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Old 01-04-18, 21:51   #1
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Default Snooker - China Open 2/4 - 8/4/2018

One of the most important tournaments of the season, all the big guns are in Beijing and I expect some great snooker. This is the last ranking event before World Championship, so players will be eager to do well.

I will post regular picks, for the first day I have prepared 3!
GL

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Old 01-04-18, 21:51   #2
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General picks: Anthony Hamilton vs. Jack Lisowski (-2,5) AH

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Posted by Macot (2018-04-01 22:51 CET)

I will follow China Open closely, one of the highest priced tournaments of the season and the last important one before World Championship, we need to prepare for The Crucible!

My first pick will be Lisowski, a whirlwind player who often plays too quickly, but is for sure a great potential, one of the most talented guys in tour. This season he managed several very good results and strong wins and he is visibly improving mentally too.

Hamilton after his best season of the decade when he won his first ranking tournament, is having health problems and is playing poorly the whole season long. I don`t think he can stop Jack.

These two played a couple of months ago, Lisowski won 4-0! This time they play to 6 wins, so 6-3 will be enough.

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Old 01-04-18, 21:51   #3
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General picks: Alister Carter vs. Gary Wilson

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Posted by Macot (2018-04-01 23:02 CET)

My third and final pick on China Open should give us great value for money. At the moment, Wilson is no worse than Carter and in my opinion he is slowly coming, he is a kind of player like Walden, Mark Davis, Hamilton, able to win against any other, slowly improving, will never be top of the tops but will win more than lose surely. And he should win his first ranking tournament soon.

This season he is 26/16, he managed one semifinals, one quarters and two top 16 finishes.

On the other side, Carter had some good results, too but he is always a bit too defensive in his play and also in his manner, he looks like missing confidence when it matters the most. He is 32/23 this season, two semins and one quarterfinal...

My call is Wilson, 6-4!

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Old 01-04-18, 21:52   #4
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General picks: Luca Brecel vs. Cao Yupeng

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Posted by Macot (2018-04-01 22:56 CET)

This in my opinion is the best snooker bet of the day and I have no doubts Yupeng will win this. Brecel, a great talent, was always too unprofessional to be able to keep constant form and this he is now in deep crisis, he lost first round matches in 4 out of last 5 tournaments and will now face one of the best Chinese players, on his turf

Cao Yupeng really managed to establish himself this season. He managed two final appearances and although he lost them both, he improved his standings and is able to go far in China Open, too.

I don`t think this will even be tight, my call is Cao Yupeng 6-2 or about!

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Old 02-04-18, 01:08   #5
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Hi Macot, hope you have been keeping well.

I am also on Cao Yupeng. He should be favored to win this and the odds seem wrong here. Since he's gotten a new cue and his shoulder injury late last year, Brecel has struggled with form big time. Cao Yupeng has been more consistent recently and will come prepared. I've got a big bet on Cao.

Carter versus Wilson seems like a 50/50 proposition so the value is with Wilson. I like that bet too.

I've also taken Haotian to beat Highfield at 2.2. In terms of form, those 2 are roughly even. Haotian beat Highfield in their only h2h last year. I don't see why Highfield should be favored against the local boy (Haotian is from Beijing).

Good luck!
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Old 02-04-18, 09:22   #6
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Nice to see you back, mate!
Good start as it seems, Lisowski won easily, and our three favourites are all in good positions, Wilson 3-2 up, Cao Yupeng was on his way to 3-1 but Brecel flooked the pink ball big time and instead 2-2 now, the same with Haotian.
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Old 02-04-18, 10:18   #7
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And typically things aare starting to turn against, Wilson was 5-2 up and he is now only 5-4.
Cao Yupeng is an idiot, was 3-2 in front, missed 10 oportunities for 4-2, gave Brecel, who was totally out, a chance and now he will probably go behind..
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Old 02-04-18, 10:32   #8
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Wilson won 6-4, Haotian 3-3 and 44-44 so everything open.
And Cao Yupeng 3-4 behind now. The tragedy is Brecel plays like he does not care, but Cao can not use that. Incredible...
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Old 02-04-18, 10:55   #9
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Brecel plays like he does not care, now Yupeng is 5-4 up. And HAotiam 5-3 so let us hope for perfect 4 winners!
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Old 02-04-18, 11:37   #10
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4 out of 4. Great start!
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Old 02-04-18, 12:22   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WiserthantheCrowd View Post
4 out of 4. Great start!
Yes fantastic. i am riddled with brecel. He was frustrated with something and only started to grind when he was 4:5 and 4 snookers behind. Yupeng on the other side still has mental problems... he can not finish the match off. Lost 4 snookers advantage but luckily brecel could not capitalise.
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Old 02-04-18, 20:26   #12
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OK, the tournament continues during the night (Europe) and here are my three picks. At the end I left Jimmy Robertson pick out.

General picks: Mark Joyce vs. Graeme Dott

0
Posted by Macot (2018-04-02 20:27 CET)

Well. I know it is risky to bet on Mark Joyce, so tough to predict, but he is a good player. Again, his oponent is of about the same material: still able to provide a great game, but not too often. Dottie had a good season so far, managed some nice, deep tournaments, on the other side he managed to lose against some really mediocre players, too.

Joyce is 27/17 for the season and he managed 3 quarterfinals, although they all came some time ago. Still as said, he is a capable player and should be a favourite here.

Dott on the other side is 34/20 for the season, so about the same score and he managed two consecutive finals, in German Masters and in Shoot Out (which can not be considered equal to other tournaments, though, a bit of a roulette).

This is going to be tight, my call is Joyce 6-5!

GL


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Old 02-04-18, 20:27   #13
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General picks: Neil Robertson vs. Robbie Williams (+2,5) AH

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Posted by Macot (2018-04-02 20:33 CET)

Well, i don`t know why bookies still rate Robertson so high. He has a terrible season, managed one fluke finals where he was dominated by Cao Yupeng who was 9-5 up, only too succumb and lose 10-9... otherwise two quarters, wery poor for Neil. After Scotland, he was his usual poor, no significant results since. He can still play well, but his confidence has gone and he does not seem to be focused.

On the other side, Robbie Williams is a good player, not a great player, but a kind of player that Robertson had problems against. In fact, these two played this season and Williams thrashed Neil 6-2! Otherwise he is 17/17 for the season, he managed one quarterfinals and will is surely able to make this match tight.

Odds are ridicoulous, OK Neil must be a favourite, he is a better player overall, but at the moment he is not in form and he already lost to today`s oponent. The least what I expect is Williams winning 4 frames. My call is 5-6!

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Old 02-04-18, 20:27   #14
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General picks: Tom Ford (-1,5) AH vs. Yuan Sijun

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Posted by Macot (2018-04-02 20:39 CET)

Well, Ford is an interesting player, he always wins big against average players, or loses big against top players. So, no in-betweens. And this should not be tight either.

I rate Ford as a solid player, he has a lot of expirience and is among those who are able to surprise, but are not good enough to play final sdtages of tournaments. This season his score is 31/26 and he never past the 1/8 finals (he managed that phase 4 times) but he also rarely exits in the first round.

His oponent is going to have crowd support, but he is really poor. Sijun`s score in 2017/18 is 7/15 for the season and he never went past 1/16 finals which he reached once.

There is a quality difference, I expect Ford to win 6-2 or about!

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Old 03-04-18, 07:53   #15
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I'm not sure I see a real value bet out there. I was thinking about Tom Ford but Yuan Sijun is no mug and Tom Ford recently had his appendix removed (March 25) - I'm not sure he's fully fit and he may struggle as the game continues. Given those circumstances, the value is with Yuan Sijun.

I've got a punt on Jimmy Robertson versus Xiao Guodong. Jimmy has a great h2h against Xiao who has had a great season. Nonetheless, I am not convinced that there is a favorite here - Robinson has played well at the Championship League recently and seems to be in the swing whereas Xiao hasn't had much practice lately. Although the odds favor Xiao, I am not convinced.

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Old 03-04-18, 09:17   #16
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I have missed a bet on Donaldson against Selby, so for those who are betting live, he is very takeable.
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Old 03-04-18, 09:18   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WiserthantheCrowd View Post
I'm not sure I see a real value bet out there. I was thinking about Tom Ford but Yuan Sijun is no mug and Tom Ford recently had his appendix removed (March 25) - I'm not sure he's fully fit and he may struggle as the game continues. Given those circumstances, the value is with Yuan Sijun.

I've got a punt on Jimmy Robertson versus Xiao Guodong. Jimmy has a great h2h against Xiao who has had a great season. Nonetheless, I am not convinced that there is a favorite here - Robinson has played well at the Championship League recently and seems to be in the swing whereas Xiao hasn't had much practice lately. Although the odds favor Xiao, I am not convinced.
Yes, as I wrote, Jimmy Robertson was my pick #4 but did not want to push too much so I left that one out.
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Old 03-04-18, 12:28   #18
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Another day and things are not going so well, Williams had 3-3 and only needed one more frame but did not get it and Jimmy Robertson was 5-4 up and also did not deliver.
But we are there... Ford can make things better for today.
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Old 03-04-18, 13:44   #19
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OMG what results: Steadman v Junhui 3-1, Slessor v OSullivan 4-0, Wakelin v Murphy 4-0

It looksl ike we will lose many favourites in early stages...
Tom Ford leads 2-1, a good start
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Old 03-04-18, 14:03   #20
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Loooooool Ronnie 0-4 down and makes express 147!
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Old 03-04-18, 14:05   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macot View Post
Loooooool Ronnie 0-4 down and makes express 147!
He is crazy enough to be the first person who makes two 147`s in one match!
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Old 03-04-18, 18:28   #22
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Xiao Guodong beat Jimmy Robertson in the decider.

Your bet on Tom Ford came through although that match looked tighter than the scoreline (6-2) suggested. I am thinking of taking Elliott Slessor at 2.4 in the next match. Slessor beat Ronny convincingly and I am not sure that Tom Ford is fully fit yet after he got his appendix removed.

I am also considering Ricky Walden at 2.6 versus Stuart Bingham. The h2h between those 2 is quite close and I am expecting another close match. In their 2 previous matches in China, Ricky Walden came out on top. Bingham struggled against Matthew Stevens whereas Ricky Walden comfortably whitewashed Hamza Akbar. I am not convinced that Stuart Bingham should be favored here.

Finally, I also think that it is possible that Lisowski may beat John Higgins. Prior to the Championship League, Higgins looked like he was floundering and I think the long season may have worn him out. On the other hand, he does have more tactical prowess than Lisowski.

What's your take?
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Old 03-04-18, 19:59   #23
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Moreover, there may also be value in taking Gary Wilson @ 2.6 versus Joe Perry. Chris Wakelin has also looked convincing in his victory against Shaun Murphy and may be undervalued @ 3 against Graham Dott.

The value bet for tomorrow (for me) is Elliott Slessor to beat Tom Ford @ 2.4. I can't fathom why Tom Ford would go into that match as favorite given his recent operation and lack of match practice. Unless Elliott Slessor gets drunk (after his 2nd victory this season over Ronnie) and suffers from a hangover, he's the clear favorite for me in their first match ever.
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Old 03-04-18, 20:24   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WiserthantheCrowd View Post
Xiao Guodong beat Jimmy Robertson in the decider.

Your bet on Tom Ford came through although that match looked tighter than the scoreline (6-2) suggested. I am thinking of taking Elliott Slessor at 2.4 in the next match. Slessor beat Ronny convincingly and I am not sure that Tom Ford is fully fit yet after he got his appendix removed.

I am also considering Ricky Walden at 2.6 versus Stuart Bingham. The h2h between those 2 is quite close and I am expecting another close match. In their 2 previous matches in China, Ricky Walden came out on top. Bingham struggled against Matthew Stevens whereas Ricky Walden comfortably whitewashed Hamza Akbar. I am not convinced that Stuart Bingham should be favored here.

Finally, I also think that it is possible that Lisowski may beat John Higgins. Prior to the Championship League, Higgins looked like he was floundering and I think the long season may have worn him out. On the other hand, he does have more tactical prowess than Lisowski.

What's your take?
We are more or less on the same line.
I agree perfectly about Slessor and he will be one of my picks on the main site. Odds are 2,26 at Pinny now, still very backable.
Also, I fully agree about Wilson, I rate him a lot, he is one of the players that looks to be serious, composed, he is in form, best season of his career and he should be able to make life hard for Perry.
I am not eager to back Lisowski though, tough to go against Higgins on a player that has such a poor safety game like Jack...
I also have a lean on Walden +1,5, but he too has many problems with his back so that is always a factor.
My other leans are Cao Yupeng -1,5 against Gilbert, who is not in good form. Wakelin as you, +1,5 against Dott, although Dottie is really in good form, I lost first round bet against him.
I lika Guodong against Junhui, Chinese derby, will be interesting.
And of course a must take Woolaston +2,5 against struggling Mark Selby.
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Old 03-04-18, 20:50   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macot View Post
We are more or less on the same line.
I agree perfectly about Slessor and he will be one of my picks on the main site. Odds are 2,26 at Pinny now, still very backable.
Also, I fully agree about Wilson, I rate him a lot, he is one of the players that looks to be serious, composed, he is in form, best season of his career and he should be able to make life hard for Perry.
I am not eager to back Lisowski though, tough to go against Higgins on a player that has such a poor safety game like Jack...
I also have a lean on Walden +1,5, but he too has many problems with his back so that is always a factor.
My other leans are Cao Yupeng -1,5 against Gilbert, who is not in good form. Wakelin as you, +1,5 against Dott, although Dottie is really in good form, I lost first round bet against him.
I lika Guodong against Junhui, Chinese derby, will be interesting.
And of course a must take Woolaston +2,5 against struggling Mark Selby.
Yes, I agree. Selby is still struggling and +2.5 on Woolaston looks good.

I take your point about Lisowski. That's definitely speculative.

The back troubles of Walden may throw a spanner in the works.

Perry does seem underrated at current odds.

Guodong against Jinhui should be interesting. I'm still not sure that he's totally past his eye problems but he did look good against Georgiou.

I agree that Cao Yupeng will beat Gilbert but I'm not sure about the HC. Gilbert could keep things tight.

Slessor at these odds is great value.
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Old 03-04-18, 22:21   #26
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At the end I have skipped Woollaston, he is having a poor season and can be a victim of Selby rage...

But I did take four picks:

http://www.bettingadvice.com/league/general-picks/120

General picks: Cao Yupeng (-1,5) AH vs. David Gilbert

0
Posted by Macot (2018-04-03 23:06 CET)

Well, there is only one factor that could spoil this pick: if Cao will choke once again. But normally in early stages of tournaments, he is very strong and reliable. He had problems in the first round against Luca Bercel, won 6-4 but should have won more easily as Belgian players did not appear at all...

On the other side, Gilbert has a poor season. He is 31/23 for the season and managed 2 quarterfinals, but both were in the beginning of the season. Since then, Gilbert did not do anything worth mentioning and his form is rather poor. To reach this round, he eliminated poor players. Castle (back in England in qualifiers) and Dunn.

Cao Yupeng is a better player and I expect him to win this, my call is 6-3!

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General picks: Gary Wilson vs. Joe Perry

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Posted by Macot (2018-04-03 23:20 CET)

Two very good players will meet in this interesting match. Both are in good form and although they are of two different generations, they can be compared as serious tournament players that will fight until the last ball is potted.

Wilson of course is the younger of the two and he has the best season of his professional career to date. One semifinals, one quarterfinals and two best of 16 finishes show that he is constantly good. His score is 27/16...

On the other side, Perry is a veteran player, who actually played his best snooker in the last 5-6 seasons. He managed 4 quarterfinals and is good throughout the season.

Now, this I rate is a 50/50 contest, but odds are ridicoulously high on Wilson so I need to take him. He looked strong against Ali Carter, while Perry destroyed Totten (6-0). My call is 6-4 Wilson!

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General picks: Tom Ford vs. Elliot Slessor

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Posted by Macot (2018-04-03 23:11 CET)

We have won nicely on Ford, his 6-2 against Sijun was expected: Chinese player is rather average and he is going to drop off the tour at the end of the season. But now he will meet a totally different player, a young gun from Gateshead, who already got our attention earlier this season when he reached semifinals of Northern Ireland Open. He added quarterfinals in India and after a bit of a poorer run, he managed to surprise Ronnie here, 6-2 was the end result and what I am sure is that he won`t underestimate Ford now. He is too good for that.

So, what I expect here is another good performance by Slessor, this is the first time they meet and it will be a good match which Elliot should win. My call is 4-6!

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General picks: Xiao Guodong (+1,5) AH vs. Ding Junhui


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Posted by Macot (2018-04-03 23:27 CET)

This is going to be highly interesting match, two of the best Chinese players will meet in 3rd round match that could be a real treat for us.

Junhui of course is a legend in China, highly popular, the first Chinese player that won the ranking title, a player that is responsible for huge interest for snooker in Chine, who sparked all those young generations to start playing and are now entering the big stage. This season has been rather odd for him though... from great to terrible, he was rather unreliable. His problems with eyes seem to be over, he is playing better now, but still not at his best.

Guodong on the other side is able to capitalize from his flaws. He already played two ranking tournament finals and this season his form is going up - he started poorly, but managed 4 quarterfinals since and is now in really good form.

I expect a tight match here, it could go all the way to deciding frame: 6-5!

GL


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2.26 10 / 10 H Asian Handicap General picks 1xbet
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Old 04-04-18, 08:25   #27
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So far the first matches (where I dont have any picks) are going upon expectations, the only remorse I have is that I dod not go against Neil Robertson again...
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Old 04-04-18, 10:35   #28
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Goddamn, you were so right about Lisowski, he trashed Higgins, congrats!
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Old 04-04-18, 11:38   #29
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Selby won 6-3 so that was a good escape, did not like to go against him.
But a handicap on Craigie would be profitable, but Ok.
My picks start at 13:30!
GL all!
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Old 04-04-18, 14:06   #30
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All four pciks 2-2 at the break.. which is rather dissapointing as three were leading 2-0...
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