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Spanish and Portuguese league picks and analysis discussed here. Premier and 1.div.

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Old 15-06-17, 19:38   #1
Albier
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Default Spain Liga 1/2/3 Playoffs

Cadiz-Tenerife 2.4 2.81 3.14

Any thougths about today game?

I have to say first of all, that in these Playoffs there is no penalty shootout yet if the playoffs end in a draw in the regular time, you play a normal OT, and if at the end of the 120 minutes playoff tie ends in a draw, the team that has the best position in the regular season table advances to the next round, a style similar to Italy serie B.

About tonight's game, I mean that although Cadiz odds are slightly favorites, I really do not like to back them. Tenerife is finishing the season in an impressive form, they are in an incredible state of grace, they can throw 80 m and score a goal, they can score goals easily, and especially their attackers, too dangerous when they come together and combine between them. They really have enough offensive power to score tonight.

Cadiz comes to these PO I think a fair bit of energy and form. Since April, they have only won two of their last 12 games, many of them finishing in a 1-1 draw and one of the victories against a poor Elche without much brilliance. Yes, they have been lucky that they have drawn too many matches and the rival teams from behind have been even poorer, but you are seeing that the tiredness of the season has made them activate the red light too soon. For quality, I think a team to be in the middle of the standings. They have very fast wingers, Salvi, Alvaro and Aketxe, but little else. They are not defensive-minded team at home, they are a good counterattack team, they generally play by the wings for cross balls to area and also to take advantage of the speed of Salvi and Alvaro, its main dangers.

But his striker Ortuņo is poor for a team that wants to promote, good positional striker, but no speed, little goal. Cadiz costs a world to score a goal in positional game, can only do it from set-pieces or counterattack. Also their CBs, are also very slow for Tenerife speed. Aridane and Sankare are physically powerful in air and height, but they are not great passing players, and they make a lot of mistakes trying to play the ball from defense. I see it difficult that the Cadiz managed a clean sheet tonight, only their GK can avoid it, but between fatigue and the slow speed of their defense, I see them suffering again. Match played between both teams in April in Cadiz, Tenerife win 0-1, but if you see the stats and highlights was a monologue from Tenerife, could finish 0-3 or 0-4, Cadiz was outplayed.


Tenerife on the contrary, as I mentioned above, they arrive at a good moment, they are very motivated, and they are going to come out to sentence this tie, and for me, with Getafe, they have the best attack players in the category. His striker, Amath Ndiaye, youngster on loan from At.Madrid, is incredibly fast, moves around the area as demon, and very annoying for the rival defenses. But the players in the midfield line are also small and fast, Suso Santana, Omar, Aaron Ņiguez, Japanese player Shibashaki, all with good passing skills, and when they combine between them, they can break a defense in seconds, they are very vertical, and as minutes go pass, they take possession and are very dangerous with spaces. But is that on the bench, have Choco Lozano, Tyronne, still more dynamite in attack to revolutionize a match. Their defense is not that it is too secure, but they are well organized and do not break too much, play with two very positional midfields that give balance, Vitolo and Aitor Sanz. His GK Dani Hernandez, international for Venezuela, has experience and is a safe value in these qualifiers.

At the end in these qualifiers can happen anything, but I can not see the Cadiz here favorite with these odds and bad shape. Odds in Tenerife have dropped too much in the last few hours, they are still around @ 3.20, but have little value to enter. I like the option of goals more. I'm going to try Tenerife over 0.5 in second half, around @ 2.25 right now, I think maybe in the first half Cadiz get more involved in the match and more organized, for the stadium's hot atmosphere, Carranza, but in the second half, sure to accuse fatigue of the season, and Tenerife will be controlling the possession more and more, and with the spaces and players so fast that has, even from the bench, I see that they will try to score goal up until the end.

Last edited by Albier; 19-06-17 at 12:21.
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Old 15-06-17, 22:47   #2
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Really very disappointing Tenerife tonight, one of the worst matches of its season has had to arrive today. Tactically awful, locked in defense, did not combine short passes, there was no connection between midfield and attackers, they could only reach box with long balls from defense, a disaster for the quality that their players have. His coach was wrong and has been overcome.

Cadiz very intense and pressing very well, very high, I was surprised after the last month of competition they did, I thought they would accuse fatigue in second half, but even so they controlled match without problems. They have had many chances to score more goals, but they are so poor too, only a howler from Tenerife GK has been able to give them the win. 1-0 fair and short result, but Tenerife is still very much alive to come back in front of his fans. I see goals on Sunday.
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Old 18-06-17, 19:46   #3
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Return match in Tenerife, after 1-0 in Cadiz on Thursday. As I pointed out in my post above, Tenerife was horrible and out of the match the whole match. Cadiz caught up with the great hot-atmosphere from his fans and surprised with a high-strong pressing looking constantly to attack and prevented the small and technical players of Tenerife midfield could combine and reach the area. They could score more goals and sentence the tie if it were not because it costs them lot to score a goal.

Sold out in the Heliodoro Rodriguez Lopez. Tenerife continues with Rachid and Iņaki saenz missings, and Cadiz will travel with all his players, those available and those not going to play by technical decision.

I expect a different gameplan today. Cadiz away from home has been a defensive-minded team this year and Cervera's main plan is to keep the 0-0 as long as possible to take advantage of the speed of his wingers Salvi / Alvaro to counterattack and sentenced with a single goal. He has experience in PO matches, last year promote to Cadiz to Liga 2 via PO and his plan away from home was the same. He told the press he knows they are going to suffer because Tenerife fans are going to push a lot to come back and they have to be prepared. They are going to go out with thurday's same lineup, but maybe today especially more defensive. The rest of the team is the same, wingers fast Salvi and Alvaro, and Aketxe advanced midfielder to try shots on goal. Their defense I still think, although they maintained a clean sheet on Thursday, they did not show much security, Tenerife came in a few occasions and had problems with the speed of their strikers. Sankare his African CB, had problems at the end of the game in a leg, I suppose today will play, but his physical condition continues not being good for 90 min and a possible OT.

Tenerife today if they should play as they are accustomed, and not like they did on Thursday. Their fans will tighten, and they at home this year have been solid, although they have suffered against defensive-minded teams to score goals. In theory, his coach has announced some change in lineup to look for players more fresh legs than Thursday. Tenerife today starting with a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1, with Choco Lozano upfront and wingers / strikers Amath Ndiaye and Suso Santana. Midfield will be for Shibashaki, Aitor Sanz, Vitolo, and his defense will be the same again. Strong lineup again, but this time with a real striker pure reference, Lozano. It looks like they are going to dominate the game and to will try score goal from the beginning, it seems like the gameplans are going to exchange with respect to Thursday's game. I did not see a physical problem on Thursday, rather it was a mental and tactical problem, so today they should be able to attack 90 min and a possible OT.

Keep in mind that 1-0 is good for Tenerife at FT, but would have to play OT anyway and keep the result 30 more minutes. In any case, with the physical effort of the whole season for both teams, the heat that is going to do today in Tenerife (There is one hour less than the rest of Spain, so it will still be sunny) and the tension and pressure of Tenerife fans and defenses that are also not safe, we'll probably see some goals. Cadiz will have his chances to counters it and they will be dangerous there whole match, a goal to dynamite the tie and could become a goal-party due to the characteristics of the Tenerife team. Again I say the same as in the first leg, I hope the Cadiz more intense in the first half and sure will hold better attacks from Tenerife, but Tenerife will have to risk at any time, and the match can break with spaces in favor of the Cadiz as well. I hope in the second half a crazy match.

I'll try over 2 with odds around @1.95-2.00 with medium stakes, It's a good and safe line, I really hope that a goal, both locals and visitors, can break the game at any time and come more goals. Corners could also be considered, they are two teams that use wings to attack with their fast, but my local bookies do not offer today.

GL !!

Last edited by Albier; 18-06-17 at 19:48.
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Old 18-06-17, 21:54   #4
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Damn, finally match to OT. Too many chances missed in this second half by the two teams, there should have been a goal or two more in the 90 minutes.

This is already broken, Cadiz will seek the goal now with everything and Tenerife will not risk much after 90 minutes, 1-0 is worth to them. I can only see one more goal, but I will not be involved anymore in this match.
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Old 19-06-17, 00:38   #5
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Why did Tenerife qualify without penalties after 1-1 over 2 legs? I don't understand this system, someone please explain
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Old 19-06-17, 08:28   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MZKS View Post
Why did Tenerife qualify without penalties after 1-1 over 2 legs? I don't understand this system, someone please explain
Decided higher place in league at the end of the season.
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Old 19-06-17, 12:17   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kkkaban View Post
Decided higher place in league at the end of the season.
MZKS, I explained something about it in my first post. Sorry, I was wrong about one thing. I meant "playoff tie ends draw goes to 120 min OT" not "match ends in a draw". I just wanted to point it out to avoid confusion.

PD: Edit my post to say something I have not commented either. Away goals will continue to be counted and is the first rule to determine the winner. By way of an example, if an tie ends 0-0 and 2-2, in this case it applies away goals rule. If it will end both legs 0-0 or as yesterday in Tenerife both 1-0, the best team ranked in RS rule is applied after OT if tie still continues as it was.

Quote:
I have to say first of all, that in these Playoffs there is no penalty shootout yet, if the playoffs end in a draw in the regular time, you play a normal OT, and if at the end of the 120 minutes match ends in a draw, the team that has the best position in the regular season table advances to the next round, a style similar to Italy serie B..

Last edited by Albier; 19-06-17 at 14:50.
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Old 21-06-17, 19:11   #8
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Tenerife-Getafe, 1st leg

On the draw @ 3.0. Draw is often a good play in this league when the sides are closely matched, and it's hard to argue with it here. They drew h2h in both matches this season. More than that, against the other top five sides, Tenerife was 1-5-0 at home, Getafe was 0-4-2 away. Against those same sides away, Tenerife was 1-3-2, Getafe at home was 3-2-1. Add that up, the two sides against the others in the playoff/promotion spots this year went 5-14-5.
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Last edited by allthethings; 21-06-17 at 19:15.
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Old 21-06-17, 20:00   #9
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My personal feeling is that Tenerife will probably have more possesion today, but with their current form in attack so poor, so little time for recovery, only two days, heat will make around Canary Islands today, fatigue will arrive soon or later they will crash again and again on Getafe wall, and Getafe with his dangerous set-pieces or any counters, they can score goal anytime. I will not go with any pick, I will see the approach of the teams in the first 20 min, and if Getafe is well positioned, I will try Getafe over 0.5 goals or Back Getafe 2nd half.
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Old 22-06-17, 17:22   #10
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Any comments for the second game? Some important players of Getafe are injured. It seem difficult for Getafe to win.
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