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Spain/Portugal
Spanish and Portuguese league picks and analysis discussed here. Premier and 1.div.

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Old 21-09-17, 09:57   #31
litost
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fully agree ... but thats what ive been saying form last season .. real won titles mainly couse barsa was off and galons/quality were enough ...

at CL ..knock out couple of good games plus galons all u need .. and they face rivals ag wich they do not have to propose .. just raw quality ..

now reg la liga i think things are changing ... tv money plus crisis off ... sytartingto make middle class sides way more competitive .... real and barsa will not win games just by showing like last decade ....


reg siviglia i did not watch .. expected more goals .. i guess too early season and LP is not so bad defending ...
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Old 21-09-17, 10:00   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HeatAr View Post
What a disgraceful penalty for Athletic, still Oblak is one of the best keepers for penalties and was able to easily deny Aduritz's bad shot.
w/o oblak and kepa this game would have have 5 at least ...
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Old 21-09-17, 10:11   #33
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after the missed penalty i knew it that Madrid gonna win this Bilbao Bilbao still far away to being a big team

what about today games Litost

Levante is hard nut to crack at home also Villareal at home would be a public bet
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Old 21-09-17, 10:20   #34
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i like getafe ... celta is a bit of a mess ..

alaves had clear chances ... and geta is better defending and has players to take adv of spaces ahead ...

of c this celta like most primera middle class have improved squad and has lots of fire upfront with newcomers plus those from last season ..but odds clearly point to value on azulones ...

the other games have not looked deeper ..shall do it later ...

not that im having great conf after last night big fail with those big handis .. on real and siviglia ... :/

my leans are villareal to win .. coaches 2 classes above and villa is back ....espanyol will just do the usual ...good positioning wait something go in their favour ..problem is espanyol has soem cracking players upfront and odds are crap ..

<<<<<<< >>>>>>>>>

Villareal -.75 1.9 10.7u / 1/1 6u / -1.25 2.75 8u / over 2.25 1.75 7u / wg 5u
grogets on cruise mood last games.... they look usually reliebal eunder escriba ... new faces like rodri and bacca plus castillejo in form and "iniesta" look more than enough vs a ery fav side over year with awdull h2h ... that does not look like having solid defending liek last season yet imo have players upfront to create and score goals on their won .. so i expect goals and hw ...

Getafe +1 1.65 11u / (0) 3.7 7u / 2/2 8 3u / over 2.25 1.75 8u / -1 11 2u /
2200
levante (0) 2.2 10.3u / wg dg 5u / over 2.25 1.75 9u / -1 4u / 1/1 3u
granotas faced similar or even stronger oposition than donostia outfit ... miss lerma for this one .. always look quite sharp going forwards wich vs a side like erreala always with many units above ball line is danger .. morales is back and hes a sure thing to pass high def line ... so is ivi .. guest shall rotate in both flanks and zubeldia might replace prieto/zuru ... reserved prognosis but we belive host shall not lose in game with g ...

2000
valladolid (0) 2.1 10.u / over 2.25 1.75 9u / wg dg 7u / o 3.5 5u
both rotate .. guest better & wider suqad ..both off coaches... probably even with lower tempo as this cup is meaningless ... goals on cards like league game ...

Lugo +.75 1.75 10u / under 1.67 8u
both rotate ..host seek revenge ..but guest will not just roll on ... probably 2nd gear bullsheet all game long ..at the end someone will go thru .. !!

levante - real .. probably values on host in game with goals ... txuri urdin last seaosn and starting this one great aaway numbers ..they go for it and usually pays ... but mainly vs sides taht have holes and cant defend .. vs a side like granotas well built and that can counter could have probs ...

Last edited by litost; 21-09-17 at 11:30.
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Old 21-09-17, 10:26   #35
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Getafe could be under 1,5 at ht and just at second open up for goals
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Old 21-09-17, 15:11   #36
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Indeed value looks to be on Getafe, odds for Celta are dropping and value for Getafe increases, Getafe +0.75 AH @1.92 bet365 is the bet IMO. Looking at the games they played so far - they lost by a single goal to Barcelona and Sevilla, drew with Athletic at San Mames (which is very impressive) and beat Leganes. Looking at the odds for these games they were underdogs. Looking at Celta's games they lost to Sociedad, Betis and Espanyol and beat Alaves, who are yet to score and have lost all their games, by a single goal. Gaku Shibasaki will be out for Getafe for a while after sustaining an injury against Barcelona, Álvaro Jiménez will take his place. Nemanja Radoja is out for Celta for a second consecutive game with a knee injury.
I forgot to mention just one thing, which is putting me off taking the straight DC on Getafe and it is that usually in the encounters between these two the home team wins (last year is a major exception when you look at the H2H), now I believe that current form is much more important that H2H, but nevertheless I prefer this bet, which is a little bit more cautious.

Last edited by HeatAr; 21-09-17 at 16:15.
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Old 23-09-17, 00:01   #37
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some toughts ....

cheese ...

1300
atletico -.75 1.85 10u / 1/1 2.4 7u / -1.25 2.5 6u / under (3) 1.62 8u /
host are too strong atm vs siviglia good team feelings yet just scraping results .... guest will have not best def line with some missings but only received one so far in league ..and midf will count with pizarro back ... smells like 1/2-0
1615
Alaves +2.5 1.85 11u / G 2.1 9u / +1.25 3.5 8u / (0) 15 3u
way off line odds ... alaves results are far from supoused quality and in agame lost aforehand the anxiety and pressure may be off ... host have some of the best youngsters on ranks from all over some of them came from "fabrica" ranks .. they also have exp .. .and now they have new coach watching tough still not in bench ... real should bounce back .. theyll probably do ... but there is some big amount of value on a game not being so easy as it looks ...
say real shows .. and pacheco ..or pedraza ..medran .. sobrino ..do as well .. we have a game ... ok so host are not entrosed ..so many changes .. pressure ... but well ..same can be said of whites ... same schol play ground atacking business ..now they do not even count with left flank marcelo who is their main atackin system aka .."marcelo" system ... theo is out so nacho shall start there ... good deefending but not so much atacking ...

1830
Malaga (0) 2.3 9.99u / over 2.25 @ 2 10u / 1/1 3u / o 3.5 4.2 6u
host pressured ... under fraud coach still with more than ok squad vs athletic that usually suffer in south and east .. and is missing valverde at helm losing control of games ... goals on cards ..both shall score ... aduritz on call but shall not start ...

Barsa -1.25 1.58 11u / (-2) 2.3 10u / (-3) 5u
hard to see cules sliping at this close pitch ..its a derby but not so much .. guest with soem fresh legs with rakitic , sr , umtiti and suarez back ..girona after first two early goals starting to feel lack of quality upfront .. vs solid cules this could be big factor couse under current messi form they shall score either way ...

1615
reus (0) 2 10u / under 2 1.9 7u
not easy pitch ..allready defeated better and more competitive than reds numancia .. .. host pitch not in best conditions ... smells like host could edge this ...


1800
Sporting -.75 1.9 10.8u / 1/1 2.7 6u / -1.25 2.7 6u / over 2.25 1.93 8u /
time get back wining ways after two bad results for host with so much fire and quality on ranks plus pride vs a southers side strugling at both ends...

Granada -.25 1.85 10.7u / 1/1 3.5 5u / -1.25 3.85 4u / over 2.25 1.93 8u /
host winless aim hight to add by 3 vs irregular cordoba that never won in this pitch ... host shall make soem changes .. like saunier in dfense starts ...
both better going forwards ..

alcorcon +.75 1.8 10.8u / (0) 3.8 6u
yellow fever deserves more credit vs tete that looks like leaking goals and missing them from the three kubasakhi , lozano & amath ... guest full squad ... host almost full only miss villar and suso .. later important ..

Last edited by litost; 23-09-17 at 00:15.
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Old 23-09-17, 21:04   #38
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some toughts cheers


1200
espanyol -.25 1.72 10u / under 1 ht 1.92 6u / under 2.75 1.65 7u /
pericos upper hand couse depor under mel leak goals and are not best travellers while opsition looked solid again at madrigal and have huge quality on ranks... there could be not many goals couse mel will try to improve their def system and host never atack with many units and have this flat game all over ... but could nick it ... cornella not best huntin ground for gallegos wining last 10 years ago ...

1615
geta-villa under 2.25 1.9 8u / under ht 1.72 6u
hard to pick a winner .. but it could be low sc draw ..both very hard to get caught off guard ..grogets with many CS last season on road ..azulones are not free sco machine ..and miss gaku their sharpest atacket atm... both shall rotate a bit ...

1830
Las Palmas -.25 1.85 10u / over (2) 1.73 8u / wg 4u / -1 3u / o 3.5 4u
pio pio with many injured yet wide squad and many options sp upfront .. trunk is there with new arg keeper who imporoves last seaon ..aquilani plus viera/calleri ..the rest can be replaced .... vitolo out ..so what ..the guy is just spendin some time at home be4 joining atleti..
lega .. not sure ..improved squad but game keeps being far from sharp in both ends .. not amusing ..and usually end up receiving ...


Eibar -.25 1.92 11.7u / over 2.25 1.82 10u / 1/1 3.8 5u / -1 4.4 6u / wg 6u / -2 10 4u / o 3.5 3.75 5u /
as jimmybe would put it ...fgggettaboutit! ... aimpar aka eibar coems from great display at NC..with enrich looking in better fitness and receives celestes having some def frailties..disoriented at times and dizzy jony mallo and alvarez will have problems at this pitch with locasl usual all over display ..but guest have lots of fire upfront and are pressured by results so may nick at least once ... both with same squad as last match ... galvez was great vs catalans so ramis despite out of injury shall rest...


2045
Real (0) 1.66 10u / over 2.75 1.9 9u / over 3.25 2.5 6u / 1/1 3.7 4u / over (4) 4 4u / wg 3u
highlyanticipaterererererererrrrRRRRRR at anoeta where txuriurdin face ches and tough locasl are decimated in the back they deserve soem credit couse their game is based on ball possesion and all the imp units shall be there rec influential right back young ace plus
oyarzabal .... host come from two defeats and shall be fired while ches game looks rock solid and shall take adv of suual spaces left by locals with very fast adnd sharp counter game ... hence goals on both ends are likely ...



1200
Huesca -.25 @ 2 10.9u / over 2.25 1.75 8.5u / o 3.5 3.6 5u / -1 4.8 3u / wg 5u / 1/1 4 3u
blaugranas should deliver vs pucela outfit ..quite sharp at this time of season yet receiving too easily - two outings at soft def places like cultu and siviglia II - wich may be a handi in such a hot place vs a team with lots of quality upfront ... both top squads in 2a ..last season at reg league huesca won both ties..this will be diferent than cup both with best available ...

1600
Rayo -.75 2.15 10.4u / -1.25 3.1 8u / 1/1 2.95 6u / over 2.25 1,65 9.4u / -2 5.6 4u 7 wg 5u / o 3.5 3.2 5u .
fgtbit ....rayito mau use cultu lack of bottle for 2a to bounce back ..leoneses play open yet lack quality in back ..even more for this one with gianni out whiles host have som 1a atackers on ranks and overall a great squad yet come from not great start .. on paper coach si greter factor on guest but quality shall have a say .. here ..

1800
Oviedo (0) 1.7 10u
carballons may take adv of low confidence and missing layer on host with coach on the edge ...guets shall repeat line up the beat cadiz... they did not lose at top paces like almeria and gijon ..whiles host are finding it hard to make goasl and imp missings upfront and midf do not help ...

2000
Cadiz -.25 1.85 10.7u / under ht 1.62 6u / under 2.25 1.72 7u / -1 4u
amarillos shall edge sorianos in a very tight match ..host still miss 3 inf from last season units like sankare jmari and alvaro yet have wide suad and improved it this season .... guest are very strong early season travell bit short upfront w/0 guille and del moral but 11 will be similar to one delivering thus far ..but numancia home away has always been diferent thing ... awfull record of castellanos vs andalucians lately ...


Nastic +1 1.65 11u / over (2) 1.78 7u / (0) 3.9 5u / over 3.25 4u / 2/2 3u / -1 2u / wg 2u
cheese ... guest under intirm coach that might stay as he has exp on benches 2b catalans .... host struggling to get results while guest have a squads with lots of quality that started bad... great numbers last two season vs maños from nastic .... guest rec inf cb and shall field strong pair at back ... guest waiting for febas ....
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Old 24-09-17, 10:44   #39
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I see La Coruna with an attacking system today. Are they trying to win all 3 points? I know that Andone is playing when his team is rely on counter-attacks and today he isn't in first eleven. Espanyol is not crossing a good form and the guest may try something.
I will try both teams to score @ 1.85.
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