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Old 10-05-18, 18:54   #61
WiserthantheCrowd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Albier View Post
I arrived a little late this year, I could not post anything in this great post before. In general, I agree with Wiser about what he has said about Israel. I see it very high in the tops on Saturday, but this song is having a little effect "Italy 2017" ..... The expectation in staging thought it would be different, but her voice is not so perfect and the show is enjoying for televote fans but the jury should not value it well. So we will see, because this year the level of the songs is very close, so it will be in the top 10, but I do not see it as a clear winner. I will try to comment more tomorrow about possible winners.

I do not have much time to analyze this second semifinal, but seen the surprises on Tuesday with Albania and Ireland (I took Albania boy QF at @ 6.00 two weeks ago in BF, amazing), I do not see why Slovenia or Georgia could give tonight surprise. This semifinal is supposed to be the weakest level, many more leveled and random songs, and seen the level so awful from Russia or Australia, I see here a wide range of possibilities for countries that are like dogs right now.

Slovenia to qualify @ 5.5 I find incredible odds again. Last year I bet for them, it was risky that time, but the semifinal level was higher. This year, this girl, Lea Sirk, I see her with a very good show, great choreography, great staging for televote and I am sure that she will be very close or within 10. Russia or Australia could be left. They are very high odds for something as unpredictable as for this semifinal. I'm going to bet some coins about them.

On the other hand Georgia to QF @ 4.33. Good ethnic song, this is a sure value year after year in every festival. Song is a bit strange, but I've seen some highlights of the rehearsals, and among all the mediocrity of the rest of the songs in the semifinal, they looks good. His voice is very good as a whole, and I swear I am sure he will have been highly valued for juries. So, let's try it too, these eastern countries could give a boost to Georgia in Televote. This difficult but very valuable too.

Russia not QF about @ 1.66 has fallen a bit, but still profitable for low stakes. Song is absolutely nothing, it only saves you the importance of the country, but we'll see. Same with Australia, good pace, but the voice of the girl is not spectacular either. Surely it will happen, but @ 3.75 odds for not QF are tempting to prove it, after the Azerbaijan thing on Tuesday, everything is possible this year.

GL!!
Good point. I think we may see 1 or 2 surprise qualifiers. I will take the Netherlands not to qualify at 3.25 with Bet365. I don't see much support for country rock at this competition and think that the breakdance-infused performance won't inspire televoters. There also are 2 other rock songs in the SF so the field is crowded even if they are a different sub-genre.
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Old 10-05-18, 19:14   #62
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Tonight I will oppose Norway to win the semi (@ 1.8) and will stake for Russia not to qualify. Odds got down to 1.50 but still I can't imagine it through, so 50% is not bad.
Also I suppose that either Denmark or the Netherlands fail to reach QF spot, but can't decide between them
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Old 10-05-18, 19:29   #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dex View Post
You seriously think that phone calls define how many points will some song got?
Look closely in the finals who get what from whom .......

.... and from southern Europe just Bulgaria and Albania goes thru (and Cyprus, but if Cyprus belong to southern Europe or the Middle East as Israel did?) but from north Finland, Estonia and Lithuania gone thru with Ireland .....
Today we may see Russia, Norway, Sweden, Latvia and Denmark gone thru with few others
and you say it isn't politics?
It's always so clear for you, right? Jon Ola Sand presses the right buttons depending on which rich northern country from western Europe puts most dollars in his pocket?

Can you then please tell me why the heck Portugal won it last year? From the south and one of the poorest countries. Must have been all those friendly neighbor voting from Spain, right?

Or why did Ukraine win the year before that? Only politics to stop Russia from succeed, right? But what happend to the powerful and rich western politics there?

I'm afraid your conspiracy theories doesn't quite add up...
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Old 10-05-18, 19:54   #64
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http://esctips.com/2018/05/10/eurovi...l-2-preview-2/
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Old 10-05-18, 22:13   #65
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Well well well we have qualified, nice to see!!
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Old 11-05-18, 08:34   #66
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One still has to be surprised how many metal heads watch & vote in this "political gay parade". There were more metal/rock songs going through yesterday than ballads/slow songs. That has to be a first... The Eurovision never seem to quit surprising.
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Old 11-05-18, 16:13   #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Palini View Post
It's always so clear for you, right? Jon Ola Sand presses the right buttons depending on which rich northern country from western Europe puts most dollars in his pocket?

Can you then please tell me why the heck Portugal won it last year? From the south and one of the poorest countries. Must have been all those friendly neighbor voting from Spain, right?

Or why did Ukraine win the year before that? Only politics to stop Russia from succeed, right? But what happend to the powerful and rich western politics there?

I'm afraid your conspiracy theories doesn't quite add up...
Again you talk about politics and conspiracy theories.
If UEFA muffle wit draws and balls why not ECU too? Tell me how many points Hungary receive in second semi and how many will got in final? Estonia? Clearly they need some songs who will collect small points. You know what was with Portugal and with illness and not coming to rehersals, talking against ECU and fellow musicians and contenders etc. etc. etc., Russia send girl in wheelchair but she never complained or talk about his condition and perform his part beautifully and not gone thru (maybe is politics inviolved but who knows). Are EU ppl not sensitive? Australia didn't deserve to go thru but guess what? If they are not in final then no money on broadcasting in Australia. ECU perform tests where is highest interests in broadcasting and guess what, Scandinavia and North Europe.
This weekend ESC will go again in some poor country or maybe Germany as they got nothing in past years (even decades) like Portugal never did or Ukraine in this matter
Just count north countries against south ....
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Old 12-05-18, 02:46   #68
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I've gotten round to Cyprus. I think they will definitely win the televote. And I've taken that bet at 2.2. Israel's staging just isn't that good... I also don't think the EBU would mind rewarding Cyprus for their longstanding winless participation...

I have already taken Germany to end as top big 5. I still see value in taking Germany at 2.3 in h2h with France. Juries may like France but I don't see the televote... I think Germany will make top 10 and could conceivably land in the top 4. This song will emotionally connect with viewers unlike France.

Finally, I have taken Ukraine in the top 10 at 3.25. With Russia and Belarus out, Ukraine should do well in Eastern Europe and even though they are the first act, I see top 10 clearly within reach...

Good luck!
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Old 12-05-18, 07:52   #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dex View Post
Again you talk about politics and conspiracy theories.
If UEFA muffle wit draws and balls why not ECU too? Tell me how many points Hungary receive in second semi and how many will got in final? Estonia? Clearly they need some songs who will collect small points. You know what was with Portugal and with illness and not coming to rehersals, talking against ECU and fellow musicians and contenders etc. etc. etc., Russia send girl in wheelchair but she never complained or talk about his condition and perform his part beautifully and not gone thru (maybe is politics inviolved but who knows). Are EU ppl not sensitive? Australia didn't deserve to go thru but guess what? If they are not in final then no money on broadcasting in Australia. ECU perform tests where is highest interests in broadcasting and guess what, Scandinavia and North Europe.
This weekend ESC will go again in some poor country or maybe Germany as they got nothing in past years (even decades) like Portugal never did or Ukraine in this matter
Just count north countries against south ....
You are rambling again. And the focus from you alsways seem to change, to fit your own agenda. First it is politics, then it is neighbor voting, then it's money, last year it was sympathy and bashing out on EBU (?) that made the winner.

Can you then please explain why in the heck Russia didn't play the sympathy card with poor girl in wheel chair this year? Don't they wanna be in the finals? Don't they wanna win? Why did they even participate then?

Who says Australia didn't deserve to go through? Australia usually put a lot of effort into this, and send good songs and good artists. Compaire with the UK that put no effort at all into this, pays their way into the final, and usually send rubbish songs that usually end up last in the final. Australia probably have realised being in the semi's is a good thing that usually helps your chances in the final, if you have confident enough in getting your song there. The big 5 still have trouble understanding this...

Germany won it in 2010. Is that decades ago? Ukraine won it 2004, before that 2016 win.

I'm sure there is "muffle" going on in this competition, but what ever is going on, no one is going to tell you about it, so why even speculate? You think you can break the code?
Just look at that Greece-Cyprus exchanging 12 points with each every possible year, no matter what songs they have. Or just look at the Bulgarian tactical "voting" last year...
These things happen, and I'm sure there's some bribing going on in the jury groups, but these are things that usually don't have an effect on the total outcome, since it gonna cost you more than you get to bribe'em all, and I also don't think it's possible to do. I also don't see some secret society like the EBU, free masons, aliens what ever deciding which song to win every year. Why would they? And why does the interest seem to change so much form year to year? Do they all of a sudden lose interest for the next year?

And why would a "poor" country even wanna host an event like this? It's not like it's free to host it. It costs big dollares. Once again your theories makes no sense at all.
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Old 12-05-18, 08:54   #70
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Romania blames for non-qualification telephone operators technical issues in Germany and Italy

it was really strange it dropped from 2.00 to 1.72 and then increased from 1.72 to 2.50

https://eurovoix.com/2018/05/11/roma...qualification/
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Old 12-05-18, 09:11   #71
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This is stupid post, but I need to share the info or rumors.

Friend of mine whos is working in Israel embassy in Belgrade, told me that everything is clear for tonight and Israel will win. After 20 years of last victory of Dana international.

I dont understand much, but he put a lot of money on it.

Sorry for this rumors
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Old 12-05-18, 19:18   #72
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Well, for the final tonight my selection accessing the odds are: Bulgaria NOT to finish in Top 10, Ireland and Germany, on the contrary, to make it to the Top 10. Denmark to finish above Finland, Norway above Czech.
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Old 12-05-18, 19:54   #73
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Lithuania win.V A L U E :-)
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Old 12-05-18, 23:47   #74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Balkano View Post
This is stupid post, but I need to share the info or rumors.

Friend of mine whos is working in Israel embassy in Belgrade, told me that everything is clear for tonight and Israel will win. After 20 years of last victory of Dana international.

I dont understand much, but he put a lot of money on it.

Sorry for this rumors

: Eek:: Eek:: o: o: fp: fp

a quanto stava ???
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Old 12-05-18, 23:51   #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Balkano View Post
This is stupid post, but I need to share the info or rumors.

Friend of mine whos is working in Israel embassy in Belgrade, told me that everything is clear for tonight and Israel will win. After 20 years of last victory of Dana international.

I dont understand much, but he put a lot of money on it.

Sorry for this rumors
WOW WOW WOW

What can I say
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Old 13-05-18, 00:19   #76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Balkano View Post
This is stupid post, but I need to share the info or rumors.

Friend of mine whos is working in Israel embassy in Belgrade, told me that everything is clear for tonight and Israel will win. After 20 years of last victory of Dana international.

I dont understand much, but he put a lot of money on it.

Sorry for this rumors
many Jewish people knew this song is so good
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Old 13-05-18, 05:52   #77
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Well, Israel which I got at 8/1 won and Germany which I took as best big 5 at 7.5/1 also came through so it was a phenomenal night...

See you next year in Tel Aviv!!!

Last edited by WiserthantheCrowd; 13-05-18 at 05:55.
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Old 13-05-18, 21:08   #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Balkano View Post
WOW WOW WOW

What can I say
Wow, one of the two biggest favorites won. Amazing...
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