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Old 23-07-18, 13:56   #1
MarianoV6
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Default PAOK (GRE) v Basel (SUI) 24/07/2018

1.80 3.40 4.00

Starting odds (at bet365 from where these odds are) were 2.20 for HW. Couple of hours ago it was 1.95 and now dropped to 1.80. Infos will follow
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Old 23-07-18, 14:02   #2
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Why so low? Basel are not a pushover. Expected 2.30
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Old 23-07-18, 14:29   #3
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Very low odds on home team.


Poslano sa mog EVA-L09 koriste***263;i Tapatalk
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Old 23-07-18, 14:34   #4
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Default Transfers

(I'm no expert in Swiss league so correct me where it is needed)

PAOK

Out (loaned or transfer) - Djalma (regular), Leovac (not included in coach's plans), Koulouris (Bench player), Jairo (not included in coach's plans), Henrique (not included in coach's plans), Azevedo (bench player), Mak (semi regular). A few more but they are youngsters, not a loss for PAOK.

In - Leo Jaba, Khacheridi. It's still early for those two to be considered as regulars, so at the moment i'd say Jaba is semi regular and Khacheridi is a bench player. Warda, Mystakidis, Charisis, Lamprou, Kitsiou plus a few more youngsters, all came as their loan deal ended. From those, only Warda, Kitsiou and Lamprou are in the squad.

Basel

Out - Elyounoussi (regular), Vaclik (regular), Lang (regular), Lacroix (not included in coach's plans), Vailati (long term injury the last year, retired from football), Itten (youngster but also their punisher at the first game of the season ), Fransson (semi regular), Gaber (not in coach's plans in my opinion). A few more youngsters but not important.

In - Widmer, Oberlin (was there also last season on loan and they bought him now), Kalulu, Julian Von Moos (investment for the future), Omlin (fantastic signing), Hansen (as second keeper), Dimitriou (from PAOK btw and has been included in the squad), Kuzmanovic (end of loan but should not be included at coach's plans). I have to write also Stocker and Frei here no matter that they came at winter transfer 2017-2018. As their coach Wicky said, they knew that some players will be going at summer so they signed those two to fill the gaps.
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Old 23-07-18, 14:37   #5
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Low odds might be cause they lost three regulars or cause they lost against St. Gallen this weekend at their first game for Super League. There are some injuries too with which they have to deal with. Another reason might also be cause they had bad results at friendlies in summer, so people seeing all that, they jumped into HW.

I will write in a moment how i saw Basel against St. Gallen this weekend
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Old 23-07-18, 15:03   #6
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An urgent update first of all before someone decide to jump into any bet

Right now, it has started to rain like hell. The drops of rain are so thick that it's almost like fog.
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Old 23-07-18, 15:42   #7
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Default Some general stuff you might want to know

Squads

PAOK's squad

G - Rey, Paschalakis
D - Matos, Crespo, Varela, Khacheridi, Kitsiou, Vieirinha
M - Shakhov, Mauricio, Caņas, Pelkas, El Kaddouri, Limnios, Warda, Lamprou, Jaba
F - Prijovic

Basel's squad (i don't have it yet so i'll write it later)

Referee

Englishman Robbert "Bobby" Madley

https://en.onefootball.com/premier-l...-is-hilarious/

Weather
During weekend and today morning, we had the hottest weather so far in summer with temperature climbing to 40 C. The weather forecast however for today afternoon and tomorrow is what i wrote earlier. Thunderstorms and rain (it hasn't stop yet since i wrote earlier) and doesn't look like it, it is however a bit lighter rain. Temperature now is almost like a late spring night which is perfect for football (and for Basel than them playing at 40 C) but because it is summer and because there is rain, the humidity will rise a lot. I will update tomorrow about weather.

Pitch

The grass is new and in perfect condition, however it might be affected by the rain if they wont cover it on time (it's different a wet pitch from a dry under 40 C temperature). Depending how the weather will be today and tomorrow, i will update on this matter as well.

Missing players

PAOK - Biseswar is out due to an injury on the last friendly, while El Kaddouri who picked a knock too is better and that's why he has been included in the squad. Bisewar missing is a blow for PAOK as he was the left winger in a 4-2-3-1 formation (Rey, Matos, Varela, Vierinha, Caņas, Mauricio, Limnios, Pelkas, Bisewar out so Jaba might replace him, and Prijovic up front).

Basel - A lot of missing players for Basel with summer signing Widmer(RB) to be the last one on the list. Kuzmanovic (M), Antonio (G), Balanta (CD), Suchy (CD), Xhaka (DM), Campo (AM), Cumart (CD). That's the last update i have so far, we will see when it comes official. So as you can see, most of the problems are in the defensive line as 3 central defenders are out and lately right back Widmer. Youngster central defender Dimitriou who was signed from PAOK this summer as free transfer has been registered at their UEFA list. Will he be a spy for his former or for his current team? No idea but for sure one of the two will have the better infos
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Old 23-07-18, 16:20   #8
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Default How i as Basel against St. Gallen

First of all, if i had to name an MVP for Basel, that would had been the new keeper, Omlin. Not because St. Gallen was Barcelona and Omnil saved Basel 300 times, but mostly for his abilities. Very good reading of the game! He almost always knew where the ball would go next and he was always there. Very good reflexes also and all that at the age of 24.

It was the first game of the season and at their home ground, so it's only what i saw there. Basel played very wide and it was like they had split the entire pitch into 11 players. At every 10 meters there was one Basel player. And their gaming style was the same as well, wide on the pitch and the passes were between 10 meters, no shorter. At least that was the case until the last three up front where those three played pretty good the 1-2 passing game and created some chances. Most dangerous player up front is Ajeti, a very controlled player who seems to have the experience too. St. Gallen played also a bit wide btw so not sure who's style is that or if someone lured the other to that style.

In midfield, Basel had No20 (i think it was Die) at first half to run all over and cut any possible chance of St. Gallen but No20 run out of gas at second half, something that was very obvious, and their opponent took advance of that. Oberlin is a fast African type of player who can create a danger in a counter attack situation, but the truth is that as long he played, he had the typical bad finishing that these type of players have. So it's only his speed that can create a danger or if he will find himself alone against the keeper.

Talking about creation, Basel lucks creative players, the usual No10 and it was all about passing the ball every 10 meters and then it was up to the final three ones, Ajeti, Bua, Stocker (or Oberlin) to create some chances.

All in all, a very impressive keeper (but young), a young and inexperience defense which leaked a lot in that wide game, a good and dangerous trio up front who have their lines very close, no creative players in the middle (DMC, MC or AMC) who can carry the ball and create something with a sharp pass, and maybe some fitness issue in the middle with Die.

For sure PAOK will not play THAT wide as their coach likes the lines to be very close and same goes with the passes as well. PAOK will also add more pressure at Basel, a much much more than St. Gallen did at their game, as main objective for PAOK is to have control over the game and when the ball is lost, then recover it quickly. So Basel need to chance their game because i don't believe that they will find so much space here. I liked No20 Die to get booked here as he was very sloppy and was going very hard on tackles, but after i saw English referee i decided to skip it (if it was available at first place anyway). No other bets for now, i'm waiting for Basel's press conference in a couple of hours or so

Last edited by MarianoV6; 23-07-18 at 16:23.
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Old 24-07-18, 00:44   #9
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Long time no see such high quality preview on BA, THX bro!
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Old 24-07-18, 06:07   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarianoV6 View Post
(Rey, Matos, Varela, Vierinha, Caņas, Mauricio, Limnios, Pelkas, Bisewar out so Jaba might replace him, and Prijovic up front).
Missing one player? =)
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Old 24-07-18, 09:06   #11
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Crespo in defense, yup, you are right
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Old 24-07-18, 09:15   #12
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I can't ignore the fact that Basel have real pedigree in this competition. They were in the last 16 last season and have regularly participated in the group stages. PAOK, on the other hand, have never won a CL qualifier (D5 L5).

While Basel have some missings, there is enough depth in the squad. I'm expecting Basel to qualify and like the odds on that at 2 but I'm not sure they will come away with a point from Greece. I think they might just score the away goal and hope to finish the job at home.

In addition the everything that's been mentioned, it's worthwhile noting that there won't be any Basel fans in attendance (as a group) because of security concerns. So the home advantage could really come to bear tonight, especially if it's really hot or humid climatically as well.
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Old 24-07-18, 10:11   #13
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A small update as every little detail counts

- Weather today in Thessaloniki is like spring time. Partly cloudy, and not so hot as it was two days ago when temperature climbed at 40 C. There were some light rain during night but nothing serious to worry about. However, it is still early and it may chance as weather forecast for today says again for thunderstorms, rain and hail.

- Yesterday it was a day of tragedy in Greece as there were two big fires around Athens in forest areas where people were living. So far, there have been counted officially 50 dead and 159 wounded and it may rise. Regarding to this game, PAOK fans have been asking for the game to be cancelled but it is up to UEFA or the state to decide about that. PAOK has asked also from UEFA to wear black armbands and keep a minute of silence before the game starts.

The reason i am writing this is because it may or may not affect the players in the first minutes. Cause it is not only that the numbers are shocking but it's the detailed stories that are coming out (25 corps were found hugged and totally burned 15 meters from the sea as they were trying to reach it, a 13 year old girl jumped to escape from a flaming car at to a cliff and she died instantly because it was very high etc etc). It is up to the coach and his stuff to keep the players concentrated and go into this game as nothing happened. At the end, it may turn out as a motive also for PAOK players to do something for Greece. You never know how can (and if) affect a player a situation like this. I know tho a couple of foreign players who are very sensitive to humanity matters. We will see
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Old 24-07-18, 10:15   #14
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Basel: Maybe they are able to raise performance level in international biz. At least that's what fans hope for, but it's kinda hard to believe in after testgames and first round in Super League, which have been very bad for Basel standards. I'm not sure that coach Wicky would survive failing in CL qualifiers. - Important Xhaka (dmf) still out, but Balanta (cdf), Cümart (cdf) and Campo (omf/cmf) apparently travelled with the team. If Cümart and/or Balanta can play, it would be very good for defensive stablility while Campo in lineup would help to improve offensive creativity and setpieces. Fitness of all three doubtful though ....actually, fitness of whole team is doubtful. Mariano already mentioned Serey Die, but he wasn't the only one to have problems in 2nd half last weekend! More guys ran out of gas in last half hour, partly having cramps. Won't be fun to play in case of hot/humid weather conditions then.
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Old 24-07-18, 11:48   #15
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Weather update

Rain rain rain for the last 20 minutes, 7 hours before kick off
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Old 24-07-18, 12:52   #16
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Both teams are well known from many goals scored, so mybe over there is the best option?
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Old 24-07-18, 17:31   #17
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Last weather Update (1klm away from the stadium)

Mostly clear sky with some clouds tho a bit far, temperature is good and humidity is not very high at the moment but as the wind is calming down, humitidy will rise. The rain i wrote earlier stopped an hour later so the pitch should be as wet as it is needed.

PAOK first eleven

Paschalakis
Matos - Varela - Crespo - Veirinha
Caņas - Mauricio
Jaba - Pelkas - Limnios
Prijovic

Basel first eleven

Omlin
Suchy - Frei - Belanta
Petretta - Serey Die - Zuffi - Riveros
Oberlin - Ajeti - Stocker

A bit surprised here to see 3 at the back for Basel, especially if Belanta is not 100% ready but it does make sense to me by putting two youngsters on the side of midfield to run up and down (Petretta and Riveros). But still, if team's fitness level is not very good after all, this might turn out to be a risk. I expect Basel to press with this formation and go for counter attack with Oberlin and Ajeti.

For PAOK the only addition is Jaba compare to last season's team but he has skills (the typical Brazilian ones) and behind him he has the experience and mature Matos who is also Brazilian. I expect Pelkas to create many chances for his team but it will be bad if he start shooting again which is neither his role or his strong point. The ball should go to Prijovic, that's what i expect you to see (and yeah, Pelkas will take some shots too).

GL with your bets, i will go live here as too many factors are involved (the fire i wrote earlier, the weather that might turn again during game, the motives etc etc). Btw and regarding to the wildfires... Owner of PAOK Ivan Savvidis told much earlier that every income will be made from tickets at this game, will go directly to the victims of the fire. So yeah, the players will be motivated/affected (pick what you like) at some level at the start of the game.
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Old 24-07-18, 18:43   #18
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i will wait and wait and wait and if at HT it stays 0-0, i will take HW. If it will be 0-1 then i will take BTS or PAOK over 1,5 goals. And if it is 2-0 already, then i will take nothing
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Old 24-07-18, 19:09   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarianoV6 View Post
I liked No20 Die to get booked here as he was very sloppy and was going very hard on tackles, but after i saw English referee i decided to skip it (if it was available at first place anyway)
What English ref for God's shake, just take the damn bet you mug, it's Serey Dieeeee
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Old 24-07-18, 19:25   #20
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PAOK race to 7 corners 1.83
PAOK team goals over 1.5 at 1.72

i took both at combo and first one single, GL!
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