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Old 07-03-17, 16:56   #1
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Default Copa Libertadores 2017

We need 1 thread in which to post any picks. Today there are 2 matches:

Deportes Iquique vs. Guarani (2.2 - 3.5 - 3.6)

As has been noted, Iquique won't be playing at home because their stadium did not meet requirements. Instead they will be playing in Calama - 400 kilometers away at an altitude of 2.500 meters. This is the home stadium of Cobreloa and Iquique have been strong on the road. They have a good record playing in that stadium and last season they were stronger on the road than at home. Nonetheless, I see more value in taking X2 at 1.8 or above but for a moderate stake.

Jorge Wilstermann vs. Penarol (2.2 - 3.5 - 3.5)

Wilstermann are a mid-range Bolivian team who will square up against the strongest Uruguayan team. Jorge Wilstermann's trainer is on the verge of being fired and the only thing that the locals have going for them is the altitude of 2.500 meters. I don't think it is enough and will take Penarol DNB at 2.5 or above.
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Old 07-03-17, 17:33   #2
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It looks like the stadium for the Iquique - Guarani game will be pretty empty. There will only be a handful of Guarani fans attending. Iquique arranged a charter flight for some of their fans. I'm not sure that many of the locals (fans of Cobreloa) will turn out to support Iquique. So that there may only be a few hundred people in the stadium.
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Old 20-03-17, 23:48   #3
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Here is a summary of the current odds on a team to win the Copa Libertadores:

6.5 Palmeiras

9 River Plate

10 Atletico Mineiro
10 Flamengo

12 Santos FC

13 Gremio

17 Atletico Paranaense

21 Atletico Nacional

23 Botafogo
23 Estudiantes
23 Universidad Catolica

26 Chapecoense
26 Lanus

29 Godoy Cruz
29 The Strongest

34 Atletico Tucuman
34 Nacional Montevideo

41 Guarani

51 Barcelona
51 Libertad
51 Santa Fe

67 Melgar
67 Independiente Medellin
67 Zulia

71 Emelec

81 Jorge Wilstermann
81 San Lorenzo

101 Deportes Iquique
101 Penarol
101 Sport Boys Warnes

151 Sporting Cristal
151 Zamora

To the best of my knowledge, only 10Bet, NetBet, MarathonBet and Bet365 offer odds on this market.

So the question is whether there is any value in picking a winner at this point. Looking at the odds, I have invested in four teams:

1. Lanus @ 26 with Bet365. Lanus are a solid team - very cohesive as a team and complete in all departments. In my view, this is the best Argentinian side. They recently won the Argentinian league and they won the Sudamericana back in 2013. They did lose two key wingers in the latest transfer period but they can make up for this in the summer. I don't think they will have difficulties advancing out of their group and see them as very strong contenders to win the cup. They should be trading considerably higher than 26 in my opinion.

2. Santa Fe @ 51. Another team that recently won the Sudamericana (2015). Santa Fe are offensively and defensively strong. They're in an easy group out of which they should advance without much difficulty. With Atletico Nacional weakened by the departure of their key players, I see Santa Fe as the strongest Columbian team in the competition. I think they could go very far, maybe even all the way. Santa Fe is definitely a serious contender.

3. Independiente Medellin @ 67. Another strong Colombian side that should clinch 2nd place in their group against Melgar and Emelec. And then we will see where it goes from there. They could definitely get to the QF, maybe even the SF. And with a bit of luck they could go even further.

4. Penarol @ 100. Penarol looked a bit unsettled as of late but they've gotten the curve and I can't see them not clinching 2nd spot in their group so that they will be in the last 16. The finals are far off, they have some talent in their squad and with some key reinforcements in the summer, they could have the potential to go further. While their best days are surely behind them, they're past the drought of the 90's and 00's. In fact, they made the finals in 2011 and it is way too early to write them off.

Disclosure: My favorite teams are Guarani and The Strongest but I think they're priced right so that I would not advocate buying them right now.

Last edited by WiserthantheCrowd; 21-03-17 at 02:30.
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