs in two games).

Detroit won the first game and Seattle won yesterday, but we will see a nice pitching duel today. Tigers will start with Justin Verlander, who lost 2 road games, but was excellent in only home game this season. He went 7 innings and allowed only 3 hits, 0 earned runs. He has 22 strike outs in 22 innings and 11 walks. His record versus Seattle is 10-8 with ERA of 3.25 and whip of 1.161. Last year he faced them two times and in both games he did really well. He went 7 innings in each of those games and allowed only 3 runs.

Iwakuma on the other side will start for Seattle. He didnít impress me this season. He has more walks than strike outs (10/9) and he also doesnít have good numbers against current Detroit lineup. They have batting average of 0.317 against him in 97 at bats. In last game in Detroit he went only 4.7 innings and allowed 11 hits and 5 runs.

Both teams are playing some very good offensive baseball right now and Seattle scores 5.5 runs per game against right handed pitchers, while Detroit 6.2. This number is affected because of that game, when they score 19 runs, but still, they good batting average of 0.279 against right handed pitchers, while Seattle 0.254.

Bookmakers have Detroit as a small favourite and you can get them at around 1.80. I have projected, that Detroit will have around 67% of chance and my fair odds on them are 1.50. With 1.80 we get more and because of that there is some value for me.

I like Verlander over Iwakuma. Better pitcher, better offense so far this season and both struggling bullpens, I think we have nice price on Detroit as a small favorite here.

Play Detroit @1.80
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Old 29-04-17, 14:05   #6
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Projected Lines - Saturday April 29

Cincinnati (Arroyo) vs St Louis (Leake)


My Projected Lines and the odds
Bookmakers have Cincinnati as an underdog of around +160. Based on my math model, I have projected for this game, that Cincinnati should be an underdog of around +122. I projected that Cincinnati has around 45.1% of chance to win this game and St Louis around 54.9% of chance. If I take Cincinnati I would expect that bookmakers pay me at least $1.22 for my every $1 risked. They would be me more ($1.60) and because of that I have value based on my math model. Letís see if there is any other reason to take Cincinnati here...

Match Up
After slow start to the season, St Louis came back nicely with 9 wins in last 11 games. They beat Toronto in last series and they beat also Cincinnati in the first game of this series.

They will send Mike Leake on the mound. He is former Cincinnati player and he started this season pretty well. 20 strike outs in 27 innings with ERA of 1.32. He walked only 4 batters. But here is one interesting thing. He is 0-3 against his former team and his team is 0-5 in those starts. And if we check hitter vs pitcher numbers, he doesnít have the best numbers against Reds hitters.

Their batting average against him is 0.307 in 113 at bats. Cozart, Hamilton and Duvall have the best numbers against him and Duvall has 2 home runs.

Cincinnati on the other side will start with Bronson Arroyo, who is back this season. His ERA is 6.68, but we all know, that ERA doesnít tell us everything. He has 16 strike outs and 5 walks in 21 innings pitched. In the last game he pitched much better, when he struck out 7 Cubs hitters and went 6 innings, where he allowed only 3 hits. He also has some solid numbers against St Louis hitters. Their batting average against him is just 0.220 in 127 at bats.

When we talk about bullpens, Reds bullpen has been better so far this season and I even rank them 4th best so far in 2017. Their ERA is 3.33 with whip of 1.151. St Louis bullpen on the other side was not so impressive. Their ERA is 5.27.

Cincinnati scores 4.7 runs per game, 5.3 on the road and 4.9 against right handed pitchers. St Louis on the other side scores 4.1 runs per game, 3.9 at home and 4.5.

Reason for pick
I still think, that St Louis is better overall team and they have better chance to win. But the odds donít represent the true chances based on my analysis and based on my numbers. First of all, I would expect, that Cincinnati should be smaller underdog. Secondly. Arroyo pitched well in the last game and he has much better numbers against Cardinals, than Leake against his former team. In fact Leake doesnít collect any win yet against his former team. He will also face couple of players, that have good numbers against him.

I donít see any advantage in the offense and bullpen has been better with the Reds so far. I think +160 is little bit too much on Cincinnati, this is why Cincinnati is recommended as 1 unit play.

Play Cincinnati @2.60
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Old 01-05-17, 17:55   #7
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Projected Lines - May 1, 2017

Houston Astros (Mccullers) vs Texas Rangers (Cashner)

Houston Astros just beat Oakland yesterday and they are the best team in American League so far. They are 16-9 and they score 4.5 runs per game. Today they will face right handed pitcher and they score even more against them (4.8 runs).

Texas on the other side is 11-14 this season and they score 4.6 runs per game and 4.4 runs per game against right handed pitchers. However, runs per game donít tell us everything. And I rank Houston hitting as top 5 and Texas hitting below average.

Houston will start with Mccullers, who has been pitching well this season. 36 strike outs in 29 innings. At home ERA 1.83 (3 games) and whip of 0.966. The only thing I donít like about him is that he is 0-3 against Texas, but still, I think we will have pitching advantage here, because Cashner on the other side didnít impress me yet this season.

His ERA is 2.94 so far, but donít be fooled by ERA, because ERA doesnít tell us everything. His walks per strike outs ratio is 13/8 in 15 innings pitched this season. In other words, he walks almost one hitter per inning.

Bullpen is on Houston side. ERA of 2.91 so far is among the best in the MLB. Texas bullpen struggled so far with ERA of 4.96 and on the road 0-3 bullpen record and ERA of 6.49.

My projected lines has Texas as a much bigger underdog here. I have projected that Texas should have be underdog of around +450 and because of that we have small value with Houston.
Better pitcher, better attack and better bullpen.Take Houston.

Play Houston -1.5 @1.980 Pinnacle
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Old 11-05-17, 18:19   #8
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MLB Analysis - May 11

Cincinnati (Arroyo) @ San Francisco (Blach)

My Projected Lines and the odds
We can still get Cincinnati at around 2.15, which is still I think too much based on current season performances and also based on my projected odds and winning percentages. I have projected, that San Francisco should be an underdog of more than +200 (3.00) and bookmakers have them at around 1.87 right now. I have projected, that Cincinnati Reds should a favourite of around 1.45m which is pretty big difference and this is qualified as my 4 unit play. So, letís see if there is any other reason to support my model...

Match Up
San Francisco Giants are struggling this season. Even that game yesterday, they should lost, because Mets have couple of chances with runners in scoring position before the end of the game and Giants were trailing whole game. Mets closer lost that game yesterday, Giants just took his bad pitches. But this was just one game and tells us nothing, but if we take their performance this season, they are just 12-23, they score 3.3 runs per game.

Definitely one of the reasons for this bad results is a lot of important injuries, including Bumgarner, their best pitcher. They are 4-14 against right handed pitchers and they are just 6-8 at home.

Cincinnati Reds on the other side have even better road record than Giants at home. They are 18-15 to the season, 6-5 on the road and they score 5.2 runs per game. Against lefties (this is what they will face today), score even more (5.8 runs) and when we talk about bullpens, Cincinnati bullpen is very good this season (ERA 3.26) and one of the best on the road (2.20).

San Francisco bullpen ERA is 4.43 and at home 4.64.

Cincinnati will start with Bronson Arroyo, who has good record against San Francisco. He is 8-5 lifetime against them with ERA of 2.60. He also won against them in the only game in 2017.

San Francisco on the other side will start with lefty Blach, who has ERA of 6.00 to the season, but the biggest concer I think is that he doesnít strike out hitters. He has only 3 strike outs in 15 innings and even more balls (4) than strike outs. He played one game against Cincinnati this season and they hit him hard. In just 3 innings he allowed 11 hits and 10 runs (8 ER).

Reason for pick
So, what we have here? We have team with winning record, who won 8 of last 10 games and will start with a pitcher who has good lifetime record against San Francisco. We have a team, that has very good bullpen and we have a team that beat San Francisco couple of days ago in all three games outscoring them by 31-5 in runs. This team is Cincinnati.
And we have a team, with the worst record in whole MLB. We have a team, that is missing couple of important players and we have a pitcher, who will play for them, who was just badly beaten by Cincinnati.
And who is the underdog here? Cincinnati. Win or lose, we have a nice value with Cincinnati.

Play Cincinnati @2.10
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Old 16-05-17, 15:48   #9
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Kansas City Royals (Hammel) vs NY Yankees (CC Sabathia)

Projected Lines and Analysis - May 16th

My Projected Lines and the odds
Bookmakers have NY Yankees as a small favourite and of course, there could be little bit more action than would I expect 10 days ago, when Kansas was struggling. Why? Because Kansas won 4 straight games and 6 out of last 7. Yankees on the other side lost 4 out of last 5.

But still, if we stick with the facts and with the numbers this season, I still think Yankees are much better team. Based on my projected numbers and projected winning percentages, Yankees should be favourite of around 1.48. I give them around 67.8% of chance. Bookmakers have them at around 1.85-1.90. Because of that, I have a value with Yankees.

Match Up
Sabathia will pitch for Yankees. He has been struggling in last few games, but on the other side we have struggling pitcher too. Sabathia ERA in last 3 games is 10.34 and he walked 8 hitters in last 15.7 innings.

On the other side Hammel allowed 4 home runs, 22 hits and walked 6 in last 16 innings. His ERA in last 3 games is 6.75.

We have both struggling pitchers, but what I like about CC Sabathia in this match up is that he has very good numbers against current Kansas players. In fact, they struggled against him in the past. In 80 at bats, their batting average is 0.188. Alex Gordon, who saw Sabathia the most, is batting only 0.161 against him (31 at bats). Sabathia didnít allow any home run against any of current Kansas hitters.

Hammel on the other side also faced couple of Yankee hitters and they have much better success against him. 99 at bats, batting average of 0.283 and 2 home runs. Holiday, Castro and Ellsbury have batting average of more than 0.300 against him.

When we talk about bullpens, there is advantage on Yankees side as they have one of the best bullpens in MLB.

And when we talk about the offense, Yankees score 5.7 runs per game, Kansas only 3.2 runs per game. Kansas is 4-5 against left handed pitchers with 2.8 runs per game. Yankees are 16-11 against right handed pitchers with 5.7 runs per game.

Reason for pick
Yankees are better team and with both struggling pitchers I like Sabathia past numbers against most hitters from Kansas lineup. I can not say this for Hammel, who struggled against couple of hitters from Yankees in the past.
Yankees are still better hitting team and they also have better bullpen. I give them much more chance, than bookmakers offered. In other words, I would expect, that the odds on Yankees would be lower.
Because of all that and statistics that I used for my projections, Yankees are the right play!

Play Yankees @1.88 (Sabathia)
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Old 17-05-17, 16:25   #10
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Projected Lines and Analysis - May 17th

Detroit Tigers (Fulmer) vs Baltimore Orioles (Jimenez)

Baltimore beat Detroit yesterday in a high scoring game by 13-11, but I believe, that they will have much tougher job here against Detroit. First of all, I have projected, that Detroit has around 65.1% of chance to win this game. My projected odds for this games are 1.54 for Detroit and 2.87 for Baltimore.

Baltimore will start with Jimenez, who has struggled against Detroit in his career (6-11, ERA of 5.72) and Detroit hitters have combined batting average of 0.288 against him in 205 at bats. They saw him a lot of time and Detroit key players have very good numbers against him. He suffered the most against Martinez, who has 4 home runs against him and against Cabrera, who has 1 home run and batting average of 0.319. Not only, that he struggle against Detroit, he also struggle this season (ERA 6.75 in 6 starts).

Detroit on the other side will start with Fulmer, who is playing really well this season. 4-1, ERA 2.54 to the season and he also have very good numbers against Baltimore hitters (36 at bats, batting average against him = 0.194).

I think we have nice pitching advantage with Detroit today. Both teams can score and because my math model also supports this game, I think Detroit is the right play here.

Play Detroit @1.71
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Old 18-05-17, 18:09   #11
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Projected Lines and Analysis - May 18th

Texas (Perez) vs Philadelphia (Pivetta)

My Projected Lines and the odds
The public will be on Texas again today, but the odds already dropped from +140 (2.40) to around +129 (2.29) on Philadelphia. And I totally agree with this line movement as I also give better chance to Philadelphia. I have projected, that Philadelphia will have around 53.4% of chance in this game and my fair odds would be 1.87 on Philadelphia and 2.15 on TexasÖ. So with the Phillies I have a value.

Match Up
Texas Rangers beat Philadelphia in two straight games and they also won 8 straight games. I am the only person who is going against the streak, because baseball is streaky sport and usually I rather go with the streak than against it. But in this situation I think many bettors will overreact with Martin Perez on the mound.

Martin Perez will start for Texas Rangers and his ERA is 3.89 and this is much better than Pivetta on the other side, who has ERA of 6.13. But ERA doesnít tell us everything and if we go deeper with the analysis, Perez is not pitching that well. In 44 innings he has 28 strike outs and 22 walks. He also allows more than a hit per inning (55 in 44 innings).

Philadelphia on the other side will go with Pivetta, who has ERA above 6 but he struck out 16 hitters in 14 innings, which is much better then Perez on the other side.

If we check hitting situation in this game, Philadelphia scores 4.9 runs per game against lefties with batting average of 0.251, while Texas score 4.7 with batting average of 0.237.

Reason for pick
A lot of bettors will be fooled by Perez numbers, but he will face a team, that score 4.9 runs against lefties and I have Philadelphia as above average team against left handed pitchers. I donít see any pitching advantage here, in fact I donít trust Perez and I think Philadelphia can hit against him. I also donít see any attack advantage, because Philadelphia is playing much better against lefties and this is good situation for them. My math model supports this play and I think Philadelphia as an underdog of more than 2.20 (+120) is a good play.

Play Philadelphia @2.37 (bwin) or around 2.30 (bet365, 5Dimes, Pinnacle,...)
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Old 22-05-17, 17:52   #12
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Projected Lines and Picks - May 22

CUBS (Lackey) vs SAN FRANCISCO (Blach)

My Projected Lines and the odds
The public will be Cubs today and the odds already dropped little bit. Right now, we can get Cubs at around 1.52, which is still more than I have projected. I have projected, that Cubs will have around 77.4% of chance to win this game. My projected odds on them are 1.29. Because of that, we have some value with the Cubs.

Match Up
Cubs won 4 out of last 5 games and we expect some more games like these from last years champions of course. Their bats are hot right now as they score 8.2 runs per game in last 5 games. They score 5.2 runs per game to the season at home and they score 6.6 runs per game versus lefties (they will face left handed pitcher today).

San Francisco Giants are 7-3 in last 10 games, but I still donít trust them, especially on the road and in the games, where they will have pitching disadvantage. They score only 3.4 runs per game to the season and 3.6 runs per game versus right handed pitchers 8they will face right handed pitcher today).

Cubs will start with Lackey, who is 4-3 to the season and in last 3 games he is pitching better too. 49 strike outs in 47 innings pitched this season is much better than Blach on the other side, who has only 9 strike outs in 29 innings and 7 walks.
Blach, who will pitch for San Francisco has ERA of 4.03 and will face today one of the best teams in the league. In his only road game this season, he pitched only 3 innings and allowed 8 runs.

Reason for pick

Chicago Cubs are red hot and they bats are hitting some runs lately. This is exactly what I need in this one. They will face left handed pitcher, who didnít play well in his only road game this season, when he allowed 8 runs in just 3 innings. San Francisco is also one of the worst hitting teams in the league and they lost 9 out of 10 games in Chicago in last 3 seasons.

Play Cubs (Lackey) -1.5
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Old 27-05-17, 16:50   #13
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Saturday - 27.5.2017
Projected Lines and Analysis for all games - 27.5.2017 (Video)

NYY vs Oakland

Oakland beat Yankees yesterday and they are on a nice run right now, winning 5 of last 7 games. Yankees on the other side lost 5 out of last 8 games. They are still playing good baseball, but this is the time to go against them. Especially when I saw lineups.

Oakland will start with 9 right handed hitters (1 switch hitter) and Sabathia could have a lot of problems today. In three home starts this season he has ERA of 7.41 and he allowed 4 home runs and 19 hits in 17 home innings.

Cotton on the other side has road ERA (3 starts) of 2.60 and he struck out 19 batters in 17 road innings.

Oakland has winning record against left handed pitchers this season and I have them as second best hitting team if we take only last 14 days. They are playing good right now and despite the majority of bettors will be on Yankees, odds already started to drop on Oakland.

Take Oakland (Cotton) @2.35
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Old 13-06-17, 22:43   #14
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Cleveland Indians (Bauer) vs LA Dodgers (Kershaw)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Public will be huge on LA Dodgers and of course there is a reason for that - Clayton Kershaw, probably the best pitcher in the world last couple of seasons. Bookmakers also set the Indians as a pretty big underdog at home. They set the odds of around 2.50 on Cleveland. However, I think, that this is little bit too high on Cleveland. I have projected, that this game could be much closer. My math model has Cleveland at 2.12 (+112) and I give them around 47.1% of chance in this game. I expect around 1.12 units if I bet 1 unit on Cleveland Indians and if they win. Bookmakers have them at around 2.50 and because of that I get more. This is just qualified value bet for me.

Match Up
Clayton Kershaw is pitching well and it is very hard to hit against him. ERA of 2.20 to the season and despite he has one loss in his only game against Cleveland, we can ignore that game, because it was in 2008.

On the other side we have Trevor Bauer, who will pitch for Cleveland Indians and he is 5-5 to the season with ERA of 6.1, but as I said many times, ERA is not goof future predictor and he is pitching much better. After all he has 76 strike outs in 62 innings and his skilled interactive ERA is much better (3.66 in 2017). In the last game at home, he pitched well - he struck out 14 Oakland batters, but then he had two bad outings on the road.

When we talk about bullpens, we have two top bullpens in the league. The only question is how deep will Kershaw go. He is pitching in average 6.9 innings per start. On the other side Bauer will probably go 5-6 innings (5.9 innings per start at home).

LA Dodgers score 4.8 runs per game, but on the road 4.2 and their road batting average is lower on the road too. In last 7 games, they score only 3.7 runs per game.
Cleveland on the other side are still not playing like we expect from them, but season is still long and they still have a lot of power in their lineup.

Reason for pick
LA Dodgers score 3.7 runs per game in last 7 games and today they will play without Adrian Gonzalez one of their most experienced players. We all know what we can expect from Kershaw, but also Bauer is pitching much better at home and I don***8217;t see any bullpen or hitting advantage in this game. If he can repeat the last home game I think we have an open game at the end. We must not forget, that Cleveland is still last years finalist and one of the top teams in the league, despite, they didn***8217;t show everything yet. Based on my projected numbers, they should be lower underdog and this game could be much closer.

Play Cleveland as a home underdog @2.70

Last edited by Underdogchance; 13-06-17 at 23:06.
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Old 19-06-17, 23:22   #15
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Projected Lines and Picks - June 20th

Texas vs Toronto

My Projected Lines and the odds
Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers will repeat series from last year playoffs and the public will be on Texas despite we have a risky option with Texas pitcher, who pitched only 11 inning so far this season. I have projected, that Toronto should have around 63.2% of chance to win this game. And this gives me the odds of 1.58 (-172) on Toronto. Bookmakers give me much better odds on them at around 1.85 (-117). Because of that I have mathematical value with Toronto. Letís see if there is any other information, that supports this play.

Match Up

Toronto Blue Jays will start with Marco Estrada, who lost last 3 games and his ERA is 12.08 in these games. On the first look very bad, but he also struck out 14 hitters in 12 innings. Based on SIERA numbers and his performance his ERA numbers need some adjustments. And if we take into account very good numbers, that he has against Texas Rangers, he could have a good game today. He is 4-1 against Texas and their hitters have combined batting average of only 0.208 against him. He also played against them this season and he pitched 6 innings, where he allowed only 1 run and struck out 8 Texas hitters.

On the other side we have unexperienced pitcher, who has 32 years and he just started pitching this year in MLB level. Austin Bibens-Dirkx pitched 11 innings so far and has 4 walks and 4 strike outs. He pitched only 2 games and he allowed home run in each game. SIERA numbers suggests, that he needs some regression and his SIERA is 6.08, which is much higher than Estradaís on the other side (3.25).

I am sure, that Toronto will have pitching advantage with starting pitcher, but even if we take a look at bullpens, Toronto is better. Their ERA is 3.85 to the season, while Texas ERA is just 4.73. I have Toronto as top 5 best bullpen and I have Texas as below average bullpen in the league.

Reason for pick

Both teams have some offensive potential and I would not decide which team is better in hitting, but if we check pitching match up, I think we have advantage with Toronto. Better and more experienced pitcher, who has great past success against Texas and their hitters. And on the other side we have unexperienced pitcher who has the same numbers of walks and strike outs. My math model is on Torontoís side and I agree with the model. Better pitcher, better bullpen and pretty same offence.

Play Toronto
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Old 27-06-17, 22:11   #16
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Cincinnati (Adleman) vs Milwaukee (Guerra)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers will start a series and it looks like majority of bettors will be Milwaukee side. There is probably couple of reason for that and one of those is that Milwaukee is 8-5 in last 13 games, while Cincinnati won only 2 games in last 13 games. Bookmakers still set Cincinnati as a favourite here and Milwaukee as an underdog. We can get Cincinnati at around 1.79. Based on my predictive model, I have projected, that Cincinnati should have a chance of around 60.7% to win this game and because of that my projected odds on Cincinnati are at 1.65 (US odds -155). Bookmakers offer me 1.79 on Cincinnati and because of that there is calculated vale for me with the Reds.

Match Up
Cincinnati beat Washington 2 days ago and then they lost another game against St Louis on the road. I mentioned, that they have only 2 wins in last 13 games, but we must also include home/away factor here, because Cincinnati played all those games on the road and the only series in this stretch was at home against top team - LA Dodgers. Those road games were tough for them, but at home they have winning record of 19-18.

Cincinnati will start with Adleman, who is 4-4 to the season with ERA of 4.43, but he has winning home record of 3-1 with ERA of 4.15. Seven Milwaukee batters saw him in the past and combined 23 at bats and batting average of 0.174.

On the other side we have Junior Guerra, who is 1-1 to the season with ERA 3.11, but donít be fooled by his ERA numbers, because those numbers donít show us the whole picture about this pitcher. His BB/K ratio is just 22/27 in 37.7 innings pitched this season. In last 3 starts he allowed 3 runs in each game and he walked more than he struck out. Not only, that he struck less than he walked, but he also walked 13 hitters and allowed 4 home runs in last 18 innings.

Reason for pick
Cincinnati struggled last weeks, but they also had pretty tough schedule. They played most of the games on the road and the only home series in this stretch was at home versus Dodgers. And we all know that Dodgers are the best team in National League and second best in whole MLB (W-L record). Today they will face a shaky pitcher, who walks a lot of hitters. Cincinnati has winning record at home, they score 5.5 runs per game at home, which is more than Milwaukee in this situation (road: 4.5). Cincinnati scores 5.1 runs per game versus right handed pitchers, while Milwaukee 4.6. And when we take into account that Milwaukee has slightly weaker bullpen in this situation, I think that we have a bet on Cincinnati for this price. Not big play, but I think Cincinnati above 1.77 is a good play for 1 unit.

Play Cincinnati @1.79 Pinnacle
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Old 15-07-17, 21:14   #17
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Video with comments about all games - Saturday 15.July 2017

NY Mets (Lugo) vs Colorado (Chatwood)

NY Mets beat Colorado yesterday by 14-2. A lot of runs and their bats were hot. On the other side Colorado scored only 2 runs and we might see old story here again. They struggle in Citi Field and their Coors Field numbers need some adjustments here. In last 15 games at Citi Field, Colorado lost 12 of them.

Colorado will start with Chatwood, who struggled in last 3 games. ERA of 6.32, 15 walks and 13 strike outs. And a lot of people will be fooled by his good numbers against Mets (3-0 record), but if we check last two games (both from 2016), he pitched 14 innings and had 7 walks compared to 8 strike outs.

Mets on the other side will start with Lugo and he is also not playing well, I know that, but Colorado doesn***8217;t saw him a lot. Only 6 at bats and this is always small pitcher advantage. If we take into account, that he will play on 5 days rest and Mets are 5-1 in last 6 games with 5 day rested Lugo on the mound, I think he can do well.

I have projected, that Mets have around 67-68% of chance to win this game. Bookmakers set this game at 50-50 and I think we have a nice value with Mets here.

Play Mets with Lugo on the mound @1.97
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Old 16-07-17, 17:13   #18
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Sunday Projected Lines and Picks - 16.7.2017
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Old 17-07-17, 15:59   #19
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Kansas (Vargas) @ Detroit (Zimmermann)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Detroit Tigers beat Blue Jays yesterday and they won 3 out of last 4 games. They will face Kansas City Royals on the road with Vargas on the mound. Kansas beat Texas yesterday by 4-3, but that win is just only one in last 6 games. The bookmakers opened Detroit as huge underdog of around 2.40 (+140), but then they adjusted the numbers and the odds dropped to around 2.15-2.20. Some bookmakers still have Detroit Tigers at 2.30. And all those numbers are value numbers based on my predictive model. I have projected, that Detroit has 50.5% of chance to win this game and Kansas City 49.5%. Basically 50-50 game and if you can get the odds around 2.20, there is some value with Detroit today.

Match Up
Detroit score 5.2 runs per game against left handed pitchers, which is their best situation. And not only, that they score more against lefties than against righties, they also have very good numbers against Jason Vargas, who will start game for Kansas. In 149 at bats, they have 9 home runs and batting average of 0.297 against him. Upton, Cabrera, V. Martinez, Avila and Kinsler, they all have batting average of more than 0.300 against him in the past. And those players are key players for Detroit Tigers. If they can continue with good numbers against Vargas, he could have long day.

On the other side we have Zimmermann, who will start the game for Detroit Tigers and Kansas score 4.1 runs per game versus right handed pitcher. And in last 7 games, they scored only 3.3 runs per game. Zimmerman is 2-0 against Kansas in his career and last year when he faced them he struck out 13 Kansas hitters in 14 innings pitched. I am not fooled buy his numbers, because he is still not great, but when we take into account Vargas bad numbers against Detroit and current form from both teams, I think this game is more 50-50, than anything else.

Reason for pick
Vargas has bad numbers against Detroit Tigers players. In last 3 games, he allowed 5 home runs and we all know, that Tigers have a lot of power too. Detroit is playing better lately, after all, they won a series against Blue Jays. On the other side Kansas lost 5 out of last 6 games, where they struggle to score runs (Last 7 games = 3.3 runs, BA 0.224). I have projected, that this game should be 50-50. I expect, that if I play Detroit in this game and if they win, that bookmakers will pay me 1 unit of profit (if I bet 1 unit). They would pay me more and I think we have a nice value bet with Detroit.

Play Detroit @2.15
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Old 18-07-17, 13:49   #20
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Detroit 10-2....Thank u very much, Underdog!!!!
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Old 22-07-17, 16:40   #21
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MLB Projected Lines and Analysis - Saturday 22.7.2017

BALTIMORE (Tillman) vs HOUSTON (Mchugh)

Baltimore Orioles are red hot right now. Their hitters are scoring a lot of runs and I see nice chance here, because they will face a pitcher, that is coming back from elbow injury and this will be hist first game this season as a starting pitcher. Baltimore Orioles lost yesterday against Houston, but they still scored 7 runs and if we check last couple of games, this is their run production: 7, 9, 10, 12.

On the other side we have Houston, who won yesterday, but they are playing cold-hot lately: W-L-W-L-W-L-W-?. They are missing Correa, who is on DL and when we check their numbers against Tillman, are not perfect. In 100 at bats, they combined batting average of only 0.230 against Chris Tillman.

Chris Tillman will start for Baltimore and he is not having great year, but if he can keep good pitching against Astros lineup and if he get very good run support, I think we have a bet on home underdog here.

Houston is still better team, but I think, that Baltimore will have a chance today because of the reasons above.


Play Baltimore Orioles (Tillman) @2.15
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Old 24-07-17, 19:48   #22
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Projected MLB Lines and Picks - Monday 24/7/2017

Tampa Bay (Snell) vs Baltimore (Gausman)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Baltimore Orioles will go to Tampa Bay, where they will face left handed pitcher Blake Snell. Bookmakers set Baltimore as an underdog at the start, but then later they adjusted the odds and right now we have this game at even money. I have projected, that Tampa bay should be small underdog in this game and because I got odd of around 2.10, I have a value.

Match Up
Baltimore Orioles played a series against the best team in the league - Houston Astros. They won the last game, but if we check their performance, they are playing well right now. In last 7 games they lost only 2 and even in those two games, they scored 11 runs. They are hot and if they can keep this little bit more, than they can collect some more wins.

Kevin Gausman will start for Baltimore and despite he has ERA 9.69 in last 3 starts, I see a lot of positives, because ERA doesnít tell us everything. The first thing is that he struck out 20 batters in last three games (13 innings). The second thing is that he has very good numbers against Tampa Bay hitters (89 AB, BA 0.213). And the third thing is that I rank him higher than Blake Snell from Rays.

Tampa Bay on the other side lost 4 straight games and they will start with Blake Snell, who is 0-5 to the season with ERA of 5.14. He played only one game against Baltimore (2016) and posted ERA of 8.31. The biggest problem is that he allows too many walks (31 this season in just 56 innings).

Reason for pick
Baltimore Orioles will have pitching advantage today and they are definitely playing better. We all know, that they still have a lot of potential and they have a lot of experienced batters. They will face Blake Snell, who obviously has control problems this season. He walks a lot of batters and he allows also a lot of home runs. With current form and with current pitching duel today, I think Baltimore is the right side. This pick is also supported by math model, which gives Baltimore 52.8% of chance.

Play Baltimore @2.01
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Old 25-07-17, 22:33   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Underdogchance View Post
Projected MLB Lines and Picks - Monday 24/7/2017

Tampa Bay (Snell) vs Baltimore (Gausman)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Baltimore Orioles will go to Tampa Bay, where they will face left handed pitcher Blake Snell. Bookmakers set Baltimore as an underdog at the start, but then later they adjusted the odds and right now we have this game at even money. I have projected, that Tampa bay should be small underdog in this game and because I got odd of around 2.10, I have a value.

Match Up
Baltimore Orioles played a series against the best team in the league - Houston Astros. They won the last game, but if we check their performance, they are playing well right now. In last 7 games they lost only 2 and even in those two games, they scored 11 runs. They are hot and if they can keep this little bit more, than they can collect some more wins.

Kevin Gausman will start for Baltimore and despite he has ERA 9.69 in last 3 starts, I see a lot of positives, because ERA doesnít tell us everything. The first thing is that he struck out 20 batters in last three games (13 innings). The second thing is that he has very good numbers against Tampa Bay hitters (89 AB, BA 0.213). And the third thing is that I rank him higher than Blake Snell from Rays.

Tampa Bay on the other side lost 4 straight games and they will start with Blake Snell, who is 0-5 to the season with ERA of 5.14. He played only one game against Baltimore (2016) and posted ERA of 8.31. The biggest problem is that he allows too many walks (31 this season in just 56 innings).

Reason for pick
Baltimore Orioles will have pitching advantage today and they are definitely playing better. We all know, that they still have a lot of potential and they have a lot of experienced batters. They will face Blake Snell, who obviously has control problems this season. He walks a lot of batters and he allows also a lot of home runs. With current form and with current pitching duel today, I think Baltimore is the right side. This pick is also supported by math model, which gives Baltimore 52.8% of chance.

Play Baltimore @2.01
Vey well!Congrats!
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Old 26-07-17, 22:48   #24
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Projected Lines and Picks - Wednesday 26/7/2017

White Sox (Shields) vs Cubs (Arrieta)

My Projected Lines and the odds
White Sox and Cubs are playing 4 game series with two games already played in Wrigley Field and now, they are moving to play two games in White Sox ballpark. This is the rivalry from the same city and those games are always interesting. In the first two games, they split wins. White Sox won the first game and they lost yesterday. In both games, they were huge underdog and in first two games playing on White Sox was profitable. Bookmakers opened the odds at around +200 (3.00) on White Sox and then later odds dropped on Cubs and right now we can get White Sox at around +240 (3.4), which I think is little bit too much. I have projected, that White Sox should be an underdog, but only at the price of +131 (2.31). My math model gives 56.7% of chance to the Cubs and 43.3% of chance to White Sox. So, if you want to bet your house on this game Cubs still have better chances, but if you invest long term and if you are looking for a value, than I think we have some value with White Sox today.

Match Up
First of all this is rivalry and in such games anything can happen and historical numbers are on White Sox side when it comes to interleague games here are some interesting past numbers. White Sox record in interleague games since 1997 is 208-172, +34.3 units. On the other side Cubs have negative record since 1997 165-170, -19.4.

Cubs will start with Arrieta, who is 9-7 to the season with ERA of 4.1 and the Cubs will definitely have pitching advantage at the start of the game, because I rank him higher than James Shields on the other side who will start for the White Sox.

But still, I donít think, that James Shields is totally without chances here. He pitched 4 times against the Cubs in his career and he never lost a game. Not only, that he didnít lose any games against them, but also his team is 4-0 in those games. Last year, he beat Cubs, when he went 7.7 innings and didnít allow any run. He allowed only 4 hits. Then one game before that in 2015, he had one of the best games in his career. He went 7 innings against the Cubs and he struck out 11 hitters. And one game before that (2015) he went 6 innings and struck out 9 hitters. So, he has very good history playing against the Cubs.

Of course I am not fooled by those numbers and he is definitely not shining this season. But he will face Cubs team, that doesn7t have the best numbers against right handed pitchers this season. Batting average of 0.236, record: 35-41. So he will face a team, that has batting average below league average against right handed pitchers and he will face a team, who has negative record against right handed pitchers.

Reason for pick
We are not talking about winners. This is the topic for sports fans. We are talking about the price, that we need to pay in this game and the chances, that were offered by bookmakers. I donít say, that White Sox have better chance to win this game, in fact I say, that they have less than 50% of chance winning this game. My projected numbers show, that White Sox will have around 43.3% of chance in this game. In this situation, I would expect, that if I bet on White Sox and if they win, that bookmakers pay me at least 1.31 units of profit for my every 1 unit risked. But they offer me more. If I bet on White Sox on 5Dimes right now, I get the price of +240 (3.40) and because of that bookmakers will pay me 2.4 units of profit if White Sox win of course. This is 1.19 more, than I would expect. I also like that James Shields played well against the Cubs and I also like the fact, that this is city derby and anything can happen. I think we have a very nice odds on White Sox today.

Play White Sox (Shields) @3.40
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