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Old 27-12-17, 22:40   #1
Marco Antonio
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Default Probability method

Hello guys

A doubt that comes to me all the time.

What is the best method to calculate the odds in football?

Poisson distribution
Regression Analysis
Pitagoras
Standard deviation

I hear many gamblers say that the best method is the Poisson distribution, but how do I calculate with a small number of games (for example 10), and how do I include factors such as, field control, embezzlement, needs / motivation of the team, among others? How do I put these factors into numbers in this distribution?

Someone to discuss this?


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Old 11-01-18, 10:03   #2
arzu_kaz
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Hi Dude. All methods not bad. I will recomend to get some advice from soccerwidow site. Very interesting. If you have questions feel free to ask here. Good luck.
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Old 04-02-18, 14:43   #3
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A poisson distribution deals the probability of an event occuring during a certain time interval. Many people utilize this probability for goals in matches (what is the probability a certain match ends in 1-2 during the season). However poisson distributions assume a constant rate and independence of events (if a team concedes will they want to score with even more effort?). So you have to be careful with those assumptions. Best is to visualize the actual distribution of the data you are wanting to model and test to see what distribution fits.

Regression analysis is utilized to quanitify relationship between variables and be able to predict. You can utilize poisson regressions to model the rates of goals, wins, etc... and incorporate different variables to test for significance. Once again your dependent variable is subject to complying with the assumptions a poisson distribution if you wish to utilize a poisson regression. With regression analysis you have to check if the model fits the data and assess for fits and variables. Techinques include lasso, covariance matrices and other techniques to better fit the data.

Pitagoras no idea. Do you mean the theorem used to compute the hypotenuse of a triangle? If so I cant imagine how it would be used to compute odds.

Standard deviation is a descriptive statistic. Deviations talk about the average distance from the mean of the data. How you can use this sole number to calculate odds I do not know since this is a measurement one makes on your data, it is not used to for prediction purposes. It talks about variability in your data. The more variability in your data the less accurate some models will be and the smaller significance certain variables may have.
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