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Old 03-09-17, 15:58   #31
Underdogchance
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Projected Lines and Picks - Sunday 3/9/2017

PITTSBUGH vs CINCINNATI

Cincinnati and Pittsburgh will play the last game today and it looks like, that majority of bettors will take Pittsburgh. Odds also dropped on them, but I think this game will be much closer. Also my betting model has different projected odds and winning percentages.

Bookmakers set Cincinnati as an underdog of around 2.25. With that they give them less than 50% of chance to win this game. My projected odds on Cincinnati are 56.46% and because of that my fair odds on them are 1.77. With 2.25 I have a value on Cincinnati.

Cincinnati will start with Romano, who has 2 wins and his team has 3 straight wins in last 3 games. He is also pitching better right now.
On the other side we have Williams, that is not playing that well right now and I think this is the worst time this season for him. ERA of 5.62 in last 3 starts with 9 walks compared to 12 strike outs.

Cincinnati is also better overall team, with better offense and better bullpen. They score 5 runs/game versus right handed pitchers compared to Pittsburgh, who scores only 4.2. Cincinnati score 4.8 runs/game on the road compared to Pittsburg, that scores only 4.2 at home (game will be played in Pittsburgh).

Note also, that important player for Pittsburgh (Harrison) was injured yesterday and will not play today.

Play Cincinnati at 2.12
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Old 04-09-17, 16:51   #32
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MLB Projected Lines and Picks - 4/9/2017

Atlanta Braves (Dickey) vs Texas Rangers (Cashner)

Atlanta and Texas will play game one in Atlanta and the bookmakers have opened the odds for each team having 50% of chance to win this game.

I have projected, that Atlanta should have better chance to win this game. My projected win% on Atlanta is 57.78% and on Texas 42.22%. My projected odds on Atlanta are 1.73 and with the odds 1.96 I have small value with the Braves.

Atlanta will start with R.A. Dickey, who has ERA of 3.91 to the season and I rank him as average pitcher in MLB. His is also playing better recently. In last 20 innings he has 24 strike outs. He also has very good record versus Texas (3-2, ERA 2.56) and in last game last season he struck out 6 hitters in 8 innings and allowed only 3 hits against Texas.

Cashner on the other side will start for Texas and his ERA is overrated or if you like, his numbers are better than his actual pitching. In 133 innings this season he has only 69 strike outs and he lost both games last season against Atlanta. Last year in Atlanta he was changed after two innings, because he allowed 7 runs.

Atlanta is coming home after 2 road series and I think they will have better pitcher on the mound, they also have slightly better bullpen and I think Texas should be an underdog here.

Play Atlanta (Dickey) @1.96 Pinnacle
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Old 05-09-17, 21:00   #33
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MLB Projected Lines and Picks - Tuesday 5/9/2017


Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) vs Minnesota (Colon)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Minnesota Twins are fighting for a wild card and they are just behind the Yankees. And if we look at their results, they were the best team in August and they are playing really well. They lost 3 of last 4 games, but two of those losses were by only 1 run. Bookmakers set Minnesota as an underdog here, but I think this could be close match and I even think, that Minnesota has better chance. Based on my model, I give them 54.90% of chance to win this game. Because of that my odds on Minnesota are 1.82 and bookmakers have them at around 2.20. Because of that I have a value with Minnesota.

Match Up
Bartolo Colon will start for Minnesota and his ERA is 6.25 to the season, in last 3 games ERA of 3.86. I rank him somewhere below league average and I don***8217;t expect some extra performance from him. He is very experienced pitcher, he will go probably go around 5-6 innings and he collected 3 straight wins right now.

On the other side we have Odorizzi, who is in little bit bigger troubles right now. His pitching is not even close to great. In last 3 games he itched only 12 innings and he walked more (12) than he struck out (9). He lost his only game against Minnesota this season, when he allowed 4 walks and struck out only 4 hitters. Minnesota hitters combined batting average of .304 in 56 at bats against him.

Minnesota is better hitting team (4.9 runs per game versus 4.3 from Tampa) and I don***8217;t see any huge advantage in bullpens.

Reason for pick
Minnesota is a team with winning record and currently I think we have better option with Colon on the mound. Odorizzi has been struggling little bit too much lately. If he will keep allowing home runs and walks, he will be in big troubles today against Minnesota. Bookmakers have Twins as an underdog and with that, they give them less than 50% of chance. I think this match will be much much closer, than most people think.

Play Minnesota (Colon) @2.31

Last edited by Underdogchance; 05-09-17 at 21:01. Reason: I forgot to add the odds
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Old 06-09-17, 16:55   #34
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Projected Lines and Picks - Wednesday 6/9/2017

BOSTON (Fister) vs TORONTO (Biagini)

Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox played a long game yesterday, when Red Sox beat them at the end, but both teams also used a lot of relievers (Toronto 6, Boston 11) and it will be interesting to see those two teams today after such a marathon yesterday.

However, bookmakers opened Toronto as a huge underdog here. You can find them at the price of 2.50 or even more. With my betting model, I have calculated, that Toronto will have 49.56% of chance to win this game. So, basically it shows, that this game is 50-50 and it could be much closer. My projected lines for this game are +101 vs -101 (2.01 vs -199).

Toronto will start with Joe Biagini, who is 2-8 to the season, but despite his ERA is not great, his SIERA suggests, that he is not pitching that bad and he could be little bit underrated here. After two bad games, he is coming to this game after one of his best performances, where he struck out 10 hitters in 7 innings against Baltimore.

Dough Fister on the other side has much better ERA, but his SIERA is not that good compared to his ERA and if we compare those two pitchers Biagini SIERA this season is better (4.01 compared to 4.54 from Fister).

Toronto’s season is over, they will not reach playoffs, but if we compare recent hitting performances by both teams, Boston is not playing well recently. They score 3.3 runs/game in last 7 games. Toronto 5 runs/game. Boston lost 8 of last 13 games and 3 of last 4 games. And even that win yesterday was very close after 9 innings.

I don’t see any huge pitching advantage here and after yesterday’s marathon anything can happen. I see this game more as 50-50 and because bookmakers have the odds of around 2.50 on Toronto, I think we have a value with them.

Play Toronto (Biagini) @2.60
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Old 07-09-17, 20:44   #35
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Projected Lines and Picks - 7/9/2017

Washington (Roark) vs Philadelphia (Nola)

Bookmakers line: +147 (2.47)
My Projected lines (math model): +111 (2.11)
Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals will play the first game of the series. Two things are for sure here: public will be with Washington and bookmakers have Washington as a pure favourite.

But I also projected my winning percentages for this game and my fair odds would be 2.11 for Philadelphia and 1.90 for Washington. I give around 47.45% of chance for Philadelphia and there are couple of reasons for that.
First of all, Washington will not have any starting pitching advantage as I think, that Philadelphia will have slightly better pitcher on the mound with Nola. And when we check both games this season, that he went against Washington, he did pretty well. 11 innings, 13 strike outs and 1-1 record.
On the other side Washington will start with Roark, who has negative home record of 4–6 and ERA 5.05. He lost 2 of 3 games this season against Philadelphia and I think with the current form from both teams, this game could be close one.

Not also, that Philadelphia rested 3 players yesterday, who might play today, they also score 5 runs/game in last 7 games, while Washington 3.6 and of course, Washington is still missing their best player - Harper.
I still give more than 50% for Washington, but winning percentages and the value are totally different things and I think there is a value with Phillies today.

Play Philadelphia @2.47
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Old 08-09-17, 23:32   #36
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MLB Projected Lines and Picks - Friday 9/9/2017

3 UNDERDOGS

PHILADELPHIA (Thompson) +318


Bookmakers line: +318 (4.18)
My Projected lines (math model): +199 (2.99)
Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals will play the second game today and when we loot at yesterday’s game it was a close one (again) for Philadelphia. They are playing pretty good right now. Their season is over, but a lot of talented young players want to show what they got.
In last 8 games, they won 4 and 2 of the losses were by only one run. Today they will face Scherzer and there is no doubt that Washington will have huge pitching advantage, but the question is what is the fair price. And I think that 4.11 is little bit to high.
Jake Thompson pitched 4 games this season and he is just coming to this game after his best performance against Miami (6 innings, 7 strike outs). If he can keep Washington at minimum, I think at the end anything can happen.
Washington is still playing without their best player Harper and they score only 3.7 runs/game in last 7 days, compared to Philadelphia that scores 5.1. Note also, that Scherzer had some issues with calf before this game.
Because of all that, I think, that the odds are little bit too high.
Recommended Play Philadelphia
*


DETROIT (Farmer) +300


Bookmakers line: +200 (3.00)
My Projected lines (math model): +126 (2.26)
We have two teams with losing record and basically season for both teams is over. Detroit lost 8 of last 11 games and this is the same record for Toronto too.
Detroit will start with Farmer, who is 3-2 to the season and the only two wins he collected on the road, where he posted ERA of 2.25.
On the other side Stroman will play for Toronto, who is 11-6 to the season with ERA of 3.08 and I rank him higher than Farmer on the other side. But he had some injury problems since last game (elbow), when he pitched only 1 inning.
When we compare those two teams, I don’t see any hitting advantage by Toronto, in fact I have ranked Detroit higher in hitting and with all the injured players from Blue Jays (Martin, Tulowitzki, Travis, Coghlan), I think we have better hitting team with the Tigers. When we add that, both teams are strugglng, I think that the odds are little bit too high on Detroit.
I still give better chance to Toronto, but only around 55.81%, which is less than bookmakers and because of that, there is some value with Tigers today.
Recommended Play Detroit


TAMPA BAY (Archer) +120


Bookmakers line: +120 (2.20)
My Projected lines (math model): -126 (1.79)
Tampa Bay Rays are playing for the playoffs and the Boston leads AL League East. So we can expect really good game. Tampa Bay will go with Chris Archer, who is 2-11 in his career against Boston, but he beat Boston in both games this season.
I rank Archer higher than Pomeranz on the other side and I think that Tampa Bay will have starting pitching advantage. Archer left the last game with small injury (forearm), and we can add this into account too before making this bet, but I still like him, because he is top pitcher in MLB and has 225 strike outs in 179 innings. He was just outstanding before that last game, when he beat Toronto and St Louis (18 strike outs in 13 innings).
Drew Pomeranz on the other side has a great season too and because he is playing for one of the best teams in MLB, he has really good record too (14-5). However, I am not impressed by his pitching lately. Whip 1.681, 11 walks in 18 innings and his SIERA is 4.77 compared to 2.62 by Archer.
With Tampa Bay we have better pitcher, who is playing great this season and who already beat Boston in both games in 2017. I have projected, that Tampa Bay will have little bit more than 50% of chance in this game and Drew Pomeranz is not pitching that well right now. Because of that, I think Tampa Bay as an underdog is a right play.

3 FAVS

ST LOUIS (Weaver) -190


Bookmakers line: -190 (2.20)
My Projected lines (math model): -282 (1.36)
Pittsburgh is going to face St Louis who will start with Luke Weaver. Weaver has been outstanding this season and holds the record of 4-1 in 5 games. But even more impressive than his record is that he struck out 42 batters in 31 innings. If he would struck out one more batter in the last game against San Francisco, he would have 3 consecutive games with 10 strike outs.
Pittsburgh on the other side will start with Williams, who is 5-6 to the season and his road ERA is 4.72. He played two games in his career against St Louis and both games were in 2017 (the last 18.august) and they hit him hard (17 hits, 3 home runs, 10 ER in 8 innings).
Note also, that Carpenter and Phan are in the lineup for St Louis, while Mccutchen is out of today7s lineup for Pittsburgh. I have projected, that St Louis will have ore than 70% of chance to win this game and I think that Pittsburgh will have tough time here.
*

*

CLEVELAND (Clevinger) -155


Bookmakers line: -155 (1.65)
My Projected lines (math model): -184 (1.54)
Cleveland Indians just won 14 straight games. This is one of the most impressive streaks that I have seen. They are red hot and of course, there will be a lot of speculations, when this streak will end and so on.... but I don't want to be distracted by this. I will just keep analysing the games and try to find the value. And with today's game, I think we have a value.
First of all, Cleveland will have better pitcher on the mound. Clevinger is 8-4 to the season with ERA of 3.18. He was outstanding in last games and he also beat Baltimore in his only game this season against them.
Baltimore on the other side will start with Miley, who is 8-14 to the season with ERA of 4.91 and his ERA on the road is even bigger (5.19). But what I also like about Indians pick here is that they hit him hard in the past. He lost the last game against Cleveland and his record is 1-2 versus Cleveland Indians with ERA of 5.03 and whip 1.983.
Jose Ramirez is out for Cleveland today, but I still think, that Cleveland is much better team even without Ramirez. Better pitcher on the mound, better bullpen and better hitting team. I have projected that Indians should be at around -184 and with -155, there is some value for sure.
*


NY METS (Lugo) -105


Bookmakers line: -105 (1.95)
My Projected lines (math model): -100 (2.00)
I think the odds are pretty fair, but this pick is more gut play for me than anything else. Cincinnati and NY Mets are out of the playoffs this season and they will just play for their fans until the end of the season. I expect, that Cincinnati will play much better at home, where they score a lot of runs in a hitters friendly ballpark. I also expect, that they will struggle little bit until the end of the season on the road.*
On the other side NY Mets just won 3 out of last 4 games and I expect, that they will try to show some good effort in front of home fans.*
And when we compare those two pitchers today, I think that Mets will have nice pitching advantage. Garrett is not playing well, his season ERA is 7.40. He pitched the last game in june and he is back right now. 29 walks in 58 innings is not good.*
On the other side Mets will start with Lugo, who is pretty solid and I have ranked him above league average this season. His SIERA in last 30 days is 3.61, which is good.*
Note also, that Mets have better bullpen and that they have very good record against Cincinnati. 15-2 last three seasons and 7-0 at home in last 3 seasons.
Play Mets as a small favourite.*
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Old 09-09-17, 18:51   #37
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MLB Projected Lines and Picks - 9/9/2017

Kansas City Royals (Junis) vs Minnesota Twins (Berrios)

Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins are fighting for playoffs and despite Kansas has losing record (69-71), they still have more than realistic chances to reach wild card. And this game is one of those, that they must win.

I don’t like to bet based on such things like “must win”, because most profitable betting for me is analytics, that I use, but sometimes I use also mu gut to make recomendations. And this is one of those games, where my model doesn’t support Kansas play.

I have projected, that Kansas will have around 45.49% of chance to win this game, which is less than 50% and bookmakers have them set as a small underdog.

But still I like couple of things here. Minnesota beat Kansas yesterday and they are on the second wild card spot and if hunting wild card position was easy for them, I think holding this position will put them into totally different position. But if we check the record of teams, that are fighting for AL wild card, Minnesota has 74 wins and Kansas 69. So there is 5 game difference. Note also, that there are also 5 other teams with 69-72 wins, that will attack Minnesota and there will be some pressure for sure on them.

Minnesota will start with Berrios, who 12-7 to the season with ERA of 4.01. But there are two things, that are going against him. He is just 4-6 on the road and his road ERA is 5.43 (lower = better). The second thing is his bad record against Kansas. He played 4 games against Kansas and his team lost all for games. His ERA in those games is 8.19. And those games were in 2016 and the last in 2017, where he allowed 5 runs/9 hits in 5 innings.

On the other side we have Junis, who will pitch for Kansas and he has very solid season (5-2, ERA 4.71, whip 1.24) and he didn’t lost home game yet (5 games, 2-0 record).

I like Minnesota how they play and they are definitely one of the most underrated teams this season (74-67 +10.6 units), but I think that Kansas will step up in this one. Minnesota will not have any pitching advantage and if I take into account Berrios’s bad history playing against Kanas, I think Kansas is a good play.

Play Kansas at 2.03
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Old 10-09-17, 10:33   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Underdogchance View Post
MLB Projected Lines and Picks - 9/9/2017

Kansas City Royals (Junis) vs Minnesota Twins (Berrios)

Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins are fighting for playoffs and despite Kansas has losing record (69-71), they still have more than realistic chances to reach wild card. And this game is one of those, that they must win.

I don’t like to bet based on such things like “must win”, because most profitable betting for me is analytics, that I use, but sometimes I use also mu gut to make recomendations. And this is one of those games, where my model doesn’t support Kansas play.

I have projected, that Kansas will have around 45.49% of chance to win this game, which is less than 50% and bookmakers have them set as a small underdog.

But still I like couple of things here. Minnesota beat Kansas yesterday and they are on the second wild card spot and if hunting wild card position was easy for them, I think holding this position will put them into totally different position. But if we check the record of teams, that are fighting for AL wild card, Minnesota has 74 wins and Kansas 69. So there is 5 game difference. Note also, that there are also 5 other teams with 69-72 wins, that will attack Minnesota and there will be some pressure for sure on them.

Minnesota will start with Berrios, who 12-7 to the season with ERA of 4.01. But there are two things, that are going against him. He is just 4-6 on the road and his road ERA is 5.43 (lower = better). The second thing is his bad record against Kansas. He played 4 games against Kansas and his team lost all for games. His ERA in those games is 8.19. And those games were in 2016 and the last in 2017, where he allowed 5 runs/9 hits in 5 innings.

On the other side we have Junis, who will pitch for Kansas and he has very solid season (5-2, ERA 4.71, whip 1.24) and he didn’t lost home game yet (5 games, 2-0 record).

I like Minnesota how they play and they are definitely one of the most underrated teams this season (74-67 +10.6 units), but I think that Kansas will step up in this one. Minnesota will not have any pitching advantage and if I take into account Berrios’s bad history playing against Kanas, I think Kansas is a good play.

Play Kansas at 2.03
Thanks for the play man! Great one!
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Old 13-09-17, 20:08   #39
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MLB Projected Lines (+ some NFL lines) - Wednesday 13/9/2017

BOSTON vs OAKLAND

* Bookmakers line: +176 (2.76)
* My Projected lines (math model): +109 (2.09)
Oakland Athletics lost yesterday by 11-1 and this is the only loss in last 6 games. They are playing really good, especialy offensively. They score more than 7 runs per game in last seven games and this is way above league average.
They will start with Cotton, who is 4-4 on the road with ERA 3.81 and has never faced Boston.
Boston on the other side is playing well too, after all they are one of the best teams this season and they score 6.1 runs per game in last 7 games.
They will start with Doug Fister, who is 5-5 to the season with ERA of 4.64, but he also has losing home record of 4-6 and ERA of 4.64.
I have projected, that Boston will have better chance to win this game (52.2%), but I also think, that Oakland is underrated here. They are score a lot of runs (in last 3 wins, they scored at least 10 runs in each of these games) and I also think, that they will have a chance against pitcher who has losing record this season at Fenway Park.

Play Oakland (Cotton) @2.76
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Old 04-10-17, 21:40   #40
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ARIZONA vs COLORADO (NL Wild Card Game)


* Bookmakers line: +165 (2.65)
* My Projected lines (math model): +145 (2.45)
Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies will play a wild card game and the bookmakers set the odds around +155 on Colorado, the odds dropped at the start and right now, when the game is close to start the odds went up again and there is a small value with Colorado. At least based on my model.
Colorado will start with Gray, who won 2 of last 3 games versus Arizona and he pitched really well in last couple of games. ERA 2.12, 20 strike outs in last 17 innings and i think he is the right pitcher for this game. Not only, that he pitched well twice this season in Arizona, he also struck 10 Arizona hitters in those two games on the road.
Greinke in the other has a very good season with the record of 17-7, but he also lost 2 out of last 3 games versus Colorado and in last couple of games he was not that sharp (last 3 games ERA 5.62). Of course, I believe he will be at his best, but still I don***8217;t see such a big difference between today***8217;s starters. I rank them both pretty equally.
When we talk about the hitting, Colorado scores 4.9 runs/game versus right handed pitchers. Arizona scores 4.9 runs/game versus right handed pitchers. Colorado OBP 0.335, Arizona 0.326. Colorado.
When we talk about bullpens, I also rank both bullpens pretty same.
What I want to say is that we have pretty equal match up everywhere and I think this game could be really close one. There is no speculations and both teams will give their 100% effort. And if we talk about injuries, Arizona is still missing Ahmed, Owings and couple of other players, while Colorado doesn***8217;t have any important injuries.
I still think, that Arizona should be favourite here, but I still give more chances to Colorado, than bookmakers.

Play Colorado (Gray)
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