Vuelta a España 2011 (20.08 - 11.09)

[gambler87]

Stage 8 – Joaquim Rodriguez (ESP – Katusha) vs The Field

This stage is similar to the stage 6, which ended in Valdepeñas de Jaén and where Joaquim Rodriguez absolutely destroyed the whole field by flying in that final km with ramps of 24%. Now in San Lorenzo de El Escorial, with a final km with ramps even tougher (29%!!!), the same thing should happen. Katusha knows they have the best rider in the race for this kind of stage and so, they will pull the peloton and control the stage, in order to allow Rodriguez to attack in the ramps and win one more stage and gain more time over his rivals (bonification seconds are needed, considering his poor time trial skills). I don’t see anybody getting close to Rodriguez in the ramps of San Lorenzo de El Escorial and so, I’ll take him to beat the whole field in this stage and win it at this juicy odds.

Pick: 1 unit on Joaquim Rodriguez to beat the field (win the stage) @2,77 on Pinnacle

[sucotash]

If Purito Rodriguez is healthy it is a great bet, absolutly perfect stage for him. But yesterday he was involved in the crash close to the finish line, and his fitness is in some question. Also Scarponi and Nibali felt. Especially Scarponi is hurt. No bet today for now I willl wait to see how it goes, and if Puriti looks good I will take him live if there is no break with chances to succed.

[gambler87]

If Purito Rodriguez is healthy it is a great bet, absolutly perfect stage for him. But yesterday he was involved in the crash close to the finish line, and his fitness is in some question. Also Scarponi and Nibali felt. Especially Scarponi is hurt. No bet today for now I willl wait to see how it goes, and if Puriti looks good I will take him live if there is no break with chances to succed.

Rodriguez fell yesterday, but he immediately looked okay after the crash. Scarponi was the one who seemed really injured, but I'm glad he was okay today. Also Anton has looked good today, a very good sign. But this kind of stages are perfectly suited for Purito and once he ignited the turbo, nobody got even close.

[gambler87]

Stage 9 – Jurgen Van Den Broeck (BEL – Omega Pharma) vs Bauke Mollema (NED – Rabobank)

This stage is the first one which ends in a real tough mountain (as Sierra Nevada is long, but quite soft) and so, I expect the best climbers of the Vuelta to clearly outclimb the decent climbers for the first time in this race. In this case, I expect Van Den Broeck to outclimb Mollema, as the Belgian is clearly one of the best climbers in the world and he has been always in the front in every tough finish. He is a very good climber, with experience on Grand Tours and I expect him to be in the front with Rodriguez, Scarponi and perhaps Nibali or even Anton, who is recovering well. On the other side, Mollema is a good climber for small mountains and steep hills, but he is yet to show that he can handle the pace of the best climbers in the world on long and tough mountains like this one. Therefore, looking at the stage profile, I have to take Van Den Broeck to outride Mollema.

Pick: 1 unit on Jurgen Van Den Broeck to beat Bauke Mollema @1,806 on Pinnacle

[sucotash]

Totally agree with you with this pick.

Another bet

Roche to beat LuLu Sanchez @ 1.44 Sportingbet 8 units LuLu Sanchez is a shadow of the rider he used to be in the past. In the TDF he had chances to get a good place, but when mountains started, he completly blown. Roche is a good climber, he looked very good yesterday, a good top ten GT contender, as Lulu is (or mabe was) a good rider for one week races.

[Badeend]

TT time!! The most interesting stages in small or big Tours.

Phinney over Klöden (1.481 @Pina - 9/10): Phinney is 200% focussed on this TT, this 21 year old is already World en Olympic champion on the track. He saved as much energy as possible the last days. As you can read here in his blog. Klöden crashed out of the TdF and is here mainly to help Brajkovic and Zubeldia

Machado over Barredo (1.671 @Pina - 7/10): Machado is the better TT man, and he is also performing a lot better in this Vuelta then Barredo. Can be expected that Barredo doesnt go full gas since he is already 50 minutes behind in GC.

[gambler87]

Stage 10 – Stage Winner

This stage is a 47km flat time trial in Salamanca and so, I expect the reigning world champion in this discipline to dominate this stage. With less than one month to go to the world championships, this is the ultimate test for Fabian Cancellara, in order to prove that he is in form to revalidate his world championship once again. Main rivals are Bradley Wiggins and Tony Martin, however while Bradley Wiggins lacks a bit of time trial skills to hang with Cancellara (as does everybody really) and he has been “wasting” a lot of energy in the mountains, Cancellara has been saving himself for this stage. In the case of Tony Martin, it is really a case of struggling form, as he has been very poor in almost every stage. Sure he will ride a good time trial, but to beat Cancellara, he needs to pull out a performance of a lifetime and he doesn’t seem to be in the necessary form to do that. Therefore, I expect the best time trialist in the world to win this one to prove that he is once again the main contender for the world championships time trial, which starts two weeks after the end of the Vuelta.

Pick: 1 unit on Fabian Cancellara to win @2,00 on Bet365

[sucotash]

Fabian this season is not so dominating as he used to be, so I will go for value. Yas Spartacus is the favorite, but I like Wiggins chances. He is a great TTtralist, motivated, becouse he has a big chance of winning this Vuelta. His form after withdrawing from TDf looks good so I go for him to win. Evans riding for the TDF win rode the TT of his life, Wiggo is also able to repeat this kind of performance @ 6.00 Sportingbet 2/10

Abother bet on Wiggins. Wiggins to beat Martin @ 2.85 Sportingbet 6/10 Martin form does not look good. He is struggling almost every stage. He is a great TT specialist, but today I go with Wiggo

Konovalovas to beat Lang @ 1.4 Sportingbet 9/10 Konovalovas is a past Giro TT winner, some other great TT results. Vuelta is his first GT this season, so he should be in good form, and ready to go for it today. On the other hand Lang, also good TT , but this is his 3rd GT this season, that is much, no good results this season + a long breakaway yesterday wich costed him a lot of energy. If he had hopes for a good TT results, he would have not attack yesterday, but saved energy for today. Good bet for me.

Another story is the weather it could be windy today. The time gaps beetwen riders starting, are quite big, so if the wind changes his strength or direction during the TT it could have some massive impact on the results.

[Zebra$]

TT time!! The most interesting stages in small or big Tours.

Phinney over Klöden (1.481 @Pina - 9/10): Phinney is 200% focussed on this TT, this 21 year old is already World en Olympic champion on the track. He saved as much energy as possible the last days. As you can read here in his blog. Klöden crashed out of the TdF and is here mainly to help Brajkovic and Zubeldia

Machado over Barredo (1.671 @Pina - 7/10): Machado is the better TT man, and he is also performing a lot better in this Vuelta then Barredo. Can be expected that Barredo doesnt go full gas since he is already 50 minutes behind in GC.

Followed your bets so GL and please update after it's finsihed.
Tnx

[Badeend]

The Phinney bet is won. He is just 6 seconds slower then Cancellara at the finish, this man rules . Kloden is still doing his TT but after 13km he already lost 1 minute and 40 seconds.

Barredo and Machado still need to start.

[sucotash]

Konovalovas - Lang bet won. Lets see how Wigins will do.

[Badeend]

Followed your bets so GL and please update after it's finsihed.
Tnx

Two pretty easy wins. Barredo did go full, but even then he doesnt come close to someone like Machado

5 PHINNEY, Taylor BMC + 1' 33''
132 KLÖDEN, Andreas RSH + 7' 10''

7 MACHADO, Tiago RSH + 1' 54''
28 BARREDO, Carlos RAB + 3' 22''

[Zebra$]

Tnx brou, well done

[Cycling_Tipster]

VUELTA - Stage 11

Poels > Taaramae @1.85 Pinnacle 2.4/5 -> Without escape for Rein it's very good
Mollema > D Martin @2.45 Unibet 2.4/5 -> Dan is inconstent, so 2.45 is high!
Seeldrayers > Poels @2.3 Unibet 2.4/5
Machado > Perget @1.95 Unibet 2.1/5 -> Machado increase with a good TT
Cobo > Menchov @2 Sportingbet 2.1/5 -> Menchov is limit on moutain
Anton > Sastre @1.85 Bet365 1.5/5 -> Tomorow, another condition (rain !?)
Nibali > Mollema @2 Bet365 1.5/5
Kruijswijk > Monfort @2 Centrebet 1.5/5
Cobo Top 3 @6 Centrebet 0.9/5 -> Cobo is certainly unpredictable, but is able to make big performance! He was very strong in Covatilla and the TT. So the odds are definitely a value!

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+1.85 U
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(Live
Moncoutié to Win @2.78 2.16/5
Moncoutié not Win @3.5 1.8/5
Vandenbroeck > Menchov @1.72 3/5)

[IGUANA]

VUELTA - Stage 11

Poels > Taaramae @1.85 Pinnacle 2.4/5
Mollema > D Martin @2.45 Unibet 2.4/5
Seeldrayers > Poels @2.3 Unibet 2.4/5
Machado > Perget @1.95 Unibet 2.1/5
Cobo > Menchov @2 Sportingbet 2.1/5
Anton > Sastre @1.85 Bet365 1.5/5
Nibali > Mollema @2 Bet365 1.5/5
Kruijswijk > Monfort @2 Centrebet 1.5/5

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