Germany Lower Leagues, 20/22 april

[buffalo_rill]

[emoji768]Regionalliga Bayern
~20april, h18,30
— Garching vs Unterföhring
***8594; 1 ah-1
@dd ¦ 1,80 (Marathon)
Stake medium/low

Derby among the 'poor' in the north of Munich between Garching and Unterföhring.
But while the guests have long been at the end, relegated and have given up renewing the license for the Regionalliga, the hosts can finally seal the permanence in the category .. and what better opportunity than this, in a derby and in front of their fans?
Already in the first leg the Garching tore up the rivals with 5 networks .. just like those taken in the last exit from
Unterföhring!
Perhaps the players of the rear are also yielding morally even if .... a derby is always a derby!
And it will also be a challenge in the family between the Kelmendi brothers, defenders of their respective clubs.
In short Garching is a team with perspectives, it is respected at home, Unterföhring sadly salutes the category, the victory at home with hand-1 (reimbursement in case of a measurement victory) has a decent share.
Moderate Stake, these minor categories are often unreliable ...

https://www.tz.de/sport/amateure/kelmendi-brueder-doppel-interview-duell-garching-9796790.html

Inviato dal mio ASUS_Z00VD utilizzando Tapatalk

[Azure]

Meppen - Lotte (3.Liga; Fri, 20.04.18, 19:00)
Both teams are safe (Chemnitz will lose some points due to insolvency, so Lotte has no worries anymore). Meppen already showing signs of "holiday mode" in last games: playing for win (even when outnumbered) but sometimes losing focus in defense. Topscorer Girth and captain Wagner should be able to return at least on bench here, so coach Neidhart got some more offensive options. Domaschke (gk) is suspended. Granatowski (most assists!) and in-form Tankulic surely gonna be really motivated to win this game vs their former club. - Lotte ended the losing run just in time to stay clear of the red zone. They are undefeated for 4 games in 3.Liga, but lost the regional cup semifinal two weeks ago vs 4th division opponent. And club officials definitely were not amused about that (to put it mildly)! Maybe there will be another coach change at Lotte at seasonend (would be the fourth within a year lol). Attacker Freiberger is back from injury. - I expect both teams to play rather offensively and with not too much aggression in defense. Perhaps Meppen is more likely to win than odds suggest, but I settle for the over here. It already dropped but I still like it.
Over 2,5 @1,95 sbo (3/10)

[Sev]

Easy one, thank you Azure!

[petarz]

Does anybody know why odds on FSV Frankfurt versus Elversberg are this high?

[Azure]

Würzburg - Chemnitz (3.Liga; Sat, 21.04.2018, 14:00)
Würzburg would play for promotion now if it wasn't for that desaster seasonstart. But of course that huge squad turnover after relegating down from 2.BL last summer wasn't helpful and all those new signings needed time to gel. They've been the worst team after 14 rounds, but managed to improve a lot with coach Schiele and got same amount of points as Magdeburg and KSC from round 15 on. Hosts are undefeated for 10 games at "Dallenberg", where they didn't concede for 315 minutes. - CFC will relegate. They are bankrupt, so even if they could catch up with Osnabrück or Zwickau, it wouldn't help because DFB will deduct some points. Motivation will be a huge problem now and additionally the squad is depleted by injuries and suspensions: only 17 players are available. - Kickers in good form, with excellent defense and only few missings welcome relegated Chemnitz with lots of squad worries, who conceded 2+ goals in 21 of 34 games so far this season. Würzburg won the awaygame at Chemnitz 3:0 last November.
Würzburg -1,25 @2,03 pin (2/10)

[_canary_]

Hi Azure, do you think that backing a handi on Minchen 1860 is good idea. They can seal a promotion today if I'm nor wrong

[Azure]

Magdeburg - Fortuna Köln (3.Liga; Sat, 21.04.18, 14:00)
FCM did walk over Jena last Tuesday (5:1), prolonging the undefeated run to 8 games and now are ready to celebrate promotion with a win in front of 25k fans in sold out stadium. - Fortuna Köln was near promotion ranks till mid March, but then they collapsed, losing last 5 games in a row. Even rank 4, which qualifies for next season's DFB Cup, is pretty much out of sight, so they have to focus on winning the regional cup (semifinal vs local rival Viktoria is scheduled for 08.05.). Coach Koschinat was mightly pissed after the 2:4 defeat vs Münster last Saturday and demands better focus from his players in remaining games, but I doubt they can motivate themselves enough to resist homestrong Magdeburg in this situation.
Magdeburg -1,25 @2,00 sbo (2/10)

.

Hi Azure, do you think that backing a handi on Minchen 1860 is good idea. They can seal a promotion today if I'm nor wrong

They could seal promotion, but only if Bayern II does not win at Schalding. I skip this game. Of course 1860 can win by higher margin, but I don't feel comfortable enough about it to back them here.

[Azure]

Rehden - Eutin (RL North; Sat, 21.04.18, 16:00)
I already wrote about Rehden last Wednesday. Same applies today. The team is in good mood, plays offensive football, creates chances and scores. - Hopes of Eutin are getting smaller and smaller with every round, especially because they already played 28 games while all other competitors in the basement still got postponed games in hand. Eutin got best attack of lower-ranked teams, but also the worst defense of the league. They conceded 2+ goals in 10 of 13 roadgames. - It's the final game of an 8-game-marathon in 21 days for Rehden. After this they finally have no midweek game and can recharge the batteries for a week. Eutin on the other hand is well-rested. Rehden won the awaygame at Eutin 3:1 last Oct and it actually could've been 6:2 instead! I'm staying on the highscoring bandwagon with Rehden. And a team with offensive qualities + such leaky defense as Eutin should help to get some goals on the scoreboard in this matchup.
Over 3,0 @1,87 sbo (4/10)

[Azure]

Stupid Rehden and Eutin unable to get the ball in the net more than twice despite good chances.
Well... finally losing some bets after winning 10 posted picks in a row.
But lets try not to get used to it

Münster - Halle (3.Liga; Sun, 22.04.18, 14:00)
Münster improved a lot since coach Antwerpen took the helm at winterbreak. They are undefeated for 7 homegames (kept 5 clean sheets!), Kobylanski+Grimaldi are in good form in offense and the team seems to be still fully focussed. No new missings except for suspended Menig (rdf). - Halle just ended a successful run with the 1:3 defeat vs Würzburg last week, but opponents before that have been mostly poor or out of form. HFC only rarely prevails when facing the teams from upper tablehalf. The club already announced that many players and the coach will (have to) leave at seasonend, so motivation is a bit of a questionmark. Baumgärtel (ldf) is suspended. - Münster more convincing in last weeks, wants to keep the good homerun going and likely to have a bit of a motivational edge over visitors, who might not work their socks off in a meaningless awaygame, esp when some of guys in starting lineup got no future in the club anymore. Odds above even for Münster homewin are valuable in my book.
Münster -0,5 @2,14 sbo (3/10)

[Azure]

Uerdingen - Düsseldorf II (RL West; Sun, 24.04.18, 14:00)
Russian-powered Uerdingen is on a rise. They got very good players for this level and that gets finally visible on the pitch after coach change. With Krämer in charge, they won 6 of 7 games, all by at least 2-goal-margin (the only draw vs other heavyweight Viktoria)! No time to rest though, because Viktoria is only 2 points below and still got better goal diff. - Düsseldorf II changed the coach as well. However, it didn't have such positive effects: actually they are still winless under Langeneke (0-1-3, 4:10), dropping very near relegation ranks now. - Backing such Uerdingen handicap would've been totally insane under previous coach, but now it makes sense. The team is able to show its true potential and a defense of Düsseldorf quality could find itself in serious trouble today.
Uerdingen -1,75 @1,85 pin (2/10)

[Azure]

Well, that was no fun at all.
Awful Sunday.

Münster - Halle 1:2
Deserved defeat in the end. Motivation opposite to what I expected. HFC more willing to fight and win, could've scored more goals. -0,5 lost.

Uerdingen - Düsseldorf II 1:0
Uerdingen superior in 1st half but unefficient (hit post + scored offside goal). Unfortunately they did sit back too much in 2nd half and just controlled the game vs harmless opponent instead of going for another goal. -1,75 lost.

[footballcasuals]

Azure What about Wehen? They still fighting for promotor, 4 lost in row. Next mach against Zwickau who play for nothing. Must win situation for Wehen if they want....

[Azure]

Last 4 Wehen games:
- 0:2 vs Würzburg: Wehen didn't play really bad, opponent was just better at this day.
- 0:1 at Münster: balanced game in first half till Wehen outnumbered, then opponent better and took lead; Wehen at least on eyelevel in second half and with chances for equalizer but poor efficiency; Wehen had to play last 10 minutes with only 9 men after another red card.
- 1:2 vs Magdeburg: Wehen slightly worse team vs really strong FCM; they even had chance for late equalizer but again poor efficiency...
- 0:2 at Rostock: undeserved defeat; Wehen better team almost complete 90 minutes but totally unefficient while Rostock scored.

Overall that sounds like some bad luck was involved. Additionally Wehen had several, various missings of regulars/keyplayers during those games. And unfortunately it might stay like that: Andrich is def still suspended for next game while topscorer Schäffler (20 goals) is at least very doubtful.

Sure, Zwickau has nothing to play for anymore and looks like easier task on paper than last rounds' opponents. But backing -1,25 at rather low odds on a team which scored only 1 goal in last 4 games, has really bad efficiency right now, might still be w/o best scorer and lost all the momentum they had at end of March...? Don't know. Guess I need to wait for more (positive) info to find that interesting enough to pull the trigger.