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Old 04-09-17, 12:31   #91
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[QUOTE=MuratCan;2552319]Latvia-Great Britain

"Bertans' finger injury is a blow, because he definitely provides a different dimension at the offensive end, but as it was seen against Belgians, against such level of competition, Latvians don't need that dimension to produce good offensive numbers."

Bertans is ready to go. has green light from Spurs med team. finger is not broken. Strelnieks is ready. Meiers questionable `cause of kind of stomach virus. virus has hit other group teams, except turkey, latvian team reports to local media. kinda food thing. the point is all visiting teams live in one hotel
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Old 04-09-17, 12:49   #92
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Hungary-Czech 1 2.9
I was not watched Hungary match vs Montenegro and dissapointing offensive performance with just 49 point netted,but I have followed their first game and was positively surprised the way they play almost entire game.
Both teams has one outstanding individual,Czech with Satoransky on guard duty and Hungarian Hanga.
Hanga was perfect first half,but skipped second with minor injury.
Vojvoda left great impression on me,he is just member of average Hungarian team Szolnok
but play qualitatively and skilfully,by outplaying Ukic and Popovic.
Odds are tempting and I am on this
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Old 04-09-17, 13:15   #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dus@n View Post
Czech vs Hungary @14:00 CET



Tomas Satoransky OVER 17.5
If you are sure in your pick, better choose Mozzart, they have 16.5 line on him.
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Old 04-09-17, 14:52   #94
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Latvia-Great Britain

Latvia will play against Russia and Turkey after this, so they will not bring their a-game to the court for sure, but so far in the tournament, we experienced several times that teams with certain qualities don't need to bring their top game to demolish the opponents and cover such double digit spreads.

His team reacted well to coach Bagatskis' comments about improving at the defensive end, there will be concentration tweaks for sure, but the emphasis on defending with quick feet and a strong will should be there and it should be enough to contain GB's offense.

And Latvia's strongest defensive suit is protecting the rim, as Porzingis lives around there and Brits don't have enough firepower to widen the Latvians' defense and make space for main offensive producers Olaseni and Clark to function properly, they may probably have the hardest match ups of this campaign.

To let 110+ offensive rating to such an offensively challenged Turkish team tells way too much on its own, and to face against Latvia as that team is an alarming thing. Brits are terribly undersized in the guard and wing positions, whereas their only possible physical advantage is totally neutralized against Latvians' big's as well.

Bertans' finger injury is a blow, because he definitely provides a different dimension at the offensive end, but as it was seen against Belgians, against such level of competition, Latvians don't need that dimension to produce good offensive numbers.

I expect the game to continue between the margins of 5 to 10 for a while, but Latvia to win at the end with around 20 points difference by a last quarter push.

Latvia -15 1.952 regular stakes
Someone can wake up latvia? They go to sleep on the 4th. I think they thought basketball you play 3 quarters...
Stupid players stupid team
Ends of 3rd almost 30+
End of the game -6
Wt...
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Old 04-09-17, 14:57   #95
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There were only two players who scores in Latvia and the coqch decided to rest them in Q4

SM-J710FQ cihaz***305;mdan Tapatalk kullan***305;larak g÷nderildi
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Old 04-09-17, 14:57   #96
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Someone can wake up latvia? They go to sleep on the 4th. I think they thought basketball you play 3 quarters...
Stupid players stupid team
Ends of 3rd almost 30+
End of the game -6
Wt...[/QUOTE]
Porgzins,brothers Bertans on bench to rest and you see what happened
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Old 04-09-17, 15:35   #97
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dalibor View Post
Hungary-Czech 1 2.9
I was not watched Hungary match vs Montenegro and dissapointing offensive performance with just 49 point netted,but I have followed their first game and was positively surprised the way they play almost entire game.
Both teams has one outstanding individual,Czech with Satoransky on guard duty and Hungarian Hanga.
Hanga was perfect first half,but skipped second with minor injury.
Vojvoda left great impression on me,he is just member of average Hungarian team Szolnok
but play qualitatively and skilfully,by outplaying Ukic and Popovic.
Odds are tempting and I am on this
Big win for Hungary and reaching next round
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Old 04-09-17, 16:02   #98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macot View Post
Date: 4.9.2017
Sport: Basketball
Event: European Championship
Start time: 19:30
Game: Spain v Romania
Pick: Spain (-37) AH @2,20 or more!
Bookies Offer: Pinnacle @2,23!
Stake: 10/10
Analysis:
Well, I know Polter is going to be dissapointed when he sees how low I estimate their basketball team, but the quality difference here is pretty obvioius. Spain will rotate, they will play with 75% and still win with 40-50 points difference, I am sure about it!
First of all, they already played two stronger teams: Monte Negro in fact are very talented team, but Spain trashed them by 40 points! And Czechs who are not so strong but still better than Romania, were taken care of, too and lost by 37 points.
That is exactly the line I am taking, you can take -34,5 ansd still get good odds, but as you know I never propose bets with odds lower than 2,00.
I can see Spain winning one Q by 20 points and others by 5-10 points which should suffice. My call is 105- 60!
GL
Don't think that will be over 37 points difference for Spain but definitely Spain will score over 94,5 points here and with 1,85 is almost a banker
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Old 04-09-17, 19:33   #99
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Pau is sitting out tonight.
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Old 04-09-17, 19:53   #100
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I think that it is crystal-clear that Spaniards have not approached this game the same way they did vs CZE and MNR. Is it because they know Romania is not a credible opponent, or simply because they don't want to work too much, or because they don't want to humiliate unnecessarily a home team and their supporteurs? IDK, but it's obvious they don't give a ****. -35 almost buried already, and O95 less and less likely.
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Old 04-09-17, 21:02   #101
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Don't think that will be over 37 points difference for Spain but definitely Spain will score over 94,5 points here and with 1,85 is almost a banker
and 91 pts in the end ... just my rotten luck that they slow down in the end
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Old 04-09-17, 21:27   #102
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Quote:
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and 91 pts in the end ... just my rotten luck that they slow down in the end
In fact you have lost the bet in the first half when they scored only 42.
Spain started very slowly.
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Old 04-09-17, 23:05   #103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FJB View Post
I think that it is crystal-clear that Spaniards have not approached this game the same way they did vs CZE and MNR. Is it because they know Romania is not a credible opponent, or simply because they don't want to work too much, or because they don't want to humiliate unnecessarily a home team and their supporteurs? IDK, but it's obvious they don't give a ****. -35 almost buried already, and O95 less and less likely.
It is disgusting. They took pity on them, rested Pau and played a quarter that belonged in circus.
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Old 05-09-17, 07:02   #104
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Poland-France

Poland lost the do, or die game after double overtime, and off day might repair the possible fatigue issues, but as they lost a game which they virtually won, that off day shouldn't do any help to fix the broken hearts. Their next two games are against France and Greece, I don't argue if they will not give their bests, but in the current psychological circumstances, I don't expect them to a factor for a backdoor cover.

First day France was favorited with a similar spread against Finland and it was a double stakes bet to fade them. But, circumstances are drastically different. First of all, Poland is not the host, French team mostly consists of players who are used to play in such tempo, whereas Polish team doesn't have even a single Euroleague player, if I'm not forgotten anybody.

France has offensive rating after first three games at the level of Spain, despite having a cumulatively harder schedule than them. They don't have an intimidating defense whatsoever, but Poland has an extremely thin squad and has a single effective rim attacker to exploit the France's defensive weakness, Ponitka, but he'll be tasked to defend players like De Colo, Jackson, or Fournier most of the time.

French side is much fresher, they should be in much better psychological spot and there is not a single match up, or department which they can't own. I expect them to win by 20+ margin, so the current line deserves double stakes for me.

France -13 1.952 double stakes

Croatia-Spain

Spain had several less hours to prepare for this one, but they didn't spend too much energy coming out of an off day against Romania, anyway. Gasol was rested yesterday, he'll be ready against Croatians. Abrines will most probably keep missing time, but Spain is way deep enough not to feel his absence.

I faded Croatia several times and I don't want to keep repeating myself, but this one should be the one which the things will get dramatic. Spain has bodies to throw to Bogdanovic's direction, there is no way Croatians' extremely soft rim protection and paint defense to prevent Spain's might big's and they are neither young, nor deep to bode with high volume offense of Spain.

Spain had been delivering messages since the start of the tournament and finally, they will play a game which literally means something, to clinch the first place of the group. Croatia seemed to have a solid defense so far, but let's not forget the teams they faced, they don't have the personnel to be a good defensive team and this is the game where it will be shown.

Despite having the easiest schedule of the tournament with Spain, there had been fifteen (!!!) teams which posted better offensive rating than Croatia after the first three games. Spain is several levels better team than Croatia, they seem to be on a mission, and anything but a total dominance will be the biggest surprise of the tournament for me, so far.

Spain -14 1.98 double stakes

More might come, I didn't study all the games yet. Odds and lines are from Pinnacle.
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Old 05-09-17, 07:49   #105
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guys today are Latvia to win? Russia has a 3-0. Latvia's team strong.. Mozgow could not give advice to Porzingis. What do you think gentlemen?

Latvia to win
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Old 05-09-17, 09:27   #106
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Am I missing something about Greece? Greece must win Poland no matter how game against Finland end. Greece-Finland is also late evening game and Poland-Greece is played next day. Odds for Finland 3,0 and even above are anyway nonsense. Everyone knew that after 2 very tough games against France and Slovenia, Finland is going to be very tired against Poland. Now there has been rest day and its 100% sure that Finland wants to win to get better oponent next round and game is again sold out. Here is huge basketball mania going on and basketball is clearly most talked and watched sport in Finland now. I want to thank France also about that, loosing to Finland was just 1 game to them but to basketball culture in Finland it was more important than french could possible imagine. Wilson and Koivisto are doubtful today. Markkanen over 17,5 points seems good bet and I will bet also Finland win.

Spain and France handicaps seems good, even handicaps are quite high and there is no need to high margin win.
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Old 05-09-17, 09:53   #107
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Ukraine-Lithuania

Despite playing against two teams with below average offensive rating numbers and Italy, which is not a top five as well, Ukraine so far posted seventh worst defensive rating numbers. The results of their games seem underish, but it's a fluke as the pace of those games were below average.

Lithuania attacks with simple principles as always and never hesitates to take early shots. They will have a huge offensive rebounding edge in this game as well, which will not necessarily help to the pace of the game, but it will increase the number of possession will be taken by the more talented team of the court.

Lithuania improved a lot after losing the first game to Georgia, but two of their three opponents had bottom seven offenses so far, and still there are eleven teams with better defensive rating numbers than them. And this is far from being surprising as they don't have a legitimate rim protector, they have couple high energy guys at the wings and that's about it.

Ukraine is far from being the most talented team around, but they have a very disciplined offense and they never gave up on following simple principles so far. They will attack Lithuania's rim through pick and rolls, and Lithuania hadn't done a good job so far to contain them.

Kravtsov had been reported not to be able to even sit couple days ago, so he'll probably miss this one as well, but he's irrelevant for my bet. Line is inflated because of low scoring games of Ukraine in first couple days, but they have the momentum now. Two of Lithuania's games passed this line, with the other finishing exactly with total of 151 points. My line is at the middle of 150s.

Over 151 1.943 regular stakes

Greece-Finland

Finland is coming off an emotional win, but they've been in a similar position before and managed to cover the spread as underdogs in the following day against Slovenia. Wilson and Koivisto had been forced to leave the previous game, but team doctor said there is nothing required a surgery, considering they are coming off an off day and tomorrow they will face against Iceland, I wouldn't be surprised to see them trying to give it a go.

People are expecting Greece to play up to their names, but on the court they had been disappointing so far. They are coming off an off day and they might had been probably solved the problems, but it's not enough them to be favorites by couple field goals against the hosts, after watching them in first three games.

Despite only one of them played against Iceland, after the first three games, Greece and Finland posted almost equal offensive rating numbers, whereas Greece managed to post a defensive rating number which is less than two points better than Finland's.

Finland doesn't have material to attack to the rim in the consistent basis, but Koponen finally woke up in the last game. And when he's on top of his game, there is no doubt, which one is better team as long as Greece proves otherwise and when the game is in Helsinki. They have the better names, but Finland proved several times that they are a very good team as hosts, as they covered all the games so far in which they were underdogs, despite not playing particularly good in any of them.

Finland was better than Greece cumulatively so far and they are the underdogs with couple field goals as the hosts, which I disagree. They brought me joy as home underdogs for two consecutive games and Greece doesn't intimidate me not to pull the trigger for tonight, as well.

Finland +5.5 1.97 regular stakes
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Old 05-09-17, 09:56   #108
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Guys ehat do u think about handicap +23 iceland vs slovenia? I see value, doncic and dragic could have some rest..
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Old 05-09-17, 12:13   #109
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I like France-13 too because 1) this game is virtually useless for Poles, 2) those must still be in pain after their self-sabotage, 3) French like to keep their foot on the gas pedal all the time, having crushed many opponents since preparation started.

Not worth "double stakes" as Murat has chosen IMO, but definitely some value here.
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Old 05-09-17, 14:05   #110
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Porzingis 4 fouls mid-way through Q2... I call this brilliant coaching!

Russia is serious business though with Bazarevitch and Kirilenko. When Shved is not doing his headless chicken, they look really solid.

France-12 now, IDK what's going on.
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Old 05-09-17, 14:14   #111
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He kept Porzingis in with 3 fouls in Q2 against Serbia too. Brilliant indeed.
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Old 05-09-17, 16:42   #112
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Russia is serious business though with Bazarevitch and Kirilenko. When Shved is not doing his headless chicken, they look really solid.
I spoke too soon, Russians got doubled 25-50 in 2nd half, massive collapse.

About France-Poland: gotta wonder which team is supposed to be in the doldrums, playing a useless game and without a key player (Slaughter) ... That's precisely why I don't consider France to be a smart and consistent team... Poland playing a OK game, but France is pathetic, 24 pts at HT and playing like it's some classification game...

Big money on them, many spreads, but not confident at all. -13/11 burried already.
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Old 05-09-17, 17:02   #113
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I spoke too soon, Russians got doubled 25-50 in 2nd half, massive collapse.

About France-Poland: gotta wonder which team is supposed to be in the doldrums, playing a useless game and without a key player (Slaughter) ... That's precisely why I don't consider France to be a smart and consistent team... Poland playing a OK game, but France is pathetic, 24 pts at HT and playing like it's some classification game...

Big money on them, many spreads, but not confident at all. -13/11 burried already.
you said the -35 on spain yesterday was 'buried' yet they covered,you do know there are 4 quarters in a game right????
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Old 05-09-17, 17:38   #114
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Heurtel saved my house in helping France get the W, but his last-second turnover (failed nutmeg) erased any profits......

That was quite a pathetic outing by France. If we play again like that in QF that will be our last game, for sure. Fournier pisses me off at times, seriously. Dude can't do anything but playing hero ball and attacking the basket... and when he's off, he will keep shooting, Ó la Westbrick. It's tiring.

BTW, I have a growing interest for Israel tonight vs Georgia. I've watched most of their games (Israel's), and they suck. They suck big time. They look like Sacramento Kings at their worst (not coincidentally Casspi has played in both teams). But they have fire in their belly. Vs Germany they played awfully during most of the game, but they managed to grab the W with their gusto and crowd support. And with the help of refs too, a bit. Georgia has been very unconvincing since the beginning. They are obviously deeper and more talented than Israel, but, hm, I feel Georgia may not be able to handle the headwind. IDK... Perhaps it's better to skip, as both teams are very moody...
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Old 05-09-17, 19:32   #115
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Adding a late pick, will start in a hour, preview will be short.

Israel-Georgia

These teams are in the lower half of the offensive rating numbers. Israel is in the bottom half of pace statistics, whereas Georgia doesn't belong top ten as well. This will be a very intense game, both teams lack reliable and consistent perimeter shooters. Georgia's strength is the front court and I expect them to lower the tempo and attack to the paint, whereas Israel has two point guards with zero outside shooting and their first three offensive choices are inside players as well. I expect a grit and grind game and the total should not pass 150, unless an overtime comes to the rescue.

Under 155.5 1.934 regular stakes
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Old 05-09-17, 20:55   #116
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Adding a late pick, will start in a hour, preview will be short.

Israel-Georgia

These teams are in the lower half of the offensive rating numbers. Israel is in the bottom half of pace statistics, whereas Georgia doesn't belong top ten as well. This will be a very intense game, both teams lack reliable and consistent perimeter shooters. Georgia's strength is the front court and I expect them to lower the tempo and attack to the paint, whereas Israel has two point guards with zero outside shooting and their first three offensive choices are inside players as well. I expect a grit and grind game and the total should not pass 150, unless an overtime comes to the rescue.

Under 155.5 1.934 regular stakes
I don't know where you get your data from, because honestly from the seat of my pants I would say Israel is in the top 5 in terms of pace. As you righly point out, they lack reliable shooters (and don't like half-court offense), which means they like to run. They don't have many weapons and they know that attacking the basket is their best bet. That doesn't mean your under bet is wrong, because they are not very efficient, and Georgia may try to slow the pace, but I really wonder where you get your data for stating Israel is not fast-paced....
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Old 05-09-17, 21:16   #117
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I don't know where you get your data from, because honestly from the seat of my pants I would say Israel is in the top 5 in terms of pace. As you righly point out, they lack reliable shooters (and don't like half-court offense), which means they like to run. They don't have many weapons and they know that attacking the basket is their best bet. That doesn't mean your under bet is wrong, because they are not very efficient, and Georgia may try to slow the pace, but I really wonder where you get your data for stating Israel is not fast-paced....
https://twitter.com/StatsLi/status/904996451662655488
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Old 05-09-17, 22:46   #118
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Thanks. Assuming those statistics are correct (correct pace formula), something is flawed somewhere in your analysis. Because, as you will probably have noticed after watching said game, Israel is a fast-paced team, possibly the fastest of them all (whole EB)! I think the bias lies in the fact that there is a gap between "will" and "can". Their plan has always been to run the floor like mad (to cash in on their few strengths), but in their first 2 games (Italy and Lithuania) it didn't work, because they were muzzled by two good defenses. Against Germany they had a little bit more success in implementing their strategy. And vs Georgia it was expectable that they would have some more success still, because Georgians are not a very tough and disciplined team, as we had seen against Ukraine just before...

Could it be that you had not watched any game of Israel before and bet on data alone? If so, that would be quite a risky business...

Please don't take it personally Murat, but I think it was not a good bet at all...
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Old 06-09-17, 00:33   #119
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Thanks. Assuming those statistics are correct (correct pace formula), something is flawed somewhere in your analysis. Because, as you will probably have noticed after watching said game, Israel is a fast-paced team, possibly the fastest of them all (whole EB)! I think the bias lies in the fact that there is a gap between "will" and "can". Their plan has always been to run the floor like mad (to cash in on their few strengths), but in their first 2 games (Italy and Lithuania) it didn't work, because they were muzzled by two good defenses. Against Germany they had a little bit more success in implementing their strategy. And vs Georgia it was expectable that they would have some more success still, because Georgians are not a very tough and disciplined team, as we had seen against Ukraine just before...

Could it be that you had not watched any game of Israel before and bet on data alone? If so, that would be quite a risky business...

Please don't take it personally Murat, but I think it was not a good bet at all...
I watched all games of Israel, sometimes fully concentrated, sometimes in circulation with others, but that's not the point. These advanced stats are legit, but what I did that I forgot three games is a extremely small size, which makes these stats irrelevant. They can only be used to compare two teams, which played against similar, or even same opponents, but that's all. Three games is not enough to make a conclusion about the team's mentality and tendencies.

Pace stat is not that related with "will" and "can". If a team wants to run, than they will run, if they can't run because of early fouls, or something, than they will try to finish the offense in the first 10-15 seconds. Lithuania was a big threat of offensive rebounding, but neither Italy or Germany were such threats. In short words, if they wanted to run the floor like mad, or if they were the fastest team of the tournament, no matter how intimidating were the opposing defenses, they wouldn't have the ninth smallest team pace after first three games.

Of course it was not a good bet at all, it lost with freaking 40 points. But, this is still a long tournament, I'm still on plus overall in the tournament with a roi around %7, so the important thing for me to take the lesson and not repeat the same mistake. Get back to the basics, don't put too much importance to the stats, as they can't tell enough after four games and keep grinding. Today was a bad day, but thankfully tomorrow is a new one.
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Old 06-09-17, 10:55   #120
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Slovenia-France

Even though it seems complicated, actually there is not too much to calculate for. Georgia-Italy game will be played later and even though Italians have a world class coach, neither of those two teams are intimidating enough, for any of these teams to try to sort out what will be the result of an upcoming game and arrange their game plans accordingly. Both will play to win, no doubt, just Slovenes can live with a maximum of two points loss.

As I wrote in the first day of the tournament, Kokoskov is not an overish coach at all. But, he seems to adapt himself properly to take the best out of the squad he owns. Dragic and Doncic will continue to attack the rim at will, and they'll mostly faced against soft defenders, or no rim protection. Kokoskov will keep doing what he was doing best so far, to use the correct combination of players to space the floor for his offensive facilitators and his role players to find empty looks and contribute.

Some might argue this French team to have even bigger offensive potential than Spain, which hadn't been reflected on the court yet. Slovenia is not a good defensive team, they don't have material to protect the rim and both of the back court members are the main offensive weapons of the team, so understandably they had been taking it easy at the defensive end. Except Muric in a favorable match up, I don't rate any of their main rotation guys as plus defenders.

French team is coming of an "off" day, they seemed to look ahead for this one. I don't see any chance for them to win this game by a good defense, as they simply can't do that. Slovenian team is not too much different. Both teams will push the tempo and don't hesitate to create early offense by attacking to the rim and create from there. Line is not too much valuable, or anything, but as long as nailing open shots becomes a tragicomical issue, it should be taken down.

Over 161.5 1.934 regular stakes
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