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Old 12-05-18, 11:25   #1
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Default Sweden Allsvenskan 12/05/2018 - 14/05/2018

Brommapojkarna-GIF Sundsvall

One game today, and I can't for the world understand why the odds on Sundsvall are rising. I was tempted to bet big on them already at 1.75. Now at 1.95 I will take it without any hesitation. Good value here on the home team, imho.

Just check the standings. Sundsvall got it all. They are the better team, they have better form, they have a stronger squad, they play at home, things are going well for them at the moment. Ok, they lost 4-3 in the last game against Hammarby, and those numbers could have been worse, much much worse... Sundsvall was 4-0 down, but then came back and made it 4-3 and also had 4-4 ruled out for offside (correctly though), but in all honesty like 8-2 would have been a more "correct" score.

But I mainly pin that down on Hammarby being a real force at home this season. And ok, Sundsvalls defense isn't the best in allsvenskan, far from it, but they do ok. Sundsvall also have a much better offense this season, and that is also why I think they will win this game. Quality wise there isn't a massive difference between these two teams, but with some new smart signings, Sundsvall have for sure ramped up their offense this season.

So what can I say about BP? Well, even for allsvenskan this team is really weak. Don't be fooled by that 1-0 win against Djurgården. It's one of those things that happen in football, and in hindsight I'm pretty convinced Djurgårdens focus was already at that cup final against Malmö, which they won 3-0.

BP is a weak team, they and Trelleborg who both are new comers from Superettan will struggle big time this season. Superettan of yesteryear obviously wasn't all that great. Sundsvall did play at home against Trelleborg, which I see a pretty much similiar as BP. They only won that game 1-0, but it should have been a much bigger win, something like 3-0, 4-0. Sundsvall really missed some good scoring chances in that game.

I can see BP parking the bus and get a lucky 0-0 here, but much more likey they will lose this, considering Sundsvalls current good form and high confidence. I expect a pretty comfortable home win at a good odds.
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Old 12-05-18, 11:40   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Palini View Post
Brommapojkarna-GIF Sundsvall

One game today, and I can't for the world understand why the odds on Sundsvall are rising. I was tempted to bet big on them already at 1.75. Now at 1.95 I will take it without any hesitation. Good value here on the home team, imho.

Just check the standings. Sundsvall got it all. They are the better team, they have better form, they have a stronger squad, they play at home, things are going well for them at the moment. Ok, they lost 4-3 in the last game against Hammarby, and those numbers could have been worse, much much worse... Sundsvall was 4-0 down, but then came back and made it 4-3 and also had 4-4 ruled out for offside (correctly though), but in all honesty like 8-2 would have been a more "correct" score.

But I mainly pin that down on Hammarby being a real force at home this season. And ok, Sundsvalls defense isn't the best in allsvenskan, far from it, but they do ok. Sundsvall also have a much better offense this season, and that is also why I think they will win this game. Quality wise there isn't a massive difference between these two teams, but with some new smart signings, Sundsvall have for sure ramped up their offense this season.

So what can I say about BP? Well, even for allsvenskan this team is really weak. Don't be fooled by that 1-0 win against Djurgården. It's one of those things that happen in football, and in hindsight I'm pretty convinced Djurgårdens focus was already at that cup final against Malmö, which they won 3-0.

BP is a weak team, they and Trelleborg who both are new comers from Superettan will struggle big time this season. Superettan of yesteryear obviously wasn't all that great. Sundsvall did play at home against Trelleborg, which I see a pretty much similiar as BP. They only won that game 1-0, but it should have been a much bigger win, something like 3-0, 4-0. Sundsvall really missed some good scoring chances in that game.

I can see BP parking the bus and get a lucky 0-0 here, but much more likey they will lose this, considering Sundsvalls current good form and high confidence. I expect a pretty comfortable home win at a good odds.
Tnx man. Just correct the first sentence. It is GIF Sundsvall - Brommapojkarna, not Brommapojkarna - GIF Sundsvall

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Old 12-05-18, 15:16   #3
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Yes,for me is also Sundsvall win but i hate when they made a program and game which is 95% home win is only play that day.This separatly from others in round are allways suspicious(result is almost 99% for betting houses).

FT:3-0

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Old 12-05-18, 17:18   #4
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Originally Posted by Palini View Post
Brommapojkarna-GIF Sundsvall

One game today, and I can't for the world understand why the odds on Sundsvall are rising. I was tempted to bet big on them already at 1.75. Now at 1.95 I will take it without any hesitation. Good value here on the home team, imho.

Just check the standings. Sundsvall got it all. They are the better team, they have better form, they have a stronger squad, they play at home, things are going well for them at the moment. Ok, they lost 4-3 in the last game against Hammarby, and those numbers could have been worse, much much worse... Sundsvall was 4-0 down, but then came back and made it 4-3 and also had 4-4 ruled out for offside (correctly though), but in all honesty like 8-2 would have been a more "correct" score.

But I mainly pin that down on Hammarby being a real force at home this season. And ok, Sundsvalls defense isn't the best in allsvenskan, far from it, but they do ok. Sundsvall also have a much better offense this season, and that is also why I think they will win this game. Quality wise there isn't a massive difference between these two teams, but with some new smart signings, Sundsvall have for sure ramped up their offense this season.

So what can I say about BP? Well, even for allsvenskan this team is really weak. Don't be fooled by that 1-0 win against Djurgården. It's one of those things that happen in football, and in hindsight I'm pretty convinced Djurgårdens focus was already at that cup final against Malmö, which they won 3-0.

BP is a weak team, they and Trelleborg who both are new comers from Superettan will struggle big time this season. Superettan of yesteryear obviously wasn't all that great. Sundsvall did play at home against Trelleborg, which I see a pretty much similiar as BP. They only won that game 1-0, but it should have been a much bigger win, something like 3-0, 4-0. Sundsvall really missed some good scoring chances in that game.

I can see BP parking the bus and get a lucky 0-0 here, but much more likey they will lose this, considering Sundsvalls current good form and high confidence. I expect a pretty comfortable home win at a good odds.
Good work Thanks for sharing your thoughts
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Old 13-05-18, 08:35   #5
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Hello Guys

My analysis so less , but with strong facts ))

Djurgardens IF - Dalkurd FF
Full Event Home -0.75 (AH) @ 1.900
1/10 PINNACLE
Football / Sweden / Kick off: 13 May 2018, 13:00


Djurgardens will try to end their streak with 3 lost today and need positive result quickly.
Opponent are relevant for it. Djurgardens closed same streak at home 10 time with results: 7 won 1 drow and 2 lost (Kalmar 0-3 and Sundsvall 1-3)
It should be noted that all 7 matches was ended with Over2.5 and 6 with won by AH -1.5 summary goals 21-3

So, Djurgardens more hungry here ))

It should be noted thatthe fact that Dalkurd scored two goal in last away match against Orebro. This is hardly possible, but he can score one goal
Offer for Djurgardens +Over2.5 by Bet365 @ 2.60


For more information and a pick check our BA thread

Good Luck
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Old 13-05-18, 13:07   #6
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Four more games today, but nothing that really comes into my mind concerning any bets.

Djurgården-Dalkurd

On paper this looks like a solid home win, and Djurgården should be back on track after than convincing 3-0 win in the cup final, add also the return of Mrabti who is extremly importatn for their offensive game and this should be a clear home win, but I'm not all convinced. One probably said the same thing when they beat Malmö the first time in allsvenskan 3-0 and after that they had one draw and three losses...

Dalkurd also a newcomer this season, but in my opinion, not as clueless as BP and Trellborg. They have a poor defence and a pathetic goalkeeper, that has cost them many points already. Offensively they oppose a threat on a whole other level than Trelleborg and BP, but I really don't see them getting much out of this game against Djurgården.

Anyhow, no value what so ever on the hometeam here so I'll skip this one all together.

IFK Göteborg-Norrköping is as open as the odds suggest, imho. I can't pick a winner here.

Trelleborg-Malmö FF

This is the only game where I consider a bet, and that is on 1X. Don't get me wrong, Malmö is the better team here, but there is good value on the home team. IF Malmö was a runaway winning train like they where last season, I would have understod these sub 1.50-odds here. Now it's nothing short of a joke. Malmö is a mess right now, and coach Magnus Pehrsson could be sacked any day now. I loss of points in Trelleborg will for sure put the last nail in his coffin. Something is very wrong in Malmö at the moment. Including that cup final loss, they have now already lost equal amont of games that they did all season last year in allsvenskan. And for this game they have three new injuries reported. First goal keeper Dahlin, defender Safari and CM Bachirou.

There's not that far between Trelleborg and Malmö so it's a bit of almost derby rivalry here, at least from Trelleborgs part. This is a very limited team, but at this point of time, and considering Malmö's poor start, I'm not ruling out an upset here, and odds are more than worth a shot, imho and that 0-3 loss in the cup final will not help Malmö one bit here today.

And then we have Örebro-Hammarby...

Also look like a very open game. Two teams in good form and with high confidence. I'm sure Hammarby are good, we have not just had really good results, we have played some really good football as well. I'm not all convinced Örebro has though. To my defense I have not seen much of their games so far this season, but a win against Östersund and two draws against AIK and Norrköping is good, but apart from that, I think many of their results so far has been pretty expected. Wins against Trelleborg, Dalkurd and Sirius who are all down there right at the bottom of allsvenskan. Are they really a top team material? I know they have been very effective in front of goal so far. We will se. I hope I will see something similar to that Hammarby-Sundsvall game here, but perhaps with a slight difference in the last 20 minutes.

Still no bets for me, since there's really no value in Hammarbys odds, imho.
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Old 13-05-18, 13:09   #7
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Quote:
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Tnx man. Just correct the first sentence. It is GIF Sundsvall - Brommapojkarna, not Brommapojkarna - GIF Sundsvall

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Yeah, of course. Sorry, my bad. I hope I didn't confuse anyone there...
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Old 14-05-18, 09:15   #8
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Is Kalmar trusted today vs Sirius? Absolutely everything points for HW, but... you know
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Old 14-05-18, 09:54   #9
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Is Kalmar trusted today vs Sirius? Absolutely everything points for HW, but... you know
Yeah, well. Yes, everything points for hw here. Sirius is a mess right now, but they are far from BP and Trelleborg-bad, imo, even if the standings suggest that they are. Lots of injuries at the moment. They have though accuired a new goalkeeper, since their first and only(?) goalkeeper Joshua Wicks was sacked after being caught in a doping test for cocaine... The goalkeeper trainer was then thrown into the goal, but they now have signed 39 yo. Joakim Wulff who played in Superettan last season.

That should be a step up from the goalkeeper trainer, but Im not sure it will help Sirius that much.

I stil don't see much value at these relative low odds on Kalmar, so I will pass on this game and go for a big bet on AIK instead.

I don't know what has happend to Östersund after that phenomenal Europa Leage run. They have only lost Bachirou (of importance), but besides that the squad is intact, but all that free flowing fotball from them seem totally gone this season. The big stars Ghoddos and Sema are ice cold at the moment, and they still keep that possession passing game around, but it's way to slow nowadays.

Against a discplined and denfensiv strong AIK I don't see them getting nothing out of this game (since they don't have the defense themselves to go for a 0-0 draw). And even if they could change their game plan, I don't think they will. Graham Potter just continue the way Östersund play no matter what.
Pretty much everything is going AIK:s way at the moment. They are still undefeated and are high in confidence, and I think they will try to make extra damn sure to go for three points here, or they will slip further behind Hammarby. They have now 8 straight wins at home in Solna, in allsvenskan. Heck, they have even yet to conced a goal at home this season.

AIK knows how to pick Östersund apart. Just let them pass the ball around, defend hard and then hit them hard on the counter. This should fit AIK like a glove and this game has 2-0 written all over it, odds are juicy with value, imho. And since it's a win-win for me, I will bet hard on AIK tonight.
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Old 14-05-18, 12:44   #10
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Yeah, well. Yes, everything points for hw here. Sirius is a mess right now, but they are far from BP and Trelleborg-bad, imo, even if the standings suggest that they are. Lots of injuries at the moment. They have though accuired a new goalkeeper, since their first and only(?) goalkeeper Joshua Wicks was sacked after being caught in a doping test for cocaine... The goalkeeper trainer was then thrown into the goal, but they now have signed 39 yo. Joakim Wulff who played in Superettan last season.

That should be a step up from the goalkeeper trainer, but Im not sure it will help Sirius that much.

I stil don't see much value at these relative low odds on Kalmar, so I will pass on this game and go for a big bet on AIK instead.

I don't know what has happend to Östersund after that phenomenal Europa Leage run. They have only lost Bachirou (of importance), but besides that the squad is intact, but all that free flowing fotball from them seem totally gone this season. The big stars Ghoddos and Sema are ice cold at the moment, and they still keep that possession passing game around, but it's way to slow nowadays.

Against a discplined and denfensiv strong AIK I don't see them getting nothing out of this game (since they don't have the defense themselves to go for a 0-0 draw). And even if they could change their game plan, I don't think they will. Graham Potter just continue the way Östersund play no matter what.
Pretty much everything is going AIK:s way at the moment. They are still undefeated and are high in confidence, and I think they will try to make extra damn sure to go for three points here, or they will slip further behind Hammarby. They have now 8 straight wins at home in Solna, in allsvenskan. Heck, they have even yet to conced a goal at home this season.

AIK knows how to pick Östersund apart. Just let them pass the ball around, defend hard and then hit them hard on the counter. This should fit AIK like a glove and this game has 2-0 written all over it, odds are juicy with value, imho. And since it's a win-win for me, I will bet hard on AIK tonight.
Thank you for the updates.What is hapening with Elfsborg?Aren't odds for them to win too high?Or I miss something.Were they typicall home team?
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Old 14-05-18, 13:55   #11
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Thank you for the updates.What is hapening with Elfsborg?Aren't odds for them to win too high?Or I miss something.Were they typicall home team?
I think Häcken are rightfully favorites here. Elfsborg very much indeed was a typical home team, but they have also slowly but steadily lost power. They always used to be up there in the top six, season after season but not last season, and probably not this season either. They have failed with their big signings in recent years, and are slowly regressing both in the standings, but also economically.

They still have a very good midfield with the likes of Jebali, Lundevall and Ishizaki, imho, but that is also all. No real good strikers and defence looks shaky. The change of coach also have had no positive effect yet.
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Old 14-05-18, 14:51   #12
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Odds on Kalmar are rising...
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Old 14-05-18, 15:02   #13
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I think Häcken are rightfully favorites here. Elfsborg very much indeed was a typical home team, but they have also slowly but steadily lost power. They always used to be up there in the top six, season after season but not last season, and probably not this season either. They have failed with their big signings in recent years, and are slowly regressing both in the standings, but also economically.

They still have a very good midfield with the likes of Jebali, Lundevall and Ishizaki, imho, but that is also all. No real good strikers and defence looks shaky. The change of coach also have had no positive effect yet.
Yeah,I have always remembered them high in the table thats why I was surprised to see them at the bottom.Good to know that.Soon or later there could be positive impact because of the new coach.I included their away win in my combo with few euros The positive outcome with AIK could boost them a little who knows.
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Old 14-05-18, 15:53   #14
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Odds on Kalmar are rising...
I don't quite get it!? I'm on Kalmar - 1.5 @ 3.2 Unibet, Sirius with 9 players injured so some reserves and young players will feature. I go for the high odds on Kalmar handi. GL
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Old 16-05-18, 10:06   #15
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Today 16.05. Hammarby - Malmo.
Hammarby didn***8217;t won at home against Malmo since 17.05.2009.
Any useful info for today match, good odds both sides.
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Old 16-05-18, 10:24   #16
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Today 16.05. Hammarby - Malmo.
Hammarby didn***8217;t won at home against Malmo since 17.05.2009.
Any useful info for today match, good odds both sides.
Maybe Palini can share with us his useful previews...Hammarby is flying high actually and the team is full of confident, in contrast to Malmo, i don't know how will be the new trainer effect...i'm thinking about Hammarby -0.25.
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