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Old 23-07-18, 17:39   #1
Wilson
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Default FK Crvena Zvezda (Srb) - Suduva (Ltu) 24 Jul

1.14 6.95 17.25
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Old 23-07-18, 20:30   #2
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Once again, ridiculous odds on over (around 1.65), since Zvezda is still without a real striker (no one signed in the meantime). Last time against Spartaks, Ben played as a striker. He is really good player, but more of a winger. Spartaks played with 10 men behind the ball and it was really hard for Zvezda to break them down (they scored both goals in last 10 mins of the match, when classic "no 9" Pavkov entered the pitch).

Other creative midfield signings, like Ebecilio and Meleg, are still far from proper form, so I really don't see Zvezda scoring many goals here.

On the other hand, Suduva had a lot of luck on Cyprus vs Apoel, but they shown that they are tough and disciplined team. I expect from them to close all the lines and try to keep it tight as long as possible (even with Zvezda leading 1:0, I don't expect them to rush).

All in all, clear value on UNDER here.

GL!
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Old 23-07-18, 22:04   #3
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How are Zvezda in producing corners? Do the exploit the wings a lot?

I noticed that APOEL made countless corners vs this Suduva. The Lithuanians leave their flanks more open (deliberately), so that they can put more people inside and in front of the penalty area. They are willing to let their opponent dominate the flank and cross the ball a lot, as they have good height.

If Zvezda likes to attack through the flanks, this might be very easy Race to 9 Corners.
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Old 23-07-18, 22:19   #4
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Probably 11.

Corners probably. Fast wings, poor crosses.
CS probably 2:0.
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Old 24-07-18, 01:04   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miccho View Post
How are Zvezda in producing corners? Do the exploit the wings a lot?

I noticed that APOEL made countless corners vs this Suduva. The Lithuanians leave their flanks more open (deliberately), so that they can put more people inside and in front of the penalty area. They are willing to let their opponent dominate the flank and cross the ball a lot, as they have good height.

If Zvezda likes to attack through the flanks, this might be very easy Race to 9 Corners.
First, I have to say I never bet on corners, so I didn't pay attention how many corners Zvezda makes on average. However, Zvezda's best players are wingers Radonjic and Ben and they attack through the flanks a lot, so there should be a lot of corners tonight, I suppose.

I agree completely with Ser Nicky's analysis, Zvezda's attacking flow is still not good, not out of the preseason mode yet, so breaking experienced and tough defense like Suduva's will be a difficult task. Number 9 and 10 positions are still a big questions mark, so Zvezda backers beware. In fact value probably lies with Suduva +2 1.98 unless Zvezda manages some early goals carried by the crowd, I can't see a convincing win here.
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Old 24-07-18, 08:37   #6
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Yes, I agree pregame bet on corners is a gamble.

But I just recall how many corners APOEL made - i am lazy to check the numbers, but must have been 15-20. Of course, APOEL were chasing a 2 goal deficit from game 1.
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Old 24-07-18, 12:19   #7
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itell myself all the time i shall start taking seriosly this bussines again teh day i stop playing darn corners markets wich are often a complete gamble ... sometimes gold mine but not worth overall the keeping focus on it rather than the real deal ...
i keep fallin in trap tough .

like better a handi on corners on favour of locals rather than O/U ... if available ....

all this said .. apoel was chasing game while Zvezda main target here must be wining but above all having a CS ahead of return leg ...

weve seen baltic teams able to get results at their places often ....

watched zv vs yurmala and they struggle to open them up .. on paper suduva is stronger ...
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Old 24-07-18, 12:41   #8
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We dont have classic CF at the moment, and in this style of our play we depend on good CF, who can keep the ball, target man in FM.
Stojiljkovic is injured and Pavkov is not good enough for this level.
But he will start.
Red Star strugle against Jurmala, because they depends on CF-target man, and starter on that position was Ben, his main position is winger. When Pavkov came in, we became more dangerous, and scored soon after he came in.
Our style is playing from the deep, from CB to FB, they mostly pass the ball to wingers, and wingers crosses to the box.
I think we can easily pass Suduva with Pavkov like CF, but in next round we have to bring some good player on that position.

God saved Suduva in Cyprus, only explanation how they get through against Apoel.
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Old 24-07-18, 16:21   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nikola15
God saved Suduva in Cyprus, only explanation how they get through against Apoel.
I watched both matches. APOEL foolishly allowed them to make 3 counters in the first 20 minutes (zero defense) and get 3 goals! After that, APOEL woke up from the summer holidays and started playing proper football.

Suduva, was to spend the rest of that match and the following match parked in front of their goal. They never came out again.

APOEL found it difficult to score with so many players parked in front of the goal and so Suduva progressed to the next round.

It was one of the weirdest ways of progressing to the next round but it worked for them.

I'm sure Red Star will have watched the videos to see this and will take precautions.

Last edited by Get Real!; 24-07-18 at 16:26.
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Old 24-07-18, 16:43   #10
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Although Suduva is technically rubbish, you cannot play with zero defenses (0-4-6 system ) thinking you'll have a goal fiesta against them, without getting punished!

I'm sure Red Star won't be as stupid as APOEL was!

Home team to win to NIL is my suggestion here.

Last edited by Get Real!; 24-07-18 at 16:49.
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Old 24-07-18, 17:08   #11
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It's hard to see Suduva's fairytale continuing. Suduva has amazing coach, who does amazing job with laughable budget both in local league and Europe, he made a great plan vs APOEL, which is in early stage of the season, to take all the risk in opening minutes and it paid out big time. It was more or less the same plan like vs Sion a year ago, with Suduva scoring 2 early goals, winning 3-0 and then keeping the score in Switzerland. But when in next round we faced Ludogorets, the first game was away like tonight is, which was big problem as previous plan couldn't be used, so Bulgarians dominated the game, scored twice and shut the game down in Lithuania. Pretty much the same scenario I expect tonight. Suduva won't take the risks at all, even it's i.e. 0-2 Also I guess Zvezda should be in better scoring shape than APOEL was 2 weeks ago, so should be capable of scoring couple. Afterall, Suduva is not that reliable defensivelly as results might show
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