POD 17/03/2018

[sirac]

Thanks to our sponsor Terje Grefstad

*RULES FOR MARCH*

Odds must be between 1.75 and 2.25 and only odds taken from these 3 bookmakers are allowed:

Bet365
Pinnacle
SBOBet

You can only take these bet types :

-Asian handicap bets
-Over/Under bets (Game total) !

For other details check the thread POD March 2018 NEW RULES!

Prices as usually:
1st place - 110 EUR
2nd place - 60 EUR
3rd place - 30 EUR

You can check odds for your picks here:

http://www.oddsportal.com/

[Reno]

Pick # 9 ( 6,5 - 0 - 1,5 ) +522
Football, Holland, Æresdivision
Vitesse vs Heracles
Pick : over 3,25
Odds: 2,22 @ Pinnacle

I like chances for over in this one. Vitesse involved lately in really high score games. Especially at home they play very open and offensive minded football. In last 5 games they played 4 of them went over 3,5 and one over 2,5. Heracles is also the team that plays very offensive minded football. 21 games they played this season in æredivisie went over 2,5 goals and only 6 under 2,5 goals. Vitesse had a tough game last game against Utrecht where they lost badly and it smells that they will try to get revanche in this game today. Both teams will go for a win in this one and I expect a game with a lot of chances and very open minded football. H2H its not good for my bet otherwise I like the chances for a game where both teams will score and over in this one looks like very probable outcome.
0-0 pick lost

[spkutano]

Pick No 4 (1W 0V 2L) -44

Liverpool vs Watford

Pick: Watford +1.75 AH
Odds: 2.20
Bet365

Probable starting lineups:

Liverpool:
Karius, Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Van Dijk, Robertson, Wijnaldum, Henderson, Emre Can, Mane, Firmino, Salah

Watford:
Karnezis, Janmaat, Prodl, Mariappa, Britos, Doucoure, Capoue, Femenia, Pereyra, Richarlison, Deeney

I think Watford could cover the handicap. Liverpool are huge favorites, but Watford aren't bad at all. There are two reasons for my pick. The first is connect with the hosts. Liverpool are out of form at the moment and the Reds showed their inconsistency once again. First they failed to score against Porto in the second-leg match and then suffered a painful defeat to Manchester United at Old Trafford last Saturday. It was a disappointing performance by the Merseysiders and strikers Mane, Roberto Firmino and Salah were unable to change something. The second reason for my pick is connect with the guests. Watford have obtained two victories on the last three matches in the Premier League and the players confidence is high. They sit on the 10th position with 36 points and probably are out of the relegation battle. The Hornets managed to beat Everton and WBA in the last period. They are out of pressure and they are able to cover the handicap here.
5-0 pick lost

[sirac]

Pick # 7 (4,5-0,5-0...+529)
England FACup
Man Utd- Brighton

Pick: Man Utd -1.5
Odds: 1.97
Bookie: Pinnacle

Big spot for big ego Mou to bounce back. Too much negativity around this team and logically the failure with Sevilla comes as a no surprise. Must be a wake up call, altghough reading the press it doesnt look like Mou learned anything about it, he keeps on ranting about his records and enters defense mode like soneone is after his success. Too much ego to have some humility so prolly the list of failures wont end up here for Mou. But this is time where urgency must step in. Even Mou must have learnt that being pasive and playing negative tactics at home against inferior teams aint exactly the way to go at Old Tdafford. Simply there is quality in this squad altghough i do rate some of their players average but Sanchez, Lukaku must deliver after Sevilla fiasco. They should react after all the criticism.
Brighton is having a decent season but this is like a bonus game since relegation worries are prolly gone by now but i do rate them pretty average especially on the road. They tend to lose against big boys and they do it with handicap being covered by the bigger team. Ok recently they won against Arsenal but that was at home and its Arsenal ffs, with Wenger in charge so enough said.
They will also miss influential midfielder Knockaert suspended. I can definitelly see United playing with more urgency than they did with Sevilla as a response to the CL elimination. This game should be all about how Utd will shut down the critics as i dont see Brighton capable of coping with what a motivated United has to offer, simply difference in quality, phisicality etc.
2-0 pick won

[vividaniel]

pick 1

Italy Serie A

Udinese vs Sassuolo

pick home win

odd 2,17 with Pinnacle

For me this will be a clear home win.Sassuolo is one of the weakest team in Serie A this season.In fact after Di Francesco left their play was much worse.I think they will have a hard season fighting to avoid the relegation.After the results of Crotone and Spal they need to win games but I don_t think that will happen today.Udinese comes after 4 defeats and they will try to win because the fans are already nervous.In addition Sassuolo have 3 very important absences.Peluso,Ragusa and Berardi are all suspended.So home advantage,better players and important absences for the away team I think this are good reasons for an easy home win.
1-2 pick lost

[alcuni]

Pick no.6 (5-0-1) +440
Reims - Lens
Pick Lens +0.25
Odds: 2.20
Bookie: Pinnacle

Reims is dominating Ligue 2 having 11 points advance from 2nd spot occupied by Nimes. No pressure at all atm on their side, team playing quite well. Only 2 defeats and a single draw at home in 14 games played says a lot of their force. For this game they will be without 2 strikers: top scorer Siebatcheu+ Kyei and also Disasi and Kamara injured while Da Cruz is suspended.
On the other side Lens is doing quite poor lately. But is a clear difference between their games played at home and those played on the road. If in 2018 at home they lost 4 times ( all 0-1) and drew one on the road they are unbeaten in 2018 won twice and drew 4 times. Actually they lost a single time in last 10 trips, having won over Nimes and drew against other top teams as Paris FC, Brest, Lorient and Chateauroux. Bellegarde is thier single notable missing.
For sure will not be a spectacular game today; Lens will try to keep their good records on the road and playing without the big pressure their fans create at home ( btw fans will not be present at all here and also will be in low numbers in the future home games) they have a chance. Perhaps a defensive minded display for Sikora men who will try to take advantage of the missing players and (perhaps) relaxation from the home squad. Back Lens +0.25 gl
3-1 pick lost

[Feri]

#2 +118

Italy Serie A

Udinese vs Sassuolo


Pick: Udinese -0.5 @2.19 SBOBET


After a very good run end of last calendar year, Udinese got back to a much worse one beginning this year and when getting better again, they simply had a very tough schedule where not really beaten high, they still couldn't collect points usually. Therefore I see a very good chance for them today when they play Sassuolo, a team fighting for survival, though that fight is not really successful.

Sassuolo, a team with only exceptionally home players, had three good wins before new year as well, when they left the bottom, but then their results went down and even the two 'must win' games home vs Spal & Cagliari couldn't been won, not to speak about better opponents like Atalanta & Lazio (both 0:3 home) and Juve (0:7! away).

If Sassuolo is a team of Italian players, Udinese on the other hand is the quite opposite, with almost exceptionally foreign players who were surely brought to achieve more than just survive in the mid table. And though Europe places are quite far away atm, I'm sure Udinese can collect good points till the end of Serie A, with a still better schedule especially towards the end.

HW well priced here and worth a try imo.

7/10
Posted too late, already taken. Cancelled!

[ivan-dzo]

4/8
+68

9th pick

Tondela - Maritimo over 2.25 SBOBET 2.14

Odds are to good to miss.
We have here game that have big potential to go in over.
Tondela is solid team. I watched them several times this season. Quality team without big names. Still, they love to attack, they have no worries, will survive for sure, and can play relax for goal more.
Maritimo still can catch European place next season. They are also team who can play against any team in the league. Have some problems back in defense and I believe we can see here over 2.25 goals easy!

Good luck !!!
1-2 pick won

[damir10]

pick #3 1-0-1 -11

Football
Turkey
Manisaspor - Gaziantep
Gaziantep -2 Asian H
Odds: 2.00 bet365

Manisaspor had -9 points ban from federation and they are having big board member problems. Important players left the club and they have now 16 points difference with a team to survive in a league on 7 matches left. I think it is almost impossible for them to stay in this league. They are now playing with young players from B team. On last game, most of their players were borned between 1993 and 1999. Manisaspor lost last 6 of 7 games in a row. They also lost all 7 meetings against Top 5 meetings and 6 of them finished more than 1 goal difference. These 7 meetings against Top-5 teams are 0-3 0-2 1-2 at home, 4-1 3-0 2-0 2-0 on road. Gaziantep has good squad with young and experienced players for this level. I think they will for sure will be in play off group but they want more for direct promotion. Gaziantep won last 8 of 10 games at league. Gaziantep has 6 victories against bottom-6 teams and all these victories were more than 1 goal difference. They are in a superb form and can win this game more than 1 goal difference.
0-6 pick won

[Arbiter Elegantiarum]

Pick#5
1-0-3 -199

CAF CL quals
Township Rollers v Young Africans over 2.5 odds: 2.2 @bet365

Botswanian champions Township Rollers are on the brink of history of making CAF CL group stage after they've won first leg 2:1 in away game. They have the money and continental ambitions, they have collected a good team including Botswanian national team players, among them star Joel Mogorosi. They can defend their advantage from first leg, but this is a team made to dominate and score goals, so they should not sit back here. They score around 2 goals a game in the league and all 3 of their this year's CAF CL quals game were over 2.5 as they suprisingly trashed Sudanese team Al-Merreikh 3:0 at home before losing 1:2 in return leg.

On the other hand Tanzanian team Young Africans have no choice but to attack here as they need to score 2 goals. They are also dominant team in their league, scoring around 2 goals a game, they have some good offensive players like striker Obrey Chirwa. With Rollers having home advantage and Young Africans desperate to attack and score, I see this as a game where both sides should find the net as they fight for that CL group stage spot.
0-0 pick lost

[Quill]

Pick 7 4-0-2 +179

Six Nations - Rugby

Italy vs Scotland

Italy are again the weakest side in the competition, having lost all their matches so far. Not only that, but the defeats have been at big margins.

Scotland are an improved side compared to last year.
This season they got two great wins, defeating France as well as England, which at the start of the competition was considered the second best team in the world.

Last round the Scots had a disappointing performance in Dublin, and for this match they named their most experienced squad available.

Their intentions are clear and the Italians just don't have the players to stop a heavy defeat.

Last year Scotland beat Italy two times, 29-0 and 34-13.

Bet: Scotland -16.5 @1.93 Pinnacle
27-29 pick lost

[hashishmaster]

Pick #2 (0W-0V-1L) (-100)

League: Super league
Match: St. Gallen - Grasshoppers
Pick: (1X2) St. Gallen
Odds: 2.25
Bookmaker: Sbobet

Interesting things are happening in this years' Swiss Super league as we didn't use to see Basel at 2nd position, 16 points behind 1st Young Boys but what is more incredible is just 3 points ahead of St. Gallen. So battle for spot in CL qualifications will be very tense. St. Gallen didn't believe that they would be in this situation and with a potential todays win over Grasshoppers to be equaled points with Basel. Yes Basel had one game in had but if they continue with awful form and play, everything is possible. So hosts have everything to play for, mega motivation, very good form with 4 wins in a row (1st win in that series of 4 came against Basel away) and healthy squad. Out are Ad. Ajeti (0 games played), Krucker (0 gp), Gonitzer (7 gp), Tschernegg (15 gp), Koch (14 gp), Gasser(2 gp), Muheim (1 gp). They don't rely on just one player or two, they have 5 players with 5 or more goals this season so danger is not one dimensional. Grasshoppers are in bad form, just 2 wins 1 draw and 4 defeats after the break and are 7th, four points behind EL places. That is mainly because of good 1st half of the season but i don't think that they will succeed to get to those places because both Zurich and Luzern are in better form than them. They will have Bergstrom (25 gp) Bajrami (22 gp) and Sukachev (3 gp) out. I don't believe that guests defense will hold on the pressure from hosts, which will for sure be present. Also hosts are owning guests at home with 4 wins in a row, including this years' 3-1 win for St. Gallen. I believe that super motivated, in form hosts will gain vital 3 points in the battle for CL spots next year and put more pressure on Basel.
2-1 pick won

[Aql]

POD #5
So far 3/0/1
+232

Home » Soccer » England » Championship » Sheffield Utd - Nottingham
Sheffield (AH -0,75) @ 2.21 SBOBET

Sheff Utd are clinging on to hopes of claiming one of the playoff spots and, on the whole, it has been a very successful first season back in the Championship for United. The Blades are hard to beat at Bramall Lane and Chris Wilder will want his side to take maximum points from this one to go with the 2-0 midweek win over Burton Albion.
Last time out, Nottingham Forest drew 0-0 with rivals Derby at the City Ground. Forest are now unbeaten in six since losing at home to Hull City in mid-February, but four of those have been draws. Aitor Karanka***8217;s men are in no danger of going down, nor will they make the playoffs.
With Sheff Utd not giving up on the playoffs, the Blades will be desperate to add another three points to their tally at the weekend.
0-0 pick lost

[Valverde]

Pick #2
1W 0L +105
Football, La Liga
Valencia - Alaves
Pick: Valencia -1.0 AH
Odds: 1.83
Bookie: Pinnacle

Alaves improved really much in last weeks/months and that's hy they are 11 points above relegation zone. However stil they have plenty to do in away matches where they lost 11 of 14 games. Today on very tough ground which Mestalla definately is (10 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses for Los Ches so far) I doubt they will not get another loss. Valencia is playing great in this season and are in very good form lately. In last round beat Sevilla at Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan which just few days later eliminated Manchester United at Old Trafford. Moreover hosts in last six matches gained 16 from 18 points avaible. Today hosts will miss Mina and Coquelin but Valencia's bench is very deep with many great players such as Soler, Maksimovic, Vietto etc. Because of that I'm still sure about Valencia's victory and I think it won't end by only one goal margin. Hosts are used to play very offensively and trying to score as much as possible in every single game. In sum only 1.0 AH line at these odds looks like a very safe and sure option.
3-1 pick won

[Sabelius]

Pick #1
Premier League, football
Bournemouth - West Bromich Albions
Pick: Bournemouth [-0.5 AH]
Odds: 1.88 @ Pinnacle

I'm really surprised that still none placed that bet. West Bromwich Albions are in really weak form and tough situation. Six consecutive losses and last place it's not the worst thing that happen to guests. Chairman wanted to sack current coach Alan Pardew but decided to not do that because of financial issues. Atmosphere inside the club is really bad while morale very low. Moreover guests will miss today Sturridge, Morrison, Barry and Chadli which are almost all very important to the team.Bournemout on the other side is naturally very strong at home. They have almost no injuries problems. They are winless for four matches, but also they were not playing too bad in them. WBA after four consecutive games without a goal will have huge problems to keep this game close and I think Bournemouth should win this one without any significant troubles.
2-1 pick won