I finished with NHL season. I tested my new model for NHL. At the end I finished with +157 units and the yield of +1.10%.
I will move slowly to MLB but I will write couple of analysis here and you can check my daily video, where I comment all games with my projected lines.
Today's NHL Video - March 28th 2017
Toronto vs Florida
My Projected Lines and the odds
Florida lost yesterday in Buffalo and bookmakers offered them at around 2.45, but odds dropped and we can still get them for around 2.35. My model has Florida at 1.90 in this game and gives them around 52.6%. I expect, that bookmakers pay me around 0.90 units for every single unit played. They pay me more - around 1.35 and because of that I have mathematical value on Florida.
Florida is basically in must win situation. In last 2 games before yesterday, they played very good hockey and they even beat Chicago by 7-1 at home, but yesterday they lost in Buffalo, which is always tricky team at home. But still, Florida is not playing bad ice hockey. They score 3 goals per game in last five games and they also make 31.8 shots per game, which is 5.2 shots more than their opponents. Two weeks ago they played against Toronto and they beat them by 7-2. Toronto played with their best goalie Andersen.
But today, Toronto will be without their best goalie, who is injured for this game. They will start with Mcelhinney, who allowed 3 goals on 22 shots in last game after he replaced Andersen and his SV% in last 5 games is 0.885. Toronto lost last game against Buffalo too and despite they are 3-2 in last 5 games, they were outplayed by -5.4 shots per game.
Reason for pick
Both teams lost against Buffalo in the last game, but Florida is playing little bit better right now. They put a lot of pressure and they outplayed other teams by more than 5 shots per game in last five games. Toronto on the other side was outplayed by other teams an they will start with their backup goalie, who has SV of 0.885 in last 5 games. Florida beat them two weeks ago by 7-2 and I think they can do it again, especially now, when Toronto is missing their first goalie. Based on my numbers, wrong team is underdog.
Columbus vs Buffalo
Buffalo beat Florida yesterday and they won 4 out of last 5 games, but we must also understand, that they are playing really good mainly because of good defence and hot Lehner, who has SV% of 0.941 in last 4 games. But he will not play today. Buffalo will rest their best goalie and will start with Nilsson, who is just 2-10 on the road (SV% 0.910).
Columbus on the other side will go with their best goalie, who has been amazing in last couple of games. His SV% in last 4 games is 0.980 and he has amazing home record of 24-8. Columbus is amazing at home with the record of 27-11 and goal difference +1.1.
Buffalo is playing this game after they beat Florida yesterday and they are on 0 days rest. In this situation, they are just 6-10. Columbus on the other side will be well rested (2 days rest) and they are 12-3 this season, when they had 3 days rest.
With Columbus not only that we have much better team, but we have rested team and a team, that will play with their best and red hot goalie. Buffalo on the other side will be tired from yesterday and they will start with their backup goalie. They are also mission couple of players. I think Columbus should win this by 2 or more goals.
Play Columbus -1.5
P.S. Why always late picks and analysis? Because goalie is the most important player for every NHL team and if the team changes the goalie everything changes. Coaches usually give out very late information about goalies.
We can not do anything about this. For me is very important if Al Montoya starts instead of Carey Price. This is the only reason. For me would be much easier to write analysis in the morning. But I simply can not do it without all important information.