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Old 05-02-18, 15:29   #1
Daemon Caledor
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Default Denmark Superligaen 9 - 12 February

Lyngby - Brøndby

There's a big risk this match won't be played at all since Lyngby is on the brink of bankruptcy, but in case it is I see great value in Brøndby -1,5 @ 2.15.

The Lyngby players have not even been training for the last couple of days due to not being paid and they will all worry about injuries since they are likely to go club hunting within a few days. Very poor preparation for their first match of the Spring season.

Brøndby, on the other hand, had a perfect start after the Winter break with a 1-0 win away in the cup tournament against their arch rivals. They have kept the team intact and are clear favourites to win the championship. Great motivation, better form, higher quality, better preparation.
I could see this go to 0-3 or even 0-4.

Nice odds or your money back. Good luck.
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Old 05-02-18, 22:20   #2
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Happy that Danish football is finally beginning again.

I like the odds on FCK to beat Randers, I've taken them -1,5 @ 2.44 (Pinnacle). They lost to Brøndby in the cup and didn't set the world alight exactly but Brøndby is perhaps the strongest team in Denmark at the moment so it doesn't mean alot in my evaluation.

Key striker Federico Santander will still be out with injury and they sold key winger Benjamin Verbic to Dynamo Kiev. Then they've brought in quality in Robert Skov and Viktor Fisher adding to their offense. FCK have had a dissapointing season so far but I'm quite positive they will come out stronger after the winter break and they will look forward to meeting Atletico on thursday in the EL.

Randers have been in some turmoil, they fired their coach and Theres been lots of players leaving while some interesting players are brought in instead. Good players Mikkel Kallesøe and Nicolai Poulsen have joined Randers again after having been away on loandeals.

Overall though Randers have a mediocre squad and I don't think they will pose much of a threat to FCK away from home. GL
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Old 05-02-18, 22:25   #3
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Link to Danish tranfers: https://www.bold.dk/transfers/superligaen/
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Old 06-02-18, 07:33   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RafaRoger View Post
I like the odds on FCK to beat Randers, I've taken them -1,5 @ 2.44 (Pinnacle).
Yeah, I'm considering this as well and I agree with what you said about both Copenhagen and Randers.

However, I don't trust manager Ståle Solbakken who bears much of the responsibility of the downfall of the Danish champions. I will wait to see the line-ups and if he continues to employ the likes of William Kvist, Pierre Bengtsson and and Andrija Pavlovic I will skip the match altogether since anything could happen then.

Hopefully, he will come to his senses and use Fischer from the get-go and place the three mentioned players on the bench - even though their replacements aren't that much better it should make a huge difference overall.
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Old 07-02-18, 19:34   #5
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Your bet on Brøndby, Daemon Caledor, looks great now IF the game is played, as couple key players have now left Lyngby, because they've not been paid their monthly salary and things at the club are looking really quite bad. I couldn't imagine Brøndby not winning this comfortably as things stand right now..
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Old 07-02-18, 19:51   #6
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I struggle to find much else to bet on this round, maybe not so surprising as it's the 1st round after a long break and hard to figure out where each team stand. Slight lean towards Hobro but it's not till monday so plenty time to think it over..
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Old 08-02-18, 17:42   #7
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Just to inform, the game Lyngby - Brøndby is gonna be played, it should be pretty sure now..
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Old 09-02-18, 13:39   #8
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Curious whether anyone knows the quality of the many transfers in and out of FCM. This is exactly the sort of match that typically sees a favored side drop points in the first match back. FCM appear to have lost at least two regular defenders, an attacker and one or two midfielders, and I just don't know whether they'll match their first-half form. Horsens sent a couple midfielders back to FCM in the break...anyway, any info will be appreciated.
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Old 09-02-18, 14:03   #9
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Yeah, tough match to call. Horsens undefeated at home and they are rarely outplayed. Their destructive style can cause problems for even the strongest teams.

FCM are probably a bit weaker overall after the break. Sørloth really did well for them and without him they are more dependent on Onuachu who is great but also has a tendency to "disappear" out of matches. It remains to be seen what shape Sviatchenko is in and how quickly he and Sanneh will mesh in the new look defense.

If I should guess, I would say FCM to win 1-0, but at these odds I won't risk it. It should be 1.80 before I'd touch it.
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Old 09-02-18, 14:31   #10
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I'm not as sure in goals in tonight game as the bookies seem to be. Under 3 or 3.5 could be a decent call. There were many goals in the reverse fixture, 4-2 for FCM, but the pitch in Horsens probably still isn't in great condition and a first game after after a long break doesn't speak for alot of goals. FCM should still snatch it with their superior quality but they (and Horsens too as Sanneh also were a great threat in offense on deadballs) are weakened especially offensively. All in all probably will be a tight game and no value on awaywin, I agree on that.
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Old 09-02-18, 14:51   #11
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Thank you both for the responses. Daemon, your remark about what it would take to wager on FCM is the opposite question I ask myself, which is what it would take to back Horsens. In my database of six seasons when FCM drop points as a favorite away it tends to be a straight loss rather than a draw (9-3-5 when the home dog odds are up to 4.99), contrast that with Kobenhavn who are 10-18-10 against home dogs of up to 4.99 and 18-25-10 against home dogs of up to 5.99.

In the first four matches after the break, home dogs in the league are 0-3-3 in the 3.99 range, 3-2-2 in the 4.0 to 4.99 range. (Horsens are 4.96 at the moment but I expect that number to drop.) It's sort of a guess between win and draw when you decide to back the home dog, but it can be profitable at the kinds of odds you get.
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Last edited by allthethings; 09-02-18 at 15:11. Reason: updated stats
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Old 09-02-18, 14:54   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by allthethings View Post
Curious whether anyone knows the quality of the many transfers in and out of FCM. This is exactly the sort of match that typically sees a favored side drop points in the first match back. FCM appear to have lost at least two regular defenders, an attacker and one or two midfielders, and I just don't know whether they'll match their first-half form. Horsens sent a couple midfielders back to FCM in the break...anyway, any info will be appreciated.
As Daemon said it's a difficult match to predict but will say that Sanneh is a big miss for Horsens and replacement Delphin Tshiembe is suspended so new young guy Juel Andersen will play in defense with Ludvig. Besides that a plus though for Horsens is that they''ve not made as many changes to their squad as FCM f.e. and continuity is a good thing when things work.
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Old 09-02-18, 17:53   #13
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I've taken Horsens at 5.05...value and/or stupidity.
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Old 09-02-18, 22:32   #14
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Exiting and interesting game tonight..FCM were somewhat lucky on occasions in especially the 1st half where Horsens really dominated quite heavily. FCM came out much better in the 2nd half and were able to hold on to the ball coupled with some good breakaways where as the pressure from Horsens subsided and in the end FCM were able to quite easily drive the victory home..

Horsens coach Bo Henriksen were proud of his team's performance and he has also earlier stated that this is the strongest Horsens side he has coached. This was the 1st home defeat for Horsens since April last year and I really believe they will continue to be a force to be reckoned with at home for the remaining part of the season.
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Old 09-02-18, 22:43   #15
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Btw, the pitch in Horsens is terrible but actually not a big disadvantage for the gameplay which they employ, probably more annoying for visiting teams which is more ball possession oriented and maybe don't have the big physique that is needed to defend Horsens long balls and dangerous setpieces. Horsens also have some good ballplayers make no mistake about it, they can actually "play football" too they just emphasize more on the before mentioned things..
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Old 09-02-18, 23:38   #16
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SønderjyskE are without key players for the meeting with FCN as captain and defender Marc Pedersen and vice captain leftback Simon Poulsen are both ruled out with injuries. Furtermore defenders Anders Egholm and Stefan Gartenmann are considered doubtful. They have lost a very good player midfielder Troels Kløve to OB, but have been reinforced offensively with the loan deal of Simon Kroon from FCM. Kroon is an excellent player and came to FCM from exactly SønderjyskE so he should slide right in well.

FCN have lost their offensive talisman, topscorer of the league, Emiliano Marcondes which is without a doubt a big loss. However at FCN there's always some new talents popping up when they sell a player, so I have little doubt that they can manage to play well also without Marcondes as they've still many very talented players. They've reinforced the defense with a norwegian, Ruben Yttergård Jenssen, I don't know him but from what I've heard it's a good player. It should however be mentioned that then key defender Patrick Mtiliga has retired which is a loss with his generel quality and experience.

This is a game I can't wait to watch as it's 2 teams that can play good football, with many talented players on both teams. FCN have a bit more quality and are rightly favorites but my bet is on goals. I find over 3 @ 1.92 (Bet365) as a tasty proposition.
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Old 09-02-18, 23:48   #17
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Sorry Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen not Ruben..
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Old 11-02-18, 09:53   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daemon Caledor View Post
Lyngby - Brøndby

There's a big risk this match won't be played at all since Lyngby is on the brink of bankruptcy, but in case it is I see great value in Brøndby -1,5 @ 2.15.

The Lyngby players have not even been training for the last couple of days due to not being paid and they will all worry about injuries since they are likely to go club hunting within a few days. Very poor preparation for their first match of the Spring season.

Brøndby, on the other hand, had a perfect start after the Winter break with a 1-0 win away in the cup tournament against their arch rivals. They have kept the team intact and are clear favourites to win the championship. Great motivation, better form, higher quality, better preparation.
I could see this go to 0-3 or even 0-4.

Nice odds or your money back. Good luck.
Now that Lyngby is taken over by a local investment group:
http://www.lyngby-boldklub.dk/2018/0...nvestorgruppe/

I guess the atmosphere at the club is better. But I struggle to find information about which players have left and so on. Who will likely to start compared to the last match?
Do you guys have some info?


Brøndby -1,5 still a good bet? I think the odds have dropped so no longer value. I am thinking of Brondby win both halves with small stakes.
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Old 11-02-18, 22:21   #19
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Sorry, didn't see your post before now.

Great first weekend of Danish football! My main bet of Brøndby -1.5 cashed in as well as all of my smaller stakes bets.
Horsens - FCM: FCM (0-2)
Silkeborg - AaB: 2.5+ (3-2)
FCK - Randers: FCK-1.5 (5-1)
OB - Helsingør: OB & 2.5+ (6-1)
Sønderjyske - FCN: 2.5+ (2-1)

Let's see if we can keep it going tomorrow with Hobro - AGF.
Hobro have scored in all but one of their home matches and have kept their squad intact, while AGF have been doing quite well in the preseason.
My bet will be BTS @ 1.80.
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Old 11-02-18, 22:56   #20
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Finally I follow your main bet. Excellent tips. Thank you.
And thanks RafaRoger too, I took BTTS & O2.5 for your match. I start following Danish league this season, amazing!

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Old 12-02-18, 19:55   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daemon Caledor View Post
Let's see if we can keep it going tomorrow with Hobro - AGF.
Hobro have scored in all but one of their home matches and have kept their squad intact, while AGF have been doing quite well in the preseason.
My bet will be BTS @ 1.80.
0-1. Incredibly, AGF managed to keep a clean sheet in an away match for only the second time this season :-(
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