Germany, Lower Leagues, 23.-25.03.2018

[Azure]

Bremen II - Paderborn
Werder youngsters are slumping all season long. Winless for 26 games, winterbreak didn't bring any improvements and it really looks like they will drop back to RL North after three seasons in 3.Liga. It's not like they play bad all the time, but they seriously lack consistency, are prone to errors in the back and unefficient upfront. - Paderborn was totally dominating in first part of season, but ran a bit out of steam in late November, going only 5-5-3, 19:13 afterwards. Competitors were able to catch up and now they are still topping the league but sitting just 4 points above a non-promotion rank! At least they returned to winning in last two games, even coming back from a 0:2 deficit to win 3:2 in the end at Rostock two weeks ago. - SCP did trash Bremen II in first meeting this season 7:1. Unlikely to get such clear result this time, but a comfortable Paderborn win seems very likely. Odds already dropped but I still consider -1,0 valuable here.
Paderborn -1,0 @2,02 sbo/pin (5/10)

[Azure]

Stuttgart II - Walldorf
VfB Stuttgart was close to withdraw the reserve from the league. Lots of discussions last year and that affected the players (many poor, unmotivated performances from Sept to Nov 2017). Club changed the coach before winterbreak and decided in February 2018 that the team will continue to play in RL Southwest. They won 3 of 5 games after the break, keeping clean sheets in 4 of those games and losing only once (crashing 1:6 vs FSV Frankfurt). Today w/o towering Radeljic (cdf,12; regular in last weeks) who is at nationalteam duty, Scheidl (ldf,21/2) suspended and Elva (rmf,15/3/7) still injured. Pros A.Meyer (gk,2), Özcan (omf,3/0/1), Sessa (omf,22/8/5), Mangala (cmf,0) and Asano (omf,0) will be available though and Sommer (rdf,25/0/3) returns from suspension. - Walldorf is still undefeated in 2018 (2-3-0, 11:5), but did not win for 6 roadgames and team got hit by flu in last week. At least four regulars are doubtful: Captain Kern (omf,20/3), Grupp (cmf,23/3/2), Groß (fw,19/6/2) and Horn (dmf,25/0/2). - Leaning homewin but don't like the odds. Sure, Stuttgart seemed quite solid in defense lately, but experiences changes in the back today and those pro additions might disturb the team balance. Guys like Asano, Özcan and Mangala definitely should be able to improve the offensive threat. 6 of last 11 Walldorf away games did end with at least 4 goals. All three previous meetings saw both teams scoring and hitting over 2,5.
Over 2,75 @1,95 sbo (3/10)

[Azure]

1860 München - Garching
After stomping thru Bavaria for 15 rounds (12-2-1, 38:9), Munich Lions finished 2017 rather poorly (3-1-3, 11:7). Restart saw them back on track so far (3-1-0, 9:3), at least as far as results are concerned! Performances haven't been really great, but coach Bierofka sticks to his plan (solid defense, no harakiri attacking style; individual quality is better than anybody else in the league anyways, so it's usually only a matter of time till 1860 scores). New signing Görlitz (former 2.BL and Swedish Allsvenskan regular) is finally fit to play and could get his debut today. Seferings, who missed first part of season because of knee injury, should return in squad. MVP Gebhardt and winger Helmbrecht are still out. Game ofc sold out again (12.500). - Garching is better away than home, probably because they like to play offensively, which is easier if opponent does not sit back in defense as well. As a result, they are a highscoring team. It's very rare that they don't score; defense concedes on a regular basis as well though. Coach announced that he won't change the approach when visiting "Grünwalder Stadion" this evening. Important defender Pflügler and offensive midfieder Tugbay return from suspensions. - 1860 won 3:0 away at Garching last September, dominating clearly. Not sure that Garching will be as chanceless as that again, but I think Lions will still take 3 points and probably -1,5 is ok to take. Since I dislike fav handicaps higher than -1,0 and over odds did rise high enough to make it interesting, I decided to go for goals instead.
Over 3,0 @1,93 pin (5/10)

[Sev]

Great job!

[Chewoo]

Great!

[Azure]

Erfurt - Fortuna Köln
RW Erfurt filed for insolvency last week. Usually this gets punished with -9 pts. If we add this to the point they already got deducted for breaching licensing rules, the team actually got only 9 points right now instead of 19 and is relegated. I guess that almost all players will leave at seasonend. Apparently loads of scouts will attend the next games, hence players got a personal motivation to show some quality. However, squad situation is troublesome as well: Laurito (cdf,15/2/1) and Neuhold (cdf/dmf,17/2) are still injured, Dabanli (dmf/cdf,18/1) internally longterm suspended, Menz (cdf,17/0/3) left during winterbreak (to Fortuna Köln!), Odak (rdf,24/0/1), Razeek (rmf,22/3/1), Ludwig (cmf,11) and wintersignings Kaffenberger (cdf,6) + Kwame (ldf,7) are doubtful, so especially defense is affected, which surely won't help to get more solid in the back. At the other end of the pitch offensive efficiency is abyssmal anyways (only 19 scored goals in 29 games). - Fortuna Köln was on a great run in Feb/March, winning 5 games in a row, conceding only 1 goal. Hopes were high to put serious pressure on promotion ranks. But that run came to an end last week when Fortuna lost 1:3 vs Aspach despite another good performance (individual errors in defense did cost them). Well, there's still 8 games to go, so no need to give up yet. But winning at deadlast, brankrupt Erfurt is ofc a must now! Scheu (rmf,29/3/8) is suspended, Bender (df/rmf,22/2) rather unlikely to return from injury and Ernst (rdf,27/1/5) questionable. - I doubt that the motivation to play for new contracts elsewhere will be high enough to match the one of Fortuna, who still can attack promotion ranks; not to speak of general higher quality and form of the visitors + defensive problems of Erfurt...
Fortuna Köln -0,5 @2,15 pin (4/10)

[betking09]

I have some matches in my head for today, but now I see all odds are rising. For example:

3rd league:
SF Lotte - Chemnitzer FC 1 @2.15
17th against 18th of the league. The last results are not so good for Lotte but CFC is very very poor in away games. From the last 10 away games in the league, they lost 9 of them and got 1 draw against youngsters of Werder II at the end of September. And I think with the home advantage Lotte dont want to lose the 4 points difference to the relegation place where CFC is now.

Also RW Erfurt - Fortuna Cologne 2 @ 2.00 Fortuna after last match home lost against Grossaspach with damage for the battle for the relegation places. Erfurt on last place of the league with only 19 points. Erfurt only 1 win in their last 9 league matches at home and Fortuna needs the points after last lost.

And the last from Regionalliga North:
Eintracht Norderstedt - Weiche Flensburg 2 @ 1.95
Flensburg with 3 games in hand and when they can get 7 or 9 points they really have a chance for 1st place. Winning 4 of last 5 away matches, only 1 draw against the leader HSV II. On the other side Norderstedt lost their last 3 home matches. And looking to all their last matches Norderstedt with only 1 win and 2 draw in last 10 matches. h2h is also 3-1 wins for Weiche.

But I think our friend Azure can give us some more informations

[Azure]

Wolfsburg II - Lüneburg (RL North)
Little Wolves with decent restart but overall poor situation regarding promotion playoffs. They already got a 4 pts gap to the top, HSV II still got a game in hand and Flensburg could still get ahead with all those postponed games. However, reserves teams are not about winning the league in the first place but rather about preparing youngsters for the pro team. Besides, Wolfsburg got some revenge feelings vs LSK because they lost the first meeting 0:2, showing one of the worst performances of the season. - Lüneburg seems to have a comfortable distance to the relegation ranks, but that could change damn fast if they lose the next games and competitors from below (with less played games) catch up. This is the last of a long run of awaygames for LSK. Most of their homegames got postponed, so the team will play 11 of remaining 12 games after this weekend at home lol. - Unlikely that Wolfsburg will stumble again vs this opponent. Not when being fully focussed and still having sth to play for. LSK lost 9 of 10 games vs the top7 teams in the league (so that 2:0 vs Wolfsburg II was the only positive result vs higher rankings). Small stakes because handicap higher than -1,0. Game starts soon.
Wolfsburg II -1,25 @2,06 sbo (2/10)

[Azure]

SF Lotte - Chemnitzer FC 1 @2.15
17th against 18th of the league. The last results are not so good for Lotte but CFC is very very poor in away games. From the last 10 away games in the league, they lost 9 of them and got 1 draw against youngsters of Werder II at the end of September. And I think with the home advantage Lotte dont want to lose the 4 points difference to the relegation place where CFC is now.

And the last from Regionalliga North:
Eintracht Norderstedt - Weiche Flensburg 2 @ 1.95
Flensburg with 3 games in hand and when they can get 7 or 9 points they really have a chance for 1st place. Winning 4 of last 5 away matches, only 1 draw against the leader HSV II. On the other side Norderstedt lost their last 3 home matches. And looking to all their last matches Norderstedt with only 1 win and 2 draw in last 10 matches. h2h is also 3-1 wins for Weiche.

Lotte homewin was a lean, but I skipped it in the end.
Didn't check Norderstedt-Flensburg yet...

[Azure]

Schott Mainz - FSV Frankfurt (RL Southwest)
Hosts obviously still need points against relegation and they better get them before final rounds of season, because then they will face some topteams and points will be hard to come by. Last three homegames boosted confidence (2-1-0, 11:5) and they already won the first meeting vs FSV last Sept 3:1 away! - FSV Frankfurt gonna miss two suspended defenders today and (just like Schott) are quite highscoring after the break anyways, so I back the over here at reasonable odds.
Over 3,0 @2,03 sbo (3/10)

[Azure]

Nürnberg II - Seligenporten (RL Bavaria)
FCN II had an erratic seasonstart till end of September (including a 1:3 defeat at Seligenporten), but then got on track and lost only 1 of last 14 games (11-2-1, 38:16), which is better than Bayern II or 1860 München! They score easily but st fail to focus properly in df. - Seligenporten finally ended a 5-game-run without scoring in last game, but is still winless for 8 rounds now (0-4-4, 5:16) and under serious pressure to collect points in the table basement, so they can't just hide in df and hope for a draw today. - I don't think that the visitors got what it takes to stop surging Nürnberg youngsters right now. Small stakes again because of handicap....
Nürnber II -1,25 @2,01 sbo (2/10)

[Azure]

Eutin - Havelse (RL North)
Eutin got worst df of RL North, but best attack of lower tablehalf! They scored and conceded in almost every game this season and played tons of overs. Played vs strong opponents so far after winterbreak and scored against all of them, so they should be able to do it vs much worse df of Havelse as well. - Havelse played 8 overs in 10 awaygames so far, scoring at least 2 goals in 6 of those games! Unlikely that they won't manage to get the ball in the back of the net when facing leaky Eutin now... - First meeting this season was a 3:2 Havelse homewin at begin of October. I hope we see sth similar again today.
Over 3,0 @2,08 pin (4/10)

[buffalo_rill]

Erfurt - Fortuna Köln
RW Erfurt filed for insolvency last week. Usually this gets punished with -9 pts. If we add this to the point they already got deducted for breaching licensing rules, the team actually got only 9 points right now instead of 19 and is relegated. I guess that almost all players will leave at seasonend. Apparently loads of scouts will attend the next games, hence players got a personal motivation to show some quality. However, squad situation is troublesome as well: Laurito (cdf,15/2/1) and Neuhold (cdf/dmf,17/2) are still injured, Dabanli (dmf/cdf,18/1) internally longterm suspended, Menz (cdf,17/0/3) left during winterbreak (to Fortuna Köln!), Odak (rdf,24/0/1), Razeek (rmf,22/3/1), Ludwig (cmf,11) and wintersignings Kaffenberger (cdf,6) + Kwame (ldf,7) are doubtful, so especially defense is affected, which surely won't help to get more solid in the back. At the other end of the pitch offensive efficiency is abyssmal anyways (only 19 scored goals in 29 games). - Fortuna Köln was on a great run in Feb/March, winning 5 games in a row, conceding only 1 goal. Hopes were high to put serious pressure on promotion ranks. But that run came to an end last week when Fortuna lost 1:3 vs Aspach despite another good performance (individual errors in defense did cost them). Well, there's still 8 games to go, so no need to give up yet. But winning at deadlast, brankrupt Erfurt is ofc a must now! Scheu (rmf,29/3/8) is suspended, Bender (df/rmf,22/2) rather unlikely to return from injury and Ernst (rdf,27/1/5) questionable. - I doubt that the motivation to play for new contracts elsewhere will be high enough to match the one of Fortuna, who still can attack promotion ranks; not to speak of general higher quality and form of the visitors + defensive problems of Erfurt...
Fortuna Köln -0,5 @2,15 pin (4/10)

the prediction was great with strong info and everything, but the referee of the match that Henry Müller thought he had to do something for someone, so if you have lost money for this game you know who to turn to. Bravo Azure anyway


Inviato dal mio ASUS_Z00VD utilizzando Tapatalk

[Azure]

Lost Sat bets:

Erfurt - Fortuna Köln 2:1.
Fortuna outnumbered for almost complete game after early red card. Teams neutralizing each other in first half. Erfurt better in second and deserved win in the end.

Nürnberg II - Seligenporten 1:2.
FCN youngsters apparently with lacklustre, poor performance, nowhere near their real abilities. Mugs...

+3,53 units profit for the day though.

[Azure]

Neustrelitz - Bautzen (RL Northeast)
Neustrelitz is in an awful situation but not dead yet. If they win this homegame, they could get quite close to the safe zone. And last 4 homegames produced promising results (3-1-0, 8:3). Almost full squad available. - Bautzen not as desperate as Neustrelitz but ofc not safe yet. They are poor travellers though, having scored only 5 away goals so far. - Game will not be played in regular stadium but on artificial pitch (Neustrelitz already played last two games on this surface, so they might be better used to it). I guess we can expect a hard fighting match and consider home levelball odds valuable for small stakes.
Neustrelitz 0 @2,00 pin (2/10)

Nordhausen - Hertha II (RL Northeast)
Both teams are hard to beat. Nordhausen lost only 2 games so far (but played 10 draws), while Hertha II needed some time to get in gear but are second best team of last 14 rounds! Nordhausen's captain Propheter should return in lineup, but veteran gk Berbig is doubtful due to illness. Hertha on the other hand could get pro help because of nationalteam break. This is pretty much a 50:50 game imo, so Hertha II +0,5 is tempting, but I will back the over instead after odds moved up. Nordhausen played 5 overs in last 7 games, Hertha (with Pronichev in redhot scoring form) got 4 overs in last 5 games.
Over 2,5 @1,99 sbo (4/10)