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Old 07-09-17, 21:16   #1
dus@n
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Default Afro Basket 2017

Senegal vs South Africa @20:30 CET

I really do not know where to start from writing this analyse but I will try to write only important things, being as much short as possible. The main thing here to write here is that bookies have made error, missing the line for 10-15 points!!!

Senegal has been preparing for this AfroBasket very seriously as they are home team of group stages in Dakar and they have prepared by meeting Spain - the best team in Europe. Spain has won by 80-69 only, althaught Senegal played without the best player, Dieng!

http://www.feb.es/Documentos/Archivo...1a_senegal.pdf

After that, Senegal has beaten CentroAfric Republic by 103-50 (+53), as well as Mali by 76-45 (+31) and we need to know both those teams (CentroAfric and Mali) are class above this South Africa.

Senegal has hardly had ever better team in their history, and their players like Hannah (new Murcia player), Ndoye, Mendy, Faye, Ndour, Dieng, Ndiaye, Ndong are world class players for all teams here. Two NBA players while others are just uncomparable to others. They are the best team on AfroBasket 2017 and they are clearly aiming the gold title which they should win IMO.


On the other side we have South Africa who HAD NO PREPARATIONS for this tournament. The reason is - MONEY. Here you can read about it:

http://mybasketball.co.za/2017/08/ro...-existent-yet/

So, this team had 0 preparation matches, but they also had 0 preparing trainings, coaches didnt work with the players, players didnt work together with each other but individual with their local clubs etc... They still didnt arrive in Dakar. They had crazy funny qualifications for this AfroBasket, where they were in group with Angola and Zambia, losin gto Angola by -36 and -31 (Angola is class below Senegal right now), and after that South Africa played H2H against ZIMBABWE to decide which team goes to AfroBasket.

http://www.fiba.basketball/afrobaske...ps#tab=round_9

Africa won first match by +7, lost 2nd one by -2 so they had +5 against Zimbabwe What is interesting here? It is interesting that South Africa was -20 pts ind match against Zimbabwe but they came back somehow!

Africa didnt even play in last AfroBasket, didnt play also in 2013, while from 2005 to 2011 they played all 4x times, winning 12th,13th,15th and 14th place.


ALL IN ALL... We have enormous quality difference here - Senegal is the best team here, with the best team in their history, with few NBA players, with friendly matches results like 69:80 against Spain without Dieng, the best player, with beating Mali +31 and CAR +50 which are both better teams than this South Africa, which didnt participate on AfroBasket last 4 years. Africa secured this AfroBasket by having tight matches against Zimbabwe which is just funny. It is impossible for me to see this one going in less than 45-50 pts difference here as every minute with any players on the court will make the difference just bigger. I expected to see this line going on -40 or -45 and even then I would take Senegal most probably. Africa will very hardly score more than 40,45 points here while Senegal will be on 90 at least. My call is 95-45 for Senegal. HT handicap also takeable

Senegal -31

Last edited by dus@n; 08-09-17 at 21:30.
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Old 07-09-17, 21:49   #2
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Why so early Dusan!!! It's still early market...!

PS: Xane D'Almeida is out for the tournament.

EDIT: now it's -41 on Pinny, and still early market limits...

Last edited by FJB; 07-09-17 at 21:57.
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Old 07-09-17, 22:01   #3
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The line was opened on -27 on 80 euros limits. At the time of posting, Pinnacle limits were 450 euros while maximum are 850 while bet365 limits were the same more or less. The value is huge so I had to post it tonight before the line would be destroyed, in the morning it would be too late. Sometimes you need to be fast in order to catch the value. Posting tips on 450 euros limits when full limits will be 850 is not called early market.
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Old 07-09-17, 22:23   #4
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Never ever a line that's not early market will move from -31 to -41 in only 40 minutes....

Your destroyed the market, congrats.
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Old 07-09-17, 22:26   #5
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Nothing new, year after year
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Old 07-09-17, 22:29   #6
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The Senegal is having no problems with S. Africa, everything under 45-50 in Point difference is a suprise.
On the one hand, we have the African Powerhouse (Sengegal) with lots of Player in european Leagues, on the other Hand we have a developing country in Basketball with S. Africa.
Homeground gives also a huge boost for Senegal.

My FT-Result: 110-55

-39,5 still nice to take

may not be a low Handicap, but we talk about S. Africa, who are not competetive to The Senegal.
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Old 07-09-17, 22:59   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FJB View Post
Never ever a line that's not early market will move from -31 to -41 in only 40 minutes....

Your destroyed the market, congrats.
It will always move when there is error in opening line like in this match. It was only quetion of time when bookies will realize that

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dimitri View Post
Nothing new, year after year
It is the final time for you to offer something to this society rather than trying to be clever every time. Nothing new, yes, but from you - only child posts without any element of IQ in them.

If you think this forum will respect that and allow that - you are wrong. This was the case for many years and months, but right now - no, trust me. If you continue this way - you will have to find another form to share your intellect and knowledge of being quality bot. All posts and people behaving like you will be permanently banned without even warning, as you are the only and direct reason why this forum was in knock-down for years. The things are changing on better from now on and new quality tipsters and people on Eurobasket topic are the confirmation of that. For sure, you wont stop it

Last edited by dus@n; 07-09-17 at 23:04.
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Old 07-09-17, 23:03   #8
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True but u think about your stats, if not u just bet your bet and chill to tomorrow..to all can bet..but yes will be 50 points...
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Old 08-09-17, 07:37   #9
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delete

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Old 08-09-17, 10:06   #10
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dusan, tnx, mate, for info. regretfully, missed Yr post, that`s why me see seneg - 42.
would be happy to receive emails from basket section tips, but guess it is not possible for technical reasons
anyway, tnx, gl
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Old 08-09-17, 12:03   #11
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guys what do u think about CONGO and MALI? why odds on mali dropped? i heard congo has young star Myck Kabongo who has spent the past few summer leagues trying to make it to the NBA.
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Old 08-09-17, 12:04   #12
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Yep,have few more solid,should be good under the rim,but no clue small on Kongo
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Old 08-09-17, 12:48   #13
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i bet 300 on +2,5 mali, for now lookin ok mali playin better, but they missed like 15 3s xd
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Old 08-09-17, 13:53   #14
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What a match Congo vs Mali is The match going into overtime after Mali was leading for 39 minutes

Congo had 10 seconds for last attack on draw result, missing the shoot, making the foul and Mali missing both free-throws 2 seconds until the end
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Old 08-09-17, 14:08   #15
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I am leaning towards CAF.They have few names in rooster,the most known forward Kouguere.
Marrocans change nothing,with same rooster from AC 2015,played bad in friendlies.
They won at AC 2015 CAF with 12 points,making difference in 2nd half.
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Old 08-09-17, 16:27   #16
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Senegal match did not start yet, so I'm posting this regardless of final result, pick won or lost.
Dusan, thank you for sharing betting opportunities, especially with those guys who rarely bet more than 20 euro. They want their share of winnings too.
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Old 08-09-17, 19:55   #17
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Live 16:12

Africa +40.5

Senegal play very loosely. Friendly match.

p.s 83:44

Last edited by Basket34; 08-09-17 at 22:14.
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Old 14-09-17, 12:36   #18
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I believe there is no reason to explain this bet very long - Senegal didnt have any hard match in group stage destroying all 3 teams by 30 pts difference (Egypt, Mozambique, South Africa) and they are very fresh but at the same time ready as all players had their minute. With Dieng, Ndoye, Faye, Ndour, Hannah they are class above all teams. I am shocked to see bookies rating Tunisia as slight favourite compared to Senegal but the only reason could be home court for Tunisia, but there are even solid chances that Tunisia wont be in the final as they are without their main players here. Even if they do, Senegal is clear favourite there as they have huge class quality players on much higher level than Afrobasket.*

Senegal OUTRIGHT winner
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Old 14-09-17, 12:39   #19
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Senegal vs Angola @21:30 CET

Already explained this bet in my previews one on Senegal as outright winner - they are class above all teams with NBA player Dieng, with Ndoye, Hannah, Faye etc. Angola had awful performances in group - they almot lost to Guanda, losing by -20 in 2/4, winning in overtime eventually, being on one step from not going to next phase *but they beat CAF in 3rd match so they proceed. Now, they meet Senegal and for me there is no chance for this match to finish below 10 pts difference.

Senegal -9.5
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Old 15-09-17, 21:49   #20
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delete

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Old 15-09-17, 22:21   #21
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Senegal win afrobasket ? Hahaha joke team
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